kate_sept2004 / Getty Images Market-matching returns, minimal fees, and compounding together make index funds one of the most reliable paths to building wealth. Key Takeaways Index funds consistently outperform actively managed funds. They also cost less and can work better tax-wise. Index funds invest in a bucket of stocks that represent a part of the stock market, like the S&P 500. Many dream of retiring early, but achieving that goal doesn't require high-priced financial advisors or complex inv ...

马克斯认为，"钟摆永不会停在中点"，市场从来不是理性的直线，而是像永不停止的钟摆，始终在两个极端间来回摆动。 这种比喻，诠释了资产价格在情绪与价值博弈下所天然具有的巨大波动性。 行至尾声的2025年，正是人们领略市场波动势能的一年。 从年初的恒生科技龙头的估值修复，到4月份的对等关税黑天鹅，再到下半年科技股引领的科创两板攻势，市场呈现了一副曲折向上的过程。 这同样是权益资产守得云开见月明的积累，一年多前的"9·24"反转，让市场开始看见乐观；今年的A股结构式复苏，似乎守望中的黎明正在加速到来。 可是市场始终如钟摆一般，从来没有所谓的"均衡稳态"，更多时只能从一个极端的非均衡，折跃到了另一个极端的远非均衡。 作者：资管风铃 1991 年，后来创办了橡树资本的霍华德・马克斯正置身于一场市场的剧震中。 刚刚经历美国储贷危机与海湾战争引发的恐慌性抛售，高收益债等资产被疯狂踩踏至低估区间，转年一季度市场又毫无征兆地迎来情绪反弹。 亲历过"漂亮 50" 等泡沫崩塌，见证了资产价格与投资情绪在贪婪与恐惧间的反复摇摆后，马克斯在当年4月的投资者备忘录中提出了一个形象的总结：钟 摆理论。 即将展开的2026年，市场参与者或许要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, after 60 years in the role, handing over to Greg Abel, who will take on the role of chairman behind the scenes. Buffett's legacy includes a company valued at over $1 trillion, with post-tax profitability nearing $50 billion and cash reserves exceeding $350 billion [4][5]. Group 1 - The transition of CEO has generated significant buzz in the business and investment communities since Buffett's unexpected announcement of retirement at the shareholder meeting in May [5]. - Buffett's cautious approach in recent years has slowed down the company's performance, with Berkshire's large cash holdings negatively impacting its results [6][7]. - As of December 29, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares increased by 10.44%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 17.41% gain, and the company has underperformed the index over the past 3, 10, and 15 years [7]. Group 2 - Over 80% of Berkshire's revenue comes from the U.S., and the company has diversified its business, resembling a mutual fund in the stock market [8]. - Greg Abel, who has been with Berkshire for many years and has experience in managing its energy and non-insurance businesses, is seen as an unknown factor in the eyes of the public [9]. - Analysts note that while Abel has strong operational and financial management skills, he lacks the investment management experience and reputation that Buffett built over 60 years [10]. Group 3 - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on value investing, viewing stocks as ownership in businesses and planning for long-term holds [30]. - His investment process involves thorough due diligence, recognizing quality companies, and waiting for exceptional opportunities to invest [30]. - Buffett's unique approach includes increasing his holdings when stock prices drop, contrasting with the typical investor behavior of selling during downturns [31]. Group 4 - Buffett's success is attributed to five core traits: alertness and decisiveness in judgment, simplicity in analysis, the ability to distinguish between great and mediocre investments, long-term focus, and flexibility in improving investment strategies [34][36]. - He has navigated various market conditions, maintaining exceptional performance despite increasing competition and market complexities [36]. - Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing in quality companies and holding them for the long term, which has proven to be a successful strategy [36][40]. Group 5 - Buffett's philanthropic efforts include a significant donation of $31 billion to the Gates Foundation, which doubled its annual funding capacity, and he co-founded the "Giving Pledge" to encourage billionaires to donate a majority of their wealth [62][63]. - His approach to investing and philanthropy reflects a commitment to traditional American values and a belief in the long-term potential of the U.S. economy [20][60]. - Buffett's legacy is not only in his financial achievements but also in his life philosophy, which emphasizes doing the right thing for businesses and shareholders [66].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 陈达美股投资 来源：雪球 沉迷于水晶球者，终吞碎镜。（He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.） ——— 雷·达里奥 01 席勒与法 马 我们来看两个诺奖级别的学者，都是巨擘。一个是罗伯特·席勒，他说"有效市场理论会导致对一些事件的严重误读，比如股市泡沫。" 而另一个经 济学家——他本身就是"有效市场理论"的爸爸——尤金·法马，他说"（行为主义者）定义 泡沫 为价格非理性的、强劲的上升，搞得好像他们能够 预测出之后价格一定会强劲下跌一样。但根据现有研究，并没有可靠证据表明这些人可以预测资产价格下跌。" 两个大佬的观点，可谓是针尖对上 了麦芒。 但宛似一种黑幽默，在命运女神的终极嘲讽下，席勒和法马这两个互掐的学阀大佬，居然站在同一年的诺贝尔经济学奖的领奖台上，不得不分享桂 冠，并面面相觑。 最近恒生科技走势逆风。所谓 顺风吹牛逼，逆风谈人生，今天我想来聊聊"关于预测以及股市预测"这件事，预测股市为何如此之难 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a decline in the expected return on equity (ROE) for the Wande All A and Wande All A non-financial indices, with forecasts for Q4 2025 at 7.50% and 6.60% respectively, down from previous estimates [2][3][37] - The sentiment indices for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have decreased from historical highs, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [2][3][4] - The A-share market shows a preference for large-cap and value styles, with positive relative returns expected in sectors such as home appliances, electricity and utilities, defense and military, electronics, computers, and insurance [2][4] Group 2 - The global multi-asset allocation strategies have shown negative returns in November, with the low-risk portfolio returning -0.16% and the medium-high risk portfolio returning -1.04% [2][3] - The A-share industry and style rotation index has also experienced a decline, with a November return of -2.94%, although the year-to-date return remains strong at 27.88% [2][3] - The analysis indicates a divergence in valuations among industries, with coal, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electric power equipment and new energy, defense and military, automotive, electronics, and computers showing PB percentiles above 50% [4] Group 3 - The forecast for gold priced in US dollars is expected to strengthen, driven by factors such as declining real interest rates, weak economic conditions, increased market volatility, and geopolitical tensions [3][53] - The analysis of the economic cycles indicates that the US and Japan are entering a downward GDP cycle, while the Eurozone is predicted to peak in Q3 2025 [3][41][44] - The sentiment indicators for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflect a decrease in trading activity, with recent trends showing a decline in new A-share account openings and the establishment of new equity funds [4][68][75]

