· 2025 年 10 月 6 日 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 46,758.28 | 0.51% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,715.79 | 0.01% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 22,780.51 | -0.28% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 9,491.25 | 0.67% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 24,378.80 | -0.18% | | 日经 225 指数 | 45,769.50 | 1.85% | | 台湾加权指数 | 26,761.06 | 1.45% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,882.78 | 0.52% | | 深证成指 | 13,526.51 | 0.35% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 27,140.92 | -0.54% | | 国企指数 | 9,658.34 | -0.68% | | 红筹指数 | 4,001.50 | -0.67% | | 恒生科技指数 | 6,622.85 | -0.90% | | AH 股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system serves as a crucial mechanism for allowing qualified foreign financial institutions to invest in China's domestic securities market, enhancing the connection between Chinese and international capital markets [1] Group 1: QFII System Overview - The QFII system has been continuously optimized since its implementation, with an expanding investment scope and more flexible quota management [1] - Recent years have seen a reduction in the qualification threshold and simplification of processes for QFII, attracting more international asset management companies, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds [1] - These foreign institutions typically possess mature investment research systems and long-term investment philosophies, making their movements a significant indicator of foreign confidence in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Impact of Foreign Investment - Foreign capital flowing through the QFII channel brings incremental funds to the market, enhancing market liquidity [1] - The focus on fundamentals and value investing by foreign investors contributes to more rational investment behavior in the market [1] - However, it is important to approach foreign capital flows with a rational perspective, as short-term movements are influenced by global monetary policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical factors, which do not necessarily indicate long-term trends [1] Group 3: Investment Decision-Making - Ordinary investors should prioritize the overall market dynamics and the intrinsic value of companies, rather than solely focusing on foreign investment activities [2] - The participation of foreign capital enriches market structure, but investment decisions should still be based on individual risk tolerance and asset allocation goals [2] - Maintaining independent judgment and avoiding blind following of trends is essential for navigating the complex and changing market landscape [2]

据彭博社最新报道，全球基金经理正重返中国市场。其中，高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，全球对冲基金 上个月在中国境内股票市场的活跃度为近年来最高；富达国际表示，全球投资者对中国资产的兴趣明显增 加；景顺也增加了对中国股票的配置，同时减持印度股票。 回到市场层面，29日，A股、港股市场全线爆发，深证成指、创业板指、恒生科技指数均大涨超2%。展 望后市，有券商机构认为，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，节后市场 有望继续上行。 当地时间9月29日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.03%，热门中概股集体上涨，哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、新东 方涨超4%，理想汽车、京东涨超3%。 全球基金经理正重返中国市场 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 外资重估中国资产。 美东时间9月29日，据彭博社报道，全球基金经理正重返中国市场，这源于在全球范围内领先的股市反弹 和中国高科技产业的进步。 高盛指出，全球对冲基金上个月在中国境内股票市场的活跃度为近年来最高。 Pacific Investment Management Co.表示，投资者现在更担 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above the 3850-point mark [1][2] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with continuous inflow of funds into the equity market, supported by the gradual shift of household savings towards capital markets and increased foreign investment in A-shares [1][2] - The market is currently in a phase of rebalancing and expectation reconstruction, with a divergence between economic recovery and bullish sentiment [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday is anticipated to lead to a seasonal decline in market activity, but the orderly implementation of policies this year is expected to support performance post-holiday [2]

Market Overview - On September 24, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3836 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64 points, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80% to 13,356.14 points[6] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 23,475 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[6] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, battery, computer equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors performed well, while tourism, banking, coal, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with electronic chemicals, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment leading the gains[6] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.61 times and 49.28 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The trading volume has consistently exceeded 20 trillion yuan in recent days, indicating strong market activity[3] Economic and Policy Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Foreign Investment Trends - In August, foreign investors net bought domestic stocks and bonds, reflecting confidence in Chinese assets[3] - The shift of household savings towards capital markets is creating a continuous source of incremental funds[3] Market Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing high prices, focusing instead on structural optimization to seize market opportunities[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the semiconductor, battery, computer equipment, and securities sectors[3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has unexpectedly lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, which has triggered significant reactions in global markets [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of distress, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 4.5%, and GDP growth at only 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, leading to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts [3] - The impact on the Chinese economy is dual-faceted, with potential benefits from narrowed interest rate differentials attracting foreign capital, while also facing challenges from increased import costs and rising prices of commodities like crude oil and iron ore [5] Group 2 - China's unique advantage lies in its complete industrial chain system, which can capitalize on the increased consumer demand stimulated by U.S. rate cuts, as evidenced by the strong export orders for new energy vehicles and a 6.8% year-on-year growth in machinery and electrical products exports [7] - The Chinese central bank is expected to formulate policies based on domestic data such as PMI and CPI, rather than blindly following foreign trends, indicating a strategic approach to managing economic fluctuations caused by U.S. monetary policy adjustments [7]

