以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者郑远方 科创板日报 . 不过，现货价与合约价情况不同，一线OEM与普通OEM的成本也不尽相同。 美银指出，DRAM现货与合约价格仍存在明显落差。一线OEM拿到的DRAM合约价格仍大致在每GB 10~20美元区间，远低于现货市场水 准， 现货价格后续可能朝合约价格回归。 部分模组厂也表示，若DDR4或DDR5价格回落至20~30美元区间，不论容量或规格，市场仍具备明显追加采购动能。 美银指出， 目前不好将这次回调定义为"产业反转"或是"硬着陆"的早期信号，但短期价格波动已开始反映终端成本。 回调是短暂的，从机构预期来看，涨价依旧是存储产业的"主旋律"。 TrendForce今日发布的存储产业调查显示， 2026年第一季AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球存储器供需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减，全面 上修第一季DRAM、NAND Flash各产品价格环比增幅， 预估整体Conventional DRAM合约价将从一月初公布的55%~60%环比增幅，改 为上涨90%~95%，NAND Flash合约价则从环比增幅33%~38%上调至55%~60%，并且不排除仍有进一步上调空间。 此外，美银已 ...

2026年1月30日早盘，芯片板块盘中震荡，截至11:14，上证科创板芯片指数上涨0.50%，成分股仕佳光 子上涨7.31%，芯原股份上涨5.38%，华峰测控上涨3.95%，澜起科技上涨2.65%，联芸科技上涨2.60%。 科创芯片ETF（588200）跟踪上证科创板芯片指数，是布局科创板芯片板块的便利工具。 没有股票账户的场外投资者可以通过科创芯片ETF联接基金（017470）关注国产芯片投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，上证科创板芯片指数前十大权重股分别为中芯国际、海光信息、寒武 纪、澜起科技、中微公司、拓荆科技、芯原股份、华虹公司、沪硅产业、东芯股份，前十大权重股合计 占比57.76%。 消息方面，阿里明确"云+AI+芯片"战略，平头哥真武PPU累计出货量已达数十万片，在国产GPU厂商中 属于第一梯队。此外，Wind数据显示，截至1月29日17时，近250家科创板公司"透底"2025年业绩相关 情况，其中125家公司预计实现盈利，占比约五成。从归母净利润增幅看，67家公司同比预计实现正增 长（剔除扭亏），其中29家公司业绩实现倍增。从细分行业和属性来看，受益于市场需求复苏、主业提 质增效 ...

刚刚，苹果再次交出了一份"壕无人性"的霸气财报，还花近20亿美元收购了一家以色列AI创企Q.AI。 智东西1月30日消息，今天，苹果2026财年一季度（自然年2025年第四季度）财报正式发布，其营收为1438亿美元（约合人民币9991亿元），同比增长 16%，净利润421亿美元（约合人民币2925亿元），同比增长15.9%。 | 指标 | 2026 财年 Q1 (百万美元) | 2025 财年 Q1 (百万美元) | 同比增长率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收 | 143756 | 124300 | 15.65% | | 净利润 | 42097 | 36330 | 15.87% | ▲苹果2026财年一季度营收及净利润情况，数据来源：苹果财报 苹果又双叒一次创造了新的季度营收记录，9991亿元与万亿已极为接近。这次苹果每个细分市场的营收都创下了新纪录，服务业务直接突破了300亿美元 大关。 苹果的运营现金流更是达到了540亿美元（约合人民币3752亿元），相比去年同期暴涨了80%。首席财务官Kevan Parekh提到，苹果每股收益增长了19%， 同样创下了新纪录。 | Ac ...

Core Insights - The smartphone market in 2026 is facing significant changes due to rising prices and supply chain challenges, with manufacturers needing to enhance their collaborative response capabilities [1] - The competition is shifting from merely pricing and configuration to a multidimensional battle involving supply chain resilience, cost control, AI technology implementation, and new hardware innovation [1] Supply Chain and Cost Dynamics - The ongoing rise in storage prices is creating pressure on manufacturers, leading them to reconsider their pricing strategies and cost structures [2][3] - Smaller manufacturers, particularly those targeting the budget segment, are under greater pressure compared to larger brands that can afford to maintain their supply chains [2] - The impact of rising storage costs is significant, particularly for models priced under $100, which may face price increases, while higher-end models can offset costs through adjustments in configuration and marketing expenses [2][3] New Hardware and AI Integration - The exploration of new hardware forms, such as foldable phones and smart glasses, is becoming crucial as the smartphone market matures [4][5] - The global foldable phone shipment is expected to rise significantly in 2026, driven largely by Apple's entry into the market [4] - AI technology is increasingly influencing the development of new products, with a focus on optimizing performance and user experience in smart glasses and handheld imaging devices [8][9] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The first half of 2026 will be critical for smartphone brands to adjust their production and product structures in response to rising costs [3] - The rapid evolution of AI technology is expected to lead to a diverse range of new smart terminal products, enhancing market prospects for 2026 [8] - Collaboration and flexibility in product development are essential for companies to meet market demands and consumer expectations effectively [9]

