日本媒体和专家认为，美国对汽车类产品加征关税对日本出口影响巨大。为对冲美关税政策影响，日本 汽车制造商被迫降价，盈利空间被严重挤压。 美国4月起对日本进口汽车和零部件加征25%关税，对其他多数货品则课征10%关税，6月初又把钢铁进 口关税调高一倍至50%。汽车和零部件约占日本对美出口总额的1/3。丰田汽车本月稍早警告，美国关 税恐使该公司营运利润锐减1.4万亿日元。 美国关税持续冲击全球贸易，日本出口也受到沉重打击。最新数据显示，日本7月出口创下四年多来最 大跌幅。 日本财务省8月20日公布的7月贸易统计结果显示，7月出口额较去年同期下滑2.6%，跌幅大于市场原估 的2.1%，主要受汽车、汽车零件和钢铁拖累，创2021年2月以来最大跌幅。不过，出口量增加了1.2%， 显示出口商仍靠调降售价来吸收美国关税成本。因原油、煤炭和液化天然气进口均出现两位数下滑，进 口额同比减少7.5%至9.48万亿日元。7月日本贸易逆差达1175亿日元。 日本7月对美出口额同比减少10.1%，其中汽车和零部件出口额分别大减28.4%和17.4%。就出口量来 看，日本对美汽车出口只减少3.2%，可见车厂正自行吸收部分关税以支撑销售。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, despite current global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainties [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - 83% of the 72 respondents in the survey expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meetings on July 30-31 and in September [1] - 54% of respondents anticipate that borrowing costs will rise from 0.50% to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, a notable increase from the 48% who expected a rate hike in the previous June survey [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weak wage data in Japan complicates the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, with inflation-adjusted wages declining by 2.9% year-on-year in May compared to a 2.0% drop in April [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages have shown a significant decline, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating challenges in wage growth [1] - The economic outlook for Japan is described as "very challenging" due to stalled trade negotiations with the United States and potential tariff increases on Japanese goods [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan faces increasing difficulties in raising interest rates as wage growth remains sluggish, complicating its monetary policy decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, there is still an expectation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, although further declines in wages could hinder this decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's board member Takeda Soichi stated that it is impossible to determine how long the Bank of Japan can wait before raising interest rates based on preset views [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it cannot make definitive judgments regarding the timing of potential interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is currently in a phase of pausing interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Takeda Soichi indicated that the central bank is not planning to raise interest rates at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated it to remain unchanged at 14.75% [1] Group 1 - The decision to increase the interest rate indicates a shift in monetary policy aimed at controlling inflation [1] - The unexpected rate hike may impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes such as real estate and consumer finance [1] - Analysts will need to reassess their forecasts for economic growth and inflation in light of this new monetary policy stance [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Asahi Noguchi believes there is no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market despite recent significant increases in ultra-long-term bond yields, describing the volatility as "rapid but not unusual" [1] - Noguchi emphasizes the necessity to pause interest rate hikes until the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy becomes clearer, indicating that current economic uncertainty makes rate adjustments meaningless [1][3] - The recent rise in ultra-long-term bond yields has reached historical highs, influenced by political calls for large-scale fiscal spending, while short-term bond yields remain stable due to reduced expectations for rate hikes [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan exited its large-scale stimulus program last year, which included maintaining bond yields around zero, and raised the short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing progress in achieving the 2% inflation target [2] - In the upcoming policy meeting, the Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term evaluation of its bond reduction plan and consider strategies for after April 2026, with Noguchi suggesting no major adjustments are necessary at this time [3] - Concerns over global economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs have led the Bank of Japan to significantly lower its growth forecasts, raising questions about the sustainability of wage increases supporting consumption and the overall economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that two-thirds of Japanese companies are urging the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to the impact of Trump's tariff measures [1] Group 1 - The survey reflects concerns among Japanese businesses regarding the economic implications of U.S. tariffs [1] - Companies are worried that rising interest rates could further strain their operations amid the ongoing trade tensions [1] - The sentiment among Japanese firms highlights the potential for a slowdown in economic growth if the Bank of Japan proceeds with rate increases [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has maintained strength against the weak US dollar for the third consecutive day, with the latest USD/JPY exchange rate at 146.2680, down 0.25% [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again, supported by weakened risk sentiment and new dollar sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair [1] - The BoJ's recent monetary policy meeting summary expressed concerns about US trade policies potentially harming Japan's economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown to near potential growth levels before a gradual recovery [1] Group 2 - Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is lower than the previous month's 4.2%, but this had limited impact on the yen [2] - The US dollar is struggling to attract buyers due to lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice in 2025 [2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% year-on-year in April, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, in line with expectations [2] Group 3 - The cloud chart indicators for the USD/JPY exchange rate limit upward movement, with declines stalling near the May 1 high [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.60 (cloud bottom), 147.77 (Bollinger band upper limit), and 148.65 to 148.70 (December 3 and March 31 lows) [3] - Support levels are noted at 145.73 (May 1 high), 145.50 (conversion line), and 145 (psychological level) [3]