Core Viewpoint - The company continues to be optimistic about the performance of "forestry-pulp-paper integration" leaders by 2026, emphasizing that integration is key to achieving cost hedging and resource revaluation amid resource constraints and cost fluctuations. Focus should be on "value integrators" with high fiber self-sufficiency and resource barriers [2]. Industry Overview - After the paper industry bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, with a "long tail effect" in paper capacity clearance. The industry chain currently shows characteristics of "high concentration at the resource end and dispersed competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource commanding strong pricing power. The midstream paper sector is squeezed by high pulp prices and weak demand, leading to a continuous narrowing of profit margins [5][7]. - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration. Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is unsustainable. The core strategy has shifted to using self-owned fiber to hedge against volatile pulp prices, transforming leading companies from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [5][8]. Market Dynamics - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected in 2026, with a potential recovery in pulp price levels. The domestic market has seen large-scale production of self-made pulp, but the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production. This is anticipated to push up cost levels as demand marginally improves [6]. - The competition landscape is characterized by heavy asset attributes and slow clearance. The investment per ton of paper exceeds 5,000 yuan, while pulp investment is over 2,000 yuan, leading to a long payback period. High depreciation necessitates maintaining high capacity utilization for cash flow, but the supply exceeds demand, and the core contradiction lies in the slow clearance efficiency at the bottom of the cycle [7]. Strategic Evolution - The industry has transitioned from a demand-driven phase to a mature phase of stock competition. Due to a lack of quality forest resources for pulp production, paper companies are in a "strong manufacturing, weak resource" decoupling state, making them vulnerable to global pulp price and exchange rate fluctuations. The strategic focus of leading companies has shifted to "forestry-pulp-paper integration," allowing them to convert unstable processing profits into certain resource premiums [8][9]. Global Comparison - Compared to emerging markets like Brazil, which are still in a dual growth phase of resources and consumption, the valuation logic of Chinese paper companies is undergoing reconstruction. Future focus will shift from capacity growth to the self-sufficiency rate of the entire industry chain. Leading companies are moving away from being "global resource movers" and are enhancing their cost control capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining stable ROE and achieving valuation recovery [9].

2026 年 01 月 08 日 新究品 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 panqyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 能眼镜首次纳入国补;关注 京东工业、伟易达 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/29-2026/01/03 朗投资提示: 【顾家家居】【慕思股份】【欧派家居】【索菲亚】 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》发 電票股示: 1） 注智能眼镜、智能家居; 2) 造纸: 新发《2026年造纸行业投资策略: 林浆纸 ...

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 08 日 智能眼镜首次纳入国补；关注造纸 策略、京东工业、伟易达深度报告 看好 —— 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/29-2026/01/03 本期投资提示： 【顾家家居】【慕思股份】【欧派家居】【索菲亚】 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关 ...

中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资 源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继，战 略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸一体化"龙头表现，在 资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具备高纤维自给率、拥有 资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 本文源自：格隆汇 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.890 | 10.42% | | 02314 | 理文造纸 | 3.090 | 6.92% | | 01812 | 眉暗纸业 | 0.810 | 3.85% | 1月7日，港股纸业股涨幅进一步扩大，其中，玖龙纸业大涨超10%刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨近7%， 晨鸣纸业涨近4%。 消息上，近期，以玖龙、山鹰、理文、荣成为代表的包装纸企业大规模停机检修，主动收缩产能；博 汇、APP、万国纸业、亚太森博等白卡纸及文化纸厂商集体宣布涨价。这种"停机+涨价"的并存的现 ...

中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资 源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继，战 略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸一体化"龙头表现，在 资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具备高纤维自给率、拥有 资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.890 10.42% | | 02314 理文造纸 | | 3.090 6.92% | | 01812 | 眉喝纸业 | 0.810 3.85% | 港股纸业股涨幅进一步扩大，其中，玖龙纸业大涨超10%刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨近7%，晨鸣纸业 涨近4%。 消息上，近期，以玖龙、山鹰、理文、荣成为代表的包装纸企业大规模停机检修，主动收缩产能；博 汇、APP、万国纸业、亚太森博等白卡纸及文化纸厂商集体宣布涨价。这种"停机+涨价"的并存的现 象，凸显不同纸种在成本结构、供需关系和市场预期上的显著 ...