截至2026年1月28日 13点24分，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数（950125）下跌0.69%。成分股方 面涨跌互现，神工股份领涨4.59%，欧莱新材上涨4.29%，盛美上海上涨2.85%；兴福电子领跌5.19%， 艾森股份下跌5.04%，耐科装备下跌3.60%。科创半导体ETF（588170）下跌0.85%，最新报价1.86元。 东海证券认为，当前电子行业需求持续复苏，供给有效出清，存储芯片价格上涨，我国国产化力度超预 期。建议关注AI算力、AIOT、半导体设备、关键零部件和存储涨价等结构性机会。 截至2026年1月28日 13点26分，中证半导体材料设备主题指数（931743）下跌0.61%。成分股方面涨跌 互现，康强电子领涨9.98%，金海通上涨5.91%，神工股份上涨4.27%；江化微领跌7.68%，艾森股份下 跌5.45%，珂玛科技下跌4.38%。半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）下跌0.60%，最新报价1.99元。 半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）及其联接基金（A类：020356；C类：020357），指数中半导体设备 （63%）、半导体材料（24%）占比靠前，充分聚焦半导体上游。 ...

【国金计算机&科技】协创数据：存储/云涨价直接受益，业绩弹性巨大，2026策马狂骉 #英伟达增持CoreWeave_AWS云涨价15%_公司作为算租龙头_赛道景气度加速抬升。 ——英伟达宣布扩大与CoreWeave长期合作，助力其加速建设超5GW的AI工厂，并以每股87.20美元投资20亿美元 购买CoreWeave的A类普通股。 #英伟达增持CoreWeave_AWS云涨价15%_公司作为算租龙头_赛道景气度加速抬升。 ——英伟达宣布扩大与CoreWeave长期合作，助力其加速建设超5GW的AI工厂，并以每股87.20美元投资20亿美元 购买CoreWeave的A类普通股。 ——AWS宣布对其AI专用算力服务实施约15%的涨价，打破20年来全球云计算"只降不涨"的规律。 ——公司 【国金计算机&科技】协创数据：存储/云涨价直接受益，业绩弹性巨大，2026策马狂骉 ——公司从存储大厂原厂拿颗粒做成模组、回收海外服务器的存储模组，下游服务头部终端大厂和云大厂，存储 价格水涨船高态势下，利润弹性极大。24年公司存储收入44.57亿元，同比增长92.4%，25和26年在存储涨价趋势 带动下，有望进一步高速增长，且涨 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant price increases due to supply chain constraints and rising costs, with companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor and Guokewai announcing price hikes of 15%-50% for various products [1] - Guokewai has specifically raised prices for KGD products by 40% for 512Mb, 60% for 1Gb, and 80% for 2Gb, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] - Donghai Securities predicts substantial growth in domestic A-share companies' performance by 2025, driven by the AI wave and recovery in electronic industry demand, alongside rising storage chip prices [1] Group 2 - Ruixin Micro focuses on the design, research, and sales of smart application processors SoC and related chips [2] - Xingchen Technology leads the global market in security visual AI SoC chips while actively expanding into the smart automotive sector [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the K-shaped divergence in the market widened, with the small-cap growth style significantly outperforming the large-cap value style. The core drivers of the divergence include the absence of major systemic risks in the stock market, concerns about domestic policies cooling the market, and positive news in the industrial sector [1]. - In the pre-holiday period, with the macro environment remaining stable and the economy being supported, the "Spring Rally" in the stock market is expected to continue. However, the government's intention to regulate the pace of the slow bull market may affect market volatility. Attention should be paid to the growth targets set in local two sessions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the selection of the new chairman [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 declined 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.06%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.9%, Germany's DAX declined 1.57%, and France's CAC 40 dropped 1.4%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, and the Hang Seng Index declined 0.36%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84% [7]. - **Sector Performance**: In terms of weekly sector performance, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, while banks, communications, and non-bank finance were the top three decliners [1]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 91/114 points, 74/45 points, 179/251 points, and 221/294 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2602, IH2602, IC2602, and IM2602 contracts are 4591 - 4803 points, 2962 - 3099 points, 8398 - 8961 points, and 8219 - 8772 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [3]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking As of January 16, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.14 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.25 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.76 times. The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 50.31 times [12][14]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals Review - **Margin Trading**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts [14]. - **Funding Rates**: Last week, the funding rate remained flat, and the central bank made net injections [15].