随着关税拖累的减少、减税措施的实施以及金融条件的宽松，预计2026年美国经济增长将重新加速至2%-2.5%的区间，失业率也将稳定在略高于9月4.44%的 水平。 通胀前景与降息路径 高盛认为，美联储进一步降息的上行风险有限，这主要基于对近期通胀数据的乐观解读。 尽管9月就业报告的发布遭遇延误，但这并未改变高盛对美联储货币政策路径的核心判断。高盛的基础预测显示， 在经历了12月的降息后，FOMC可能会在 2026年1月暂停行动，随后在3月和6月分别再进行两次降息。 首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的报告中指出，美 联储在12月9日至10日的议息会议上降息25个基点已成定局 ，且未来的宽松步伐将在2026年延续，最终将 联邦基金利率推低至3%-3.25%的终端水平。 这一预测得到了美联储内部关键人物立场的支撑。据高盛报告，纽约联储主席Williams上周五明确表示，由于劳动力市场降温导致就业下行风险增加，而通胀 上行风险有所减弱，近期需要进行"进一步调整"。 Jan Hatzius认为，这一观点不仅与美联储主席Powell的立场一致——Powell在9月点阵图中几乎肯定写下了三次降息的预测——也代表了联邦 ...

美联储10月会议纪要显示，会议期间获取的信息显示，实际GDP增速在今年上半年有所放缓。受联邦政 府停摆影响，劳动力市场信息有限；然而现有指标均表明劳动力市场持续逐步降温，未见任何急剧恶化 迹象。消费者价格通胀自年初以来上升，且仍保持较高水平。根据消费者价格指数数据测算，9月份以 个人消费支出价格指数12个月变动衡量的整体通胀率预估为2.8%。剔除能源、多数食品价格波动的核 心PCE通胀率同期同样预估为2.8%。这些数据意味着整体PCE通胀率较一年前上升0.5个百分点，而核心 PCE通胀率与去年同期持平。（格隆汇） ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING suggests that the core PCE inflation rate, a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, may appear relatively mild, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. economy with increasing inflation and greater strain on the job market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.04% from an opening price of 97.31 [1] - The core PCE inflation rate is expected to show a mild appearance, which may lead to sustained economic pressures [1] - The market's expectations for future monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve are considered reasonable, with predictions of two more rate cuts this year and two additional cuts in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The dollar index is operating above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the middle band at 97.0287, the upper band at 97.2376, and the lower band at 96.8198 [1] - The price has quickly recovered from a "spike" low of 96.2109, forming a second bounce at around 96.8229, indicating strong buying support below [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly following its first interest rate cut since December of the previous year, which has sparked significant debate among its members [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is split into two camps: one led by the White House economic advisor, advocating for substantial rate cuts to protect the labor market, and the other, led by several regional Fed presidents, cautious about further cuts due to inflation concerns [3]. - The economic landscape has fundamentally changed under the Trump administration, with the neutral interest rate potentially lowered to around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points below the current rate [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but the growth rate of new job creation has noticeably slowed [4]. - Tariff policies from the Trump administration are complicating the economic situation by affecting both inflation and employment [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials predict that by the end of 2025, inflation will still be 1 percentage point above the target level, which typically would trigger warnings for rate hikes, but the current context is different [4]. - The impact of tariffs on core PCE inflation is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, with the possibility that this effect may be a one-time price level change [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Fed's internal debate will significantly influence not only the U.S. economy but also global market trends, as the Fed must balance employment protection with inflation control amid rising uncertainties [5].