Group 1 - The report suggests an overweight allocation in Chinese AH stocks and industrial commodities for November, driven by expectations of intensified market volatility due to AI industry trends [1][4]. - The recommended asset allocation is 45% equities, 45% bonds, and 10% commodities, with specific allocations for A-shares and H-shares [4][6]. - The report expresses optimism about Chinese equities, citing improved bilateral relations with the US and stable domestic financial conditions as supportive factors [4][6]. Group 2 - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework aims to mitigate macro risks by establishing long-term allocation benchmarks, while tactical asset allocation (TAA) identifies short-term risk-return characteristics [4][14]. - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that deviations from expected economic performance can lead to significant asset price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of aligning asset allocation with macroeconomic expectations [17][21]. - The report highlights the potential for industrial metals, particularly copper, to experience price increases due to supply-demand imbalances driven by structural demand from sectors like construction and electric vehicles [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures represents a significant innovation in China's shipping finance sector, providing a "Chinese price" benchmark for global shipping trade and enhancing China's pricing power in the international shipping market [1][2][3]. Group A: Significance of the Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures - The Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures, launched on August 18, 2023, is China's first shipping futures product, marking a critical step in the shipping finance sector [2]. - This futures contract fills a gap in the market by providing a transparent and efficient risk management platform for industry chain enterprises, addressing the long-standing issue of price volatility in shipping [2][3]. - The contract is denominated in RMB and cash-settled, breaking the long-standing dominance of the USD in shipping derivatives and enhancing the RMB's position in international shipping trade [3]. Group B: Price Discovery Function - Price discovery is a core function of the futures market, allowing for the rapid integration of dispersed market information into futures prices [4][5]. - The effectiveness of price discovery is measured through methods such as price correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, and information share models, which assess the relationship between futures and spot prices [5]. - The introduction of market makers and optimized contract design has attracted numerous participants, laying a solid foundation for effective price discovery [5][6]. Group C: Empirical Performance of Price Discovery - Since its launch, the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures has shown strong performance in price discovery, with significant trading volume and market recognition [6]. - As of October 15, 2025, the main contract had a trading volume of approximately 3.641 billion RMB, indicating strong demand for price risk management [6]. - The futures prices have demonstrated a forward-looking nature, reacting more sensitively to market changes compared to spot prices [7]. Group D: Factors Influencing Price Discovery - The effectiveness of price discovery is influenced by demand changes, supply adjustments, and variations in transportation distance [9][10]. - Demand fluctuations are driven by global trade dynamics and economic indicators, which directly impact container shipping volumes and pricing [9]. - Supply-side adjustments, such as fleet capacity and operational strategies, significantly affect market supply and pricing [10][11]. Group E: Future Outlook - The Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures has established itself as a "Chinese price" benchmark in the global shipping market, with significant potential for future growth [12]. - Increased participation from industry clients, particularly leading shipping companies, is expected to enhance market depth and stability [12]. - The product line may expand to include futures contracts for other routes and shipping segments, creating a more comprehensive shipping derivatives system [12][13].

