Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]

周二（9月23日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.35，涨幅0.04%，开盘价为97.31。 荷兰国际集团发布 的报告称，本发布的核心PCE通胀率（美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标）可能会显得较为温和。 这也意味着对美国经济的压力可能仍会持续增加：通胀会进一步加剧，同时美国就业市场的需求方面也 会面临更大压力。虽然背景形势严峻，但这表明市场对于美联储未来货币政策放松的预期（比美联储本 周发布的最新"点阵图"所暗示的更为积极）是合理的。预计今年还会再有两次降息，2026年也会有两次 降息。 美元指数在布林带中轨上方运行，布林中轨97.0287，上轨97.2376，下轨96.8198。价格自96.2109的"针 刺式"低点迅速V形修复，并在96.8229一线形成二次回踩后的抬升节奏，说明下方买盘承接积极。 ...

在美国经济看似平稳的表面下，一场关于货币政策的激烈较量正在美联储内部悄然上演。上周，美联储终于按下自去年12月以来的首次降息键，但这并非共 识的结果，而是深刻分歧的起点。 失业率维持在4.3%的相对低位，但新增就业岗位增速已明显放缓。更复杂的是，特朗普政府的关税政策同时影响着通胀和就业两个方面。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨指出，消费者支出的稳定态势帮助避免了大规模裁员，但与关税相关的成本上升限制了企业扩大员工规模的能力。这种 相互矛盾的力量使得美联储的决策异常艰难。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里警告称，劳动力市场一旦开始走弱，速度可能会很快，他主张加快降息步伐以防患于未然。与此同时，通胀数据同样令人困 惑。 美联储官员预测，到2025年底，通胀率仍将比目标水平高出1个百分点。在通常情况下，这样的预测会引发加息预警，但这次情况不同。政策制定者逐渐形 成一种新观点：当前通胀上升至少部分源于特朗普政府的关税政策，而这种现象可能是暂时的。 鲍威尔认为，关税对核心PCE通胀率的推动作用约为0.3至0.4个百分点，且这种影响可能是"价格水平的一次性变动"。然而，这种判断存在风险。如果通胀 不像预期那样短暂消退，美联 ...

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation rate may rise by 0.4% or 0.5%, potentially due to higher tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant impact of the July PPI data on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a shift in sentiment away from aggressive rate cuts [1][2] - The July PPI year-on-year rate increased to 3.3%, up from a previous value of 2.4%, and the month-on-month rate rose to 0.9%, compared to a previous value of 0.00% [1] - The PPI data has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September dropping to around 85% from 100% [2] Group 2 - The communication from Federal Reserve officials before and after the PPI data release indicates a strategic effort to maintain policy flexibility and manage market expectations regarding rate cuts [3] - The remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggest a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, with concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs [3] - The market reaction to the PPI data included a halt in the upward trend of U.S. stocks, a significant drop in gold prices, a decline in Bitcoin, and a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, while the dollar index recovered its previous losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle maintains that recent tariffs will significantly impact consumers, predicting that by autumn, consumers will bear approximately two-thirds of the costs associated with these tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - Mericle asserts that if the recent tariffs, such as those imposed in April, follow the same pattern observed in earlier tariffs from February, consumers will shoulder about 67% of the costs by October [1][4]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had already absorbed 22% of the tariff costs, indicating a substantial increase in consumer burden expected in the coming months [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise to 3.2% by the end of the year, up from a June rate of 2.8%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Despite the anticipated consumer burden from tariffs, Mericle believes that the Federal Reserve will likely proceed with the interest rate cuts requested by President Trump, as the primary concern remains the labor market [3][5]. - The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts in each of the remaining three meetings this year, following a lackluster July jobs report and revisions to previous employment data [5].

Economic Conditions - The FOMC meeting minutes describe the current economic situation as resilient yet concerning, with economic activity maintaining a "robust" expansion despite net export fluctuations [2] - The labor market is characterized as "solid," with unemployment rates remaining low, close to the committee's estimates for maximum employment [2] - Potential signs of weakness include persistently low business and consumer confidence indicators, cautious corporate investment, slowing manufacturing activity, and pressures on low-income households [2] Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for the Federal Reserve, with inflation rates still "slightly above" the long-term target of 2% [3] - The core PCE inflation rate was reported at 2.6% in May, indicating limited progress [3] - The committee acknowledges an "uneven" process in returning inflation to target, with service inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, complicating the inflation outlook [3] Tariff Impact - The discussion on tariffs highlights them as a key source of uncertainty affecting monetary policy decisions, with expectations of upward pressure on prices [4] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and duration of tariff impacts [4] - Concerns exist that tariffs may have a "more lasting" effect on inflation and could influence inflation expectations, potentially leading to a spiral of rising prices and wages [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The minutes reveal internal divisions within the committee regarding future monetary policy, particularly on whether to lower interest rates this year [5] - A majority believe that some degree of rate cuts may be appropriate, citing temporary tariff impacts and anchored inflation expectations [5] - Conversely, some members argue against rate cuts due to persistent inflation and significant upward risks [5][6] Neutral Rate Discussion - Comments regarding the current federal funds rate being close to neutral suggest that any necessary rate cuts may not need to be as substantial as previously anticipated [7] - This indicates that the current policy may not be as restrictive as it appears, adding complexity to future policy paths [7] Financial Market Dynamics - The minutes reflect a positive market response to easing trade tensions, with stock prices rising and credit spreads narrowing, but also highlight concerns over fiscal outlooks [8] - Discussions on liquidity reveal challenges posed by the debt ceiling and its impact on the Treasury General Account (TGA) [8] Credit Conditions - Credit conditions show a mixed picture, with large firms and high-credit borrowers having better access to credit, while small businesses and low-credit borrowers face tighter conditions [9] - Rising student loan delinquency rates post-moratorium are a significant concern, potentially impacting broader financial stability and consumer spending [9] Conclusion - The FOMC minutes illustrate a complex economic landscape characterized by robust growth and labor markets alongside persistent high inflation and significant policy uncertainty [10] - The committee's decision to maintain the status quo emphasizes a data-dependent and cautious approach, with key risks including tariffs, fiscal conditions, and credit quality [10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve projects the core PCE inflation rate to be 3.1% in 2025, up from an expected 2.8% in March [1] Summary by Category - **Inflation Projections** - The core PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise to 3.1% by 2025 [1] - The March forecast for the same inflation rate is set at 2.8% [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to December, previously anticipated for July [1] - The economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been raised by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, while the probability of a recession within the next 12 months has been lowered to 35% [1] - The peak path for core PCE inflation has been adjusted down to 3.6%, from a previous estimate of 3.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Economists expect the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), to peak at 3.2% by the end of 2025, which is higher than the 2.7% estimate from the March survey [1] Summary by Category - Inflation Expectations - The PCE is projected to reach a peak of 3.2% by the end of 2025 [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, excluding food and energy, is expected to reach 3.3% [1]