炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 散户净流入：当前以小单衡量的散户净流入MA20为275亿元，去年2月和9月的峰值接近400亿元。 换手率：当前全A换手率（MA5）达到2.4%，去年8月底最高达2.58%，2024年10月最高达3.15%。 融资情绪：当前以"近20日融资买入额/近60日融资买入额"衡量的融资情绪指标为36%，历史上过热水平 在40%以上。 融资买入占比：当前融资买入占比11.26%，去年10月最高达到12.09%，2015年最高达到18%。 全A30日均线上数量占比：当前全A30日均线上数量占比为66.8%，历史上过热水平在80%左右。 全A创60日新高数量占比：当前全A创60日新高数量占比为11.27%，历史上过热水平在20%左右。 股债风险溢价：当前全A股债风险溢价位于滚动五年均值-0.5倍标准差附近。 RSI：当前全A RSI_14D为80.4，去年7月底最高达到82.3，24年10月最高达到91.3。 风险提示 仅公开资料整理，不涉及研究观点及投资建议 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错 ...

近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜5次，上榜次日股价平均涨1.08%，上榜后5日平均跌13.82%。（数据宝） 常辅股份1月8日交易公开信息 | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖出金额（万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖 | | 元） | 元） | | 买一 | 中信建投证券股份有限公司长乐吴航路证券营业部 | 1608.10 | 0.00 | | 买二 | 机构专用 | 1351.68 | 155.09 | | 买三 | 国金证券股份有限公司深圳分公司 | 1213.36 | 425.89 | | 买四 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司邢台冶金北路证券营业部 | 806.40 | 0.38 | | 买五 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第二证券营业部 | 733.00 | 653.87 | | 卖一 | 华泰证券股份有限公司连云港通灌南路证券营业部 | 348.18 | 796.64 | | 卖二 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 415.99 | 661.82 | | 卖三 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第二证券营业部 | 733. ...

柏诚股份(601133)今日上涨2.12%，全天换手率32.44%，成交额8.44亿元，振幅6.99%。龙虎榜数据显 示，营业部席位合计净卖出3981.83万元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达32.44%上榜，营业部席位合计净卖出3981.83万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交1.23亿元，其中，买入成交额为4154.84 万元，卖出成交额为8136.67万元，合计净卖出3981.83万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，买入金额为 1232.89万元，第一大卖出营业部为高盛(中国)证券有限责任公司上海浦东新区世纪大道证券营业部，卖 出金额为2929.27万元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新(12月24日)两融余额为2.37亿元，其中，融资余额为2.37亿元，融券余额 为38.63万元。近5日融资余额合计增加2503.91万元，增幅为11.81%。融券余额合计增加38.48万元，增 幅25298.29%。 10月29日公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入32.76亿元，同比下降14.63%，实 现净利润1.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared to last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. For industrial bonds, most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For bank capital bonds, the short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly [3][4][30]. - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [5][7][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On December 19th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice allowing eligible overseas institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase business on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, providing them with standardized liquidity management tools [11]. - On December 15th, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into Postal Savings Bank of China for suspected violations in the underwriting and issuance of debt financing instruments [12]. - On December 15th, Guizhou Rural Commercial United Bank Co., Ltd. was approved to open. It acquired the shares of 16 rural commercial banks and 5 rural credit cooperatives, with an increased registered capital of 10.458 billion yuan and new shareholders including the Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance and China Kweichow Moutai Group Co., Ltd. [13]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 365.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.1 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 249.3 billion yuan, an increase of 29 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27 billion yuan compared to last week [14]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 21.3 billion yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 70.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.7 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 24 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan [15]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds were adjusted to over 2.8%, while the average issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types were below 2.8%. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased by 45BP and 27BP respectively compared to last week, and the issuance rate of AA + financial bonds increased by 58BP [17]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 44.3 billion yuan compared to last week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 259.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 367.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 627.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan [24]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds showed a mixed trend compared to last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.66%, a decrease of 0.1 pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.89%, an increase of 0.06 pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 4.05%, a decrease of 0.29 pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.67%, an increase of 0.03 pct [24]. 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the yields of AA and AAA + credit bonds with a 5 - year maturity increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively, while the yield of AAA - credit bonds decreased by 1BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds with a maturity over 10 years decreased by 1BP, 1BP, and less than 1BP respectively [25]. 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly by 14BP compared to last week, while the spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of the AA + leisure service industry widened by 20BP, and the spreads of the AA + media and light manufacturing industries widened by 9BP [30]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. By region, the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Shandong, and Sichuan; for AA + urban investment bonds, they were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Yunnan; for AAA urban investment bonds, they were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Jilin, and Tianjin [32][34]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP, and 7BP respectively compared to last week; the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [36]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [39]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - This week, the implied ratings of bonds issued by five issuers, including Nanjing Zijin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Beijing Tianheng Yuanxin Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd., were downgraded. The "H20 Tianying 3" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. and the "Hongda Debenture" issued by Hongda Xingye Co., Ltd. defaulted in essence [4][40]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position to obtain stable coupon income, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected to increase portfolio returns. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration to obtain stable coupon income, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [44].

