日本新领导人高市早苗的政策立场正在重塑投资者对银行板块的预期。 尽管市场对宽松货币政策的预期使银行股承压，但分析师认为，扩张性财政政策带来的项目融资需求以及日元快速贬值或 将推动央行不得不加息，这些因素有望延续银行股的牛市行情。 在本周推动日股创纪录新高的"高市早苗交易"中，银行板块初期表现落后。周一，在日经指数飙升4.75%的同时，东证银 行指数却下跌0.12%，投资者担心高市支持的宽松货币政策可能推迟央行加息计划。 市场最初关注的焦点是高市早苗对财政刺激和宽松货币政策的支持立场。这虽然对股市是强有力的支撑，却也可能推迟日 本银行加息的计划，从而削弱银行未来的利润来源，这也是银行股一度承压的核心原因。 不过，自去年3月日本央行结束超宽松政策以来，银行股已累计上涨47%，远超日经指数同期21%的涨幅。高盛日本金融 分析师Makoto Kuroda分析表示，无论是地方性银行还是大型银行，都将从基于经济安全的广泛扩张政策中受益。 扩张政策推动融资需求 高市早苗表示将优先推动日本地区经济振兴，这可能刺激对地方银行本地专业知识的需求。Kuroda指出，无论是地方银行 还是大型银行都将从基于经济安全的广泛扩张政策中获益 ...

Group 1 - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan has significant implications for both domestic and international politics [2][28] - Following Takaichi's election, the Japanese stock market experienced a surge, with the Nikkei index rising by 2,175.26 points, or 4.75%, reaching a historical high of 47,944.76 points [4][5] - The broader Topix index also saw an increase of 96.89 points, or 3.10%, closing at 3,226.06 points, marking another record [6] Group 2 - The rise in the stock market is attributed to expectations that Takaichi's government will implement expansionary fiscal policies, viewed as a continuation of "Abenomics" [12][13] - Takaichi's proposed policies include tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment aimed at doubling Japan's economic size within ten years, which has encouraged foreign investment in stock index futures [15][21] - Specific companies, such as Fujikura, have seen significant stock price increases, with a rise of over 7% on the day of Takaichi's election and a total increase of over 100% since 2025 [17][18] Group 3 - In contrast to the stock market's performance, the Japanese yen experienced a sharp decline, trading at around 150 to 150.5 yen per dollar, marking a two-month low [8][10] - The depreciation of the yen is linked to anticipated expansionary fiscal policies that may increase inflationary pressures, leading to a sell-off of yen in favor of other currencies [24][26] - Takaichi's conservative political stance and potential military policy changes have raised concerns about Japan's future defense posture and its implications for regional stability [26][28] Group 4 - The leadership changes within the LDP following Takaichi's election, including the appointments of key figures like Taro Aso and Shunichi Suzuki, will influence the government's policy direction [28] - The overall economic and political landscape in Japan is expected to undergo significant changes due to Takaichi's leadership, with potential impacts on economic growth and international relations [28][30]

日本股市大幅走强。 10月6日，日经225指数日内涨超4%，最高涨近2000点；最新报47699.96点，创历史新高。 图片 日本东证指数升至历史新高。 图片 个股方面，住友制药、雅马哈发动机、日产汽车、松下等涨幅居前。 图片 图片 汇率方面，美元兑日元（USD/JPY）上涨1.56%，至149.74日元；欧元兑日元汇率上涨超1%，至175.08日元，触及2024年7月以来的最高点；澳元兑日元上 涨1.19%，至98.41日元，触及2025年1月以来的最高水平。 | 美元兑日元 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I USDJPY | | | | | | | | | 149.7400 +2.3000 +1.5600% | | | | | | | | | 10-06 08:23:06 | | | | | | | 反向 | | ミナ | 149.1900 | 最高 | 149.7700 | 振幅 | | | 0.4951% | | 昨收 | 147.4400 | 最低 | 149.0400 | 波幅 | | | 0 ...

新华社北京10月5日电 经济热点问答｜高市早苗将给日本经济带来什么影响 新华社记者宿亮 4日，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在执政党自民党的总裁选举中胜出，有望成为日本首位女 性首相。 当前，日本经济面临财政和货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等多重困 境。在上述背景下，高市早苗执政会给日本这一世界第四大经济体带来什么样的影响？ 高市的财政扩张主张是否有风险？ 对于经济和财政领域的不少热门议题，高市早苗的立场与刚刚辞去首相职务的石破茂鲜明对立，两者主 要分歧在于对前首相安倍晋三的"安倍经济学"的看法。 石破茂认为，"安倍经济学"尝试摆脱日本长达数十年的通缩，但过度偏重金融宽松，导致资产价格上 涨、财富分配不均、贫富差距拉大。因此，石破茂执政期间经济政策求稳，重心从"增长"转移到"分 配"，同时也主张扩大税基、提高消费税。 高市在政治上与安倍晋三渊源颇深，也被视为"安倍经济学"的继承人，主张扩张性财政政策。她认为， 经济增长对日本最为重要，要制定规划让日本经济规模在10年内翻倍，这意味着减税、经济刺激和政府 投资。 高市4日表示，日本政府和央行必须密切合作，确保经济实现由工资和企业利 ...