贝莱德iShares亚太(除日本外)固定收益产品策略主管Koay Hui Sien表示，在经历一轮惨烈抛售之后，印 度债券为国际投资者提供了具有吸引力的机会。Koay表示，印度与美国10年期国债收益率利差已接近 年内最阔水平，存在反转潜力。上月罕见的主权评级上调也增强了印度债券的吸引力。"当前市场环境 有利于外资重新流入，"Koay表示，特别是考虑到美联储到年底的降息路径。美联储周三实施降息并暗 示今年可能进一步放松政策，这使其他国家债券相比之下更具吸引力。在经历数月因关税担忧导致国际 需求低迷后，全球资金正开始回流。8月外资对符合指数纳入资格的印度债券购买量达到1040亿卢比(12 亿美元)，创3月以来最高水平——尽管同期印度10年期国债收益率上升19个基点，创三年来最大月度涨 幅。 ...

（责任编辑：华青剑） "综合各类影响因素，我们判断短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态。"王青说。 9月17日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.1，为2024年11月7日以来首次。Wind数据显示，截至 《证券日报》记者发稿时，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.0999，亦创去年11月7日以来新高；9 月份以来，离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅达0.26%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近日人民币对美元汇率走高，主要是美联储9月份降息已是"板 上钉钉"，且市场对年底前美联储还可能有进一步较大幅度降息的预期升温，美元显著下行，这给包括 人民币在内的非美货币带来较强的被动升值动能。另外，近期国内股市保持强势，外资加速流入。在带 动结汇需求增加的同时，也在改善汇市情绪。同时，近期人民币中间价继续在偏强方向调控。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback of dividend indices since late August may present an attractive allocation window for investors, particularly in a low-risk environment where dividend assets remain appealing to risk-averse funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed 3,800 points, leading to a continuous pullback in dividend indices, specifically the Dividend ETF (510880) and Low Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) [1]. - From August 27 to September 15, the Dividend ETF and Low Volatility Dividend ETF saw significant trading volume, with daily transaction amounts exceeding 500 million yuan on September 15 [1]. - The Dividend ETF (510880) recorded a net inflow of 1.558 billion yuan over 12 out of 14 trading days during the same period, indicating a growing demand for dividend assets amid market fluctuations [1]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics and Investor Interest - The Dividend ETF (510880) and Low Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) have become key options for investors, with sizes of 19.091 billion yuan and 20.415 billion yuan respectively, making them among the few dividend-themed ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in A-share market [2]. - As of September 15, the Dividend ETF (510880) had 421,830 million yuan in total management scale, reflecting the strong interest from investors [4]. - The number of holders for the Dividend ETF reached 421,800, while the Low Volatility Dividend ETF's linked funds had a total of 1,163,100 holders, showcasing their popularity in the market [3]. Group 3: External Factors Influencing Investment - Recent reports indicate a surge in foreign investment interest in the Chinese market, with significant net inflows recorded in August, particularly in high-dividend assets, technology growth, and high-end manufacturing sectors [2]. - The strong inflow of foreign capital is expected to continue supporting the valuation recovery of high-quality dividend assets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weak USD index, strong domestic equity market performance, and favorable monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, particularly the indication of a potential rate cut in September, has significantly impacted the currency market, leading to a nearly 10% decline in the USD index since the beginning of the year [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is partly due to the accelerated rise in the RMB/USD central parity rate, with the central bank recently issuing 45 billion yuan in offshore RMB central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity [3][4]. Internal Factors - The recovery of China's capital market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, with significant increases in major stock indices: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% in August [4]. - Continuous expansion of the trade surplus in recent months has provided real demand-side support for the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing improvement in China's economic fundamentals, driven by structural transformation and supportive policies, is expected to provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely maintain a steady trend, with expectations of a gradual convergence of onshore, offshore, and central parity rates [5].