Key Insights - The report indicates that the central economic work conference and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting have concluded smoothly, with overall policy coherence and limited marginal changes, suggesting that the market will continue to experience high-level fluctuations [1] - The report emphasizes that industry rotation remains the main theme, but the difficulty of grasping this trend is increasing, recommending careful positioning for the next phase of the market, particularly focusing on the AI industry chain as a core direction [1][4] - Additionally, sectors experiencing supply-demand recovery and upward economic trends, such as storage and energy chains, are also highlighted as areas of importance [1] Market Data Analysis - The economic data released for November shows a continuation of the previous trend of marginal slowdown, with exports maintaining a high level of prosperity, while financial data indicates weak domestic demand [3][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a strong trend primarily driven by fresh vegetable prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has not shown a significant narrowing of decline, indicating a stable low price level [14][16] - The report notes that the social financing increased by 24,885 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan, while the increase in RMB loans was 3,181 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 917 billion yuan, mainly due to the weak performance in the household sector [11][14] Industry Configuration - The report suggests continuing to focus on the AI industry chain for investment opportunities, indicating that the current growth style and communication sector are at relatively low turnover rates, implying a significant potential for short-term price increases [24][35] - The analysis of turnover rates indicates that during the first phase of the growth industry cycle, turnover rates can serve as an effective auxiliary indicator for observing the growth style and strong main lines, with high turnover rates often preceding market corrections [24][35] - The report outlines a three-phase framework for the growth industry cycle, emphasizing that the current market is still in the early stages of this cycle, with significant room for growth remaining [25][35] Specific Sector Insights - The AI industry is identified as a core main line with a clear upward trend, and the report suggests that adjustments in this sector provide good opportunities for future positioning [37] - The report also highlights the importance of sectors experiencing supply-demand improvements, particularly in storage and energy chains, which are expected to benefit from AI-driven demand and other market dynamics [37][39]

A股唯一不骗人指标：换手率大于15%，代表主力已进场 国庆后和炒股的老伙计们聚餐，三句话离不开"踩坑"：有人盯着K线图的"金叉"进场，结果套在半山 腰；有人听了"内部消息"追高，转头就吃跌停；还有人被各种花里胡哨的技术指标绕晕，买啥亏啥。咱 们散户炒股，最愁的就是看不清主力动向——主力偷偷进场时咱不敢买，等咱冲进去，人家早就跑路 了！但2025年的A股市场，有个指标越来越"实诚"，几乎没骗过散户，那就是换手率，尤其是当它突破 15%时，基本等于主力在"亮底牌"。 先搞懂：15%换手率，为啥是A股的"关键红线"？ 首先得说清楚，换手率到底是啥？其实特简单：就是当天买卖的股票数量，占这只股总流通股的比例， 直白讲就是"股票的热闹程度"。2025年11月上交所发布的《上证统计月报》显示，A股主板日均换手率 才1.03%-1.37%，科创板稍微活跃点，也才1.85%-2.30% 。也就是说，大部分股票每天也就1%-2%的筹 码在换手，冷冷清清的。 那15%的换手率意味着啥？相当于当天近五分之一的流通筹码全换了主人，交易热到发烫！证券业协会 2025年发布的市场交易报告里明确说，A股常态换手率在3%-8%之间，低于3% ...

Group 1: Market Indicators - The concept of intraday charts is introduced, showing real-time price movements with two curves: the white line representing the current price and the yellow line representing the average price for the day, indicating strong or weak market trends based on their movements [1] - Volume is defined as the number of trades within a specific time period, reflecting the inflow and outflow of funds in the market, and is a crucial indicator for assessing market trends [2] - The委比 (Order Ratio) measures the relative strength of buy and sell orders, with positive values indicating strong buying pressure and negative values indicating strong selling pressure [3] - 内盘 (Internal Volume) and 外盘 (External Volume) are used to assess the strength of buying and selling forces, with internal volume reflecting buy orders and external volume reflecting sell orders [4] Group 2: Trading Metrics - The volume ratio is calculated as the current total volume divided by the average volume over the past five days, indicating market activity; a ratio greater than 1 suggests higher trading activity compared to the previous five days [5] - The turnover rate is defined as the volume over a specific period divided by the total number of shares issued, serving as an indicator of stock liquidity; a higher turnover rate indicates better liquidity [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price by earnings per share, serving as a measure of stock price levels; a higher P/E ratio indicates higher risk, while a lower P/E ratio suggests lower risk and potentially higher investment value [7]

