Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that new RMB loans and social financing in October have decreased year-on-year, reflecting a weak real estate cycle and the impact of local and corporate debt replacement loans [1] - The new policy financial tools have not yet fully demonstrated their effect on social financing, although M1 and M2 growth rates have slightly declined, they still maintain a relatively fast growth [1] - Looking ahead, the completion of the new policy financial tools' deployment in October is expected to further boost social financing [1] Group 1 - New RMB loans and social financing in October have decreased year-on-year, influenced by a weak real estate cycle and local debt replacement [1] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have slightly declined but remain robust overall [1] - The new policy financial tools, with a total of 500 billion yuan deployed in October, are anticipated to stimulate corporate loan demand and support social financing growth [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in national housing prices and weak real estate demand have negatively impacted residential loan growth [1] - The replacement of local debts, combined with low interest rates and the issuance of technology innovation bonds, has somewhat suppressed corporate loan financing demand [1] - The significant front-loading of government bonds this year has led to a noticeable year-on-year decrease in net government bond issuance in October [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 45th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance, and planned issuance of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, new local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as the net financing scale of local bonds and treasury bonds [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 91.1%. This week, 45.2 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 109.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 139.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 45.2 billion yuan [4][5]. New General Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 0 yuan of new general bonds were issued, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 1.25 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 0 yuan [5][6]. New Local Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4% [9]. Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 225.8 billion yuan, an increase of 225.8 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 22 billion yuan. As of November 9, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 87.4% [12]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 209.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 242.8 billion yuan [18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 42nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance, net financing scale, and progress of various types of bonds as of October 19, 2025, along with next - week's plans [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 2.01 billion yuan, a 2.01 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 84.0%. Next week, 11.24 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4]. - As of 10/19, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 2.01 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 yuan, with no change from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%. Next week, 0.13 billion yuan is planned to be issued [6]. - As of 10/19, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was - 1.98 billion yuan, a 0.48 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 84.0%. Next week, the planned net financing is 16.58 billion yuan [7]. 3.4 Government Bonds (Treasury Bonds + Local Bonds) - As of 10/19, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 83.8%. This week, the government bond net financing was - 0.32 billion yuan, a 16.29 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 13.33 billion yuan [11]. 3.5 Treasury Bonds - As of 10/19, the treasury bond net financing progress was 83.6%. This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 1.66 billion yuan, a 16.77 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 3.25 billion yuan [17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net financing scale of different types of bonds and their progress [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1. General Bond Issuance - This week, the new issuance of general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0% [10]. - In October, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion [4]. 3.2. Special Bond Issuance - This week, the new issuance of special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6% [4]. - In October, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion [5]. 3.3. Local Bond Issuance - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.4% [19]. 3.5. Government Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 83.5% [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 40, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher and Report Date - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consultation Number: Z0018635 - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] 3. Key Data New Special Bond - This week's new special bond issuance was 16 billion yuan, a decrease of 133.6 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%. In September, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 413.1 billion yuan [4]. New General Bond - This week's new general bond issuance was 9.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0% [5][7]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week's local bond net financing scale was 63.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's net financing is expected to be about -24.6 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [10]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 0 billion yuan, an increase of 144.1 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's net financing is expected to be about 184.4 billion yuan. As of October 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [15]. 4. Data Sources - Wind, iFinD, CITIC Futures Research Institute, updated to October 5, 2025 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in September 2025 tightened slightly compared to August, but the tightening amplitude was limited compared to the historical average. The central bank's net capital injection was relatively high, and the capital stratification pressure remained low. In October, the capital market may maintain a marginal tightening trend, with the capital center likely to remain stable or rise slightly [2][6] 9 - Month Review: Marginal Tightening Compared to August - **Capital Rate Central Uplift**: In September, the central points of various - term capital rates increased slightly. The operating central points of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rose by 4bp, 1bp, and 3bp respectively. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate widened slightly to 9bp [2][12] - **Limited Tightening Compared to History**: Historically, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate in September usually widens compared to August. However, in 2025, the tightening amplitude of the capital rate was lower than the historical average since 2016 [2][17] - **High Central Bank Net Investment**: As of the 28th, the central bank's net capital injection in September reached 97.6 billion yuan, second only to September 2023. The capital market showed a different trend from previous years, with an upward trend around the tax period and a slight decline at the end of the month [2][20] - **Increase in Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Yields**: The central points of inter - bank certificate of deposit yields for various terms increased significantly compared to August. The issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of various banks also showed an upward trend, indicating some pressure on the liability side of banks before the quarter - end [3][23] - **Low Capital Stratification Pressure**: The R - DR spread remained at a low level. The spread between R001 and DR001 narrowed slightly, while the spread between R007 and DR007 widened slightly, but overall, the stratification pressure was at a historical low [3] 10 - Month Outlook: May Maintain a Marginal Tightening Trend - **Historical Experience of Horizontal Movement of Shibor 3M**: Since May 2025, Shibor 3M has been horizontally moving for nearly 90 days and started to rise at the end of September. Historically, after horizontal movement, capital rates mostly declined, but the two instances of decline within 30 days after horizontal movement both occurred in October [4] - **Seasonal Pattern in October**: Seasonally, the capital market in October usually tightens. The spread between Shibor 3M and the OMO 7 - day rate in October usually widens compared to September, with an average increase of 10bp since 2018. The capital rate often shows a flat trend in the first half of the month and an upward trend in the second half [5] - **Credit and Capital Relationship**: If credit rebounds in the fourth quarter, the capital rate may rise. The growth rate of social financing stock peaked and declined in August. As debt replacement ends in the fourth quarter, corporate credit may bottom out and rebound. Historically, the trend of Shibor 3M is generally consistent with the growth rates of social financing stock and corporate medium - and long - term loans [5] - **Analysis of Liquidity Gap**: In October, the net financing pressure of government bonds will decrease significantly. However, as it is a large tax - paying month at the beginning of the quarter, the liquidity gap may be about 90 billion yuan. Considering the maturity of various monetary tools, the liquidity gap will increase to 3.1 trillion yuan. Assuming equal - amount renewal, the estimated excess reserve ratio in September is about 1.06% [52][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 39th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, net financing scale, and their changes compared to the previous week and historical data for various types of bonds [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bonds issued were 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 82.7% [9] - This week, new general bonds issued were 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.1% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [18] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 81.7% [20]

Group 1 - Report Overview - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 39, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bond issuance was 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.7% [9] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1% [12] Group 5 - Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the treasury bond net financing progress is 80.6% [18] Group 6 - Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance is 81.7% [20]