● 本报记者 王宇露 多家私募机构近期对四季度行情做出研判，引发投资者关注。整体来看，私募机构对后市态度积极，对 行情的延续性较为乐观。不过，私募机构提示，近期市场交投活跃度有所下降，投资者需要就防御与进 攻做出平衡，并警惕部分科技股的估值压力。 丰岭资本认为，本次人工智能大潮中的很多热门公司，的确有真实业绩作为支撑，靠预期带动的估值泡 沫并不一定存在。但是，从正常的商业逻辑出发，超高的利润率以及不稳定的竞争格局，必然会带来相 关领域的竞争加剧和利润率回归。 对后市相对乐观 平衡防御与进攻 复胜资产表示，除了科技股继续狂飙之外，市场中的大部分品种基本回归区间震荡的走势。在这个阶 段，可能很多投资者对于后市会比较犹豫，复胜资产对于未来市场表现持相对乐观态度。相比于宏观经 济，复胜资产表示，更关注行业层面龙头公司的业绩趋势。目前可以看到一些受益于"反内卷"政策的行 业龙头公司已经出现了业绩边际改善的迹象，诸如工程机械、化工等。复胜资产认为，经济持续复苏的 趋势没有改变，投资者相对应对未来市场也更有信心。 尽管中长期坚定看好人工智能产业的成长空间，但丹羿投资提示，短期需警惕市场情绪推动下的波动风 险。展望未来，将重 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic stability and supportive policies are expected to lead to a steady A-share market, with institutional investors, including insurance funds, likely to increase their equity asset allocation, becoming a significant source of incremental capital [1] - Investment opportunities in the technology growth sector are favored, particularly in the AI industry, including domestic computing power supply chains and AI applications [1] - A balanced allocation between technology and cyclical sectors is anticipated, with cyclical industries like petrochemicals currently showing low valuations and investment value [1] Group 2 - The focus on investment opportunities in the technology sector remains strong, with particular attention on domestic innovation and localization [1] - Opportunities in cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals are being considered, driven by supply-side capacity optimization and demand-side economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a monetary policy that prioritizes domestic needs while balancing external factors [1] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits [1] Group 2 - Futu Securities and Tiger Brokers have further closed the account opening channels for residents in mainland China due to new regulatory requirements [3] - Futu Securities now requires mainland clients to hold overseas permanent residency identification for account opening [3] - Tiger Brokers has adjusted its policy to only accept clients with non-mainland Chinese identification for account opening [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to enhance the entry of various long-term funds into the market and increase their proportion [6] - The CSRC will continue to promote public fund reforms and strengthen market stabilization mechanisms [6] Group 4 - The dividend index closed at its second-lowest level of the year, with significant declines in various dividend-related indices [9] - The dividend index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 7.46, placing it in the 63.06th percentile over the past decade [9] - The price-to-book ratios for the dividend index and related indices are at 0.72, 0.75, and 0.79, corresponding to the 37.1%, 29.95%, and 46.44% percentiles respectively [9] Group 5 - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Mitsui & Co., surpassing a 10% ownership threshold, indicating confidence in Japanese trading companies [16]

截至2025年8月28日 10:04，上证科创板芯片指数强势上涨3.44%，成分股中芯国际上涨8.36%，龙芯中 科上涨8.21%，复旦微电上涨7.17%，东芯股份、盛科通信等个股跟涨。科创芯片ETF(588200)上涨 3.51%。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月27日，科创芯片ETF近1周累计上涨11.65%。 流动性方面，科创芯片ETF盘中换手5.36%，成交18.72亿元。拉长时间看，截至8月27日，科创芯片ETF 近1周日均成交48.96亿元，居可比基金第一。 规模方面，科创芯片ETF近1周规模增长29.46亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金第一。份额 方面，科创芯片ETF近半年份额增长36.54亿份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金第一。 截至8月27日，科创芯片ETF近1年净值上涨133.87%，居可比基金第一，指数股票型基金排名19/2985， 居于前0.64%。从收益能力看，截至2025年8月27日，科创芯片ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为 25.18%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为36.01%，上涨月份平均收益率为8.19%。 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，上证科创板芯 ...

Group 1 - Huawei Cloud announced its Tokens service is fully integrated with CloudMatrix384 super nodes, leveraging a "mixed bag" advantage to enhance performance through system innovation [1] - The xDeepServe architecture innovation allows for a maximum of 2400 TPS and 50 ms TPO, achieving high throughput and low latency performance that surpasses industry standards [1] - In the past 18 months, China's AI computing power demand has grown exponentially, with daily Token consumption increasing from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to over 30 trillion by June 2023, reflecting a growth of over 300 times [1] Group 2 - CloudMatrix384 super nodes are a revolutionary AI architecture introduced by Huawei, designed to address traditional computing power bottlenecks with features such as high throughput, low latency, and high elasticity [1] - The integration of CloudMatrix384 super nodes significantly enhances Tokens processing efficiency, accelerating the commercialization of AI [1] - Shengke Communication is identified as a rare domestic Ethernet switch chip design company, targeting large-scale data center and cloud service demands with flagship chips offering switching capacities of 12.8 Tbps and 25.6 Tbps [1] Group 3 - Oulutong is a high-power server power supply provider that benefits from the growth of the AI industry and opportunities for domestic substitution [2]