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation rate may rise by 0.4% or 0.5%, potentially due to higher tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant impact of the July PPI data on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a shift in sentiment away from aggressive rate cuts [1][2] - The July PPI year-on-year rate increased to 3.3%, up from a previous value of 2.4%, and the month-on-month rate rose to 0.9%, compared to a previous value of 0.00% [1] - The PPI data has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September dropping to around 85% from 100% [2] Group 2 - The communication from Federal Reserve officials before and after the PPI data release indicates a strategic effort to maintain policy flexibility and manage market expectations regarding rate cuts [3] - The remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggest a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, with concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs [3] - The market reaction to the PPI data included a halt in the upward trend of U.S. stocks, a significant drop in gold prices, a decline in Bitcoin, and a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, while the dollar index recovered its previous losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle maintains that recent tariffs will significantly impact consumers, predicting that by autumn, consumers will bear approximately two-thirds of the costs associated with these tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - Mericle asserts that if the recent tariffs, such as those imposed in April, follow the same pattern observed in earlier tariffs from February, consumers will shoulder about 67% of the costs by October [1][4]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had already absorbed 22% of the tariff costs, indicating a substantial increase in consumer burden expected in the coming months [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise to 3.2% by the end of the year, up from a June rate of 2.8%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Despite the anticipated consumer burden from tariffs, Mericle believes that the Federal Reserve will likely proceed with the interest rate cuts requested by President Trump, as the primary concern remains the labor market [3][5]. - The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts in each of the remaining three meetings this year, following a lackluster July jobs report and revisions to previous employment data [5].

Economic Conditions - The FOMC meeting minutes describe the current economic situation as resilient yet concerning, with economic activity maintaining a "robust" expansion despite net export fluctuations [2] - The labor market is characterized as "solid," with unemployment rates remaining low, close to the committee's estimates for maximum employment [2] - Potential signs of weakness include persistently low business and consumer confidence indicators, cautious corporate investment, slowing manufacturing activity, and pressures on low-income households [2] Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for the Federal Reserve, with inflation rates still "slightly above" the long-term target of 2% [3] - The core PCE inflation rate was reported at 2.6% in May, indicating limited progress [3] - The committee acknowledges an "uneven" process in returning inflation to target, with service inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, complicating the inflation outlook [3] Tariff Impact - The discussion on tariffs highlights them as a key source of uncertainty affecting monetary policy decisions, with expectations of upward pressure on prices [4] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and duration of tariff impacts [4] - Concerns exist that tariffs may have a "more lasting" effect on inflation and could influence inflation expectations, potentially leading to a spiral of rising prices and wages [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The minutes reveal internal divisions within the committee regarding future monetary policy, particularly on whether to lower interest rates this year [5] - A majority believe that some degree of rate cuts may be appropriate, citing temporary tariff impacts and anchored inflation expectations [5] - Conversely, some members argue against rate cuts due to persistent inflation and significant upward risks [5][6] Neutral Rate Discussion - Comments regarding the current federal funds rate being close to neutral suggest that any necessary rate cuts may not need to be as substantial as previously anticipated [7] - This indicates that the current policy may not be as restrictive as it appears, adding complexity to future policy paths [7] Financial Market Dynamics - The minutes reflect a positive market response to easing trade tensions, with stock prices rising and credit spreads narrowing, but also highlight concerns over fiscal outlooks [8] - Discussions on liquidity reveal challenges posed by the debt ceiling and its impact on the Treasury General Account (TGA) [8] Credit Conditions - Credit conditions show a mixed picture, with large firms and high-credit borrowers having better access to credit, while small businesses and low-credit borrowers face tighter conditions [9] - Rising student loan delinquency rates post-moratorium are a significant concern, potentially impacting broader financial stability and consumer spending [9] Conclusion - The FOMC minutes illustrate a complex economic landscape characterized by robust growth and labor markets alongside persistent high inflation and significant policy uncertainty [10] - The committee's decision to maintain the status quo emphasizes a data-dependent and cautious approach, with key risks including tariffs, fiscal conditions, and credit quality [10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve projects the core PCE inflation rate to be 3.1% in 2025, up from an expected 2.8% in March [1] Summary by Category - **Inflation Projections** - The core PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise to 3.1% by 2025 [1] - The March forecast for the same inflation rate is set at 2.8% [1]