Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a failure to rebound, with major indices affected by downward pressure from technology stocks, particularly the "Big Seven" tech companies, except for Nvidia, which increased orders from TSMC due to rising demand [1] - The labor market showed resilience as initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, the lowest level since late November, suggesting a potential improvement in employment conditions for December, which may lead to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts for a longer period [2] - The U.S. dollar index has declined over 9% for the year, with expectations that the next Federal Reserve chair may implement significant rate cuts, further weakening the dollar [2] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced significant declines following the CME's announcement of a second margin increase within a week, with silver dropping over 7% and gold falling more than 1% to a two-week low, despite strong annual performance [2] - In 2025, precious metals are projected to achieve their best annual performance since 1979, with silver and platinum prices more than doubling, palladium rising over 70%, and gold increasing over 60% [2] - The overall market dynamics are influenced by profit-taking and portfolio adjustments as fund managers approach year-end, with high overall positions leading to reduced risk appetite [1]

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a slight decline on December 31, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 200 points and the Nasdaq falling approximately 0.4% [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw a more significant drop, with the index declining by 1.4% [4] - Notable declines were observed in electric vehicle manufacturers, with NIO falling nearly 10% and other companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also experiencing significant losses [5][6] Group 2 - The anticipated year-end rally in the US stock market, often referred to as the "Santa Rally," has not materialized, attributed to traders delaying major decisions during the holiday season [9] - Despite a strong performance in 2023 driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, market volatility remains high due to concerns over trade policies and geopolitical tensions [9] - Analysts expect the S&P 500 index to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, but there are concerns about prolonged market fluctuations until corporate earnings catch up with high valuations [10]

Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant drop, with the index falling by 1.4% on December 31, 2023, while major U.S. indices also saw slight declines [2][4][5] - NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto were among the hardest hit, with NIO's stock price dropping nearly 10% [5][6] - The anticipated year-end rally in U.S. stocks, often referred to as the "Santa Rally," has not materialized, attributed to traders delaying major decisions during the holiday season [8] Group 2 - Analysts expect the S&P 500 index to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, but there are concerns about prolonged market fluctuations until corporate earnings catch up with high valuations [9] - The AI sector has been a significant driver of market performance over the past three years, with the S&P 500 rising by 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, although performance among major tech companies has started to diverge [9] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have seen price declines as investors take profits after a historically strong year, compounded by increased margin requirements from CME Group [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is set to close with a lackluster performance, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while the anticipated seasonal rally has failed to materialize [1][2] Market Performance - As of 7:07 AM New York time, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, narrowing the index's 2025 gain to 17%. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.3%, and Dow futures are down 0.1% [1][2] - Silver prices have significantly declined, experiencing four consecutive days of volatility exceeding 5% [1][2] Investor Sentiment - In 2025, optimism surrounding the economic potential of artificial intelligence has driven strong returns for investors, although the journey has been turbulent due to U.S. trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over high valuations [1][2] - As December comes to a close, market momentum has faded, with traders locking in substantial profits before the holidays and deferring major decisions until after the break, leading to the absence of the expected "Santa Claus rally" [1][2] Fund Manager Insights - According to Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank, after a stellar year for the stock market and high positioning in late November, fund managers may have closed positions and adjusted their allocations based on benchmarks [1][2] - The basic expectation is that the bull market will continue, but volatility is expected to increase, ultimately resulting in mid-single-digit returns [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from northbound capital, totaling HKD 38.45 billion, with notable net selling in major stocks like Tencent and China Mobile, while stocks like SMIC and CNOOC saw net buying [1][5]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound capital had a net selling of HKD 38.45 billion on December 30, with HKD 13.27 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 25.18 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net buying included SMIC (00981), CNOOC (00883), and ICBC (01398) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Tencent (00700), and China Mobile (00941) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - SMIC saw a net inflow of HKD 3.49 billion, with a total transaction volume of HKD 35.17 billion [2]. - CNOOC received a net buying of HKD 4.6 billion, with analysts noting a potential stabilization in oil prices due to seasonal demand and OPEC+ production adjustments [5]. - ICBC had a net inflow of HKD 3.56 billion, supported by expectations of stable credit growth in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Sector Trends - The semiconductor sector is gaining attention, with SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor receiving significant net buying, driven by positive market sentiment and government support [4]. - The robotics sector is also attracting investment, with stocks like Sihai Intelligent Control and UBTECH Robotics seeing net inflows, amid expectations of upcoming projects in North America [5]. - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Meituan (03690) experiencing net buying, while Alibaba (09988) and Tencent faced substantial net selling [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts suggesting that while there may be short-term opportunities, the overall environment is still under pressure, particularly for the Hong Kong market [7]. - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong faced significant net selling, indicating a potential lack of confidence in the broader market [7].

