Core Viewpoint - The launch of the China Securities Commodity Index Company's first sector-based commodity futures index series, the China Securities Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Index Series, aims to objectively reflect the price trends and industrial cycle changes of China's energy and chemical industry, which accounts for over 40% of the global market [1][2]. Group 1: Index Characteristics - The series includes three specific indices: the China Securities Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Price/Index, the China Securities Energy Chemical Finished Product Futures Price/Index, and the China Securities Organic Chemical Product Futures Price/Index [2]. - The indices are based on domestic listed futures varieties, covering important products from both the futures and spot markets, thus providing a comprehensive view of the energy and chemical industry chain [2][3]. - The series focuses on different segments of the industry chain and selects mature products in the futures market, offering reliable market dynamics for enterprises and investors to hedge against price volatility [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - The index design balances macroeconomic commonalities and microeconomic characteristics, aiding production companies in planning production and sales strategies based on market supply and demand trends [3][4]. - The series is expected to enhance the pricing power of Chinese commodities in the global market, filling the gap in pricing benchmarks for the industry chain [4][9]. - The index's comprehensive coverage allows for better price signals, enabling companies to manage production and procurement more effectively [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The correlation and hedging efficiency of six energy and chemical futures varieties have remained above 90% from 2021 to 2024, indicating the importance of the pricing mechanism for upstream and downstream enterprises [5]. - The index provides a more intuitive and macro price signal, facilitating smoother cooperation between suppliers and buyers in the commodity market [6][7]. - The index's introduction is seen as a significant step towards a more systematic and diversified commodity futures market in China, enhancing the overall risk management capabilities of the industry [4][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A+H) has intensified, particularly since 2024, with significant companies like Midea Group, SF Express, and CATL leading this wave, injecting vitality and opportunities into the Hong Kong market while reflecting a profound shift in the pricing power of core Chinese assets towards Hong Kong [1][3][33] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The total fundraising amounts and market capitalizations of key companies listed in Hong Kong show varying performance, with Midea Group raising 31.04 billion HKD and a market cap of 580.4 billion HKD, while CATL raised 35.66 billion HKD with a market cap of 1.41 trillion HKD, indicating a strong market response [2] - The Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index has declined for two consecutive years, with a drop of over 9% this year, suggesting that H-shares are outperforming A-shares [4] - In 2024, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 800 billion HKD, marking a historical high, with southbound trading volume surpassing 50% of the total trading volume of the Hang Seng Index for the first time [7] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing Power - The systematic shift of pricing power towards the Hong Kong market indicates that it has become a key battleground for the valuation of core assets [3][8] - The core assets are concentrated in three main areas: AI technology, new consumption revolution, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant improvements in asset quality [8] - The valuation of leading companies like SF Express is expected to rise, benefiting from the "southward pricing" trend, which is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation framework of the A-share market [22][30] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - SF Express has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and growth potential, with a projected net profit of 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [8][26] - The company's investment in R&D is set to reach 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26] - SF Express's business model is diversified across multiple logistics sectors, which strengthens its market adaptability and revenue stability [26][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing number of leading companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to marginally enhance the pricing power of core assets, which will also influence the A-share market [22] - The trend of institutional investors gaining a larger share in both Hong Kong and A-share markets suggests a shift towards core assets, with a potential for A-shares to align more closely with global valuation standards [21][22] - The ongoing capital flow and the "southward pricing" trend are likely to create a favorable environment for the valuation of technology growth stocks and blue-chip stocks in the A-share market [22][30]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the price fluctuation limit for ST and *ST stocks from 5% to 10% aims to align them with regular stocks, thereby reducing the number of consecutive price limits and enhancing investor protection [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The new regulation is expected to decrease the occurrence of consecutive price limits for problem stocks, which will help in reducing capital accumulation and lowering investment risks [1]. - The current 5% limit has led to market inefficiencies, as seen in the example of *ST Yushun and *ST Yazhen, where stock prices surged over 300% without fundamental improvements [1][2]. - The adjustment is anticipated to improve pricing efficiency and resource allocation in the market, marking a significant step in the deepening of the registration system [1][2]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Markets - The fluctuation limit for regular stocks is 10%, while the previous 5% limit for ST stocks created an arbitrage opportunity, leading to increased market volatility [2]. - In comparison, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market have a 20% fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks, which has resulted in more rational price movements and fewer consecutive price limits [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the long run, the adjustment is expected to lead to a more rational market value for ST stocks and higher pricing efficiency [2][3]. - The new limit may accelerate the exit of poorly performing stocks from the market, as significant negative news could lead to quicker price declines and trigger delisting mechanisms [2]. Group 4: Potential Risks - For small-cap and illiquid ST stocks, the 10% fluctuation limit may exacerbate liquidity risks, leading to larger price swings during significant buy or sell orders [3].

一路 "狂飙" 的增长之路 信用债 ETF 能在短时间内取得如此惊人的成绩，背后离不开一系列关键时间节点的推动和政策的大力支持。今年 1 月，证监会印发的《促进资本市场指 数化投资高质量发展行动方案》犹如一颗信号弹，提出 "稳步拓展债券 ETF"，并部署 "稳妥推出基准做市信用债 ETF""研究将信用债 ETF 纳入债券通用 回购质押库" 等重要举措 。政策东风一吹，市场迅速响应。1 月 7 日，首批 8 只信用债 ETF 同日火热发售，1 月 16 日结束募集，1 月 27 日全部敲定上市 时间，在上交所与深交所相继上市交易，整个过程一气呵成，跑出了资本市场的 "加速度"，募集总规模达 218 亿元，为后续的规模增长奠定了坚实基 础。 3 月 21 日晚间，中国证券登记结算公司又连续发文出台三项举措，允许信用债 ETF 试点开展交易所质押式回购、拓宽受信用保护债券回购范围、暂免部 分债券登记结算费用 。其中，允许符合一定条件的信用债 ETF 产品试点开展交易所债券通用质押式回购业务，这一举措满足了市场对信用债 ETF 入库开 展回购交易的需要，大大提高了信用债 ETF 产品的流动性、吸引力和交易活跃度，推动 ...

