● 本报记者王鹤静 12月6日，湖南大学股权与创业投资研究院院长、清华大学全球私募股权研究院首席专家刘健钧在中国 证券报主办的"双创融合智启新程——2025科创投资大会"上发表主题演讲时表示，在"十五五"规划建议 的指引下，中国的股权与创投基金将迎来重要发展机遇，概括分为两大层面：一是带来"4+5"产业投资 机遇，即"四大领域加上五个特别产业的投资机遇"；二是从六个方面营造良好的投资环境。 对于四大领域产业投资机遇，刘健钧认为，包括优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，促 进服务业优质高效发展，构建现代化基础设施体系特别是超前建设新型基础设施。 对于资本市场的功能，刘健钧认为，既不能只看重融资功能，又不能只考虑投资功能，两者相互协调， 才能推动资本市场积极、健康、可持续发展。在目前的情况下，国内IPO主渠道还需实行适当的管控， 但为了更好推进创新驱动战略，对于关系到国家重大战略的硬科技企业可以有特别考量。所以，"十五 五"规划建议提出要"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性"。 结合"十五五"规划建议的政策取向，刘健钧认为，"十五五"期间有望形成稳定的宏观税收环境。在具体 行动上，一方面，增强财政可持续性， ...

● 本报记者 王鹤静 政策环境方面，刘健钧表示，国内过去的宏观调控主要是实施积极的财政政策。当前我们面对着百年未 有之大变局，宏观经济调控不仅需要更加积极的宏观政策，必要时还需要采取积极的货币政策，强化逆 周期和跨周期的调节，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 对于资本市场的功能，刘健钧认为，既不能只看重融资功能，又不能只考虑投资功能，两者相互协调， 才能推动资本市场积极、健康、可持续发展。在目前的情况下，国内IPO主渠道还需实行适当的管控， 但为了更好推进创新驱动战略，对于关系到国家重大战略的硬科技企业可以有特别考量。所以，"十五 五"规划建议提出要"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性"。 结合"十五五"规划建议的政策取向，刘健钧认为，"十五五"期间有望形成稳定的宏观税收环境。在具体 行动上，一方面，增强财政可持续性，健全经营所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政策，规范税收优惠政 策，保持合理的宏观税负水平；另一方面，完善收入分配制度，加强税收社会保障转移支付等再分配调 节，规范收入分配秩序和财富积累机制，支持勤劳创新合法致富，稳步扩大中等收入群体规模，合理调 节过高收入。同时，刘健钧认为，不排除可以在创投基金领域推进特别 ...

Economic Growth - The industrial added value is expected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in October 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period[8] - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, widening the decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period[9] - Social retail sales are anticipated to increase by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[22] Trade and Exports - Exports are expected to grow by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous period[12] - Imports are projected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year in October 2025, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous period[33] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to increase by 0.1% year-on-year in October 2025, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[38] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by 2.2% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[42] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are anticipated to reach 600 billion yuan in October 2025, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[44] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year in October 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[48] Currency Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.00 and 7.20 in November 2025, reflecting a trend of gradual appreciation[52]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of properly managing local government debt to ensure stable economic operation, highlighting that debt resolution strategies should adapt to economic cycles and focus on restoring the balance sheets of local governments to stimulate endogenous economic growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Debt and Economic Stability - Local government debt management is crucial for economic stability, as it affects the capacity and willingness of local governments to invest, which in turn influences corporate investment and consumer spending [4][7]. - In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.3%, but faced pressure in the third quarter due to insufficient demand and weakened consumer spending [4][5]. - The relationship between local governments, enterprises, and residents is interdependent, especially during economic downturns, where local governments play a key role in stabilizing expectations and promoting investment [6][7]. Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - The article distinguishes between "debt resolution" and "risk resolution," arguing that simply reducing debt levels can exacerbate risks if it undermines local governments' ability to invest in infrastructure and economic development [11]. - Different debt management strategies should be employed based on economic cycles: "repayment-style debt resolution" during economic upturns and "continuation-style debt resolution" during downturns [12]. - The efficiency and quality of assets corresponding to government debt are critical; thus, the focus should shift from merely controlling debt size to optimizing the structure of debt [13]. Group 3: Structural Issues in Debt Management - There are structural mismatches between the available debt resolution resources and local needs, necessitating a more flexible allocation of debt limits based on actual conditions [18]. - The scale of hidden debts remains unclear, with estimates suggesting that including recognized hidden debts raises the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, indicating a need for better transparency and management [19]. - The current approach to replacing hidden debts with special bonds does not always align with the underlying asset quality, suggesting a need for a more nuanced strategy [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution methods and increasing local debt limits to address immediate financial pressures from real estate adjustments [25][26]. - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden, reforming the fiscal system, and ensuring that financing platforms transition effectively to market-oriented operations [27][28][29].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary measures [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting acknowledges the complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while recognizing the steady progress of China's economy despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][3] - The PBOC calls for large banks to play a key role in supporting the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3] - The meeting stresses the need for effective implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][4] Group 3 - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of aligning monetary policy with the goals of high-quality development and the new development paradigm, focusing on domestic circulation and balancing supply and demand [4] - The meeting underlines the necessity of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stimulate domestic demand and consolidate economic recovery [4]

