【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地 与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估 值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认同，更预示着冬去春 来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作 室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新 机遇。 管涛表示，2025年金价飙升连创50多次历史新高，很重要的原因就是全球不确定性增加。其中，特朗普 关税政策是这种不确定性的主要来源。 1月5日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展 望"专题，带来分析和展望。 管涛此前曾长期在政府部门工作，目前还担任中国证券业协会新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委 员会的主任委员。 对于2026年海外主要经济体的货币政策，管涛认为，将进入"多速并行"阶段， ...

机构普遍对权益类资产持较为乐观的态度。富国基金公开表示，沪深300指数股权风险溢价仍处于正一 倍标准差以上水平，相较持续下行的无风险利率，权益资产的风险补偿仍较可观。同时，宏观流动性支 撑仍然有利，全球主要经济体信用周期有望延续温和扩张态势，较好的流动性条件为权益与商品等资产 创造相对有利的环境。而在内需政策持续发力与外需边际企稳的共同作用下，企业盈利修复有望进一步 夯实。（上证报） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for various ETFs, particularly the 中证A500ETF, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][3] - On December 17, multiple 中证A500ETF products reached record trading volumes, with 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF achieving a trading volume of 14.118 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The 中证A500ETF is recognized as a new generation of broad-based ETFs, balancing core large-cap assets with growth potential across various leading companies in niche sectors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors are significant holders of broad-based ETFs, with over 80% of the shares in 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF held by institutions as of June 30 [1] - The trading activity of other broad-based ETFs also surged, with 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF reaching a trading volume of 5.079 billion yuan and 华夏科创50ETF at 3.948 billion yuan on the same day [2] - Since November, net subscriptions for equity ETFs have totaled 105.241 billion yuan, with a notable single-day net subscription of 15.688 billion yuan on December 16 [2] Group 3 - The 港股 innovation drug theme ETFs have also attracted significant capital, with 汇添富港股通创新药ETF and 广发港股创新药ETF seeing net subscriptions of 3.624 billion yuan and over 2.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Several ETFs have reached new highs in terms of shares outstanding, including 南方中证A500ETF with 25.131 billion shares and 华夏恒生科技ETF with 66.012 billion shares [3] - New fund launches have maintained high interest, with several funds exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in issuance in December, and some funds announcing early closure of their fundraising [3] Group 4 - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view on equity assets, with 富国基金 noting that the equity risk premium for the 沪深300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation [4] - Continued macro liquidity support is expected to create a favorable environment for equities and commodities, with a moderate expansion in the global credit cycle [4] - The combination of ongoing domestic demand policies and stabilizing external demand is anticipated to further solidify corporate profit recovery [4]

12月11日至13日，每日经济新闻与海南国际经济发展局联合主办的2025第十四届上市公司发展年会暨海 南自贸港开放机遇交流大会系列活动在海口举行。广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平12日发 表主旨演讲时指出，随着房地产政策调整加之市场下行，大量资金从楼市溢出转向其他市场，过去以房 产为主导的居民资产构成逐步转向多元配置。房产、理财产品等资产的投资收益大幅降低，让投资者进 行资产配置的需求明显上升，权益类资产成为最优选择。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investment products can still generate returns during holiday periods, depending on the type of assets they are invested in and the specific terms of the products [1][2]. Summary by Category Investment Products - Fixed income assets, such as bonds and deposits, continue to accumulate interest during holidays, while equity assets, like stocks, do not generate capital gains due to market closures [1][2]. - Most fixed income and some equity investment products can provide opportunities for returns during holiday periods [2][3]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to purchase investment products that confirm shares before the holiday to ensure they can benefit from returns during the holiday [3][4]. - Two key strategies for maximizing returns during holidays include selecting products with "share confirmation" before the holiday and those that confirm based on the net asset value (NAV) prior to the holiday [3][4]. Product Features - The majority of investment products have a share confirmation date of T+1, meaning investors should plan to make purchases on the second-to-last trading day before the holiday [3][5]. - Some products allow for NAV confirmation based on the last trading day before the holiday, enabling investors to enjoy static interest returns during the holiday [4][5]. Market Behavior - Returns from certain net value-based investment products may not be immediately visible during weekends and holidays, but will be reflected on the first trading day after the holiday [7][8]. - The "Easy Enjoy" series of investment products from Shanghai Bank's subsidiary allows for NAV confirmation before holidays, providing an opportunity for holiday investment returns [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the hidden risks associated with high-yield fixed-income products in a slowing economic environment, where investors may face significant losses if bonds default [2] - The "Fixed Income +" strategy is gaining popularity among investors as a way to achieve higher returns without increasing risk in fixed-income products [2][3] - The concept of "Fixed Income +" has become a mainstream investment strategy in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, where traditional fixed-income yields have declined [3][4] Group 2 - In Japan, the shift to a negative interest rate environment has led to a high proportion of "Fixed Income +" investments as individuals seek better returns [4] - The decline in traditional fixed-income yields in both overseas and domestic markets is driving investors to seek alternative products that offer stable returns [4] - The article suggests that for those looking for a more effortless investment in "Fixed Income +", the monthly salary treasure investment advisory portfolio is currently a suitable option [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in wealth management strategies in response to the declining interest rates, with a focus on how financial institutions are adapting to meet changing consumer needs [2][4][8] Group 1: Changes in Wealth Management Demand - The low interest rate environment is reshaping residents' wealth management needs and risk preferences, moving away from reliance on real estate and high-interest deposits to more diversified asset allocation strategies [4] - Three significant changes in client demands for wealth management are identified: a rational adjustment of return expectations, an increased demand for protection products, and a growing awareness of global asset allocation [4][6] - The insurance market reflects the trend of increasing demand for products that balance protection and returns, with a notable 20% year-on-year growth in insurance premiums through bancassurance channels [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Financial institutions are employing a "dual-track strategy" of "core assets + opportunity assets" to adapt to the low interest rate environment, focusing on dynamic adjustments based on market changes [6][7] - The "fixed income +" product category is highlighted as the fastest-growing fund type, with a net inflow of 460 billion in the third quarter, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite among investors [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation, with a focus on technology innovation and undervalued high-dividend assets as key investment directions [7][8] Group 3: The Era of Asset Management - The article posits that China is entering a true asset management era, characterized by a shift towards equity assets as the core vehicle for future wealth growth [8][9] - International investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and electric vehicles, which are seen as having global competitiveness [8][9] - The article concludes that financial institutions should focus on comprehensive planning that meets clients' risk, return, and liquidity needs, while emphasizing the importance of active management capabilities in fund companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by the low interest rate environment, emphasizing the need for diversified wealth management strategies among residents to achieve wealth growth despite declining traditional savings options [4][11]. Group 1: Changes in Wealth Management Demand - The low interest rate cycle is reshaping residents' wealth management needs and risk preferences, moving away from reliance on real estate and high-interest deposits to a more diversified asset allocation approach [6]. - Three significant changes in client demands for wealth management have been identified: a rational adjustment of investment return expectations, an increasing demand for protection products, and a growing awareness of global asset allocation [6][9]. - The insurance market reflects this trend, with a 20% year-on-year growth in premium income from insurance channels, particularly in long-term dividend insurance products related to retirement [6][9]. Group 2: Fund Market Trends - The fund market is also showing signs of changing demands, with a recovery in the issuance of equity funds and a notable increase in "fixed income plus" products, which saw a net inflow of 460 billion yuan in the third quarter [7][8]. - The strategy of combining "fixed income" as a base with "opportunistic" assets is being recommended to adapt to the low interest rate environment, with a focus on risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. Group 3: Asset Management Era - The article posits that China is entering a true asset management era, where equity assets are becoming the core vehicle for future wealth growth, driven by technological innovation [11]. - International investment teams are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and electric vehicles, which are seen as having global competitiveness [11][12]. Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Asset Allocation - Financial institutions are encouraged to adopt a multi-dimensional asset allocation strategy to optimize domestic and international assets, thereby diversifying risks and capturing opportunities [13]. - Active management capabilities are highlighted as a core competitive advantage for fund companies, emphasizing the importance of long-termism and deep research foundations [13].

