2025 年 8 月 12 日 碳酸锂：偏强运行 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 碳酸锂基本面数据 T T-1 T-5 T-10 T-22 T-66 2509合约（收盘价） 80,560 3,920 11,640 7,440 16,380 15,280 2509合约（成交量） 16,374 -128,760 -231,524 -989,021 -381,648 -19,730 2509合约（持仓量） 148,084 -1,405 -59,686 -230,388 -175,599 94,994 2511合约（收盘价） 81,000 4,040 11,960 9,580 17,080 15,320 2511合约（成交量） 38,071 -857,538 -250,315 -289,774 -165 33,054 2511合约（持仓量） 317,676 -3,030 101,727 148,940 218,436 302 ...

| 中芯国际 | | 981 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 3Q25 收入或恢复增长，维持中性 | | 评级: 中性 | | 收盘价: 港元 48.70 目标价: | 港元 47.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: -3.5% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 2Q25 业绩强于指引：收入环比降 1.7%，毛利率 20.4%，高于我们预期/ 指引上限。我们认为驱动公司业绩好于预期的主要因素是 8 英寸产品的 增长。非控股权益利润约 0.14 亿美元，环比降 89.5%。管理层指引 3Q25 收入恢复环比增长 5%-7%，而毛利率 18%-20%的指引与管理层之前给出 的 2Q25 指引一致。 需求平稳过渡到下半年：管理层指出产能利用率保持近满载状态，我们 认为公司各成熟制程平台需求总体继续温和复苏。管理层提到前三季度 客户或已经提前建立库存，预计 4Q25 急单和备货需求或放缓，但至少 到 10 月公司产能依旧供不应求，管理层将继续收集客户反馈以评估。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 今日焦点 维持中性评级： ...

注：本分析文章仅代表崔东树个人观点，如有异议，请留言。 根据乘联数据，7月全国乘用车市场零售183.4万辆，同比增长6%，环比下降12%。今年以来累计零售1,273.6万辆，同比增长10%。今年国内车市零售呈 现"前低中高后稳"的走势，2025年1-7月乘用车均价是17.1万元，较2024年均价下降0.6万元，其中7月乘用车均价16.9万元，较同期下降0.8万元。 前期常规燃油车价格持续上升，市场萎缩在中低端很明显，而高端萎缩慢，因此从2019年的15万元上升到2024年的18.3万元。2025年随着高端燃油车的萎 缩较快，2025年1-7月的均价降低到18.1万元，7月下降到17.8万元，燃油车购买群体买车少了。而新能源车的均价近期逐步下降，从2023年的均价18.4万 元，下降到2024年的均价17.1万元，2025年的均价16.1万元，目前的2025年7月是16.2万元，价格下降明显，体现新能源车消费的活跃。 2025年1-7月豪华车均价36.2万元，较2024年降0.1万元，7月均价35.8万元，较同期涨0.4万元；2025年1-7月合资品牌17.5万元，较2024年增0.2万元，7月均 价17.5万 ...

8月8日，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（下称"乘联会"）发布2025年7月国内乘用车产销情况。数据显示，7月全国乘用车市场零售182.6万 辆，同比增长6.3%。1-7月累计零售1272.8万辆，同比增长10.1%。通常，因气候炎热，7 - 8月被视为汽车行业淡季，但今年7月销售数据显示市场需求仍然 较强。 不过，与3 - 6月车市15%的高增长相比，7月6.3%的增速略显逊色。对此，乘联分会秘书长崔东树表示，上半年我国GDP为66万亿元，同比增长5.3%，超预 期的经济运行带动了车市超强增长。国家"两新"补贴政策的加力扩围拉动效果突出，形成了上半年的"政策红包"效应。然而，随着第三批补贴资金下发出现 空档期，加之各地高息高返的政策收缩，贷款返利补贴车价的力度大幅缩小，导致消费者感知的购车成本上升，形成了新一轮观望情绪。 出口方面，根据乘联数据，7月乘用车出口（含整车与CKD）47.5万辆，同比增长25%，环比下降1%，1-7月乘用车厂商出口295.5万辆，同比增长9%。7月新 能源车占出口总量的44.7%，较同期增加19个百分点。7月自主品牌出口达到41.5万辆，同比增长34%，环比增长1%；合资 ...

