来源：金融界AI电报 日本2026年度工资谈判的早期迹象表明，尽管面临美国关税对利润构成压力，日本仍将迎来新一轮的稳 健加薪，这为日本央行进一步加息提供支持。日本央行行长植田和男表示希望获得更多一点数据，以了 解明年工资谈判的初步态势。工会已经明确表示将再次要求大幅加薪。工资持续增长将支撑民间消费， 使日本央行有信心在不破坏经济复苏的情况下提高利率。尽管近年来工资大幅增长，但由于核心消费通 胀率一直高于央行2%的目标，实质工资增长仍为负值。拥有700万会员的日本劳动组合总连合会正寻求 在2026年将工资提高5%或更多。这正是RENGO在2025年提出的要求，最后促成34年来最大的一次加 薪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis in Q3 2025, marking the first economic shrinkage in six quarters [1] Economic Data - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The annualized decline of 1.8% indicates a significant downturn in economic performance [1] Trade Relations - In September, a trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, resulting in a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese products entering the US [1] Government Response - The Japanese government is formulating a stimulus plan to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households [1] - The recent GDP data may complicate the Bank of Japan's plans for further interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economist Takushi Aida, a member of Japan's key advisory committee, suggests that the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates in December and wait until January to support the fragile economy [1] Economic Outlook - Aida indicates that the Japanese economy may have contracted in the third quarter, highlighting the risks associated with a potential rate hike in December [1] - He emphasizes the need for substantial government spending to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households until real income recovers [1] Policy Recommendations - Aida argues that a December rate hike would contradict the government's efforts to stimulate the economy through large-scale spending [1] - He believes that if the Bank of Japan anticipates robust economic growth by the fiscal year 2026, a rate increase in January would be a more viable option [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - Barclays suggests that traders are underestimating the likelihood of an unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, predicting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1] - According to Capital Economics, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline further in the coming months, potentially leading to another rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] - DBS Bank analysts indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points in December, depending on wage negotiations and the Federal Reserve's actions [3] - UOB economists believe that the Bank of Thailand may need to cut rates more than expected to combat deflation risks, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in December and Q1 of next year [5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Eurozone inflation decreased from 2.2% in September to 2.1% in October, attributed to falling energy and food prices, while core inflation remained at 2.4% [2] - The European Central Bank's survey indicates that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target in the coming years, with economic growth projected to gradually recover [2] - Thailand's consumer prices have fallen for six consecutive months, raising concerns about deflation driven by weak bank credit and high private sector leverage [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Sentiment - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will fall to 160 against the US dollar by year-end, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan [4] - A report from Bank of America highlights a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week, following a previous week of significant inflows [6]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous meetings of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to have significant implications for global markets, particularly in terms of monetary policy and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Meetings - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its two-day meeting, which concludes at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday [1]. - The Bank of Canada is also expected to announce a rate decision shortly before the Fed, with similar expectations for a rate cut [3]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will hold meetings concurrently, with decisions expected on Thursday [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The coordinated actions of these central banks could lead to a more accommodative global funding environment, especially with the Fed's involvement, which influences the value of the US dollar [2]. - A weaker dollar could reduce the price competitiveness of US goods overseas, as 54% of global trade invoices are denominated in dollars [2]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - Despite the potential for coordinated rate cuts, there is no clear indication of synchronized economic shifts among the countries involved [2]. - The Fed is expected to cut rates to support a weakening US job market, while the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current policy stance due to persistent inflation in the services sector [2][4]. - The Bank of Canada faces a challenging decision regarding rate cuts due to strong employment data and stubborn inflation [3]. Group 4: Diverging Priorities - Different central banks are prioritizing various economic issues, with some focusing on economic support and others on inflation control [4]. - The potential for further rate cuts by the Fed, combined with strong corporate earnings, may support risk assets in the market [4].

Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo's 23 wards increased by 2.5% year-on-year in September, reaching a value of 110.0 [1] Price Drivers - The primary driver for the CPI increase was the rise in food prices, with notable increases including: - Regular rice prices up by 46.9% year-on-year - Rice balls up by 17.7% - Sushi prices increased by 10.0% - Chocolate prices surged by 53.8% - Coffee bean prices rose by 47.8% - Chicken prices increased by 14.1% - Egg prices up by 13.7% [1] Economic Outlook - Economists anticipate that the inflation rate in Japan will begin to slow down in the latter half of the year, raising questions about the timing of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1]

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose to a historical high of over 45,000 points but then turned down, closing at 44,678.39 points, a decrease of 0.20% [2][1] - The U.S. government announced a reduction in tariffs on Japanese cars to 15%, down from the previous 25%, effective from September 16 [4][5] - This tariff reduction aligns with President Trump's executive order to implement a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which sets a baseline tariff of 15% on most Japanese imports [5] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its upcoming meeting, with predictions suggesting that any rate hike may not occur until January 2026 [6][6] - Economic reports indicate that Japan's exports and production are showing signs of weakness, particularly in the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decision [6] - The market is optimistic about the potential election of a new Prime Minister, with candidates like Sanae Takaichi advocating for increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, which could positively impact Japanese stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market experienced fluctuations following positive news, including the reduction of U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars and expectations that the Bank of Japan may halt interest rate hikes [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index initially surged past the 45,000 mark, reaching a historical high before reversing direction and declining [1][3]. - As of the latest report, the Nikkei 225 index was down 0.20%, standing at 44,678.39 points [3]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Changes - The U.S. government announced a reduction in import tariffs on Japanese cars from 25% to 15%, effective from September 16 [5]. - This tariff adjustment aligns with the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, including automobiles and parts [5]. Group 3: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during the upcoming meeting, with analysts suggesting that any rate hike may not occur until January 2026 [6][7]. - Economic indicators show a decline in exports and industrial output, particularly in the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged [7]. Group 4: Political Factors - The market is optimistic about the upcoming leadership election in Japan, with former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi being a leading candidate who supports increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [8]. - The ruling party plans to announce the presidential election on September 22, with voting scheduled for October 4 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see major decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England regarding interest rates, with expectations of rate cuts primarily driven by labor market weaknesses and inflation concerns [2][3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting on September 16-17, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [3][4]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [3][4]. - Market expectations suggest a 76% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first cut anticipated in September [3][4]. - Analysts indicate that the Fed's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with political pressures also influencing its decisions [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7]. - Political uncertainty has increased following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which may affect the Bank of Japan's future monetary policy decisions [6][7]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the rate will remain unchanged [7]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, with a 5-4 vote reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [6][8]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and influence future monetary policy [8]. - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor has indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [8]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the rate down to 2.5% [9]. - Recent economic indicators, including a rise in unemployment and a contraction in GDP, suggest significant downward pressure on the Canadian economy [9]. - Analysts believe that the Bank of Canada will adopt a cautious approach, potentially implementing further cuts in October due to ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S. [9].

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering prices [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4%, although the volume of car exports only fell by 3.2% [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, and increased steel tariffs to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Toyota warned that U.S. tariffs could lead to a reduction in operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen [1] Group 3 - A trade agreement reached at the end of July is expected to reduce tariffs on cars and most goods to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, which may support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates later this year, although the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs will be a key consideration [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance in the upcoming September meeting, as the effects of tariffs on export volumes become more apparent [3]