Core Viewpoint - The U.S. faces a "dilemma" regarding the dollar, balancing between maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency and addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6][15]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, particularly the dollar's role in international trade [1][5]. - There are two main channels connecting trade disputes to currency: traditional exchange rates and the impact of high domestic savings rates in countries like China [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar's Dilemma - The U.S. aims to promote a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and improve trade balances while also wanting to maintain its geopolitical leverage through the dollar [6][15]. - Achieving both objectives is seen as unlikely, as the dollar will have to concede some of its global dominance [6][15]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - Four currencies are identified as potential challengers to the dollar: the euro, the renminbi, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), and digital currencies [8][9][12]. - The euro faces challenges related to the EU's internal dynamics and lacks a corresponding fiscal authority [8]. - The renminbi has made progress in internationalization but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [9][10]. Group 4: Opportunities for Reform - The current situation presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, particularly if the U.S. allows the dollar to retreat from its dominant position [13][14]. - The role of SDR could be expanded to provide a more stable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [12][14]. Group 5: Conditions for Currency as Reserve - For a currency to serve as a reserve, it must provide stable and secure assets, which is currently a challenge for alternatives to the dollar [19][20]. - The global demand for reserve currencies is complex, and the scale of dollar assets may not reflect the actual need for reserve currencies [20][21].

文/ 中国人民银行原行长 周小川 中国人民银行原行长周小川在2 02 5清华五道口全球金融论坛闭门研讨会 上的演讲中指出，美国在美元问题上实际上存在着两个互相矛盾的目标， 面临"两难选择"。问题的关键在于，国际货币体系中，有没有其他货币敢 于且有能力出来挑战现状，不一定是公开进行挑战，而是寻求机会在实际 应用领域逐步替代部分美元，那么国际货币体系就可能出现新的局面。 全球贸易关税争端与美元的两难选择 第二个渠道是储蓄率的外溢与货币相关。 这种分析认为，全球贸易之所以不平衡，与亚洲特别是中国的国内储蓄率过高有关，它导致大量贸易顺 差及强劲的对外投融资。这种过高的储蓄主要是本币的，但通过国际货币体系产生转换，形成对外的贸易、投资和借贷等行动。 图为周小川 在2008年全球金融危机时，时任美联储主席伯南克就从储蓄过量（saving glut）的角度分析美国为什么出现次贷危机。他认为，亚洲包括中国在内 储蓄率过高，大量的储蓄资金通过美元涌入美国市场，压低了美国国内利率和美国家庭储蓄率。虽然美国民众注重消费，国际收支经常项目逆差， 但有资本流入，美元仍过于强劲。至于这种渠道是否对美国产生不公平，那可能需要另外讨论。 因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for dialogue and cooperation among all parties to improve global financial governance, guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era [1][2]. Group 1: Global Governance Initiative - The global governance initiative proposed by Xi Jinping includes five core concepts: sovereign equality, adherence to international law, practice of multilateralism, human-centered approach, and action-oriented focus [2]. - The initiative aims to address the increasing global governance deficit and offers a Chinese solution to the question of who governs, how to govern, and for whom to govern [2]. Group 2: International Monetary System Reform - The international monetary system has evolved historically, with the dominance of currencies reflecting changes in global power dynamics [4]. - The reliance on a single sovereign currency poses inherent instability, as national interests may conflict with global public goods provision [5]. - Discussions on reforming the international monetary system are increasingly driven by geopolitical factors, focusing on reducing dependence on a single currency and promoting a competitive environment among multiple strong currencies [6]. - The potential for a super-sovereign currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR), is discussed, although practical challenges remain in achieving political consensus and expanding its use [7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment System Improvement - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but faces challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [9]. - There is a trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies and new payment systems emerging [10]. - The interoperability of payment systems is improving, and new technologies like blockchain are reshaping traditional payment methods [10]. Group 4: Global Financial Stability System - Post-2008 financial crisis, the global financial safety net has been strengthened, with various regional and bilateral mechanisms established [12]. - Regulatory frameworks have been enhanced to prevent crises, but challenges remain, including fragmented regulations and insufficient oversight of non-bank intermediaries [14]. - A robust international monetary fund is essential for maintaining a diverse and effective global financial safety net [14]. Group 5: Governance of International Financial Organizations - The governance of international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank needs reform to better reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [16][17]. - There is a call for adjustments in voting rights and representation within these organizations to enhance their legitimacy and efficiency [17]. - Strengthening the supervisory role of international financial organizations is crucial for maintaining global economic stability and promoting multilateralism [17].

