Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which increased by 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2%, indicates a potential rise in inflation, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and creating uncertainty in global capital markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the PPI announcement, there was initial fear in the A-share market about the end of the current bull market, as evidenced by a significant drop in stock prices [1]. - Contrary to expectations, the A-share market rebounded strongly the next day, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising to nearly 3700 points, indicating resilience against negative news [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into two factions regarding interest rate policies, with one side advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the other pushes for aggressive rate cuts [5]. - The outcome of this internal conflict will significantly influence whether the Fed will cut rates in September, with economic data losing its decisive impact on this decision [5][6]. Group 3: A-Share Market Characteristics - The A-share market has evolved into a liquidity-driven market, becoming less sensitive to external news and starting to exhibit independent trends [6]. - The push for increased direct financing by the government has historically led to bull markets within two years, suggesting a potential for sustained growth in the A-share market [8][9]. Group 4: Fiscal Stimulus and Market Growth - The recent fiscal stimulus, particularly from central government funds, has been a key driver of the A-share market's upward momentum, with significant investments from state-owned entities [9]. - The influx of capital from various sources, including consumer loans and relaxed regulatory measures, has further bolstered market liquidity, contributing to the current bullish sentiment [9][10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - For a sustained bull market, the return of resident deposits and corporate foreign exchange funds is crucial, with the potential for significant capital inflow if the stock market continues to perform well [11][12]. - The anticipated return of overseas corporate funds, estimated to be around 2 trillion, could provide substantial support for the A-share market, especially as the U.S. enters a period of potential interest rate cuts [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a preference for absolute and relative returns in the long term [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of M1 has rebounded significantly, driven by three main factors: low base effect, increased fiscal efforts, and strict payment terms [3][12]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to reduce payment delays from large enterprises to SMEs, thereby enhancing liquidity through short-term loans and bond issuance [2][3]. - Despite the positive trends, the report notes that the current M1 growth rate still lags behind the growth rates of social financing, M2, and nominal GDP, indicating a need for further improvement in economic vitality [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - The report discusses the financial data released by the central bank for June 2025, noting that the growth rates of social financing, credit, M2, and M1 align with previous forecasts, with M1 growth exceeding expectations [1][3]. - M1's growth rate for June 2025 is reported at 4.6%, a significant increase from 2.3% in May 2025 [12]. Policy Impact - The new regulations effective from June 1, 2025, mandate timely payments from large enterprises to SMEs, which is expected to convert accounts payable into short-term loans, thus improving liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that these regulations will help reduce the overall payment delay chain in the economy, enhancing the liquidity of SMEs [2][3]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from ongoing fiscal efforts, particularly if more resources are directed towards social welfare areas such as education and healthcare [3]. - It recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and excess provisions, indicating a favorable long-term return potential [3][5].

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2025年二季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 目求 | ● 中金研究团队介绍 p. 2 | | --- | | · 宏观经济 p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 p. 14 | | ● 量化及ESG p. 45 | | ● 固定收益 … p. 52 | | ● 大宗商品 ……………………………… p. 74 | | · 外汇研究 p. 94 | 注:除特别说明,本产品中所有价格数据均截至2025年4月21日 返回目塞 中金研究团队介绍 | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | · 刘刚, CFA | · 周萧漬 | · 许艳 | · ...