2025年 上海房地产 市场回顾 CBRE 科技与金融推动办公楼去化 户外运动与韩国潮牌积极拓展 仓储物流需求创新高 2025年上海经济运行平稳,三大先导产业快速增长,外贸和 消费持续回暖。办公楼TMT引领新增需求,全年净吸纳量同 比增长显韧性。零售市场户外运动和韩国潮牌表现活跃,礼品 文创和玩具品类成为持续增长的亮点。仓储物流全年净吸纳创 历史新高,空置率同比下降。商务园区办公楼新增供应集中释 放,科技与消费品行业推动市场去化近半。投资市场交易活跃 度稳步修复,机构投资者领跑市场。 CBRE世邦魏理仕中国区研究部资深董事 陆燕 2025年，上海办公楼市场共录得11个新项目交付，总体量达到79.2万平方米。在持续高供应与市场压 力的背景下，新项目整体平均预租率不足10%，导致全市空置率同比上升1.2个百分点至23.3%。尽管 需求复苏速度缓慢，但呈现逐季递增的趋势。下半年，随着企业搬迁和扩租活动的明显增多，全年净吸 纳量累计达到约39万平方米，同比增长76.6%。 从行业需求结构来看，TMT行业今年超越金融业位居首位，占比达20%。游戏、电商及人工智能企业 成为其主要增量来源，如字节跳动在五角场的新租成为年度 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 07 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月预览：顺差仍对 GDP 形成支撑 概览：我们预计 12 月内需偏弱但出口韧性犹存，四季度实际 GDP 同比小幅 回落至 4.5%左右，全年实际 GDP 增速录得 5%左右，而部分工业品价格企 稳回升推动名义 GDP 增速有望较三季度边际改善。外需方面，我们预计关 税扰动减轻叠加全球周期性改善，12 月出口同比有望继续回升。但内需层面 消费与投资修复动能预计仍然不足；信贷与社融或同比少增，高基数下 2025 年四季度广义财政支出收缩。向前看，需重点关注今年一季度财政扩张力度 及其对"十五五"实现开门红的支撑效果。 风险提示：地产周期下行拖累内需，关税影响超预期对全球贸易形成冲击。 研报发布日期：2026-01-06 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 固定收益：元旦出行 ...

在启动征求意见一个月后，2025年12月31日，中国证监会印发相关公告，商业不动产REITs试点稳 步启航；同日，沪深交易所修订发布了《公开募集不动产投资信托基金（REITs）业务办法（试行）》 （以下简称《不动产基金业务办法》），并完善了相关配套业务指引及指南。 据了解，沪深交易所前期已开展了规则修订、技术系统开发、项目培育等准备工作。"此次修订发 布，沪深交易所分别形成了'1+7+4''1+7+6' REITs规则指南框架，即1项业务办法、7项业务指引和4项、 6项业务指南，有效夯实商业不动产REITs制度基础，健全市场功能，保障商业不动产REITs试点平稳起 步。同时，有助于推动REITs市场高质量发展，增强多层次资本市场服务实体经济质效。"业内人士表 示。 业内人士普遍认为，商业不动产REITs的适时推出，将更好发挥REITs功能作用，支持构建房地产 发展新模式，进一步提升多层次资本市场服务实体经济的质效。 同时，在多项指引修订、制定过程中，对审核、发售、扩募及新购入不动产重点领域业务规则进行 优化完善。首先是修订了《审核关注事项指引》，聚焦重大性、关键性，优化资产合规性、回收资金用 途、收益率要求， ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】新股涨幅与网下打新参与度维持"双高"——打新市场跟踪月报20260105 2025年12月共18只新股上市，募资超300亿元；25年全年共114只新股上市，募资1305亿元。12月新股涨幅与网 下打新参与度维持"双高"，主板和双创板块新股首日平均涨幅分别为214%和296%，初步询价配售对象分别为 主板9094家、双创板块8158家。5亿规模账户12月/2025年打新收益率约为A类：0.91%/2.63%，B类 0.37%/1.77%。 （祁嫣然/陈颖） 2026-01-06 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【固收】为何央行只购入500亿国债？——2026年1月6日利率债观察 人民银行公布了2025年12月中央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expansion of China's public REITs market into the commercial real estate sector, marking a significant shift towards a dual development phase alongside infrastructure REITs, effective from December 31, 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has established a "1+3+N" policy framework for commercial real estate REITs, which includes one announcement, three notifications, and 17 supporting rules from various financial institutions [3]. - The new rules aim to enhance the adaptability and inclusiveness of the regulatory framework while ensuring strict management and compliance [3][4]. Group 2: Market Development Strategy - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is not merely an asset type expansion but a strategic move to align with the distinct characteristics of commercial real estate and infrastructure, enhancing the overall effectiveness of REITs in capital markets [5]. - The regulatory approach will focus on a parallel development strategy for commercial real estate and infrastructure REITs, aiming to deepen the market's service to the real economy [6]. Group 3: Project Selection and Quality Control - The regulatory authorities will prioritize high-quality projects and maintain a cautious approach in the initial phase of the commercial real estate REITs pilot, emphasizing compliance and risk management [7]. - There will be a focus on core urban areas and mature commercial real estate projects, particularly those owned by listed companies, state-owned enterprises, and reputable private firms [7][8]. Group 4: Responsibilities of Intermediaries - Intermediary institutions will bear significant responsibility in the REITs process, ensuring due diligence and compliance with high standards in their operations [8]. - The regulatory framework will enforce strict oversight of the REITs approval and registration processes, promoting transparency and accountability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the official launch of commercial real estate REITs in China, highlighting the significant changes and implications for the industry [2] Group 1: Market Overview - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks a pivotal shift in the investment landscape, providing new opportunities for institutional and retail investors [2] - The total market size for commercial real estate in China is estimated to be around 10 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial potential for REITs to capture a portion of this market [2] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - New regulations have been established to govern the operation of commercial real estate REITs, aiming to enhance transparency and protect investors [2] - The regulatory framework includes requirements for asset management and disclosure, which are expected to improve investor confidence [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is