TOP100 房企 2025 年 12 月销售数据点评 [Table_Industry] 房地产 ——关注财政发力节奏及蓝筹竞争格局显现时点 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 曾佳敏(分析师) | 021-23185689 | zengjiamin@gtht.com | S0880525040125 | 本报告导读： 2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，我们认为行业高质量发展背景指导下，当前 8 万亿 平新房市场销售下具备一定承接能力，关注财政发力节奏及蓝筹竞争格局显现时点。 投资要点： 从 2025 年 12 月单月情况来看，TOP100 房企实现操盘口径销售金 额 3246.5 亿元，环比 39.3%，同比-26.1%。2025 年 12 月 TOP100 ...

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 (12.29-1.4) 02 周度行情回顾 债市震荡偏弱 债市震荡偏弱。债市仍偏震荡行情，在对2026年财政发力超长债供给担忧以及12月PMI 强于预期的影响下，长债表现相对较弱，长债收益率震荡上升。 A股震荡分化 A股震荡分化，沪指微涨。年末市 ... 1、12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费 品以旧换新政策的通知。已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支 持消费品以旧换新资金计划。继续支持汽车、家电、数码产品的补贴，并且增加了智 能眼镜和智能家居产品的购新补贴。 2、12月30日，财政部和税务总局联合发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公 告》，称个人出售持有2年以上住房将免征增值税，持有不足2年的按3%征收率全额 缴纳。 3、12月31日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国12月官方制造业PMI50.1，为4月份以 来首次升至扩张区间，产需两端明显回升，大型企业PMI重返扩张区间，服务业景气 度小幅回升至49.7。 4、1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

权益守成待机，债券缘何下跌？ 2025 2025年年1212月月11日日-2025 -2025年年1212月月55日日 基金投顾观点 本周A股市场略有回升，债市走弱，黄金高位震荡，美股小幅上涨。具体来看，市场有以下几个重要方面： 本周A股市场略有回升，但沪深两市日均成交金额延续回落，上证指数仍未修复11月21日的跳空 缺口，A股市场处于10月高点与11月低点间进行震荡整理。申万一级行业上，有色金属、通信、 国防军工行业涨幅居前，传媒、房地产、美容护理跌幅居前。本周国证价值上涨1.19%，国证成 长上涨1.62%，成长风格占优。恒生指数上涨0.87%，万得全A上涨0.72%，港股表现略强于A 股。 债市方面，本周适逢月初资金面整体均衡偏松，债市下跌为主，利率债表现弱于信用债，超长 债大幅走弱，国债期货同步走弱，预计纯债基金收负。基本面上，从目前披露的经济数据来 看，基本面修复动能仍然偏弱。资金面上，本周适逢月初，资金面整体均衡偏松。情绪面上， 市场对于十五五规划及财政发力有一定预期，进而延伸到对于长债供给的担忧，叠加公募新规 仍尚未定论，市场情绪较为脆弱。 商品方面，COMEX黄金本周高位震荡，外盘和沪金呈现" ...

