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申万宏观·周度研究成果(9.27-10.10)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-10-11 16:03
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 9 . 2 7 - 1 0 . 1 0 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | 如何理解8月利润走强? 2、数据点评 | 9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能 3、Top Charts | "国庆"假期消费图鉴 4、3分钟看清国庆全球要闻 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第50期:《假期要闻》 第51期:《四季度"前瞻"》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.10.9 9月30日,因临时财政拨款未能及时通过,美国政府时隔近7年再次陷入停摆。此次政府"关门"有何特殊之处,可 能对美国经济及市场产生哪些影响? | 开始日期 | 结束日期 | 持续天数 | 总统 | 参议院多数党 | 众议院多数党 | 核心争议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1981-11-20 1981-11-23 | | 2 | 里根 (R) | 共和党 | ...
申万宏观·周度研究成果(9.27-10.10)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-10-11 04:05
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 9 . 2 7 - 1 0 . 1 0 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | 如何理解8月利润走强? 2、数据点评 | 9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能 3、Top Charts | "国庆"假期消费图鉴 4、3分钟看清国庆全球要闻 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第50期:《假期要闻》 第51期:《四季度"前瞻"》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.10.9 9月30日,因临时财政拨款未能及时通过,美国政府时隔近7年再次陷入停摆。此次政府"关门"有何特殊之处,可 能对美国经济及市场产生哪些影响? | 开始日期 | 结束日期 | 持续天数 | 总统 | 参议院多数党 | 众议院多数党 | 核心争议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1981-11-20 1981-11-23 | | 2 | 里根 (R) | 共和党 | ...
我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-01 05:31
Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] Industry Performance - In September, the PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in Q3 was 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery compared to Q2 and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for manufacturing activities are positive, with a production and operation expectation index of 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting improved market outlook [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, indicating steady performance in the sector [3] Financial Sector - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, with new orders also increasing, indicating strong support for the real economy [4] - The telecommunications and software services sectors maintained high business activity indices, reflecting ongoing growth in new economy sectors [4] Policy and Demand - There is an expectation for macroeconomic policies to be strengthened in Q4, which may boost market confidence and demand [5] - Seasonal factors such as holidays and promotional events are anticipated to enhance consumer demand in the coming months [3][5]
数据点评 | 9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-09-30 16:05
Core Viewpoints - The traditional sectors are experiencing weakened growth, while new momentum shows a significant recovery, necessitating attention to the effects of stable growth policies in key industries [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, aligning with seasonal expectations. The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7][73]. - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a slower recovery compared to previous years. The demand structure continues to show that external demand is outperforming internal demand, with new export orders rising more significantly than domestic orders [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, driven by stronger production, while the price indices for raw materials and factory output remained resilient [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - The PMI for new momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, showed significant improvement, with the equipment manufacturing PMI rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% and high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone at 51.9% [2][19][74]. - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI slightly recovering by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI dropped 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and cultural activities, experienced a significant decline in business activity indices, falling below critical levels [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional momentum faces downward pressure on both quantity and price, new momentum is accelerating its support for the economy. Continuous monitoring of the effects of new incremental policies is essential [3][75]. - The upcoming stable growth policies in key industries like construction materials and steel are expected to mitigate the risks associated with the downturn in infrastructure and real estate sectors [3][75].
9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能:中采PMI点评(25.09)
PMI 数据 2025 年 09 月 30 日 9 月 PMI: 新动能接力旧动能 - 中采 PMI 点评 (25.09) 事件: 9 月 30 日, 国家统计局公布 9 月 PMI 指数, 制造业 PMI 为 49.8%、前值 49.4%; 非制造业 PMI 为 50%、前值 50.3%。 核心观点:传统领域增长走弱下, 新动能景气明显回升, 需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 ● 制造业方面, 9 月 PMI 积极改善,结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。9 月制 造业 PMI 较前月回升 0.4pct 至 49.8%,整体符合季节性。从主要分项看,价格指数保持 韧性下,生产指数升至近 6 个月高点 (51.9%) ,较前月上行 1.1pct,明显好于季节性 (0.3pct) 。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购,采购量指数回升 1.2pct 至 51.6%。而 新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期(0.6pct),较前月仅上行 0.2pct 至 49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势, 表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。拆分需求 结构看, 9 月, 新出口订单指数 ( +0.6pct 至 47.8% ) ...
数据点评 | 9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-09-30 09:54
核心观点:传统领域增长走弱下,新动能景气明显回升,需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 事件: 9月30日,国家统计局公布9月PMI指数,制造业PMI为49.8%、前值49.4%;非制造业PMI为50%、前值 50.3%。 制造业方面,9月PMI积极改善,结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。 9月制造业PMI较前月回升0.4pct 至49.8%,整体符合季节性。从主要分项看,价格指数保持韧性下,生产指数升至近6个月高点(51.9%),较前 月上行1.1pct,明显好于季节性(0.3pct)。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购,采购量指数回升1.2pct至 51.6%。而新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期(0.5pct),较前月仅上行0.2pct至49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势,表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。 拆分需求结构看,9月,新出口 订单指数(+0.6pct至47.8%)上行幅度明显好于内需订单(+0.1pct至50%)。今年以来,外需改善叠加中国在新 兴市场的份额提升,支撑出口持续超预期;高频指标显示,9月外贸货运量同比上行1.8pct至7.8%,说明出口仍 维持韧性。 观察行业看,代表新动 ...