Core Insights - The initiative "UP向上，投资有温度" by 中信保诚基金 aims to provide comprehensive wealth management support for investors throughout their life cycle through systematic financial knowledge dissemination and professional investment decision-making [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - Investors are currently facing uncertainty in the market, leading to common questions about whether to sell funds after recovering losses or how to select funds amidst market fluctuations [3] - A prevalent issue among investors is the cycle of buying when prices rise and selling when they fall, often driven by emotional responses rather than the underlying investment products [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Tools - To build a more resilient investment portfolio, the event introduced practical tools and concepts to shift from "feeling-based investing" to "data-driven decision-making" [6] - The "correlation coefficient" is highlighted as a key indicator for measuring asset interdependence, emphasizing the importance of diversification to avoid concentrated risk [7] - The "KDJ indicator" is presented as a tool for gauging market sentiment, particularly noting that a negative J value may indicate a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [10] Group 3: Core Asset Selection - The 中证A500 index is recommended as an ideal core asset for ordinary investors due to its risk diversification, transparency, and low cost, representing a broader view of the Chinese economy [8] - Since its inception, the 中证A500 index has shown a growth of 454.81% with an annualized volatility of 8.83%, covering 35 secondary and 91 tertiary industries, thus providing a comprehensive representation of China's economic transformation [9] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The event concluded with the notion that investment success relies more on discipline and philosophy rather than luck, advocating for a diversified asset allocation that aligns with individual risk tolerance [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the updated active fund manager pool information for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting various metrics such as investment style, stock allocation, industry preferences, turnover rates, and fund sizes. Group 1: Fund Manager Information - The article includes a detailed summary of fund managers categorized by their investment styles, such as value and growth, along with their respective fund names and codes [4][5][6]. - Key metrics for each fund manager include their experience, stock allocation percentages, and the concentration of holdings [11][12][21][22]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics - The article discusses the importance of analyzing fund characteristics such as investment style, industry preference, and stock concentration when evaluating fund performance [34][36][48][53]. - It emphasizes that different investment styles exhibit varying performance over time, with value and growth styles alternating in strength [36][48]. Group 3: Fund Performance Metrics - The article outlines critical performance metrics such as stock allocation, turnover rates, and fund sizes, which are essential for assessing fund managers' effectiveness [43][59][61]. - It notes that a higher stock allocation typically leads to greater volatility in fund performance [45]. Group 4: Fund Manager Insights - The article highlights the significance of fund managers' insights in their reports, which include reflections on past performance and future market outlooks [62][63]. - It points out that the depth and detail of these insights can vary significantly among fund managers, impacting investor understanding [63].

Market Overview - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index fell by 1.42%, closing at 1387.53 points, with a total trading volume of 4.281 billion shares and a turnover of 193.197 billion yuan, resulting in an average turnover rate of 2.24% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 230 stocks closed higher, with 11 stocks rising over 10%, including ShenGong Co., Mag Valley Technology, and Shangwei New Materials, which hit the daily limit [1] Trading Activity - The highest turnover rates were observed in He Yuan Biological, which closed down 8.02% with a turnover rate of 26.26%, and Xi'an Yicai, which closed down 1.48% with a turnover rate of 25.49% [1] - A total of 41 stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5% saw price increases, while the largest declines were in Pu Ran Co., He Yuan Biological, and Tengjing Technology, which fell by 9.33%, 8.02%, and 7.99% respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - The electronics sector had the highest number of stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, totaling 23 stocks, followed by the power equipment and computer sectors with 18 and 10 stocks respectively [2] - In terms of capital flow, 41 stocks with high turnover rates experienced net inflows from main funds, with the highest net inflows recorded for Baiwei Storage, Atas, and Huicheng Co., amounting to 281 million yuan, 196 million yuan, and 128 million yuan respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 50 stocks with high turnover rates received net purchases from leveraged funds, with significant increases in financing balances for Atas, Jinpan Technology, and Tengjing Technology, which rose by 614 million yuan, 228 million yuan, and 215 million yuan respectively [2] Notable Stocks - Key stocks with high turnover rates included He Yuan Biological, Xi'an Yicai, and Mag Valley Technology, with respective turnover rates of 26.26%, 25.49%, and 25.07% [3][4] - Stocks such as ShenGong Co. and Mag Valley Technology achieved daily limit increases of 20% [3]