证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报（2025.9.22-9.26） 2025 年 9 月 29 日│中国内地 流动性周报 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com 欧阳琳* 研究员 +(86) 10 6321 1166 存单利率和 IRS 收益率上行 上周存单合计到期 9692.1 亿元，发行 7918.7 亿元，净融资规模-1773.4 亿 元。截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益率（1 年期 AAA）为 1.69%， 较前一周上行。本周存单单周到期规模在 1688.4 亿元左右，到期压力较前 一周减小。利率互换 ...

这组数据绝非简单的财务数字的叠加，而是A股市场生态历经五年重塑后呈现的质变图景。从"重融 资、轻回报"到"融资与回报并重"，10.6万亿元"红包"背后是政策引导、企业觉醒与投资者成熟共同构筑 的市场新生态。 ■ 矫 月 9月22日，中国证监会主席吴清在国务院新闻办公室举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发 布会上表示，"十四五"期间上市公司主动回报投资者的意识明显增强，这5年上市公司通过分红、回购 派发"红包"合计10.6万亿元，比"十三五"增长超八成，相当于同期股票IPO和再融资金额的2.07倍。 同时，投资者对回报的关注度持续提升，推动上市公司积极发布股东回报规划，且多设定高于历史均值 的最低分红率；上市公司通过"闪电式回购"传递信心，形成"企业回报—投资者认同—市场稳定"的正向 反馈。当分红成为稳定现金流、回购成为价值信号，投资者不再仅依赖股价波动获利，而是通过企业成 长分享收益，这种从"博弈价差"到"分享价值"的转变，让市场投机氛围淡化，理性生态凸显。 第一，政策生态正实现从"引导约束"向"生态塑造"跨越。 总而言之，10.6万亿元"红包"折射出A股市场生态的系统性升级。当"融资—发展—回报 ...

Key Points - Tianpu Co., Ltd. announced a suspension of trading for stock verification due to multiple instances of abnormal trading fluctuations from August 22 to September 3, with a reminder for investors about market risks [1] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation announced a share exchange ratio of 1:0.1339 for the merger with China Shipbuilding, with the stock ceasing to be listed from September 5, 2025 [2] - Chengdu Huamei reported that its 40G high-precision RF ADC chip is still in the trial production stage and has not achieved mass sales, indicating market demand uncertainty [2] - Taihe Technology's sulfide solid electrolyte project is currently in the trial production phase and has not generated sales revenue [3] - Robotech signed a contract worth approximately €946.50 million for fully automated silicon photonic packaging equipment, expected to positively impact the company's future performance [4] - Wento Holdings reported that its cinema and gaming businesses are still in the recovery phase post-restructuring, with potential uncertainties in future operations [5] - Xibu Muye's fresh milk production increased by 4.8% month-on-month in August [6] - China Shipbuilding announced the implementation of a share exchange merger with China Heavy Industry [6] - Gansu Energy plans to invest CNY 40.89 billion in a wind-solar integrated project [6] - Xinhua Medical's endoscope cleaning workstation received a Class II medical device registration certificate [6]

