Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a "super bull" trend in 2025, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increased demand from central banks [1][6][11]. Price Performance - In 2025, COMEX gold and silver contracts saw annual maximum increases of 66% and 187%, respectively, while London spot gold and silver rose by 75% and 192% [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium also experienced significant gains, with NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts rising over 185% and 136%, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged in three phases throughout 2025, with notable increases in the first quarter and a subsequent high-level consolidation phase before another rise in the latter part of the year [3]. - Silver's price increase was concentrated in the fourth quarter, with COMEX silver rising from under $40/oz to $79.7/oz [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market faced a deficit of approximately 5,835 tons in 2025, driven by low mining output and strong demand from sectors like 5G and renewable energy [8][9]. - Platinum and palladium also faced supply shortages, with the global platinum market expected to have a supply gap of 69,200 ounces in 2025 [10]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors supported the rise in gold prices, including risk premiums, a rate-cutting cycle, and increased central bank purchases [6][7]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remained high, with gold's price increases often leading to similar movements in silver [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect precious metals to maintain strength into 2026, with gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz, supported by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [11][13]. - The demand for silver and platinum is anticipated to grow due to the energy transition and industrial applications, despite potential short-term corrections [12][13].

TsINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融坪论 P65 加快构建政府债务管理 赵先信 集团公司控制 风险与法律! P95 量子计算如何影响 区 125 ancl PTS The St SINGHUA PBCSF 1章 2025年第12期 总第145期 2025年12月5日出版 人民币定价 36元 港面定价 48元 连续出版物号 CN 10-1169/F #连续出版物号 ISSN 2095-6738 到回专题 前瞻美债与美元 P74 145 P02 朱光耀: 前瞻美债与美元 P16 施康 等: 新变局下的大国竞争与对策: 以中美视角为例 P20 欧明刚: 美国债务问题长期性、 影响及应对 P23 郭田勇: 美国经济前景展望: 复苏韧性、通胀挑战与政策走向 黄金兼具金融投资属性与实物商品特质，始终在全球资产配置中占据独特地位。2025年以来，黄金价格一路震荡上扬，多次创出历史新高, 引发市场 广泛关注。央行购金行为被视为市场的重要风向标,2022年至2024年，全球央行每年净购金均超1000吨，为数十年来罕见强度，截至2025年10月末，我国 央行亦连续12个月增持黄金，彰显黄金战略价值特殊性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD index is experiencing a narrow trading range due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and mixed economic data from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% [1] - There is significant internal division among Fed officials, with over half of the 19 forecasting members favoring maintaining rates until 2026, while a minority advocates for further easing [1] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals suggest a potential pause in the rate-cutting cycle, but mixed signals from other officials have led to a slight decline in the USD index [1] Group 2: Long-term Dollar Pressure - The long-term depreciation pressure on the USD remains, with challenges from the Fed's easing cycle and increasing fiscal deficits [2] - The current U.S. tariff policy is disrupting global capital flows, further weakening the USD's safe-haven status [2] - While most institutions maintain a bearish outlook on the USD, some express cautious optimism due to the relative resilience of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and Japan [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD index is currently trading within a range of 98.34 to 98.478, with 98.34 acting as a key support level [3] - A break below this support could lead to further declines, while a successful breach of 98.478 may open up a slight rebound opportunity [3] - Key factors influencing the USD index include U.S. economic data, Fed officials' statements, and U.S. tariff policies [3] Group 4: Medium to Long-term Outlook - The USD index's future largely depends on the Fed's policy independence and the U.S. fiscal situation [4] - If the Fed becomes a political tool and is forced to expand easing, the USD could depreciate more rapidly [4] - The pace of changes in the international monetary system and geopolitical risks will also play significant roles in the USD's valuation [4]

在全球关税风暴冲击下，美元指数（如非特指，本文均指洲际交易所美元指数）不涨反跌是2025年国际外汇市场最大的意外。 2024年11月，时任哈佛大学教授的米兰在其撰写的工作论文（又称"米兰报告"或"海湖庄园协议"）中，将美国加征进口关税后，有可能推升市场避险情绪， 导致美元指数升值而非美货币对美元贬值，部分抵消关税的通胀效应作为基准情形。2025年4月初，花旗银行发布研报，直言当前全球贸易摩擦的核心并 非"关税"本身，而是其背后更深层的货币与通胀博弈，并预测人民币、欧元将对美元大幅贬值。 实际情况是，在特朗普2.0时期的经贸政策导致"美国例外论"破产、美元信用受损的情况下，美元指数震荡下跌。到2025年9月16日（均指当地时间，下 同），美元指数收盘价创下年内新低96.64，年内最大跌幅达10.9%。之后，随着美联储于9月17日和10月29日连续两次降息落地且降息预期逐渐降温，叠加 美国政府停摆、经济数据真空、欧洲政局动荡等因素影响，美元指数止跌反弹，到11月底升至100附近，收于99.44，年内跌幅收敛至8.34%。 尽管近期美元指数录得一定反弹，但市场机构普遍继续看空美元，基于利率预期、地缘政治风险及国际货 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 不排除2025年美元指数下跌已充分定价了各种利空，2026年美元指数可能没有市场预期的那么弱。 作者 | 管涛 中银证券全球首席经济学家 来源 |《中国外汇》2025年第23期 在全球关税风暴冲击下，美元指数（如非特指，本文均指洲际交易所美元指数）不涨反跌是2025年国际 外汇市场最大的意外。2024年11月，时任哈佛大学教授的米兰在其撰写的工作论文（又称"米兰报 告"或"海湖庄园协议"）中，将美国加征进口关税后，有可能推升市场避险情绪，导致美元指数升值而 非美货币对美元贬值，部分抵消关税的通胀效应作为基准情形。2025年4月初，花旗银行发布研报，直 言当前全球贸易摩擦的核心并非"关税"本身，而是其背后更深层的货币与通胀博弈，并预测人民币、欧 元将对美元大幅贬值。 实际情况是，在特朗普2.0时期的经贸政策导致"美国例外论"破产、美元信用受损的情况下，美元指数 震荡下跌。到2025年9月16日（均指当地时间，下同），美元指数收盘价创下年内新低96.64，年内最大 跌幅达10.9%。