Group 1: Computer ETF Performance - The Computer ETF (159998) increased by 1.02%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 128 million yuan [3] - The Computer ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 7.13% over the past week, reaching a new high in scale at 3.772 billion yuan [4][5] - Key stocks in the Computer ETF include Tuo Wei Information (002261) up 10.00%, Guanglian Da (002410) up 8.67%, and Runhe Software (300339) up 8.24% [3] Group 2: Electronic ETF Performance - The Electronic ETF (159997) rose by 0.34%, also achieving three consecutive increases, with a trading volume of 31.4462 million yuan [4] - Over the past week, the Electronic ETF has increased by 10.68%, reaching a scale of 1.343 billion yuan, a new high in three months [5] - Notable stocks in the Electronic ETF include Lingyi Technology (002600) up 10.03%, Shengmei Shanghai (688082) up 9.86%, and Tuo Jing Technology (688072) up 7.86% [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Computer ETF tracks a broad range of sectors within the information technology industry, including software and hardware leaders like iFlytek and Hikvision, catering to both AI software and hardware markets [5] - The Electronic ETF closely follows the CSI Electronic Index, which includes companies involved in semiconductors, computers, and consumer electronics, featuring leading firms such as Luxshare Precision and SMIC [5] - Citic Securities highlights the competitive edge of domestic large models like DeepSeek-V3.1, which is expected to drive demand for computing power and support the growth of the domestic computing industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which employs a hybrid reasoning architecture supporting both "thinking" and "non-thinking," is expected to enhance performance in programming and search applications, indicating strong competitiveness of domestic large models in the market [1] Group 1: Product Development - DeepSeek-V3.1 utilizes UE8M0FP8Scale parameter precision, specifically designed for the upcoming generation of domestic chips [1] - The new large model has shown significant improvements in performance after training, particularly in agent applications [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the competitive strength of domestic large models like DeepSeek is likely to drive growth in computing power demand [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on the domestic computing power industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of leading growth stocks, with companies like Cambrian and Industrial Fulian driving market performance, contrasting with the previous dominance of small-cap growth stocks [4][13][14] - The expectation of a rate cut cycle is reinforced by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have increased market optimism and risk appetite, suggesting a favorable environment for technology assets [4][14] - The report emphasizes the return of mid-cycle industries, particularly technology and advanced manufacturing, as the economy transitions out of a low-price phase, with significant implications for investment strategies [4][29] Group 2 - The launch of DeepSeek V3.1, optimized for domestic chip structures, is seen as a catalyst for the domestic computing power industry, with companies like Cambrian and Haiguang Information showing strong performance in their recent earnings reports [34][35] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of AI products, such as AI glasses and smartphones, indicating a growing market for AI applications and the potential for substantial investment opportunities in this sector [38][39][41] - The performance of the domestic computing power industry is validated by strong earnings growth from key players, with Haiguang Information reporting a 45.21% year-on-year increase in revenue, reflecting robust demand for high-end chips [35][37]

Summary of Conference Call on Domestic Computing Power Industry Chain Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic computing power chip sector, particularly focusing on companies like Cambricon and the impact of major internet firms such as ByteDance and Alibaba restarting capital expenditure tenders, indicating a positive shift in the COMPEX cycle [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The investment opportunity window for domestic computing power chips began in early July 2025, marked by the H20 exemption allowing continued sales to China and subsequent capital expenditure tenders from major internet companies [3][4]. - **Market Recovery**: The domestic computing power chip sector is recovering from a low point in July 2025, with negative factors dissipating and manufacturing yield improving, leading to a turnaround in development [1][4][5]. - **Cambricon's Position**: Cambricon is deeply tied to ByteDance, with substantial orders expected. Despite supply constraints from TSMC and SMIC, the expansion of SMIC's n+2 capacity and yield improvements present significant growth potential for Cambricon [1][6]. - **Production Capacity**: SMIC's n+2 capacity expansion is exceeding expectations, which will significantly enhance Cambricon's production capacity, with projections of 400,000 units and revenues exceeding 25 billion yuan by 2026 [2][14]. - **Future Chip Development**: Cambricon's next-generation chip, the 690, is expected to achieve 80% of NVIDIA H100's performance, potentially surpassing the Ascend 910C, marking it as the strongest domestic chip [10][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The semiconductor sector has been experiencing low sentiment, but recent developments indicate a potential turnaround, with Cambricon's stock showing resilience against negative factors [13][15]. - **Challenges and Responses**: Cambricon faces several challenges, including poor Q2 performance and supply shortages, but these issues are expected to be mitigated by SMIC's capacity expansion and yield recovery [12][13]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the domestic computing power chip industry is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by advancements in manufacturing processes and increasing demand from internet giants [8][18]. Potential Companies to Watch - Key players in the domestic computing power industry include Cambricon and Haiguang, along with foundries and packaging companies like SMIC and Hua Hong, which are crucial for the advancement of the industry [18][19]. Conclusion - The domestic computing power chip sector is poised for significant growth, driven by favorable market conditions, technological advancements, and strong demand from major internet companies, making it a compelling area for investment opportunities [1][8][15].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhonghai Mixed Reform Dividend Mixed A (001574) reported a profit of 1.1206 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 4.45% during the reporting period [3]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.061 yuan, with a recent three-month growth rate of 6.96%, ranking 611 out of 880 comparable funds [4]. - The fund's six-month growth rate was 1.53%, ranking 780 out of 880, while the one-year growth rate was -0.38%, ranking 822 out of 880 [4]. - Over the past three years, the fund's growth rate was -31.90%, ranking 775 out of 871 [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3641, ranking 770 out of 875 [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 52.87%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 26.81% [11]. Fund Holdings and Strategy - As of June 30, the fund maintained an average stock position of 79.48% over the past three years, slightly below the industry average of 80.43% [14]. - The fund's top ten holdings include Haige Communication, Zhaoyi Innovation, China Galaxy, Guorui Technology, Haiguang Information, Guangdong Hongda, Huafeng Technology, Northern Huachuang, SMIC, and Chip Source Micro [18]. - The fund manager highlighted three key investment directions: the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, the military industry due to heightened international tensions, and state-owned enterprises with strong profit improvement potential [3].