Project Investment - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to invest no more than 4 billion yuan to build a new lithium-ion battery manufacturing base with an annual capacity of 20GWh [1] - Jingneng Thermal Power intends to invest 40.88 million yuan in the Tongzhou Liuxiao Village project [1] Contract Bidding - Hongsheng Huayuan is expected to win a bid for a national grid project worth approximately 780 million yuan [1] - Dalian Electric Porcelain's subsidiary is expected to win a bid for a national grid project totaling about 95.7 million yuan [1] Equity Acquisition - Xingchen Technology plans to acquire a 53.3087% stake in Fubingkun for 214 million yuan [1] - Zhongxin International intends to purchase a minority stake in Zhongxin North, with stock suspension starting September 1 [1] Share Buyback - Kaiying Network plans to repurchase company shares for 100 million to 200 million yuan [2] - City Investment Holdings intends to repurchase shares for 5 million to 10 million yuan [2] Performance - Changjiang Electric Power reported a net profit of 13.056 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [2] - Hongwei Group's net profit for the first half of the year was 2.028 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.34% [2] Shareholding Changes - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by 3 billion to 3.3 billion yuan [2] - Huasheng Tiancheng's director Wang Weihang intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 10.929 million shares [2] Other - Electric Alloy plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 545 million yuan for high-performance copper and copper alloy production projects [2] - Yunzhu Technology intends to raise no more than 876 million yuan through a private placement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of HuTongDa Network (9878.HK) rose by 5.65% to HKD 16.08, despite the overall decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with a trading volume of HKD 114 million and a market capitalization of HKD 9.046 billion. The company is set to release its interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025, after the market closes today [1]. Group 1 - HuTongDa Network is expected to achieve steady revenue growth for the full year 2025, according to a report from Citigroup [1]. - The company has proactively reduced low-margin business segments following a strategic adjustment last year, which is anticipated to significantly enhance profit margins this year [1]. - The improvement in the company's profitability path is clear, affirming a positive trend in its fundamentals, leading to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23 [1].

Market Trend & Token Performance - Ethereum led a rally in altcoins, with older tokens showing renewed activity, particularly in the NFT sector with $PENGU and GameFi with $YGG [1] - $YGG outperformed its GameFi peers and experienced increased trading volume, suggesting potential underlying activity beyond market sentiment [1] - From yesterday to this morning, YGG rose from below 0.15 to 0.18, leading the GameFi sector [1] Potential Buyback & Financial Analysis - On-chain data indicates a potential $YGG buyback, with 1 million USDT deposited into Binance using $YGG's deposit address [1] - A large amount of $YGG was withdrawn from the exchange to a multi-signature wallet belonging to YGG, suggesting a buyback [1] - YGG's revenue for the previous month was nearly 1 million USD, indicating a solid fundamental base [1] Implications of Buyback - A buyback suggests the project believes the current token price is undervalued [1] - Buybacks aim to support the price by reducing market circulation [1] - Buybacks signal confidence to the market, as those most knowledgeable about the project are investing [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Tianfeng Securities has given a "buy" rating for Tapai Group (002233.SZ) with a latest price of 8.44 yuan [2] - The reasons for the rating include an increase in cement volume while prices have decreased, leading to a year-on-year decline in cost per ton [2] - In the first half of the year, non-operating income increased by 151 million yuan, indicating strong net cash reserves [2] - The company's confidence is demonstrated through dividends and share buybacks [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - BeiGene reported a net profit of 450 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year, with product revenue increasing by 45.8% to 17.36 billion yuan and total revenue rising by 46.0% to 17.52 billion yuan [1] - CITIC Securities announced that Huaxia Fund achieved an operating income of 4.258 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.123 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with total comprehensive income of 1.106 billion yuan [3] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 29.737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.19%, with total operating income of 90.559 billion yuan, up 2.62% [6] - Xianhe Co. plans to invest approximately 11 billion yuan in a new integrated high-performance paper-based material project, with an expected annual output value of about 5.15 billion yuan from the first phase [7] - Shengmei Shanghai reported a net profit of 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.99% [14] Group 2: Regulatory and Corporate Actions - Sino Medical's subsidiary received breakthrough medical device designation from the FDA for its intracranial atherosclerosis treatment product, marking it as the first of its kind globally [2] - *ST Dongtong's actual controller and chairman is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [8] - Tianyang Technology is planning to purchase equity in Tonglian Financial Services, with key transaction details still under negotiation [10] - Dongfang Guoxin's major shareholder reduced their stake by 2.68 million shares, decreasing their total shareholding from 27.06% to 26.82% [5] - Filinger's president reduced his holdings by 8,600 shares during a period of stock price volatility, while other executives did not sell shares [4]