乘联分会：6月新能源车厂商批发渗透率49.8%，较2024年6月提升4.6个百分点 金十数据7月8日讯，乘联分会数据显示，6月新能源车厂商批发渗透率49.8%，较2024年6月提升4.6个百 分点。6月，自主品牌新能源车渗透率66.7%；豪华车中的新能源车渗透率33%；而主流合资品牌新能源 车渗透率仅有6.6%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 showed lower volatility compared to last year. Although short - term factors may disrupt the rhythm, the market still develops around its fundamentals. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. Before significant production cuts in the mining and lithium salt plants, the lithium carbonate market may continue the process of oscillating and bottom - hunting. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025. For industrial customers and investment institutions, they can seize the staged downward market [6][23][24]. - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the mining end, but the over - capacity of lithium salt is still large. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly and remains below 70,000 yuan/ton for a long time in the second half of 2025, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises are expected to gradually reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed. The total supply is expected to be 1.65 million tons of LCE, still in an oversupply pattern [8][24]. - On the demand side, new energy vehicles and energy storage are still the two main drivers of consumption growth. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 34.4% and 35.5%. In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales data still maintained a high growth rate. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and global sales will reach about 23 million, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high, with an annual year - on - year growth rate of about 40%. Overall, the consumption growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to be about 22% [9][10]. - In terms of balance, the oversupply situation will continue in the second half of 2025, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. It is expected that the annual oversupply will be 210,000 tons of LCE [11][12]. - Regarding inventory, smelters contribute the main inventory increase, and attention should be paid to the delivery inventory. It is expected that the lithium salt inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [13]. - Conclusion: The lithium carbonate price may continue to bottom - hunt. Although the supply - demand situation shows a double - increase pattern in 2025, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Due to the price drop, the supply growth rate may slow down, and the degree of oversupply will decrease. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [14]. Section Summaries Strategy Summary - In the first quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were relatively stable. The 2505 contract rebounded from 77,800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 81,680 yuan/ton, a 4.99% increase, and then fell to 74,160 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, the demand growth rate declined, and the industry returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The 2507 contract fell from 74,500 yuan/ton in early April to the annual low of 58,460 yuan/ton, a 21.53% decrease. Later, with the extension of the US tariff exemption and the call to eliminate backward production capacity, the price rebounded to around 64,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 10% increase [5]. Price Review - In the first half of 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price first rose and then fell. In the first quarter, it was relatively stable. In the second quarter, it was affected by the Sino - US tariff war and demand slowdown, and the price dropped significantly. In June, with the relaxation of the tariff war and the support of energy storage exports, the price rebounded [5][22]. Market Outlook - In the second half of 2025, the overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises may reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed [23][24]. Supply - side Situation - From January to June 2025, China's domestic lithium carbonate production was about 429,600 tons, a 43.91% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to be about 900,000 tons, a 33% increase. Lithium hydroxide production was about 142,200 tons, a 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The overall production is expected to continue to increase. The over - capacity of lithium salt smelting is large, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production or stop production [42]. Lithium Mine Production Cuts, Start - ups, and Cost Tracking - **Resource - end Increment**: In 2025, the total supply of the resource end is expected to be 1.57 million tons of LCE. Africa, domestic mines, and salt lakes, as well as South American salt lakes and Australian mines, will contribute to the increment [47]. - **Production Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of using salt lakes for production is relatively low, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Self - owned mine enterprises have a cash cost of 40,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing ore is relatively high, and most of the time this year, they are in a loss situation. It is expected that the global lithium mine oversupply situation will be difficult to change, and the lithium mine price may further decline [50][51]. Import - Export - From January to May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 2.92 million tons, a 39.97% year - on - year increase. Lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a 15.3% increase, and the annual import is expected to reach 250,000 tons. Exports were 2,100 tons, and the annual export is expected to be 4,000 tons. Lithium hydroxide exports were 21,600 tons, a 59.9% year - on - year decrease, and imports were 6,470 tons, with a significant year - on - year increase [61][63]. Consumption - side - **Lithium Consumption**: In 2025, lithium consumption is mainly driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage. From January to May, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, while the growth of ternary materials was limited. In the battery end, the sales and exports of power and other batteries increased significantly. In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high [72][74][77]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to have an annual oversupply of 60,000 tons, and the global lithium resource is expected to have an annual oversupply of 220,000 tons of LCE [107]. Inventory - As of the end of June, the total lithium carbonate inventory reached 136,800 tons, with smelters contributing the main increase. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [114].