在美伊冲突再起之际，油价周一却意外大幅下跌，显示出市场对局势缓和的预期正在增强。 | 能源化工 区 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原油 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原油 | | 67.23 | 69.67 | 66.05 | | -6.61 -8.95% | -5.81 -7.70% | -5.96 -8.28% | | INE原油 | INE低硫燃料油 | NYMEX天然气 | | 537.7 | 3988 | 3.679 | | -32.2 -5.65% | | -2 -0.05% -0.168 -4.37% | 当地时间6月23日，伊朗对美国驻卡塔尔基地的报复性打击没有投资者担心的那么严重，从而缓解了市场对冲突将立即中断中东供应的担忧，油价因此下 跌。伊朗向美国驻卡塔尔基地发射导弹后，美油暴跌4%，交易商此前担心伊朗的报复性反应将涉及关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油通过该海 峡。虽然最初有人担心伊朗会干扰供应以报复美国，但这种担心已经有所减弱。"这似乎是精心策划的，伊朗袭击了一个空无一人的美国基地，提前发出 了大量警告，并关闭了领空，还提供了躲避指 ...

智通财经6月23日电，摩根大通表示，石油市场定价显示波斯湾运输中断的风险为20%。 ...

市场信心：丰田汽车公司将从下个月起将在美国销售的某些车型的价格提高200多美元。 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 杀鱼者 来源：雪球 资产定价系统分国内和海外 ， 国内以人民币定价 ， 海外以美元定价 ， 所有国家国债是该国金 融债券中信用等级最高的 ， 国债信用是背书该国国家信用的担保。 同一时期 ， 发行的债券 ， 利率差异很大 ， 国债 ， 央企债 ， 地方政府债 ， 民企债......等 ， 利率也是从国债最低→央企债→民企债→拉级债最高的趋势 ， 利率差异的原因是信用溢价 ， 国 债利率最低是包含国家信用溢价 ， 全球都是这样的。 中国经济四十年的高速发展令世人惊叹不已 ！ 全球高科技公司和美国对比只有中国 ， 经济的上 层是政治 ， 西方一面赞叹中国的发展速度 ， 一面又一直否认中国的政治体制 ， 在二级市场 ， 金融精英们用极度的双重标准去定价资本市场 ， 上市民企估值对标美国同类公司 ， 绝大多数国 内上市民企估值高于美国同类公司 ， 对上市的国企 ， 央企用极度悲观估值去定价 ， 认为国企 经营活动是非市场化。 中国经济四十年高速发展是在中国特色体制下实现 ， 包括民营经济 ， 原刚上定价估值体系是一 样的 ， ...

本期导读： 剖析中国S基金市场定价折扣难以对比的问题。 1.全球S基金市场是一个马太效应极强的市场。 这里分为两个方面：中介牵头的交易占据整个市场 60-70%的交易；其次，买方也非常集中。这个也很好计算，例如整年有1400亿美元的交易，最大 的S基金规模为300亿，倘若3年每年投资100亿，也是一笔不小的市占率。前20大买方，基本上贡 献了市场90%的交易金额。信息集中度高，都有利于市场价格的统计。 2.大部分交易的是并购基金资产，GP有更充分的信息资源为S交易做"市值管理"。 除了并购资产 财务算账估值更加直接，GP也有更多的信息浓度，基于企业未来发展状况产出现下估值。除此之 外，S交易市场程度接受度高，GP也更有动力人为调整估值水平，为GP引导的接续交易做准备， 让折扣率在一个买卖双方更容易审批的范围。 作者丨 廖一帆 CFA 赋航资本创始合伙人。7年的S卖方顾问经验，曾就职于加拿大养老基金（CPPIB）和瑞士银行 （UBS）。 本期推荐阅读6分钟 作为深根私募股权二级市场（"S市场"）7年之久的财务顾问中介，我们收到意向交易方最多的问 题，就是中国的S基金对外投资平均打几折。先看海外，可以参考的研报最 ...

Group 1 - Carbon black is a crucial raw material widely used in rubber products, plastics, coatings, inks, and other chemical products, with N339 carbon black being a common type that significantly influences market pricing through its supply and demand dynamics [2] - The primary component of carbon black is carbon, which has a high specific surface area and adsorption properties, enhancing the strength, toughness, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance of rubber products [2] - N339 carbon black is extensively applied in tires, rubber hoses, leather, coatings, and plastics, making its supply and demand critical to the overall carbon black market pricing [2] Group 2 - The supply-demand relationship is a key factor affecting N339 carbon black pricing, with production relying on carbon sources like coal, where rising coal prices can lead to increased raw material costs and negatively impact supply [3] - Demand for N339 carbon black is closely linked to the rubber, plastics, and coatings industries, which are influenced by the economic cycle; demand typically increases during economic growth and decreases during downturns, affecting market supply and pricing [3] - Other factors influencing N339 carbon black pricing include fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly coal, and environmental policies that may require manufacturers to adopt more eco-friendly production methods, potentially increasing production costs [4]