【整理/观察者网 唐晓甫】 以美国为首的西方突然发现世界不听话了，一研究，觉得根源在中国，于是中美关系肯定不好。一个基本事实已经发生：美国两党达成共识，中国是唯一能 够挑战美国的国家。这意味着中美关系进入结构性紧张。 从结构上讲，未来中美关系肯定不可能回到从前的状态。逻辑很简单：世界在大变，中国是变量，美国是既有秩序的主导方，对中国崛起引发的变化不满， 然后就要"整我们"。现在美国两党达成了共识：中国是唯一对手。 拜登和特朗普在其他政策上都会吵架，但只有一个政策完全一致：对付中国。两党都把中国当"唯一对手"，这比对方把你当"第一对手"的情况还要差。因 为"第一"至少意味着后面还有第二、三、四、五、六，"唯一"就是只有你。 而且现在理论上美国力量还是比我们大，美国是一把手，一把手把我们当唯一对手，你想我们日子会多难过。这就是现在的中美关系。 因此，中美关系的性质变了：原来是既竞争又合作，现在是全面竞争。 我们大致可以把新中国跟美国的关系划分成几个阶段。1949年到1972年尼克松访华前是第一阶段，中美关系当时是绝对的敌对。当时中美之间真打仗，在朝 鲜、越南、台海，美国给了很多支持。所以，1949到1972年这2 ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in China continues to show positive trends with October 2023 sales reaching 3.322 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [2] - Cumulative sales from January to October 2023 stand at 27.687 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [2] - The inventory situation indicates a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.2 for October, which is a 6.4% increase year-on-year but a 13.3% decrease month-on-month [2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is performing particularly well, with October sales of 1.715 million units, a year-on-year growth of 19.9% and a penetration rate of 51.6% [2] Sales and Inventory - October 2023 automotive sales were 3.322 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year [2] - Total automotive sales for the first ten months of 2023 reached 27.687 million units, marking a 12.4% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The comprehensive inventory coefficient for October was 1.2, which is a 6.4% increase year-on-year and a 13.3% decrease from the previous month [2] - The dealer inventory warning index stood at 52.6%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [2] New Energy Vehicles - NEV sales in October 2023 were 1.715 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.9% and achieving a penetration rate of 51.6% [2] - From January to October 2023, NEV sales totaled 12.943 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 32.7% and a penetration rate of 46.7% [2] Investment Strategy - The automotive sector is advised to focus on undervalued leading companies in both vehicle manufacturing and parts due to improving performance [3] - Key companies to watch include established domestic brands in the NEV sector such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto [3] - Stable, undervalued parts manufacturers like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass are also recommended [3] - The report highlights opportunities in the domestic replacement market driven by the "domestic circulation" strategy [3] Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a weekly decline of 2.11%, ranking 26th among 31 sectors tracked by Shenwan [5] - The automotive industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which saw declines of -0.18% [5] - In the sub-sectors, automotive services increased by 0.51%, while automotive parts and other categories saw declines [5] Notable Stocks - The top five gaining stocks in the automotive sector this week were Langbo Technology, Yingli Automotive, Xinpeng Co., Huafeng Co., and Qin'an Co. [6] - The top five losing stocks included Biaobang Co., Xinquan Co., Haoen Automotive, Sanlian Forging, and Beite Technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move for sustainable economic development, particularly in the context of increasing external uncertainties and the need for a robust domestic market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Circulation - Strengthening domestic circulation is essential for addressing external shocks, enhancing internal stability, and ensuring long-term growth amidst global uncertainties [4][5]. - The domestic market's role is highlighted as a key driver for high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply structures [5][6]. - The integration of domestic and international circulations is necessary to leverage global resources while enhancing domestic market efficiency [6]. Group 2: Capital Market's Role - The capital market is positioned as a crucial hub for facilitating the efficient operation and quality enhancement of the domestic circulation [9]. - Capital markets can support the integration of technology and industry by providing comprehensive pricing mechanisms that reflect various business factors [10]. - The capital market's resource allocation capabilities can enhance the vitality of domestic circulation by directing resources to high-quality enterprises [11][12]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that capital market reforms should align with the broader goal of strengthening domestic circulation, emphasizing cross-departmental collaboration [16][17]. - It advocates for the development of diverse financing channels, particularly for technology innovation enterprises, to improve service capabilities across the entire lifecycle [17]. - The establishment of specialized funds by local governments is recommended to enhance long-term capital allocation to quality enterprises [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively combining a market-driven economy with proactive government intervention to enhance the socialist market economy in China, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][4]. Group 1: Economic System Reform - The reform of the economic system is a key focus, aiming to enhance the advantages of the socialist market economy. The 20th Central Committee has prioritized the construction of a high-level socialist market economy system, addressing issues that hinder market competition and government function [5]. - There is a need to clarify the boundaries between government and market roles to maximize the advantages of the socialist market economy, thereby liberating and developing productive forces [5]. Group 2: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is identified as the primary task for building a modern socialist country. The 15th Five-Year Plan aims for qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, emphasizing the need for both market and government collaboration [6]. - The article outlines that innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing are essential components of the new development philosophy that must be fully integrated into economic and social development [6]. Group 3: Domestic Circulation and External Challenges - Strengthening domestic circulation is crucial to counteract external uncertainties and shocks. The article highlights the importance of leveraging both government and market forces to facilitate resource flow and efficient allocation within the domestic market [7]. - With a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle-income group, breaking down barriers to resource allocation can unleash significant development potential and enhance domestic economic stability [7]. Group 4: Market System Construction - The article stresses the need to build a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system, which is essential for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing market vitality [9][10]. - It calls for the establishment of a nationwide unified market that promotes fair competition and reduces transaction costs, thereby fostering a conducive environment for technological innovation and enterprise development [10]. Group 5: Fair Competition and Legal Framework - Fair competition is highlighted as a fundamental principle of the market economy, with ongoing efforts to strengthen competition policies and eliminate barriers to market entry [11]. - The establishment of a legal economy and credit economy is essential, with a focus on creating a unified social credit system that enhances trust and accountability among market participants [12]. Group 6: Business Environment Optimization - The article advocates for the continuous improvement of the business environment to stimulate market vitality and internal development momentum, aligning with international standards [13]. - It emphasizes the need for a transparent and efficient market access system, as well as the protection of foreign investment rights to encourage more foreign enterprises to invest in China [13]. Group 7: Government Role and Efficiency - The government is tasked with balancing market vitality and order, ensuring effective macroeconomic governance and regulatory oversight [15][16]. - Enhancing government service levels is crucial for creating a service-oriented government that meets the needs of citizens and businesses, thereby improving overall satisfaction and efficiency [18].