Market Overview - On August 6, a total of 77 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit, with 63 stocks remaining after excluding 14 ST stocks, resulting in an overall limit-up rate of 75.49% [1] - The highest limit-up order volume was recorded by Tongling Nonferrous Metals, with 833,800 hands, followed by China Shipbuilding Industry, Zhong An Keji, and Beiwai Technology, with limit-up orders of 646,600 hands, 288,300 hands, and 230,000 hands respectively [1] Limit-Up Stocks Summary - The top three stocks by limit-up order funds were Beijiajie (5.06 billion), Changcheng Jincheng (3.46 billion), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.36 billion) [1] - Beijiajie closed at 44.97 yuan with a turnover rate of 3.99%, driven by probiotics, the three-child policy concept, oral care, and exports [2] - Changcheng Jincheng closed at 46.98 yuan with a turnover rate of 5.88%, influenced by military equipment restructuring, ammunition and weaponry, and a narrowed mid-term loss [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals closed at 4.03 yuan with a turnover rate of 7.75%, supported by share buybacks, copper foil expansion, and state-owned enterprise reform [2] - China Heavy Industry closed at 5.15 yuan with a turnover rate of 4.24%, boosted by absorption and merger, shipbuilding, and state-owned enterprise reform [2]

Performance Updates - 开拓药业-B (09939.HK) has completed patient enrollment for the Phase III clinical trial of KX-826 solution for androgenetic alopecia in adult males in China [2] - 李氏大药厂 (00950.HK) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for Socazolimab to be used in combination with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in mainland China [2] - 恒瑞医药 (01276.HK) has received approval for clinical trials of SHR-8068 injection, Adebali monoclonal antibody injection, and Bevacizumab injection [2] - 恒瑞医药 (01276.HK) has also received approval to conduct clinical trials for HRS-5041, intended for prostate cancer treatment [2] - 深圳高速公路股份 (00548.HK) reported toll revenue of 106 million yuan for the outer ring project in June [2] - 大成生化科技 (00809.HK) has signed an EPC contract with Northeast Electric and Liaoning Electric for boiler renovation projects, with a maximum cost of 129.1 million yuan [2] - 小黄鸭德盈 (02250.HK) has signed a contract to develop an AI marketing system to diversify revenue sources [2] Buyback and Financing Activities - 威海银行 (09677.HK) plans to issue up to approximately 758 million domestic shares and 154 million H-shares, raising nearly 3 billion yuan [2] Financial Results - 香港电讯-SS (06823.HK) reported total revenue of 17.322 billion HKD for the first half, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with a net profit of 2.07 billion HKD, also up 4% [4] - 青岛银行 (03866.HK) reported operating revenue of 7.662 billion yuan for the first half, a growth of 7.5%, and a net profit of 3.065 billion yuan, up 16.05% [4] - 中国石油化工股份 (00386.HK) expects mid-term net profit to be between 20.1 billion and 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39.5%-43.7% [4] - 汽车之家-S (02518.HK) reported total revenue of 3.212 billion yuan for the first half, a decrease of 7.75%, with a net profit of 772 million yuan, down 15.99% [4] - 绿茶集团 (06831.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net profit to be between 230 million and 237 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%-36% [4] - 粤海置地 (00124.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net profit to exceed 260 million HKD, turning from loss to profit [4] - 药师帮 (09885.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net profit to exceed 70 million yuan [4] - 中国东方教育 (00667.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net profit to grow by 45%-50% year-on-year [4] - 中核国际 (02302.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term revenue to increase to at least 585 million HKD, with net profit of at least 9.5 million HKD [4] - 大唐环境 (01272.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net profit to decrease to between 350 million and 400 million yuan [4] - 长江生命科技 (00775.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term net loss of approximately 150 million HKD, turning from profit to loss year-on-year [4] - 延长石油国际 (00346.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term loss of approximately 27.9 million HKD [4]