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook, reflecting a positive assessment of China's economic recovery and stability [1] Economic Performance - Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies that have led to a rebound in economic indicators, stabilizing market expectations and confidence [1] - The sustainability of debt in the medium to long term has improved, contributing to Moody's decision to keep the credit rating stable [1] Global Economic Context - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including insufficient momentum, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and instability in international trade [1] - Despite these uncertainties, China's economy has shown a strong start, with stable production and consumption demand, enhancing the stability and coordination of economic operations [1] Future Outlook - A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work in tandem to support high-quality economic development [1] - China is committed to maintaining confidence and focus on internal matters, regardless of external changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, which may lead to a differentiation in pricing between new and existing bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Bond Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell below 1.7% following the announcement, indicating a market reaction to the new tax policy [1]. - The new policy is expected to reduce the relative allocation value of bond assets in the long term, prompting institutional investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies towards investments with better tax advantages or higher returns [2]. - Existing bonds will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, leading to a scarcity premium for these bonds, while new bonds may need to offer higher coupon rates to compensate for the tax burden [2]. Group 2: Implications for Individual Investors - The impact of the new tax policy on individual investors is expected to be minimal, as personal investors can benefit from a VAT exemption for monthly income below 100,000 yuan [2]. - Experts agree that the policy adjustment will not affect ordinary individual investors significantly, as they are less involved in the bond market compared to institutional investors [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions for Tax Resumption - The initial VAT exemption for bond interest was aimed at boosting investor participation and market efficiency, which has been achieved as evidenced by the high subscription rates for local government bonds [3]. - The current market conditions, characterized by robust demand for government bonds, justify the resumption of VAT on bond interest income [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Regulation - The resumption of VAT on bond interest reflects a flexible tax policy adjustment in response to market changes, balancing fiscal sustainability with macroeconomic regulation needs [4]. - The policy aims to address income distribution between the financial sector and other industries, potentially guiding personal investment towards consumption, thereby stimulating economic growth [4]. - The adjustment is seen as a step towards a more unified tax system that reduces distortions in the bond market, aligning capital allocation with risk and return rather than tax incentives [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, which is expected to impact the bond market dynamics and investor behavior [1][2]. Impact on Investors - The new policy is anticipated to have a minimal effect on individual investors, as they can still benefit from a VAT exemption for interest income below 100,000 yuan per month [2][3]. - Institutional investors may adjust their asset allocation strategies in response to the reduced after-tax yields, potentially shifting towards investments with better tax advantages or higher returns [2][3]. Market Conditions for Tax Resumption - The previous exemption from VAT for bond interest income was a key factor in the growth of the bond market, but the current robust market conditions justify the resumption of taxation [3][4]. - The demand for local government bonds has been strong, with subscription multiples often exceeding 20 times, indicating a healthy market environment for the tax policy change [3]. Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Regulation - The resumption of VAT on bond interest income reflects a flexible tax policy adjustment in response to market changes, balancing fiscal sustainability with macroeconomic regulation needs [4][5]. - The policy aims to address income distribution between the financial sector and other industries, potentially redirecting funds from bond investments to consumer spending, thereby stimulating consumption growth [5]. Tax Neutrality in the Bond Market - The new tax policy aims to reduce the tax burden disparity between different types of bonds, promoting a more neutral tax environment in the bond market [5]. - By aligning the tax treatment of government bonds with corporate bonds, the policy supports the principle of tax neutrality and encourages capital allocation based on risk and return rather than tax incentives [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.5 - 1.05bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 0.50 and 0.45bp to 1.70% and 1.91% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly down by 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.11%, and 0.26% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.62%. [2] - Domestically, economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade friction. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. Exports rebounded unexpectedly due to the export - rush effect under the expectation of tariff friction escalation, and there was a continuous increase in the expectation of fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit applicants declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and with the recent wavering of US - EU tariff policies, the market was still worried about US inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut might be postponed to July. [2] - In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations for a long - term bull market in bonds, but in the short term, due to the phased results of China - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of the benefits of interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, market risk - aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the bond market weakened in a volatile manner. Given the significant differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.735 (-0.11%), 106.030 (-0.03%), 102.408 (-0.02%), and 119.460 (-0.26%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 6265 (up), - 4465 (down), 901 (up), and 3614 (up) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL showed a downward trend in the change of the spread value, while the spreads between different - maturity contracts such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. showed an upward trend. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of T, TS, and TL showed an upward or downward trend, while the net short position of TF decreased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed an upward or downward trend, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0775) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0001). [2] - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 7 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 3 - year bonds decreased, and the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds remained unchanged. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 1.44bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 5.40bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 8.83bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.90bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 4.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 2.10bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 448 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 357 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The Chinese Ministry of Finance believed that this was a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", which proposed measures such as improving the enterprise income distribution system and promoting long - term incentives for listed companies. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On May 28 at 22:00, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be released. - On May 29 at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. - On May 29 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 will be announced. [3]