来源：小财米 林平发展主要从事包装用瓦楞纸、箱板纸产品的研发、生产和销售，是一家具备自主研发与创新能力的高新技术企业。经过多年发展，公司已成长为集废纸 回收利用、热电联产、绿色造纸于一体的资源综合利用型企业。 当前，瓦楞纸和箱板纸行业正经历一场深刻的"冷热失衡"：一方面是下游消费需求持续疲软带来的市场寒意，另一方面则是上游产能扩张与行业内部激烈竞 争带来的灼热压力。作为被誉为经济"晴雨表"的包装纸行业，2025年上半年整体利润呈下行趋势，其中瓦楞纸毛利同比减少11.6%，箱板纸毛利同比下降 4.4%，行业深陷供应过剩与需求不振的双重挤压。从宏观视角看，中国造纸工业虽以占全球约三分之一的产量稳居世界第一，但在规模优势背后，瓦楞 纸、箱板纸等品类正面临严峻的结构性挑战与周期性调整。 行业困境：供需失衡与内部竞争加剧 行业的困境首先表现为显著的供需失衡与激烈的内部竞争。近年来，行业产能扩张速度明显快于需求增长，导致整体产能利用率偏低。2025年二季度进入传 统消费淡季后，市场需求不及预期，下游包装企业被迫下调开工率，造纸企业则不得不多次降价以促进出货。这使得市场竞争演变为激烈的价格战，部分产 线的开工负荷率持续处于 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征， 纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动 的增长难以为继，战略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸 一体化"龙头表现，在资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具 备高纤维自给率、拥有资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 中金主要观点如下： 2021年造纸牛市后利润分配向浆端倾斜，造纸产能出清呈现"长尾效应" 中金认为，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资源品、 掌握强定价权，而中游造纸受浆价高企与需求疲软挤压，利润空间持续收窄。由于单吨投资高昂且折旧 压力大，行业在供大于求周期下的出清速度缓慢，规模效应难以转化为价格红利，盈利稳定性较大程度 依赖成本端的有效传导。 标的方面 看好太阳纸业(002078.SZ)、玖龙纸业(02689)和Suzano(SUZ.US)。 风险因素 需求不及预期；新增产能超预期；纸浆价格超预期波动。 战略范式由产能扩张转向产业链一体 中金认为， ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the integration of wood pulp and paper production, leading to an optimized long-term industry structure and upward profitability [3][5] - The report highlights the significant differences in supply and demand dynamics across various segments of the specialty paper market, suggesting a selective approach to identifying strong performers in favorable supply-demand conditions [4] - The wood pulp market is characterized by a cost structure that supports price stability, with needle pulp costs remaining high and supply-demand tightness providing a floor for prices; the report anticipates a gradual stabilization and slight improvement in pulp prices in 2026 [5][9][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that the paper industry has been in a prolonged bottoming phase, with signs of gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the boxboard and corrugated paper segments [5][6] - Cultural paper demand is under pressure due to declining birth rates, with short-term stability in demand for double-glue paper but long-term challenges anticipated [22][25] - The white card paper segment is expected to benefit from trends such as replacing plastic with paper, with strong long-term growth potential despite short-term economic pressures [44][46] Group 3 - The report outlines that the supply structure for cultural paper is becoming more concentrated, with significant new capacity expected to come online in 2026, which may exert pressure on the market [29][40] - The profitability of the industry is expected to stabilize, with a focus on companies that lead in integrated operations and cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [5][6] - The report suggests that the overall paper price stability is stronger than that of bulk paper, with capital expenditures slowing down and export demand contributing to incremental growth [5][6]

今年9月，青岛海关查获746.78吨以"再生纸浆"名义申报入境的货物。该货物为压缩褐色絮状浆包，有 异味，夹杂塑料片、金属等杂质。经专业机构鉴定，其属于国家禁止进口的固体废物。 2021年1月，我国全面禁止进口固体废物（俗称"禁废令"），其中就包括废纸。我国企业进口废纸等再 生纤维造新纸由来已久。"禁废令"的全面实施，要求从进口"纸"转变为进口"浆"，意在避免把污染物输 送到国内。 但目前，国内部分造纸企业在海外通过干法制浆，把废纸"干磨"成"纸浆"再进口，实则进口的还是废 纸。公开资料显示，2021年以来，全国发生多起海关查验出以"再生纸浆"名义进口固体废物并退运的案 例。 业内人士呼吁，应加强对进口再生纸浆监管，提高进口干法纸浆标准，加强技术创新，从而解决造纸原 料供应紧张、原料利用率不高等问题。 干法制浆工艺惹争议 2024年11月，海关总署公布打击"洋垃圾"典型案件。其中，厦门某进出口有限公司向海关申报一批再生 牛卡纸，申报数量为256.76吨。经查验，部分再生牛卡纸存在脏污、破损、霉变等情况。经鉴定，该批 再生牛卡纸中有65.57吨为固体废物。 业内专家表示，再生纸浆之所以会出现"带病"进口问题，缘 ...

ST晨鸣剥离亏损业务，33亿出售融资租赁资产回归造纸主业 在再生资源及造纸行业的发展浪潮中，企业的战略调整与业务布局时刻牵动着市场的神经。近日，ST 晨鸣（000488.SZ）的一项重大决策引起了广泛关注，该公司选择出售融资租赁业务资产，全力回归造 纸主业。 一、交易概况 12月12日，ST晨鸣发布了一则重磅公告。公告显示，公司拟以33.36亿元的对价，将全部融资租赁业务 资产转让给寿光市晟嘉投资有限公司。值得注意的是，寿光市晟嘉投资有限公司是寿光市财政局的全资 子公司。此次交易采用"股权 + 债权"的打包方式，并且分三期进行支付。而交易的标的资产，不仅包括 融资租赁公司100%的股权，还涵盖了与之相关的债权。这一交易的达成，标志着ST晨鸣在业务结构调 整上迈出了重要的一步。 二、剥离背景：融资租赁业务成业绩拖累 亏损严重 近年来，ST晨鸣的融资租赁业务表现不佳，已经成为公司业绩的沉重拖累。在2023 - 2024年期 间，晨鸣融资租赁业务累计亏损超过45亿元。资产减值损失更是高达28亿元，如此巨大的亏损使 得上市公司净利润连续两年为负。这一系列的数据清晰地反映出融资租赁业务的困境，也让公司 管理层不得不重新 ...