Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the US and Chinese bond markets is mainly due to the "hawkish" outlook of US monetary policy and the expectation of fiscal stimulus in China. The US bond yield rebounded, and the focus of the domestic bond market may shift to the expectation of fiscal stimulus. The production price index decreased, and the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased compared to the same period last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data on food, other consumer goods, commodities, energy, metals, real estate, shipping, etc. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.16% week - on - week and 26.81% year - on - year; the 30 - city commercial housing trading area increased by 2.79% week - on - week [16]. High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, export volume, etc., like the relationship between copper spot price year - on - year and industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [90][101]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including the average daily output of crude steel, production price index, and the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, etc. [103][112]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown [162][165].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate market is expected to benefit from policy stimulus and the traditional sales peak in the short term, but faces challenges in Q4 due to high base effects. Attention is needed on whether sales data can remain stable, while investment data shows a trend of stabilization despite a decrease, and new home prices still face downward pressure [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Real Estate Sector - The investment success rate in the real estate sector is improving, with a better competitive landscape among leading companies. Gross margins are expected to improve significantly by Q2 next year. Recommended companies include Shenzhen Investment, China Resources, and China Overseas, as well as diversified targets like Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Quzhou Development [1][7]. - As of August 2025, real estate sales data showed a year-on-year decline of approximately 7%, an improvement from a 14% decline the previous year. This decline is attributed to a significant reduction in land purchases and falling prices of existing assets [3]. - The second-hand housing market is currently more reflective of consumption rather than investment attributes, with price fluctuations primarily influenced by depreciation logic until new housing stabilizes [6]. Construction Industry - The construction industry has been under pressure recently, with cautious performance noted over the past two months. However, there is optimism for Q4 due to expected policy support for stable growth [8][9]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are suggested to be focused on high-dividend assets, metal asset revaluation, and companies benefiting from debt resolution policies, such as China Railway Construction [11][12]. Building Materials Sector - August data for the building materials sector was weak, with cement sales down approximately 8% year-on-year. However, expectations for fiscal stimulus are increasing, and companies focused on domestic demand have shown improved fundamentals [10][12]. - The waterproofing sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with companies like Dongfang Yuhong recommended due to their strong fundamentals and potential benefits from policy planning [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - The global context of interest rate cuts is creating more certainty in external markets, particularly in overseas cement, fiberglass, and photovoltaic glass sectors. Companies like Huaxin Cement, China Jushi, and Xinyi Solar are noted as potential investment opportunities [13]. - The 2025 anti-involution policy is expected to have a profound impact on the supply side, with a focus on sectors like cement and photovoltaic glass, and companies with independent growth logic such as Henkel Group and Puyang Huicheng [14][15]. - Strategies for addressing poor performance in August include focusing on domestic demand, overseas demand, and anti-dumping measures, with specific recommendations for companies like China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, and Xinyi Solar [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which increased by 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2%, indicates a potential rise in inflation, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and creating uncertainty in global capital markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the PPI announcement, there was initial fear in the A-share market about the end of the current bull market, as evidenced by a significant drop in stock prices [1]. - Contrary to expectations, the A-share market rebounded strongly the next day, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising to nearly 3700 points, indicating resilience against negative news [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into two factions regarding interest rate policies, with one side advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the other pushes for aggressive rate cuts [5]. - The outcome of this internal conflict will significantly influence whether the Fed will cut rates in September, with economic data losing its decisive impact on this decision [5][6]. Group 3: A-Share Market Characteristics - The A-share market has evolved into a liquidity-driven market, becoming less sensitive to external news and starting to exhibit independent trends [6]. - The push for increased direct financing by the government has historically led to bull markets within two years, suggesting a potential for sustained growth in the A-share market [8][9]. Group 4: Fiscal Stimulus and Market Growth - The recent fiscal stimulus, particularly from central government funds, has been a key driver of the A-share market's upward momentum, with significant investments from