Core Insights - The financial market is characterized by a significant lack of certainty, with many investors unaware of the chaotic nature of price movements and the influence of macroeconomic variables [2][5] - Behavioral finance reveals that cognitive biases, such as loss aversion and attribution bias, hinder investors' ability to achieve stable profits [6][8] - The lifecycle of trading strategies shows that they often degrade over time, with successful strategies becoming less effective as they gain popularity [9][13] - Risk management is crucial, as even strategies with a high win rate can lead to catastrophic losses due to leverage and market volatility [14][18] - Historical examples, such as the collapse of LTCM and FTX, illustrate the dangers of overconfidence and the importance of humility in trading [23] Market Characteristics - The financial market is described as a "chaos theater" where non-linear feedback loops and unexpected events can drastically affect prices [2] - The unpredictability of the market is highlighted by events like the UK pension crisis, which caused a sudden spike in bond yields [5] Behavioral Insights - Investors often exhibit a tendency to cut profits short while letting losses run, driven by a psychological aversion to loss [6] - The phenomenon of attribution bias leads traders to misinterpret the reasons for their successes and failures, preventing learning from mistakes [8] Strategy Dynamics - Trading strategies experience a lifecycle where initial high returns diminish as more participants adopt them, leading to reduced profitability [9][13] - The rapid obsolescence of strategies, particularly in high-frequency trading, emphasizes the need for continuous adaptation [13] Risk Management - The mathematical probabilities associated with trading strategies can lead to unexpected outcomes, highlighting the importance of robust risk management practices [14][18] - Historical cases of financial disasters serve as cautionary tales about the risks of excessive leverage and the illusion of control in trading [23]

Core Points - Sun Yuchen, known for his unconventional path from winning a writing competition to becoming a major player in cryptocurrency, has invested $75 million in the Trump family-supported project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) [1] - His public image is polarizing, with supporters viewing him as a visionary entrepreneur and critics labeling him a speculator [3] - Sun's cryptocurrency narrative is characterized by evading regulation, starting with the establishment of TRON in 2017, which claims to offer a decentralized platform [4][5] Investment and Regulatory Context - TRON's fundraising occurred just days before a Chinese regulatory ban on token issuance, raising suspicions about Sun's foresight regarding regulatory changes [5] - The project faced accusations of plagiarism in its white paper, suggesting a lack of originality and transparency [5] - Sun's subsequent appointment as Grenada's ambassador to the WTO highlights a controversial shift in his career, leveraging Caribbean citizenship for political protection [6][7] Citizenship and Regulatory Evasion - Sun acquired citizenship from Saint Kitts and Nevis, known for its lax immigration policies, allowing for quick nationality acquisition [8][9] - This citizenship has been associated with facilitating money laundering, making it an attractive option for individuals seeking to evade regulatory scrutiny [9][10] - Sun's strategy involved obtaining multiple citizenships to create legal barriers against potential regulatory actions from stronger nations [12][13] Legal Challenges and Political Connections - The SEC filed a lawsuit against Sun and his companies for unregistered securities issuance and market manipulation, which he contested by claiming the actions were outside U.S. jurisdiction [18][19] - Following a significant investment in Trump-related projects, the SEC paused its civil fraud case against him, raising concerns about political influence in regulatory matters [21][22] - This situation reflects a broader trend of individuals seeking political connections to navigate legal challenges, showcasing the intersection of finance and politics [23] Broader Implications of Neoliberalism - Sun's story exemplifies the contradictions of neoliberal globalization, where market mechanisms often serve elite interests rather than the public good [25][26] - The commodification of citizenship, as seen in Caribbean nations selling citizenship, highlights the challenges to national sovereignty and regulatory frameworks [27] - Sun's narrative of decentralization in cryptocurrency is critiqued as a façade for centralization, undermining the principles of a truly decentralized economy [28][29] Conclusion - Sun Yuchen's trajectory from regulatory evasion to political maneuvering illustrates the inherent flaws in neoliberal ideologies, revealing a significant gap between the ideals of free markets and the realities of power dynamics [32][33]

Group 1 - Capital Fund Management (CFM) is a prominent quantitative hedge fund based in Paris, managing approximately $20 billion in assets, making it one of the oldest and largest quantitative funds in Europe [1][9] - The founder and current chairman, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, is a theoretical physicist who transitioned into finance after critiquing the Black-Scholes option pricing model [2][19] - Bouchaud argues that the recent bull market in the stock market is largely driven by continuous capital inflows rather than improvements in corporate earnings or economic fundamentals [3][25] Group 2 - Bouchaud's perspective is based on the "inelastic markets hypothesis," which suggests that the impact of capital inflows on market capitalization is significantly greater than traditional economic theories suggest [4][24] - Research indicates that for every $1 invested in the stock market, approximately $5 in market value is created, and this effect is long-lasting [5][23] - The hypothesis challenges the efficient market hypothesis, positing that capital flows have a much larger and more permanent impact on market dynamics than previously thought [24][25] Group 3 - Bouchaud emphasizes that this phenomenon is not limited to the U.S. market but could also affect European and global markets, raising concerns about potential consequences if capital flows reverse [6][25] - The rise of passive investment tools, such as index funds and ETFs, has led to a significant increase in capital inflows, particularly in the U.S. market, where firms like Vanguard and BlackRock manage substantial assets [5][25] - Bouchaud expresses concern that the increasing reliance on passive investment strategies may exacerbate market "inelasticity," leading to prolonged upward trends that could create bubbles [26][27]