中采PMI点评:9月PMI:新动能接力旧动能
宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 2025 年 09 月 30 日 9 月 PMI:新动能接力旧动能 —— 中采 PMI 点评(25.09) 事件:9 月 30 日,国家统计局公布 9 月 PMI 指数,制造业 PMI 为 49.8%、前值 49.4%; 非制造业 PMI 为 50%、前值 50.3%。 ⚫ 核心观点:传统领域增长走弱下,新动能景气明显回升,需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 制造业方面,9 月 PMI 积极改善,结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。9 月制 造业 PMI 较前月回升 0.4pct 至 49.8%,整体符合季节性。从主要分项看,价格指数保持 韧性下,生产指数升至近 6 个月高点(51.9%),较前月上行 1.1pct,明显好于季节性 (0.3pct)。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购,采购量指数回升 1.2pct 至 51.6%。而 新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期(0.6pct),较前月仅上行 0.2pct 至 49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势,表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。拆分需求 结构看,9 月,新出口订单指数(+0.6pct 至 47.8%)上行幅度明显好于 ...
中国企业跨国经营向新而行
Core Insights - Multinational operations are essential for large enterprises to engage in international competition and become world-class companies, especially under the challenges posed by the complex external environment and economic globalization since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Scale and Growth - The threshold for entering the top 100 Chinese multinational companies has increased from 10.939 billion to 22.173 billion, more than doubling since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Overseas operating revenue has grown from 6.15 trillion to 9.07 trillion, indicating a significant enhancement in market expansion capabilities [1] Group 2: Structural Optimization - The rise of new enterprises, represented by the "new three types," has expanded the breadth and depth of multinational development, with 15 companies in advanced manufacturing sectors like automotive and renewable energy joining the top 100 by 2025, an increase of 3 from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The number of companies in modern service industries, such as internet services and logistics, has increased to 6, up by 5 from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 3: Business Models - Large enterprises are leveraging their hub and platform advantages to drive cluster development across the entire industry and supply chain, establishing both physical "Chinese industrial parks" and digital "industrial parks" [2] - The integration of "artificial intelligence+" is enhancing the supply chain service system, supporting the robust growth of cross-border e-commerce and facilitating the upgrade from "Made in China" to "Chinese brands" [2] Group 4: Technological and Standardization Advancements - The number of invention patents held by the top 100 Chinese multinational companies has increased from 473,000 to 763,000, a growth of approximately 61%, while participation in standard-setting has risen from 53,000 to 62,000, a growth of about 17% [3] - Leading companies in information technology services are transitioning from participants to enablers and shapers in international digital ecological governance by exporting mature business models and technical standards [3] Group 5: Contributions and Responsibilities - Large enterprises are committed to the principle of "consultation, construction, and sharing," actively taking on social responsibilities and pursuing global win-win outcomes, thereby creating jobs and improving livelihoods in host countries [3] - The process of international cooperation is being strengthened through "hard connectivity," "soft connectivity," and "heart connectivity," contributing to the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [3] Group 6: Future Directions - Large enterprises face multiple tasks, including expanding the breadth of "going out," deepening "going in," and enhancing "going up" in international competition [4] - Key strategies include strengthening core technology development, resource integration, participation in global rule-making, and deepening localization efforts to respect local cultures and laws [4]
申万宏观·周度研究成果(9.13-9.19)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-09-21 03:14
Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]
申万宏观·周度研究成果(9.13-9.19)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-09-20 04:05
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 浦聚颖 9 . 1 3 - 9 . 1 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第49期:"降息交易"的反转 2、"洞见系列" 目录 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化 " 2、 热点思考 | 金价,新高之后的"隐忧" 3、 热点思考 | 财政"下半场",可能的"后手"? 高频跟踪 第93期: 《金价,新高之后的"隐忧" 》 第94期: 《财政"下半场",可能的"后手"》 3、"速见系列" 第5期: 《9月FOMC例会:解读与展望》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.9.16 高技术制造业延续高景气下,经济新动能跑出"加速度"。新动能有何"新变化",潜在影响几何? 1、 数据点评 | "存款搬家"提速 2、 数据点评 | "反内卷"影响开始显现 3、 数据点评 | 财政支出趋弱,关注加码可能 4、 国内高频 | 一线城市新房成交改善 5、 海外高频 | 市场消化年内三次降息预期,贵金属价格持续上涨 6、 政策高频 | 金砖 ...