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A股市场暴跌缘由找到了,高盛总结九大因素,前两轮回调皆现历史大底
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 17:03
华尔街巨头高盛在A股市场遭遇了戏剧性一幕。 2025年9月的数据显示,其重仓持有的26只A股龙头股在牛市背景下全部下跌,其中13只跌幅超过20%。 ST 汇科暴跌69%,ST双成下跌57%,这些个股的表现远远跑输大盘。 这一情景与高盛在美股市场的风光形成鲜明对比,其第二季度持仓总市值高达7400亿美 元,重仓的英伟达持仓市值达252亿美元。 这种反差揭示了全球资本市场的联动性与独特性并存。11月21日,美股三大指数集体收跌,纳斯达克指数重挫2.15%,科技股全军覆没。 AMD暴跌超7%, 英伟达即便业绩超预期,仍从盘中大涨5%到收盘下跌3.1%。 这种"利好出尽"的走势严重打击了市场情绪。 高盛对此给出了九大理由解释美股下跌:英伟达利好出尽、私人信贷风险上升、就业数据未能明确降息路径、比特币跌破9万美元引发风险资产抛售、CTA 加速卖出、空头重新入场、亚洲科技股走弱、标普500流动性枯竭、ETF宏观交易主导导致市场对个股基本面敏感度下降。 美股暴跌迅速传导至A股市场。 截至11月21日,A股跌幅创下4月7日以来单日最大纪录,成交量明显放大。 全市场上涨个股仅300家左右,跌幅3%以上近 2500家。 科技板块 ...
中央汇金最新持仓曝光,单季度暴增2000亿元
Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin's recent investment activities indicate a significant increase in ETF holdings, reflecting a strategy to stabilize the capital market and boost investor confidence [3][9][12]. Group 1: Investment Scale and Changes - As of September 30, Central Huijin's ETF holdings reached approximately 1.53 trillion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 240 billion yuan, or 19% [4][6][13]. - The number of ETFs held with a proportion exceeding 20% totaled 28, with a combined market value of 1.48 trillion yuan, up 233.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [8][14]. - The main contributors to the increase in holdings were the recovery of the A-share market, which led to significant appreciation in the net asset values of the ETFs [7][14]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Central Huijin primarily focuses on broad-based index ETFs, such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining market stability [6][14]. - The investment approach of Central Huijin is characterized by long-term holding and diversification, which serves as a stabilizing force in the market [14][16]. - Adjustments made by its asset management plans, such as the liquidation of certain ETFs, suggest a strategy to align with market trends and sector performance [8][14]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - Central Huijin's actions are perceived as a strong signal of the long-term investment value in the A-share market, countering short-term volatility [14][16]. - Analysts expect Central Huijin to continue its steadfast investment in core broad-based ETFs while potentially adjusting its thematic ETF holdings to align with national development strategies [14][16].
“国家队”ETF持仓透视:1.5万亿规模创新高 小幅调仓
Core Insights - Central Huijin's latest investment activities indicate a significant increase in ETF holdings, with total holdings reaching approximately 1.53 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 240 billion yuan, or 19% [1][2][9] ETF Holdings Overview - Central Huijin's four main investment entities held a total ETF market value of approximately 1.53 trillion yuan as of September 30, up from 1.29 trillion yuan at the end of Q2, reflecting a growth of about 240 billion yuan [2][5] - The core entities, Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset, primarily focus on broad-based index ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, acting as a "market stabilizer" [2][10] - The top four holdings are all CSI 300 ETFs from various fund managers, which constitute the majority of the portfolio [2] Performance of Specific ETFs - Central Huijin Investment maintained its holdings in 15 ETFs with over 20% ownership, totaling a market value of approximately 777.8 billion yuan, an increase of 125.5 billion yuan, or 19.23% [2][3] - Central Huijin Asset held 12 ETFs with over 20% ownership, with a total market value of about 697.6 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 107.7 billion yuan, or 18.26% [2][3] Strategic Adjustments - The asset management plan under Huaxia Fund made strategic adjustments, including completely liquidating its holdings in the Huaxia Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend ETF and reducing its position in the CSI 800 Automotive and Parts ETF [3][4] - These adjustments are believed to be in response to market trends and sector performance expectations [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Central Huijin's ETF holdings have consistently reached new highs over the past two years, with a notable increase in 2023, where it began to utilize ETF purchases to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence [6][8] - By the end of 2024, Central Huijin's ETF holdings are projected to reach approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant growth trajectory [7] - Analysts expect Central Huijin to continue its focus on core broad-based ETFs while its asset management plans may adopt a more flexible approach towards sector-specific ETFs [11][12]
“国家队”ETF持仓透视:1.5万亿规模创新高,小幅调仓