有分析认为，若高市早苗胜出，可能致使日本的经济政策一定程度上回归"安倍时代"的路线。 日本将迎来首位女首相。 据央视新闻，当地时间4日下午，日本执政党自民党举行总裁选举投计票。在第二轮投票中，前经济安全 保障担当大臣高市早苗获得多数选票，当选自民党新任总裁，大概率将成为新一任日本首相。 共5名候选人参加此次自民党总裁选举，在第一轮投票环节，高市早苗和小泉进次郎分别排在第1位和第2 位，但票数都没能超过50%。按规定随即进入第2轮的终选，由高市早苗和小泉进次郎对决。 原本现首相石破茂的任期将于2027年结束。执政联盟接连在去年与今年的参众议院选举中罕见地沦为"少 数派"，石破茂于9月7日公开宣布辞任。 投资者普遍认为，高市早苗的胜选将引发市场剧烈波动，其政策倾向可能推动政府支出增加，带动日本股 市上涨。 在经济方面，高市一贯主张维持货币宽松与扩张性财政政策，被视为"安倍经济学"的继承者。去年竞选 时，她公开反对日本央行加息，今年又提出将食品消费税从8%彻底降至零的构想。 日媒此前分析认为，若高市早苗胜出，可能致使日本的经济政策一定程度上回归"安倍时代"的路线，日元 恐因此继续贬值。此前，高盛全球外汇、利率与新兴 ...

（原标题：亚开行预测今明两年韩经济增长率为0.8%和1.6%） 据韩联社9月30日报道，亚洲开发银行日前发布《9月亚洲经济展望》，预测今明两年韩国经济增长 率分别为0.8%和1.6%，该预测值与此前（今年7月，下同）相同。亚开行认为政府的扩张性财政政策和 缓和的货币政策将有助于下半年内需恢复，但建筑行业持续低迷、美加征关税等因素仍拖累经济表现， 因此维持此前的预测。亚开行预测亚太地区经济增长率为4.8%，较此前高出0.1个百分点；明年增长率 为4.5%，较此前下调0.1个百分点。亚开行认为美国加征关税和外部通商环境的不确定性将成为制约经 济发展的因素，但预计各国采取的财政和货币政策可部分抵消上述影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued weakness in Germany's private sector growth as indicated by the July PMI data, particularly in manufacturing [1] - Manufacturing PMI remains below the neutral line, suggesting ongoing fragility in the sector, although manufacturing output has expanded for five consecutive months, indicating signs of recovery [1] - The services sector is no longer a drag on economic growth, with new business volumes in July experiencing their first increase in nearly a year after ten months of decline [1] Group 2 - The improvement in economic outlook aligns with expectations, driven by real wage growth and expansionary fiscal policies that are likely to support overall economic stabilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The political situation in Japan is likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the yen, as indicated by the analysis from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation economist Ryota Abe [1] Group 1: Political Landscape - The ruling party's dominant position has been significantly weakened following the results of the recent Senate elections [1] - The opposition party's advocacy for expansionary fiscal policies is still gaining traction [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A potential risk scenario involves candidates within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who are seen as supporting expansionary fiscal policies, which could further contribute to the depreciation of the yen [1]

Group 1: Economic Policy - The government plans to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, proposing an additional $14.7 billion in government spending to stimulate domestic demand [3] - President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the need for a multi-faceted approach to stabilize livelihoods and restore the disrupted social order as a top priority [4] - The government aims to promote balanced development and enhance the quality of life through a more robust social security system [4] Group 2: International Relations - President Lee highlighted the importance of strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance and deepening cooperation with Japan, despite historical issues [4] - He expressed a commitment to pragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests, while also seeking to improve relations with China and Russia [4] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. are acknowledged as challenging, with no clear resolution timeline yet established [3] Group 3: Domestic Governance - The recent press conference marked a shift towards more open communication with the public, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5] - The appointment of Kim Min-sik as the first Prime Minister under Lee's administration was confirmed, emphasizing a focus on overcoming economic crises [6] - The government is committed to judicial reform, with President Lee reiterating his determination to reform the prosecution system [4]

Group 1: Political Landscape - President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating stands at 59.7% as of June 30, indicating a positive reception of his administration [1][4] - Lee Jae-myung has been actively working to stabilize South Korea after a tumultuous three years, focusing on economic recovery and addressing key issues such as U.S. tariffs and diplomatic relations with China [2][6] - The new government is prioritizing a balanced foreign policy, moving away from previous extremes, which could benefit South Korea's relations with China [7] Group 2: Economic Policies - Lee Jae-myung's administration is facing significant economic challenges, with the Bank of Korea projecting a GDP growth rate of only 2% for 2024, down from previous expectations [11] - A supplementary budget of 30.5 trillion KRW (approximately 1.611 billion RMB) has been proposed to stimulate the economy, focusing on consumer vouchers, investment, and support for vulnerable groups [12] - The government aims to invest heavily in advanced industries such as AI and semiconductors, as well as support for cultural industries, as part of its economic strategy [12][13] Group 3: Market Reactions - The South Korean stock market has seen significant gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 3100 points for the first time in four years, attributed to the expansionary fiscal policies of the new administration [13] - Ongoing negotiations regarding U.S. tariffs present a challenge for the Lee administration, with uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and the need for more time to align interests [14]