Market Performance - Emerging markets showed stronger performance last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.2%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.1%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.7% [9][12] - Among developed markets, the Taiwan Weighted Index had the best performance at +3.1%, while the French CAC40 Index was the weakest at -0.6% [9] - In the emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed the best at +3.9%, while the Indian Sensex30 was the weakest at +0.1% [9] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume in the US and Europe decreased due to the Christmas holiday, with the Hang Seng Index's volatility continuing to decline [23] - The Shanghai Composite Index's trading volume increased to 2.51 billion shares and $564.5 billion, while the Hang Seng Index's trading volume decreased to 5.8 billion shares and $24.4 billion [23] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, with short-selling ratios decreasing to 15.1%, while North American sentiment remained high with the NAAIM Manager Index at 95.1% [23][26] Earnings Expectations - The global energy sector's earnings expectations were significantly revised upwards, while the Hong Kong market's earnings expectations were revised downwards [72] - The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 2063 to 2062, with the energy sector seeing the largest upward revision of +7.1 [72] - In the US market, the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation remained stable at 273, with the energy sector also seeing a slight upward revision of +0.4 [72] Economic Expectations - Economic indicators in the US and Europe showed marginal improvement, with the Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index returning to positive territory [72] - The European Economic Surprise Index also saw a slight increase, supported by stable ECB rate policies and reduced geopolitical tensions [72] - In contrast, the Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index declined, influenced by weak industrial profit growth and fluctuating policy expectations [72] Fund Flows - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts for 2026 remains divided, with hawkish officials advocating for caution due to inflation concerns [55] - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may cut rates approximately twice in 2026, unchanged from the previous week [55] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into China, the US, South Korea, India, and Europe, with Hong Kong experiencing accelerated capital inflows [66][67]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.35%, and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq falling by 0.51% and 0.50% respectively [1][2]. Market Structure and Liquidity - The current trading day is in the last week of 2025, with most institutional traders and quantitative fund managers on holiday, leading to extremely low trading volumes [3]. - This liquidity vacuum has resulted in a technical-driven sell-off, where the lack of buyers during a downturn exacerbates price declines, typically not leading to a deep bear market [3]. Tesla's Demand Concerns - Tesla led the decline among the tech giants, with a drop of over 3% due to a significant reduction in a contract with its South Korean supplier L&F, which saw a 99% cut from 3.83 trillion KRW to just 973 million KRW [4][6]. - This drastic order revision highlights challenges in the Cybertruck project and raises concerns about slowing global electric vehicle demand and changes in government subsidy policies [6]. Silver and Gold Market Impact - Silver experienced a sharp decline of over 8%, while gold also fell from historical highs, attributed to liquidity management issues and profit-taking by institutions ahead of year-end settlements [10]. - The sell-off in precious metals triggered forced liquidations in the stock market, particularly affecting tech stocks, thereby increasing the downward pressure on U.S. equities [10]. Microsoft’s Strategic Shift - Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to design custom AI chips, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia and enhance supply chain autonomy [11]. - This move indicates a significant shift in the semiconductor industry, potentially reshaping profit distribution by moving towards more customized solutions [11]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Optimism in the market has reached unprecedented levels, with no analysts predicting a decline in the stock market for 2026, suggesting a potential record for consecutive annual gains [14][19]. - Morgan Stanley has shifted from a pessimistic outlook to predicting the S&P 500 could rise to 7500 points, driven by resilient economic growth and declining inflation [19][20]. Risks and Concerns - Despite the prevailing optimism, some analysts express caution regarding the lack of dissenting opinions in market predictions, which could indicate an impending market correction [21]. - Key risks identified include the possibility of prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, potential tariff actions affecting supply chains, and corporate executives possibly lowering earnings forecasts after strong growth [21].