state-owned entities [9]. - The influx of capital from various sources, including consumer loans and relaxed regulatory measures, has further bolstered market liquidity, contributing to the current bullish sentiment [9][10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - For a sustained bull market, the return of resident deposits and corporate foreign exchange funds is crucial, with the potential for significant capital inflow if the stock market continues to perform well [11][12]. - The anticipated return of overseas corporate funds, estimated to be around 2 trillion, could provide substantial support for the A-share market, especially as the U.S. enters a period of potential interest rate cuts [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a preference for absolute and relative returns in the long term [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of M1 has rebounded significantly, driven by three main factors: low base effect, increased fiscal efforts, and strict payment terms [3][12]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to reduce payment delays from large enterprises to SMEs, thereby enhancing liquidity through short-term loans and bond issuance [2][3]. - Despite the positive trends, the report notes that the current M1 growth rate still lags behind the growth rates of social financing, M2, and nominal GDP, indicating a need for further improvement in economic vitality [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - The report discusses the financial data released by the central bank for June 2025, noting that the growth rates of social financing, credit, M2, and M1 align with previous forecasts, with M1 growth exceeding expectations [1][3]. - M1's growth rate for June 2025 is reported at 4.6%, a significant increase from 2.3% in May 2025 [12]. Policy Impact - The new regulations effective from June 1, 2025, mandate timely payments from large enterprises to SMEs, which is expected to convert accounts payable into short-term loans, thus improving liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that these regulations will help reduce the overall payment delay chain in the economy, enhancing the liquidity of SMEs [2][3]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from ongoing fiscal efforts, particularly if more resources are directed towards social welfare areas such as education and healthcare [3]. - It recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and excess provisions, indicating a favorable long-term return potential [3][5].

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2025年二季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 目求 | ● 中金研究团队介绍 p. 2 | | --- | | · 宏观经济 p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 p. 14 | | ● 量化及ESG p. 45 | | ● 固定收益 … p. 52 | | ● 大宗商品 ……………………………… p. 74 | | · 外汇研究 p. 94 | 注:除特别说明,本产品中所有价格数据均截至2025年4月21日 返回目塞 中金研究团队介绍 | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | · 刘刚, CFA | · 周萧漬 | · 许艳 | · ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the construction and building materials sector, emphasizing its resilience to tariffs and trade wars due to its reliance on domestic demand [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector is expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus aimed at domestic consumption and infrastructure projects, making it a key investment focus [3][6]. - Supply-side reforms are likely to favor sectors such as cement, fiberglass, and steel, which are positioned to benefit from reduced competition and improved profitability [3][8]. - Defensive stocks with high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividend yields are highlighted as valuable during market volatility, particularly cement and state-owned enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities Post-Tariff - The construction and building materials sector remains attractive post-tariff due to its focus on domestic demand and local operations, making it less vulnerable to external shocks [2][3]. - Key beneficiaries include sectors directly impacted by fiscal policies, such as cement and consumer building materials [3][8]. Demand Factors for Building Materials - There are clear demand drivers for building materials, particularly from infrastructure projects and consumer home improvements, indicating a stable outlook for both B-end and C-end demand [6][17]. Sector Selection Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach between defensive cement stocks and more aggressive consumer building materials, with a preference for companies like Three Trees and North New Materials [4][7]. Cement Industry Outlook - The cement sector is projected to see improved demand driven by fiscal stimulus, with expectations for a stable or improving national cement shipment rate [10][13]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming demand season [10][13]. Glass Industry Forecast - The glass sector faces challenges due to declining construction-related demand, but low export exposure and potential rebounds in the second half of the year are noted [11][13]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are highlighted for their resilience and dividend yield, making them suitable for investment [11][13]. Fiberglass Sector Analysis - The fiberglass industry is less affected by tariffs due to low export ratios, with strong domestic demand in wind energy and thermoplastics providing a buffer [12][13]. - China Jushi is identified as a key player with a strong position in North America and Europe, mitigating tariff impacts [12][13]. Consumer Building Materials Market - The consumer building materials market is experiencing a decline in demand for waterproof materials, while gypsum board demand remains stable [17][19]. - Companies like North New Materials and Three Trees are noted for their strong performance and strategic pricing approaches [19][20]. Future Demand Drivers - Future demand in the consumer building materials sector is expected to be driven by infrastructure and home renovation projects, with Three Trees positioned for aggressive growth [24].