Core Viewpoint - The delivery ceremony of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition, China's first airborne car delivery, took place on a private jet, highlighting the luxury and innovative experience of the vehicle [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features - The official starting price of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is 899,000 yuan, featuring luxurious elements such as gold accents and high-quality materials, appealing to high-end consumers [1]. - The vehicle is designed with safety and comfort in mind, including a unique one-piece cast C-ring seat that secures rear seats to the aluminum body, ensuring passenger safety [5]. - It boasts the world's first LC privacy dimming glass, which can switch from bright to dark in one second, with a UV blocking rate of 99.9% and a shading rate of 99.5% [5]. - The seats are made from ultra-soft aniline leather, featuring 11 layers and 12 ergonomic support zones, providing 20 massage points and a graphene thermal SPA experience [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Insights - The Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is favored by high-end users, with a significant portion of buyers being executives and entrepreneurs, predominantly male [1][3]. - The vehicle's performance is notable, being the fastest accelerating MPV globally, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 3.9 seconds, and equipped with a battery that allows for over 500 km of range in just 11.5 minutes of charging [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has surpassed 50%, with domestic brands like Zeekr capturing a significant share of the 600,000 yuan market segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local luxury vehicles [6].

2025 年 6 月 10 日 汽车行业月报 交银国际研究 行业更新 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 行业评级 | 估值概要 | | --- | | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E | | | | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 503.25 | 396.60 | 23.284 | 27.386 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 3.40 | 2.68 | 0.1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the second-hand car market in China is experiencing a slight decline in transaction volume and value in April 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand cars reached 6.31 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while the transaction value was 413.4 billion yuan, showing a decline of 2.7% [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the second-hand car market continues to rise, reaching 9.1% in April 2025 [1]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250407-20250411） 电车车险增量可期，估值回调、建议关注当 推荐（维持） 下配置性价比 ❑ 本周行情复盘：本周保险指数-4.77%，跑输大盘 1.89pct。保险个股整体下跌， 平安-4.14%，国寿-4.23%，阳光-5.06%，太保-6.54%，人保-6.82%，新华-7.38%， 财险-10.20%，众安-12.01%，友邦-15.93%，太平-16.17%。10 年期国债收益率 1.66%，较上周末-6bps。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）金监总局：①4 月 8 日，印发《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例 有关事项的通知》，主要内容包括三方面，一是上调权益资产配置比例上限， 二是提高投资创业投资基金的集中度比例，三是放宽税延养老比例监管要求。 ②4 月 11 日，对原保监会《保险集团并表监管指引》进行修订，并印发《保险 集团并表监督管理办法》。③发布《金融机构产品适当性管理办法（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称"《管理办法》"），对保险销售提出更为细化明确的要求。同时 为配合《管理办法》在保险业的落地，保险业协会近期已经组织多家会员单位， 共同编 ...