之后，随着美联储于9月17日和10月29日连续两次降息落地且降息预期逐渐降温，叠加 美国政府停摆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the international monetary system and the new opportunities for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the shift towards a multi-polar currency system and the acceleration of digital currency development [3][4]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The book "New Currency Landscape: Restructuring of International Financial Landscape and New Opportunities for Renminbi" explores the changes in the international monetary system and the implications for RMB internationalization [3][4]. Part One: Evolution of the International Monetary System and New Positioning of the Renminbi - This section analyzes the evolution of the international monetary system and discusses the new positioning and opportunities for RMB internationalization, focusing on the logic of the system's evolution and future diversification [4][13]. Part Two: Strategies and Support Systems for RMB Internationalization - This part examines key topics such as offshore financial experimental zones, digital RMB, cross-border payment and settlement, and the construction of a new international monetary system, providing strategies and support for RMB internationalization [4][10][13]. Author Backgrounds - The authors, including Pan Yingli, Guan Tao, and Zhang Ming, have extensive experience in international finance and monetary research, contributing to the depth of analysis in the book [5][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with increasing skepticism about the dollar's safe-haven status and a shift towards a more diversified cross-border payment system [1][5]. Group 1: International Monetary System Changes - Barry Eichengreen emphasizes that the international monetary system will continue to evolve, moving towards a more digital direction [1]. - The dollar's status as a safe haven is being questioned due to U.S. government actions, potentially accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [1][5]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 70% at the beginning of the century to just below 60% currently [4]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Inflation - Eichengreen notes that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain low and stable inflation and high employment, with current inflation at 2.9% year-on-year as of August [2]. - Concerns are raised about the potential for inflation to remain above 2%, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies [2][3]. Group 3: Impact of Government Policies - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed crucial, with current government actions posing risks to price stability and the dollar's safe-haven status [3]. - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to government policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, which have led to a significant increase in bond yields [3]. Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Digital Payments - Eichengreen discusses the varying impacts of cryptocurrencies on the international monetary system, noting that stablecoins may play a role in future cross-border payments [6]. - The development of a robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is considered essential to mitigate risks associated with unregulated markets [7]. Group 5: Renminbi Internationalization - The approach taken by Chinese authorities to promote the internationalization of the renminbi is viewed as correct, focusing initially on cross-border trade settlements and building a global clearing system [8]. - Future efforts should continue to be cautious and patient, as the internationalization of the renminbi is a gradual process [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. faces a "dilemma" regarding the dollar, balancing between maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency and addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6][15]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, particularly the dollar's role in international trade [1][5]. - There are two main channels connecting trade disputes to currency: traditional exchange rates and the impact of high domestic savings rates in countries like China [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar's Dilemma - The U.S. aims to promote a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and improve trade balances while also wanting to maintain its geopolitical leverage through the dollar [6][15]. - Achieving both objectives is seen as unlikely, as the dollar will have to concede some of its global dominance [6][15]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - Four currencies are identified as potential challengers to the dollar: the euro, the renminbi, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), and digital currencies [8][9][12]. - The euro faces challenges related to the EU's internal dynamics and lacks a corresponding fiscal authority [8]. - The renminbi has made progress in internationalization but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [9][10]. Group 4: Opportunities for Reform - The current situation presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, particularly if the U.S. allows the dollar to retreat from its dominant position [13][14]. - The role of SDR could be expanded to provide a more stable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [12][14]. Group 5: Conditions for Currency as Reserve - For a currency to serve as a reserve, it must provide stable and secure assets, which is currently a challenge for alternatives to the dollar [19][20]. - The global demand for reserve currencies is complex, and the scale of dollar assets may not reflect the