anticipated to attract significant capital inflows, with projections suggesting that the market could reach 1 trillion yuan in assets under management within the next few years [2] - Investors are encouraged to explore various sectors within commercial real estate, such as office buildings, shopping malls, and logistics centers, which are expected to perform well under the new REIT structure [2] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain, including potential market volatility and the need for effective asset management strategies to ensure sustainable returns [2] - The success of commercial real estate REITs will depend on the ability to navigate these challenges while delivering value to investors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Red Star Macalline is actively pursuing the issuance of commercial real estate REITs, which is strategically significant for companies holding quality commercial properties [1] - Red Star Macalline is collaborating with relevant intermediaries to select suitable commercial real estate projects to expedite the launch of the REITs project, with plans to disclose progress in compliance with regulations [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Red Star Macalline operates 76 self-owned malls, 235 managed malls, 7 strategic cooperation malls, and 23 franchised home improvement projects, totaling 369 home improvement stores/industrial streets across 189 cities, with a total operating area of 19.36 million square meters [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate leasing industry Core Insights - The macroeconomic stability in 2025 supports the recovery of the real estate leasing industry, but cautious consumer expectations continue to pressure the operating environment [5][10] - The industry is experiencing a significant adjustment phase, with investment shrinking and sales showing initial signs of stabilization [5][10] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a focus on asset management and property operation capabilities, with a low market concentration [5][46] - Revenue growth for the industry is expected to slow in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors and market supply-demand dynamics [5][50] - The credit status of the industry remains stable, with manageable debt repayment risks [5][61] Industry Fundamentals - The real estate leasing industry is closely tied to macroeconomic performance, population growth, urbanization, and social consumption capacity [7] - The industry has shown strong correlation with economic cycles, indicating significant cyclicality [7] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies aim to stabilize the rental market and promote sustainable development through operational and service-oriented models [11][12] - The introduction of the Housing Leasing Regulations and the pilot of commercial real estate REITs are expected to enhance market structure and provide exit channels for enterprises [11][13] Industry Operating Conditions Development Investment - In the first ten months of 2025, commercial property development investment decreased by 14.7%, with commercial and office building investments showing significant declines [14][50] - The commercial property development investment completed amounted to 5210.77 billion, down 11.20% year-on-year [14] Sales Performance - Sales of commercial properties reached 3947.68 billion, a decrease of 12.30%, while office building sales were 2233.71 billion, down 9.20% [18][19] - The overall sales decline is moderating as consumer recovery expectations strengthen [18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new commercial properties is at a historical low, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in the future [20] - The market is currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with significant pressure on supply and demand balance [20] Key City Performance Beijing - Retail properties show a slight increase in vacancy rates to 7.7%, with rents declining to 30.6 yuan/sqm/day [24] - Office vacancy rates have decreased to 19.7%, but rental prices continue to decline [24] Shanghai - Retail property vacancy rates remain stable at 8.8%, with rents at 31.7 yuan/sqm/day [28] - Office vacancy rates have risen to 22.4%, with ongoing downward pressure on rents [28] Guangzhou - Retail properties maintain a vacancy rate of 7.0%, with rents declining to 21.4 yuan/sqm/day [32] - Office vacancy rates have surged to 21.6%, the highest in nearly a decade [32] Shenzhen - Retail properties exhibit resilience with a low vacancy rate of 4.6%, but rents have adjusted to 18.0 yuan/sqm/day [37] - Office vacancy rates have increased to 23.1%, indicating significant operational challenges [37] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by low concentration and intense competition, shifting