策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index attempted to break 100 for the second time, with the first attempt occurring at the end of July 2025, followed by a significant drop due to disappointing non-farm payroll data on August 1[3] - The current macroeconomic environment differs significantly from July, with a lack of economic data and a hawkish stance from Powell leading to a "self-driving" market[4] - In July, the British pound experienced the largest decline among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness in the UK, while this time the Japanese yen is leading the decline following Japan's monetary easing policies[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current attempt to break 100 is expected to be more successful than in July, with potential for higher rebound points and longer duration[5] - However, the dollar is not entering a long-term appreciation cycle; it is merely experiencing a rebound[5] - Short-term market expectations are pricing in a greater than 30% probability of no interest rate cuts in December, indicating significant room for policy expectation adjustments[5] - The upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair by the White House is anticipated to negatively impact the dollar[5] - Long-term, the Fed is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and ongoing U.S. debt issues alongside European fiscal measures remain critical concerns[5] - The dollar's rebound may assist in stabilizing gold and silver prices and help equity markets adjust to high valuations[5] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the US and Chinese bond markets is mainly due to the "hawkish" outlook of US monetary policy and the expectation of fiscal stimulus in China. The US bond yield rebounded, and the focus of the domestic bond market may shift to the expectation of fiscal stimulus. The production price index decreased, and the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased compared to the same period last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data on food, other consumer goods, commodities, energy, metals, real estate, shipping, etc. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.16% week - on - week and 26.81% year - on - year; the 30 - city commercial housing trading area increased by 2.79% week - on - week [16]. High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, export volume, etc., like the relationship between copper spot price year - on - year and industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [90][101]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including the average daily output of crude steel, production price index, and the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, etc. [103][112]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown [162][165].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate market is expected to benefit from policy stimulus and the traditional sales peak in the short term, but faces challenges in Q4 due to high base effects. Attention is needed on whether sales data can remain stable, while investment data shows a trend of stabilization despite a decrease, and new home prices still face downward pressure [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Real Estate Sector - The investment success rate in the real estate sector is improving, with a better competitive landscape among leading companies. Gross margins are expected to improve significantly by Q2 next year. Recommended companies include Shenzhen Investment, China Resources, and China Overseas, as well as diversified targets like Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Quzhou Development [1][7]. - As of August 2025, real estate sales data showed a year-on-year decline of approximately 7%, an improvement from a 14% decline the previous year. This decline is attributed to a significant reduction in land purchases and falling prices of existing assets [3]. - The second-hand housing market is currently more reflective of consumption rather than investment attributes, with price fluctuations primarily influenced by depreciation logic until new housing stabilizes [6]. Construction Industry - The construction industry has been under pressure recently, with cautious performance noted over the past two months. However, there is optimism for Q4 due to expected policy support for stable growth [8][9]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are suggested to be focused on high-dividend assets, metal asset revaluation, and companies benefiting from debt resolution policies, such as China Railway Construction [11][12]. Building Materials Sector - August data for the building materials sector was weak, with cement sales down approximately 8% year-on-year. However, expectations for fiscal stimulus are increasing, and companies focused on domestic demand have shown improved fundamentals [10][12]. - The waterproofing sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with companies like Dongfang Yuhong recommended due to their strong fundamentals and potential benefits from policy planning [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - The global context of interest rate cuts is creating more certainty in external markets, particularly in overseas cement, fiberglass, and photovoltaic glass sectors. Companies like Huaxin Cement, China Jushi, and Xinyi Solar are noted as potential investment opportunities [13]. - The 2025 anti-involution policy is expected to have a profound impact on the supply side, with a focus on sectors like cement and photovoltaic glass, and companies with independent growth logic such as Henkel Group and Puyang Huicheng [14][15]. - Strategies for addressing poor performance in August include focusing on domestic demand, overseas demand, and anti-dumping measures, with specific recommendations for companies like China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, and Xinyi Solar [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which increased by 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2%, indicates a potential rise in inflation, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and creating uncertainty in global capital markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the PPI announcement, there was initial fear in the A-share market about the end of the current bull market, as evidenced by a significant drop in stock prices [1]. - Contrary to expectations, the A-share market rebounded strongly the next day, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising to nearly 3700 points, indicating resilience against negative news [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into two factions regarding interest rate policies, with one side advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the other pushes for aggressive rate cuts [5]. - The outcome of this internal conflict will significantly influence whether the Fed will cut rates in September, with economic data losing its decisive impact on this decision [5][6]. Group 3: A-Share Market Characteristics - The A-share market has evolved into a liquidity-driven market, becoming less sensitive to external news and starting to exhibit independent trends [6]. - The push for increased direct financing by the government has historically led to bull markets within two years, suggesting a potential for sustained growth in the A-share market [8][9]. Group 4: Fiscal Stimulus and Market Growth - The recent fiscal stimulus, particularly from central government funds, has been a key driver of the A-share market's upward momentum, with significant investments from state-owned entities [9]. - The influx of capital from various sources, including consumer loans and relaxed regulatory measures, has further bolstered market liquidity, contributing to the current bullish sentiment [9][10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - For a sustained bull market, the return of resident deposits and corporate foreign exchange funds is crucial, with the potential for significant capital inflow if the stock market continues to perform well [11][12]. - The anticipated return of overseas corporate funds, estimated to be around 2 trillion, could provide substantial support for the A-share market, especially as the U.S. enters a period of potential interest rate cuts [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a preference for absolute and relative returns in the long term [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of M1 has rebounded significantly, driven by three main factors: low base effect, increased fiscal efforts, and strict payment terms [3][12]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to reduce payment delays from large enterprises to SMEs, thereby enhancing liquidity through short-term loans and bond issuance [2][3]. - Despite the positive trends, the report notes that the current M1 growth rate still lags behind the growth rates of social financing, M2, and nominal GDP, indicating a need for further improvement in economic vitality [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - The report discusses the financial data released by the central bank for June 2025, noting that the growth rates of social financing, credit, M2, and M1 align with previous forecasts, with M1 growth exceeding expectations [1][3]. - M1's growth rate for June 2025 is reported at 4.6%, a significant increase from 2.3% in May 2025 [12]. Policy Impact - The new regulations effective from June 1, 2025, mandate timely payments from large enterprises to SMEs, which is expected to convert accounts payable into short-term loans, thus improving liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that these regulations will help reduce the overall payment delay chain in the economy, enhancing the liquidity of SMEs [2][3]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from ongoing fiscal efforts, particularly if more resources are directed towards social welfare areas such as education and healthcare [3]. - It recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and excess provisions, indicating a favorable long-term return potential [3][5].