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The storage and advanced packaging industry is experiencing price increases, with companies like Powertech Technology, HwaCom Systems, and Nanya Technology operating at near full capacity, leading to price hikes of up to 30% expected by 2026, driven by rising raw material costs and client price increases [1][4][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Increase Potential**: Chinese mainland storage packaging companies such as Deep Technology's Peidun, HwaCom, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huada Semiconductor have the potential to raise prices, although market expectations are currently insufficient [1][5]. - **Investment in Advanced Packaging**: SK Hynix's investment of $12.9 billion in an advanced packaging facility indicates a shift in focus towards post-process advanced packaging to enhance customer loyalty and bargaining power [1][6]. - **TSMC's Capital Expenditure**: TSMC has revised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $52-56 billion, with about 10% allocated for advanced packaging, raising market interest in advanced technologies like CoWoS [1][7]. - **Micron's Acquisition**: Micron's $1.8 billion acquisition of Powertech's facility is expected to contribute to production by mid-2027, reflecting sustained high demand for storage [1][8]. Market Dynamics - **Global Market Share**: The two major players hold approximately 10% of the global market share, while China's overall storage demand exceeds 30%, indicating significant growth potential for the Chinese market [1][9]. - **Focus on Key Companies**: Companies linked to the two major players, such as Jinghe, HwaCom, Deep Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics, are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their expected price adjustments [1][10]. Advanced Packaging Developments - **Domestic Capacity Breakthrough**: The domestic advanced packaging sector is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with expected improvements in yield and utilization rates by 2026, which will be crucial for valuation and profitability [1][11]. - **AI Chip Performance**: The performance of AI chips is heavily reliant on 2.5D/3D packaging, with domestic leaders like Huawei, Cambricon, and Haiguang expected to ramp up shipments [1][12]. Price Impact on Storage Backend Market - **Opportunities from Price Increases**: The price hikes in storage are creating significant opportunities, with major clients increasing orders and various product lines experiencing price increases ranging from single to double digits [1][13]. Equipment Sector Opportunities - **Testing Equipment Demand**: The expansion of domestic computing power and production lines is driving demand for testing equipment, which is crucial for advanced packaging [1][14]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Advanced Packaging**: There is a strong recommendation to invest in companies with key advanced packaging capabilities and those positioned to benefit from the domestic computing power support, such as Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Deep Technology [1][15].

摘要 传媒板块：建议关注昆仑万维、每日互动、欢瑞世纪、博纳影业和掌阅 科技，其中博纳影业与字节跳动合作紧密，AI 大电影预计上半年上映， 掌阅科技积极布局 AI 短剧，这些标的涨幅不大但潜力较大。 港股推荐：金蝶国际（AI 收入超预期）、哔哩哔哩（AI 广告受益）、快 手（数据良好，涨幅或被重估），这些标的在港股中弹性最大。 存储行业：处于技术升级、产品涨价和融资周期叠加阶段，DRAM 和 NAND 一季度合约价预计分别上涨 50%-60%和 30%左右，三星退出 MLC NAND 将加剧供需失衡。 存储投资机会：看好存储原厂和设计公司（如兆易创新），存储设备链 （长鑫、长存），以及存储代工和封测（晶合集成、华虹宏力）。 DRAM 和 NAND 在 2026 年整体涨价预期强烈。 存储供需：目前供不应求，原厂盈利压力缓解后短期内难大规模扩产， 预计 2025 年三季度末进入存储甜蜜期，本轮周期扩产概率较低。 国产算力：2026 年是国产先进制程产能上量、超级点商用、ASIC 产品 商用的重要节点，云厂商对国产算力需求持续旺盛，长期框架订单增加。 AI 芯片：H200 入华不改国产替代趋势，国产 GPU 在推理 ...