actual need for reserve currencies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflicting goals of the United States regarding the dollar, highlighting the dilemma of maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency while also addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, which can be analyzed through two main channels: exchange rates and savings rate spillover [3][5]. - For smaller countries, exchange rates are effective tools for balancing international payments, but for major economies like the U.S., the impact of exchange rates is limited [3][5]. - The high domestic savings rate in Asia, particularly China, contributes to trade imbalances and strong foreign investment, which is linked to currency dynamics [3][5]. Group 2: U.S. Dilemma with the Dollar - The U.S. faces a dual challenge: promoting a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and trade balance while also using the dollar as a geopolitical tool [6][11]. - There is a contradiction in U.S. policy where it desires a weaker dollar for domestic benefits but also aims to maintain its global dominance [6][11]. - Achieving both objectives simultaneously is deemed unlikely, suggesting that the U.S. may have to concede some of its dollar dominance [6][11]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - The euro is the second-largest currency in the SDR basket but faces challenges such as unclear fiscal authority and insufficient market integration [9]. - The renminbi has made strides in internationalization, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [10][11]. - The SDR could play a larger role in the international monetary system if it is recognized as a viable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [13][14]. Group 4: Conditions for Other Currencies - For other currencies to gain prominence, they must meet certain conditions, such as having a significant trade deficit to export currency effectively [18][20]. - The ability to provide stable and secure assets is crucial for any currency aspiring to be a reserve currency, with the dollar currently seen as the most stable option [20][21]. - The global demand for reserve currencies must also be assessed, as the current volume of dollar-denominated assets may not reflect actual reserve needs [22]. Group 5: Opportunities for Reform - The current dilemma facing the dollar presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, contingent on the willingness of the U.S. to adapt its stance [14][16]. - The potential for SDR to take on a more significant role hinges on achieving consensus among major economies and addressing the structural issues within the current system [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for dialogue and cooperation among all parties to improve global financial governance, guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era [1][2]. Group 1: Global Governance Initiative - The global governance initiative proposed by Xi Jinping includes five core concepts: sovereign equality, adherence to international law, practice of multilateralism, human-centered approach, and action-oriented focus [2]. - The initiative aims to address the increasing global governance deficit and offers a Chinese solution to the question of who governs, how to govern, and for whom to govern [2]. Group 2: International Monetary System Reform - The international monetary system has evolved historically, with the dominance of currencies reflecting changes in global power dynamics [4]. - The reliance on a single sovereign currency poses inherent instability, as national interests may conflict with global public goods provision [5]. - Discussions on reforming the international monetary system are increasingly driven by geopolitical factors, focusing on reducing dependence on a single currency and promoting a competitive environment among multiple strong currencies [6]. - The potential for a super-sovereign currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR), is discussed, although practical challenges remain in achieving political consensus and expanding its use [7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment System Improvement - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but faces challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [9]. - There is a trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies and new payment systems emerging [10]. - The interoperability of payment systems is improving, and new technologies like blockchain are reshaping traditional payment methods [10]. Group 4: Global Financial Stability System - Post-2008 financial crisis, the global financial safety net has been strengthened, with various regional and bilateral mechanisms established [12]. - Regulatory frameworks have been enhanced to prevent crises, but challenges remain, including fragmented regulations and insufficient oversight of non-bank intermediaries [14]. - A robust international monetary fund is essential for maintaining a diverse and effective global financial safety net [14]. Group 5: Governance of International Financial Organizations - The governance of international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank needs reform to better reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [16][17]. - There is a call for adjustments in voting rights and representation within these organizations to enhance their legitimacy and efficiency [17]. - Strengthening the supervisory role of international financial organizations is crucial for maintaining global economic stability and promoting multilateralism [17].