Core Insights - Central Huijin's latest investment activities indicate a significant increase in ETF holdings, with a total value reaching approximately 1.53 trillion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 240 billion yuan, or 19% [1][4][14] - The increase in holdings is primarily attributed to the recovery of the stock market, with Central Huijin maintaining a stable position in core broad-based ETFs such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4][16] ETF Holdings Overview - As of September 30, Central Huijin held 28 ETF products with a holding ratio exceeding 20%, totaling a market value of 1.48 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 233.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5][6][7] - The main investment entities, Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset Management, have not significantly altered their holdings in broad-based ETFs, focusing instead on maintaining stability in their investments [5][16] Investment Strategy - Central Huijin's strategy emphasizes long-term, stable investments in broad-based ETFs, reflecting a commitment to market stability and investor confidence [16][17] - The asset management plans under Huaxia Fund and E Fund are more flexible, focusing on industry-themed ETFs that align with national strategic directions and sectors with high economic vitality [16][17] Market Impact - Central Huijin's actions are seen as a stabilizing force in the capital market, with its substantial ETF holdings serving as a "market ballast" [16][19] - Analysts suggest that Central Huijin's investment approach, characterized by long-term positioning and diversification, provides a strong signal of the long-term investment value in the A-share market [16][19]
近4万亿“国家队”持仓曝光,重仓金融,加码科技
Core Insights - The "national team" has heavily invested in over 222 A-share stocks, with a total market value approaching 4 trillion yuan, primarily favoring financial stocks [2][5] - The top three holdings by the "national team" are Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with respective market values of 1.03 trillion yuan, 967.73 billion yuan, and 930.27 billion yuan [4][5] - The total market value of the "national team's" holdings increased to 3.911 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, with financial stocks contributing significantly to this growth [5][6] Financial Sector Focus - The "national team" maintains a strong preference for financial stocks, with 9 out of the top 10 holdings being from this sector, accounting for over 83.9% of the total market value of their top holdings [5][6] - The Agricultural Bank of China saw a 23.52% increase in stock price during Q3, contributing over 180 billion yuan in floating profits for the "national team" [5] Investment in Emerging Sectors - In addition to financial stocks, the "national team" is diversifying into sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy, aligning with national strategic goals [5][6] - Notable technology stocks in the "national team's" portfolio include Ultrasonic Electronics, Puxin Co., and Micron Technology, indicating a shift towards innovation-driven investments [5] ETF Investments - The "national team" has also increased its investment in ETFs, with a total holding of A-share ETFs exceeding 40% of the total ETF market size by the end of Q3 [9] - Central Huijin Investment has emerged as a significant player in the ETF market, holding substantial stakes in multiple ETFs, which has contributed to market stabilization [8][9] Performance of Specific ETFs - Key ETFs held by the "national team" have shown significant floating profits, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF gaining over 55 billion yuan in Q3 [10] - The technology-focused ETFs, such as the Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF, experienced remarkable growth, with a quarterly increase exceeding 80% [10]
近4万亿“国家队”持仓曝光,重仓金融,加码科技
21世纪经济报道· 2025-11-04 14:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant presence of "national team" funds in the A-share market, with a total holding value nearing 4 trillion yuan and a strong preference for financial stocks [1][2][4] - As of the end of Q3, the "national team" held over 222 A-share stocks, with the top three holdings being Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, collectively valued at over 3 trillion yuan [2][4] - The "national team" has also diversified its portfolio by investing in sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and new energy, aligning with national strategic goals [4][8] Group 2 - The total market value of the "national team's" holdings increased to 3.911 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, with financial stocks contributing significantly to this growth [4][8] - The "national team" has been actively using ETFs as a tool for indirect market investment, with a notable increase in ETF holdings amounting to over 1.55 trillion yuan [6][8] - The performance of technology stocks has been strong, with certain ETFs experiencing significant gains, such as the 华夏中证5G通信主题ETF, which saw a quarterly increase of over 80% [8][9]
中国银河证券:A股的天,塌不下来
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-10-12 15:56
Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 has led to significant market volatility, reminiscent of the global market crash in April due to tariff disputes. However, the current market decline is relatively contained and shows resilience against the sudden negative news [1] Market Impact - The financial market has exhibited panic but has not experienced a collapse, indicating a degree of market resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] - A-share market is expected to face short-term shocks, but the long-term market dynamics remain unchanged, suggesting that the market is still in a bullish phase [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment in the A-share market remains high, with the potential for sharp declines during a bull market seen as both a risk and an opportunity [1] - The "stabilization fund" introduced in the second quarter has played a positive role in stabilizing the market, and it is expected to be effective again in the event of sudden market drops [1]