对话人： 李 拯 本报评论员 田 轩 清华大学国家金融研究院院长 李拯：习近平总书记强调，"把人口高质量发展同人民高品质生活紧密结合起来，把'投资于物'同'投资 于人'紧密结合起来"。"十五五"规划建议提出，"坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合"。从投资角度来看，投资于人主要包括哪些方面，与投资于物有何不同？ 田轩：投资于人本质上是贯彻以人民为中心的发展思想，把资源更多投向人的全面发展，主要包括教育 投资、健康投资、社会保障与福利投资、就业创业支持投资等方面。 从"物"到"人"，主要变化体现在几点：从投资对象与价值形态看，投资于人以劳动者为对象，形成无形 的人力资本，价值衡量多元复杂；从回报周期看，投资于人是长期过程，回报相对滞后但持久稳定；从 社会效应看，人力资本具有自我增值和适应能力，投资于人具有广泛社会效应和正外部性，能够有效提 升经济社会发展的质量效益。 李拯：明确提出投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，这背后是发展思路和宏观经济治理的深刻调整，主要体 现在哪些方面？ 田轩：体现为三个方面的深刻调整。增长动力从要素驱动转向创新驱动，投资于物依赖物质要素投入， 投资于人则注重提升人力资源素质，更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - China needs to be vigilant about the weakening momentum of global economic growth and the recurring external trade conflicts that may disrupt external demand in the coming year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese exports, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - Despite the intensified trade conflict, China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to about 10% [3][4] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.3% and 26.1% respectively, contributing positively to overall export growth [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - The structure of China's export products has improved, with the share of high-tech industrial products rising to 53.3% in September 2023, marking a historical high [5][7] - The growth in high-tech industrial exports has been driven by machinery and audio-visual equipment, which saw their export shares increase to 42.6% and 8.5% respectively [5][7] - The RCA index for various industrial products indicates that while labor and resource-intensive products have seen a decline in comparative advantage, other categories have shown significant improvement [9][12] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, with 51.1% of total exports being intermediate products, indicating a reliance on further processing in other countries like Vietnam [13][15] - The IMF report highlights that while China's intermediate goods trade has increased, the export of final goods remains primarily directed towards Europe and North America, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trade structure [15] - The continuous decline in export prices since 2023 has led to a trend of "trading price for volume," which may provoke increased trade protectionism against China [15][17]