Group 1 - A significant migration of funds is occurring from the bond market to the equity market, with bond funds facing large redemptions while equity funds are experiencing strong inflows [1] - Over 15 bond funds have faced large redemptions in November, prompting fund managers to increase the precision of net asset values [2] - The issuance of new bond funds has cooled, with only 6 pure bond funds launched in November, totaling 1.86 billion [2] Group 2 - Equity products are showing strong "capital absorption" capabilities, with several funds reaching their fundraising limits quickly [4] - As of November 18, equity ETFs have seen a net subscription of 48.47 billion in November, with sector-specific ETFs being particularly popular [4][5] - Since October, equity ETFs have experienced a net inflow of 143.62 billion, indicating a sustained interest in equity investments [5] Group 3 - Fund companies are actively launching new equity funds, with 103 out of 118 new products reported in November being equity-related [6] - Market sentiment is currently characterized by a lack of clear direction, leading to frequent fund rotation among sectors [7] - Long-term investment in equity assets is still considered valuable, with a focus on companies with growth potential and strong overseas market expansion [7]

Core Insights - The insurance sector's asset management balance continues to grow, with an increase in equity investments and a decrease in fixed-income asset allocation [1][2][5] Group 1: Asset Management Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total asset management balance of insurance companies reached 37.46 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.52% [2] - The balance of life insurance companies was approximately 33.73 trillion yuan, up 16.55% year-on-year, while property insurance companies had a balance of 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.79% increase [2] Group 2: Equity Investments - Life insurance companies increased their stock investment balance to 3.41 trillion yuan, a rise of 539.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with the proportion of equity investments increasing to 10.12% from 8.81% [2] - Property insurance companies also saw an increase in stock investments, reaching 208.6 billion yuan, up 13.1 billion yuan, with the proportion rising to 8.74% from 8.33% [2] Group 3: Securities Investment Funds - The investment in securities investment funds by life and property insurance companies also increased, with balances of 1.78 trillion yuan and 196.4 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 298.9 billion yuan and 12.7 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Fixed-Income Asset Allocation - Despite fixed-income assets being a primary allocation direction, their proportion has decreased, with total bond investments at 18.18 trillion yuan, accounting for 48.52% of the total asset management balance, down 0.79 percentage points [5] - Life insurance companies' bond investment balance was 17.21 trillion yuan, with a proportion decrease to 51.02% from 51.9% in the previous quarter [5] Group 5: Bank Deposits - Both life and property insurance companies saw a decrease in bank deposit allocations, with balances of 2.49 trillion yuan and 374.2 billion yuan respectively, down 128.3 billion yuan and 30.4 billion yuan [6] Group 6: Future Trends - The insurance industry is expected to continue growing in asset management balance, with a potential increase in equity asset allocation and a shift towards active management strategies [8] - Analysts suggest that the current low-interest-rate environment and the asymmetric reduction in insurance premium rates may lead to a greater focus on equity markets [8]