关税引发波动 多家券商解读
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 06:37
Core Viewpoint - The sell-side research institutions generally believe that the market volatility caused by the equal tariffs in April will not "repeat yesterday," thus there is no need to be overly pessimistic about equity assets [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Galaxy Securities report indicates that A-shares may experience slight fluctuations, but the upward trend remains unchanged, accompanied by a shift in market style [1] - The increase in short-term uncertainty will lower the market's risk appetite for Chinese assets, prompting investors to reassess whether market pricing is reasonable due to significant previous profits [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the short-term disturbances from the tariff conflict, the long-term bullish characteristics of A-shares are expected to continue [1] - The probability of a Trump TACO is high, and the resilience of China's supply chain will limit the actual impact on the economic fundamentals [1] - China's counter-cyclical policies still have considerable room for maneuver, with incremental reserve policies set to be introduced in response to changing conditions [1] - Since the second quarter, China's version of a "stabilization fund" has played a positive role in stabilizing the market, and if stock market volatility increases significantly, the stabilization mechanism will again be crucial [1]
“国家队”卖出了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 13:16
Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and holdings of the E Fund's SSE 50 ETF, particularly focusing on the changes in the holdings of Central Huijin Investment and the impact of share consolidation on reported figures [5][8][12]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Distributions - Since its inception, the E Fund SSE 50 ETF has distributed dividends twice, with the latest distributions being CNY 0.0560 per share on November 13, 2023, and CNY 0.0350 per share on November 7, 2024 [1]. - The fund underwent a share consolidation on March 7, 2025, where each share was converted into 0.4972 shares, affecting the reported number of shares held by investors [8][9]. Group 2: Holdings and Changes - Central Huijin held 185 million shares at the end of last year, which, after the consolidation, translates to approximately 91.76 million shares, indicating no actual selling activity [9][10]. - The overall trend shows that Central Huijin has been consistently increasing its holdings in various ETFs, including the SSE 50 ETF, particularly during market downturns [11][12]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Central Huijin's strategy appears to focus on stabilizing the market during periods of volatility, with a history of buying during downturns and potentially selling during overheated market conditions [15][16]. - The article suggests that while Central Huijin has not sold any shares recently, future actions will depend on market conditions and the organization's strategic decisions [12][16].
刘纪鹏:影响A股的因素虽多,但关键在于认知立场与方法论
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-25 10:49
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, with significant influences from both domestic and international factors, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has accumulated approximately 800 points in gains recently, indicating its attractiveness to international capital despite some foreign exits, such as BlackRock [1]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the pace of the market's rebound, with around 130 companies announcing share reduction plans since early September [2]. Group 2: Structural Issues - A fundamental contradiction in the A-share market is the dominance of major shareholders, which has led to wealth distribution inequities, with large shareholders benefiting disproportionately compared to retail investors [2]. - The suggestion is made to implement a "preset circulation bottom price" mechanism to guide major shareholders' behavior rather than imposing restrictions on share reductions [1][2]. Group 3: Government Intervention - The primary driver of the recent market recovery is the entry of state-owned funds, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [2]. - It is recommended that market adjustments should rely on stabilization fund operations rather than allowing major shareholders to reduce their holdings to artificially create a "slow bull" market [2]. Group 4: Reform and Governance - There is a noted hesitation in the execution of policies addressing major shareholder governance issues, which requires further reflection [2]. - The importance of recognizing the need for institutional reforms to correct historical inequities in the market is emphasized, with a call for relevant departments to firmly advance these reforms [2].