坚定践行全球治理倡议 持续推进全球金融治理改革完善 潘功胜 2025年9月1日，习近平总书记在"上海合作组织+"会议上首次提出全球治理倡议，这是继全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议 后，中国向世界贡献的又一重要公共产品。习近平总书记系统阐述了全球治理倡议"奉行主权平等、遵守国际法治、践行多边主义、倡导以 人为本、注重行动导向"五个方面核心理念，深刻回答了全球治理赤字不断加剧时代背景下由谁治理、如何治理、为谁治理的重大命题，为 加强和完善全球治理进一步贡献中国智慧、提出中国方案。 全球金融治理是全球治理的重要组成部分。 当前，全球地缘冲突持续演进，单边主义、逆全球化抬头，全球金融治理体系加速变革，习近 平总书记关于全球治理倡议的重要讲话精神为推动完善全球金融治理指明了前进方向。全球金融治理内容十分广泛，这里主要聚焦国际货币 体系、跨境支付体系、全球金融稳定体系、国际金融组织治理四个问题，就深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于全球治理倡议的重要讲话精神谈 一些思考和体会。 一、推动新一轮国际货币体系变革 从历史看，国际货币体系始终处于演进之中，国际主导货币的更替反映了国际格局的深刻变化，本质上是国家竞争力的迭代。1 ...

Group 1 - The IMF warns that the global current account imbalance is set to widen sharply in 2024, reversing the trend of narrowing since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1][2] - The report criticizes the U.S. administration's high tariffs on trade partners, stating that such trade conflicts could have significant macroeconomic impacts and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1][2] - The report highlights that excessive surpluses or deficits may not be problematic in themselves, but can lead to risks if they become excessive, particularly in the context of long-term domestic imbalances and rising trade tensions [1][3] Group 2 - The IMF's chief economist emphasizes that excessive surpluses or deficits stem from domestic policy distortions, advocating for reforms targeting these domestic drivers rather than relying on tariffs [2] - The report indicates that the rise in tariffs has limited impact on global imbalances, as it simultaneously reduces investment and savings in the taxing country, while tariff uncertainty may weaken consumer and business confidence [2] - The report acknowledges the dollar's continued dominance but warns that geopolitical fragmentation could pose risks to the international monetary system, with recent declines in U.S. Treasury demand reflecting market concerns over the U.S. fiscal trajectory [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that stablecoins are effectively becoming "shadow currencies" of the fiat currencies they are pegged to, as they are being integrated into regulatory frameworks [4][12]. - The recent approval of Guotai Junan International to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services marks a significant development in the Hong Kong market, positioning it as the first Chinese broker to offer such services [2][4]. - JD Group's ambition to apply for stablecoin licenses in major currency countries aims to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and improve transaction efficiency to within 10 seconds [3][4]. Group 2 - The regulatory backdrop includes the implementation of the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong and the U.S. Senate's passage of the Stablecoin Innovation Act, both of which require stablecoins to be backed by high liquidity assets and linked to fiat currencies [4][9]. - The article categorizes currencies into several types, highlighting that the more stablecoins pegged to a currency, the greater its theoretical influence [5][9]. - The traditional cross-border payment system faces challenges, including high costs and inefficiencies, which are exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [6][9]. Group 3 - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) is rising, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [7][8]. - The article advocates for the rapid deployment of offshore RMB stablecoins, particularly in Hong Kong, to enhance the RMB's presence in the digital finance era [9][10]. - The development of offshore RMB stablecoins in Hong Kong is seen as a strategic move to support Chinese enterprises and facilitate RMB internationalization [10][11]. Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for RMB stablecoins to coexist with ongoing multilateral central bank digital currency bridge projects, which aim to create efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions [11][12]. - It concludes that the competition among stablecoins ultimately reflects the underlying changes in the comprehensive national strength of the currencies involved, rather than just the technical aspects of the currencies themselves [12].

Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The People's Bank of China emphasizes active participation in improving global financial governance amid challenges to the US dollar's dominance[1] - The report identifies four key issues: international monetary system, cross-border payment system, global financial stability system, and governance of international financial organizations[2] - The international monetary system may evolve towards a few competing sovereign currencies due to inherent instability in a single sovereign currency system[2] Group 2: Financial Regulation and Policy - Challenges in global financial stability include fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight in emerging areas like digital finance[2] - The report advocates for a robust global financial safety net centered around the International Monetary Fund to maintain regulatory consistency[2] - Future monetary policy will focus on gradual transformation and innovation in structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai[3] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The financial regulatory authority plans to replicate successful practices from free trade zones to enhance foreign investment participation in financial services[5] - Emphasis on improving the capital market's inclusivity and adaptability to support technological and industrial innovation[6] - Five measures proposed to deepen capital market reforms include enhancing the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and fostering long-term capital[6] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The report highlights the importance of a stable foreign exchange market for high-quality economic development, with measures to monitor cross-border capital flows[7] - Policies to support high-quality development include enhancing foreign exchange services for key sectors and establishing evaluation mechanisms for foreign exchange management[8]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing the financial market infrastructure and promoting digital currency [1][2] - The establishment of an interbank market trading report database aims to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1] - A digital RMB international operation center will be set up to facilitate the internationalization of digital currency and support financial market innovation [1] - The creation of a personal credit agency will provide diversified credit products to financial institutions, improving the social credit system [1] - A pilot program for offshore trade finance services will be launched in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [1] - The development of offshore bonds will expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The optimization of free trade account functions will enhance the efficient flow of funds between quality enterprises and foreign capital [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be innovated in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2] - The discussion on the international monetary system highlights the need for a balanced competition among a few strong sovereign currencies [2][3] - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to become an international reserve currency is emphasized, requiring political consensus and operational improvements [3] - The global cross-border payment system is evolving towards greater efficiency and inclusivity, driven by emerging technologies [3] - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, necessitating a robust international financial safety net led by the IMF [4] - The governance of international financial organizations, particularly the IMF, requires adjustments in quota shares to reflect the economic standing of member countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with discussions on whether a single sovereign currency or a few strong currencies should dominate. The positions of the US dollar, euro, and renminbi in the global monetary system are being reevaluated [2][3]. Group 1: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the opportunity for the euro to increase its global standing amid declining confidence in the dollar due to US policies [2][3]. - Lagarde notes that the euro currently holds a 20% share in global foreign exchange reserves, while the dollar accounts for 58%, suggesting that enhancing the euro's status could lead to lower borrowing costs and reduced exchange rate risks [3][6]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng advocates for reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency, promoting healthy competition among a few strong currencies to enhance the resilience of the international monetary system [2][5]. Group 2: Current Trends and Market Reactions - The dollar's dominance is being challenged, with a 9.14% decline in the dollar index this year, while the euro has risen by 11.21%, the yen by 7.81%, and the renminbi by 1.56% [3]. - Gold has seen a significant increase of 27.4%, indicating a shift in market confidence away from the current monetary system [3][4]. - Lagarde points out that the rising demand for gold reflects a lack of confidence in existing currencies, presenting a unique opportunity for the euro [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of the Evolving Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which may enhance policy constraints on sovereign currency countries and improve global financial stability [5][7]. - The euro, established in 1999, has become the second-largest currency in global foreign exchange reserves, while the renminbi has steadily increased its international standing, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency [5][6]. - Lagarde highlights that the EU's strong fiscal position, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 89% compared to the US's 124%, could bolster confidence in the euro, although the supply of high-quality safe assets remains limited [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the international monetary system reflects profound changes in the global landscape and national competitiveness, with increasing discussions on reforming the monetary system driven by geopolitical factors rather than solely economic ones [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Trends - The international monetary system has evolved over the past 20 years, characterized by the emergence of the euro in 1999, which currently accounts for approximately 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, second only to the US dollar [2]. - The international status of the renminbi has steadily risen since the 2008 financial crisis, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency globally and the third-largest payment currency, as well as holding the third-largest weight in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [2]. Group 2: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The future of the international monetary system may trend towards a coexistence of a few sovereign currencies that compete and balance each other, necessitating sovereign currency countries to enhance domestic fiscal discipline and financial regulation [2]. - The SDR is theoretically positioned to address the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency as the international dominant currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better serve global public goods, but it faces challenges in achieving international consensus and market depth [3]. Group 3: Mechanisms for SDR Utilization - There is a need to optimize the mechanisms for SDR distribution and issuance, with a proposal to increase regular SDR issuance and expand its scale, moving beyond the current practice of one-time large issuances primarily for crisis response [3]. - Encouraging private sector participation in the use of SDR in international trade and investment activities, including the issuance of SDR-denominated bonds, is essential to enhance the role of SDR as a reserve asset and establish a settlement mechanism suitable for large-scale use [3].