全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.6%……10月份我国主要经济 指标最新出炉。 当前经济运行呈现哪些特点？全年经济发展预期目标能否顺利实现？在国新办11月14日举行的新闻发布 会上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍了相关情况。 国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进 付凌晖介绍，10月份我国生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动能培育壮大，国民经 济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业看，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。服务业增势平稳，国庆和中秋假期叠加带动下，住 宿和餐饮业生产指数同比增长3.9%，比上月加快2.6个百分点。 市场销售持续扩大。10月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，消费品以旧换新相关商品销售保持较 快增长。1至10月份，服务零售额同比增长5.3%。 1至10月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。 实现全年预期目标具备较多有利条件 从就业和物价看，10月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。10月份，全国居民消 费价格指数（CP ...

新华社北京11月14日电 题：10月份主要指标出炉，如何看待当前经济运行态势？ 新华社记者王雨萧、黄垚 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.6%……10月份我国主要 经济指标最新出炉。 当前经济运行呈现哪些特点？全年经济发展预期目标能否顺利实现？在国新办11月14日举行的新闻 发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍了相关情况。 付凌晖表示，总的来看，10月份国民经济运行总体平稳，也要看到，外部环境不稳定不确定因素较 多，国内结构调整压力较大，经济平稳运行面临不少挑战。 转型升级扎实推进 新动能继续壮大 从多项数据指标看，今年以来我国推进经济结构调整、加快培育新动能继续取得积极成效。 国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进 付凌晖介绍，10月份我国生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动能培育壮大，国 民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业 看，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。服务业增势平稳，国庆和中秋假期叠加带动 下，住宿和餐饮业生产指数同比增长3.9%，比上月加快2. ...

1 - 十周四级 名词卡片 协同融通发展 "支持中小企业和个体工商户发展, 推动大中小企业协同融通发展。" "十五五"规划建议 释义 协同融通发展并非简单的企业间合作,而是 以市场、资本、技术、信息等互通共享为基础, 提升整体创新效率、产业链韧性和宏观经济稳定 性的深度融合发展模式。 据《党的二十届四中全会<建议>学习辅导百问》 延伸阅读 为什么要推动大中小企业协同融通发展： 从宏观经济运行看，中小企业在吸纳就业、促进创新方面发挥着不可替代的作用，通过大企业牵引需 求、稳定大盘，中小企业提供大量就业岗位、激发市场活力，共同保障经济运行的稳定性和可持续性。 大中小企业协同融通发展有利于构建产业创新生态系统。 通过大中小企业协同，能够更好汇聚各方创新资源，激发全社会创新活力。大企业拥有丰富的研发资 源、先进装备和技术储备，但由于组织庞大复杂，有时创新活力不足;对于一些细分领域，也往往无暇顾 及。中小企业市场嗅觉敏锐，组织方式和决策机制灵活,但经常受制于资金短缺、技术积累薄弱、抗风险能 力弱。 通过构建开放创新平台，大企业可以发布技术需求清单，为中小企业提供清晰的需求导向和市场支 撑。中小企业的技术创新可以通过技术 ...

在国务院新闻办公室14日举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计 司司长付凌晖表示，今年以来，各地区各部门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大 市场建设，深化改革扩大开放，强化创新驱动，国民经济顶住压力，保持稳中有进发展态势。从下阶段 情况来看，尽管经济运行还面临不少风险挑战，但我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变化， 宏观政策持续发力，市场空间逐步拓展，新质生产力培育壮大，实现全年预期目标具备较多有利条件。 一是经济运行总体平稳。从宏观经济四大指标来看，我国经济平稳运行的态势没有改变，为实现全年目 标打下了坚实基础。经济较快增长。前三季度国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，在全球主要经济体中位居 前列。1-10月份，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比分别增长6.1%和5.7%，继续保持较快增 长。就业物价总体稳定。10月份，全国城镇调查失业率继续下降，居民消费价格同比由降转涨，出现积 极变化。国际收支基本平衡。1-10月份，我国货物进出口总额同比增长3.6%，10月末外汇储备稳定在 3.3万亿美元以上。 同时，近期市场供求出现积极变化，企业效益逐步改善，积极因素 ...