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.71% to close at 25,635.23 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.3% at 5,483.01 points, and the China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.26% to 8,891.71 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down 1.85%, Tencent Holdings down 1.08%, and JD Group down 0.71%. However, Netease and Meituan saw gains of 1.41% and 0.97%, respectively [1] - Gold stocks fell significantly, with WanGuo Gold Group dropping over 6% and several others declining more than 5% [1] - Robotics stocks led the market, with MicroPort Robotics-B rising over 25% and UBTECH increasing by over 9% [1] - Automotive stocks performed well, with NIO up over 4% and both Xpeng Motors and BYD close to 4% [1] - Gaming stocks generally fell, with MGM China dropping over 17%, while Chinese brokerage stocks also saw declines, with China International Capital Corporation down over 2% [1] Company News - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) repurchased 464,000 shares for approximately HKD 29.99 million at prices between HKD 64.05 and HKD 64.90 [2] - Bank of China (03988.HK) completed the issuance of HKD 50 billion in tier-2 capital bonds to supplement its tier-2 capital [2] - Weisheng Holdings (03393.HK) entered into a capital increase agreement with Boyu Capital, raising RMB 380 million for new shares [2] - Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (02186.HK) granted exclusive commercialization rights for three long-acting injectable antipsychotic products to Enhua in mainland China [3] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) had its SHR-A1904 injection included in the list of breakthrough therapy products by the drug review center [4] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.056 million shares for approximately HKD 636 million at prices between HKD 598 and HKD 604 [6] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) repurchased 1.96 million shares for approximately HKD 27.23 million at prices between HKD 13.82 and HKD 13.95 [7] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) repurchased 3.8 million shares for approximately HKD 149 million at prices between HKD 39.08 and HKD 39.26 [8] - Youzhiyou Biotechnology-B (02496.HK) received IND approval from NMPA for Y225 (Aimeisai monoclonal antibody injection) [9] - MicroPort Robotics-B (02252.HK) achieved a global commercialization milestone with over 100 installations of its surgical robots [10] - China Huadian Corporation (01071.HK) completed the construction and operation of two 660,000 kW ultra-supercritical units at the Huadian Longkou Phase IV project [11] - Energy International Investment (00353.HK) plans to issue a total of 1.035 billion shares at an approximately 18.33% discount, raising about HKD 254 million [12] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival in 2026, driven by internal and external economic factors [13] - Huatai Securities notes that the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with supply and demand pressures expected to persist towards the end of the year [14] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund's chief economist Yang Delong predicts that the Hong Kong stock market will regain upward momentum in 2026, driven by capital inflows and a potential long-term bull market [15]

Group 1 - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, with the first expected in June [1][3] - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, closing just 1% shy of the 7000-point mark, driven by strong investor sentiment [1][4] - The U.S. economy showed robust growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.3% [2] Group 2 - The labor market remains stable, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 214,000, down from 224,000 the previous week [2][3] - Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months, with the current business conditions rating turning negative for the first time since September 2024 [2] - The holiday season is expected to bring a "Santa Claus rally," with historical data indicating an average increase of 1.3% in the S&P 500 during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next [4] Group 3 - The technology sector has shown weakness recently, with a cumulative decline of over 2% since early November, while other sectors like financials and healthcare have performed well [5] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, driven by strong economic fundamentals and expectations of monetary policy easing [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the electronic sector, with a notable increase in stock prices driven by improved sentiment around AI and strong performance in semiconductor and consumer electronics segments [3][4] - The storage market continues to show high demand, with price increases for NAND flash wafers and SSDs, reflecting a bullish outlook for the sector [6][7] Market Review - The electronic industry index rose by 4.71% this week, with semiconductors up 5.07% and consumer electronics increasing by 3.48%. Notable stock performances include SK Hynix rising by 9.51% and Micron by 7.10% [3][4] - The report highlights the impact of the Christmas season on tech stocks, contributing to overall market gains [3] Industry Updates - New product launches are driving market excitement, including Samsung's first 2nm processor and Huawei's nova 15 series, which features advanced technology and performance improvements [4] - Major companies are enhancing their computational power collaborations, with significant projects like Oracle's data center approved in Michigan [5] Pricing Trends - The report notes a continuous upward trend in storage prices, with NAND flash wafer prices increasing by over 10% and SSD prices rising by 15% to 20% [6] - Expectations for price hikes in wafer production are also noted, with companies like SMIC and TSMC implementing price adjustments [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several beneficiaries from the current market conditions, including SMIC, Beijing Junzheng, and Huafeng Technology, among others [7]