towards multi-dimensional competition focused on asset management and operational capabilities [46][45] - The market is evolving with a focus on full lifecycle services and specialized operators in niche markets [46][45] Financial Performance Growth Metrics - Revenue and profit for the industry showed year-on-year growth in 2025, but growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to various economic pressures [50] - The industry has a cyclical nature, heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions [50] Leverage Levels - The leverage levels in the industry are stable, but there are risks associated with declining asset valuations [56] - The industry is expected to maintain stable leverage levels in 2026 as investment strategies become more cautious [56] Debt Servicing Capability - The industry's debt servicing ability is showing significant divergence, with overall capacity expected to weaken slightly [60] - The rental levels and occupancy rates in key segments remain under pressure, impacting long-term debt servicing capabilities [60]

Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued opinions on improving housing quality, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels [1] - The policy emphasizes the construction of quality affordable housing and the transformation of old houses into "good houses" [1] Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foundational system for real estate credit, focusing on the implementation of financial policies to support the stable development of the real estate market [3] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which will focus on generating stable cash flows through asset-backed securities [4] Regional Development - Shenzhen's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality real estate development, targeting affordable housing and improved commodity housing to address housing issues for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5] Market Trends - In 2025, land sales revenue in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with Beijing's land sales amounting to approximately 142.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8% from the previous year [6] - Four major real estate companies, including Poly Developments and China Overseas, are expected to achieve sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Company News - Vanke plans to hold a meeting to discuss the extension of a domestic bond repayment, proposing to delay the principal repayment date by one year [9] - Country Garden has set December 30, 2025, as the effective date for its debt restructuring plan, which has been approved by the Hong Kong High Court [10] - CIFI Holdings announced the successful completion of its overseas debt restructuring, reducing its debt by approximately 38 billion yuan [11] - Longfor Group reported significant progress in its domestic debt restructuring, with over 62% of its remaining bonds being addressed through various options [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector for 2026, indicating strong upward momentum for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a significant upward breakthrough in 2026, driven by improved chip structure, reduced turnover rates, and a favorable valuation environment. The sector is currently undervalued compared to its earnings potential [4]. - The insurance sector shows signs of stabilization post the interest rate switch, with premium growth expected to improve in 2026, particularly in the life insurance segment [4]. - Regulatory changes, including the completion of public fund fee reforms, are anticipated to benefit the non-bank financial sector by reducing costs for investors and enhancing market participation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,629.94 with a decline of 0.59% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 1.84%, with brokerages and insurance indices declining by 1.37% and 3.33%, respectively [8][10]. Non-Bank Financial Insights - The brokerage sector's index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.78 percentage points in 2025, with a total decline of 2.05% for the year. In contrast, major A-share indices saw significant gains [4]. - The insurance sector's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. The life insurance segment grew by 9.2% during the same period [4][31]. Investment Analysis - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming market revaluation, with a focus on the growth of new business premiums [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new rules for public real estate investment trusts (REITs), expanding financing options for commercial properties [21]. - The completion of the public fund fee reform is expected to lower overall fund costs by approximately 20%, saving investors around 51 billion yuan annually [22].