Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2511 opened at 3375 yuan/ton, closed at 3373 yuan/ton, with a high of 3395 yuan/ton, a low of 3364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.20%, and a trading volume of 182,100 lots; BU2512 opened at 3331 yuan/ton, closed at 3320 yuan/ton, with a high of 3340 yuan/ton, a low of 3310 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.31%, and a trading volume of 55,800 lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China markets declined, while those in other regions remained stable. The continuous decline of crude oil and asphalt futures was negative for asphalt spot prices [6] - Supply: The expected conversion of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical to produce residual oil and the production cut plans of some refineries might reduce supply, but the asphalt conversion plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical were implemented, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical, which had already converted, continued to operate stably. It was expected that the operating load rate of asphalt plants would continue to rise [6] - Demand: The weather in the northern and central markets was favorable, and driven by project rush - work, demand had certain resilience, while the demand in the southern region was affected by typhoon weather. Overall, demand remained stable [6] - Market Outlook: The asphalt market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, operating in a volatile and weak manner, and a bearish approach was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The decline of asphalt futures at night led to some spot - futures traders pricing and selling asphalt contracts, and the decline of the futures market was negative for the spot market sentiment, resulting in a decline in the low - end price of the South China market [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3480 - 3720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Qilu Petrochemical continued to produce asphalt, and the reduction of the settlement price led to a decline in the high - end price of the Shandong market. Market demand was relatively stable, but with abundant resource supply, the selling side was relatively active, and the prices of some local refinery brand asphalts were reduced [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided data on asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening price of BU2511 was 3410 yuan/ton, closing at 3393 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29% and a trading volume of 204,300 lots. The opening price of BU2512 was 3377 yuan/ton, closing at 3355 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12% and a trading volume of 47,200 lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt price in the North China market increased slightly, while that in Shandong decreased. Prices in other regions remained stable. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the spot market, and prices are generally stable [6] - Supply: Jinling Petrochemical may reduce asphalt production, and Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong switched to producing residual oil. However, Zhongyou Qinhuangdao may resume asphalt production in mid - September, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Henan Fengli will gradually switch to asphalt production. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to continue to rise [6] - Demand: Road projects in the northern region are in a concentrated rush - construction period, and asphalt demand is improving steadily. In the southern region, due to the long construction period, it has not yet entered the rush - construction stage, and asphalt demand is mainly released steadily with limited overall growth [6] Group 5: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3480 - 3540 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although market demand is stable with no increase, the contracts of local futures - spot traders have been mostly purchased by local traders, and traders are more inclined to hold up prices [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3480 - 3820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although international oil prices and asphalt futures rebounded during the session, the boost to the spot market was limited. With sufficient resource supply, some traders were actively selling, leading to a decline in prices [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][15]

Supply Side - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points week-on-week to 28.1%, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively low level compared to recent years [1] - Domestic asphalt production in September is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons month-on-month, representing an 11.3% increase, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, or 34.1% [1] Demand Side - The operating rates in most downstream industries for asphalt decreased last week, with road asphalt operating rate dropping by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5%, reaching the lowest level in recent years, constrained by funding and adverse weather conditions in some regions [1] - National shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Inventory - Asphalt refinery inventory decreased compared to last week but is still at the lowest level for the same period in recent years [1] Industry Dynamics - Chevron has been allowed to resume oil extraction in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount for China to purchase asphalt raw materials [1] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical and other facilities plan to switch to asphalt production, with improved weather in the south supporting demand, while heavy rainfall in some northern regions and funding constraints lead to cautious market sentiment [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, gradually lifting the secondary production limit of 1.65 million barrels per day, with recent significant declines in crude oil futures prices weakening cost support for asphalt [1] Market Recommendation - Given the weak supply and demand for asphalt, and the futures price having dropped to the lower end of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to temporarily take profits and exit short positions [1] Futures Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2511 rose by 0.88% to 3,450 yuan/ton, remaining above the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,421 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,457 yuan/ton, while open interest increased by 2,860 to 244,770 contracts [1] - In terms of basis, the mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,530 yuan/ton, while the basis for asphalt contract 11 has dropped to 80 yuan/ton, remaining at a neutral to high level [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is still sensitive to upside risks caused by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the - money options [2] - The fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is marginally relieved, with different performance in variety spreads [3] - The supply and demand of asphalt are expected to tighten marginally, with the price range - bound and the crack spread expected to gradually recover [4] - The overseas LPG market is stable, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market is in a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil futures fluctuated, and the SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to the impact of position transfer. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is trending to ease, but short - term uncertainties remain. The market is sensitive to upside risks from geopolitical factors, and it is advisable to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the money options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, with weak ship - bunkering and power - generation demands. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah are high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continues to decline. The approval of the quota for converting low - sulfur fuel oil to refined oil by main refineries marginally relieves the supply pressure, and LU is boosted. FU is weaker than LU but stronger than SC, and the FU crack spread strengthens [3] Asphalt - The supply and demand of asphalt have tightened slightly as expected. The diversion effect of Venezuelan oil imports by the US on North Asian resources may gradually appear, and the cumulative output of asphalt by Sinopec is declining year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to rise. The August shipment volume of sample refineries increased 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive. The BU price follows SC but shows certain resistance to decline. The price of the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread is expected to gradually recover [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market is stable, with increased exports but supported by East Asian procurement demand. The domestic imports and refinery out - put are rising, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is continuously weakening, and the sustainability of the high operating rate needs attention. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations, with strong pressure at the top due to high warehouse receipts, and the high - basis pattern can continue, mainly in low - level shock [5]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The supply - demand situation of asphalt has deteriorated, and a unilateral short - selling approach is recommended [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3501 yuan/ton, closing at 3472 yuan/ton, with a high of 3502 yuan/ton, a low of 3465 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%, and a trading volume of 153,800 lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3449 yuan/ton, closing at 3430 yuan/ton, with a high of 3459 yuan/ton, a low of 3425 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.49%, and a trading volume of 35,600 lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market increased, while other regions remained stable. The reduction in asphalt spot circulation in some markets supported local prices. Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will rise significantly. Due to events like the World Games and the military parade, local project construction will be restricted, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt will be limited [6] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous workday. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate at low levels, and terminal demand was weak. The spot market was cautious and wait - and - see, with stable quotes from major refineries and traders, and mainly on - demand procurement [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous workday. Affected by typhoon weather, there was rainfall in some areas, and the rigid demand for asphalt remained weak. Social inventory quotes were stable after a decline, with sufficient market supply and a weak overall sentiment [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][16][19]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Reported Industry: Asphalt 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - The supply - demand situation of asphalt has deteriorated, and a unilateral short - selling approach is recommended [6] 4. Summary by Section 4.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3491 yuan/ton, closing at 3503 yuan/ton, with a high of 3504 yuan/ton, a low of 3480 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 12.32 million lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3444 yuan/ton, closing at 3460 yuan/ton, with a high of 3460 yuan/ton, a low of 3438 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, and a trading volume of 2.87 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market increased, while those in the East and South China markets decreased, and other regions remained stable. Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, leading to a significant increase in the average operating load rate of asphalt plants. However, events like the World Games and military parades will limit project construction in some areas, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt remains limited [6] 4.2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to trade in a low - level range, and the demand in the spot market did not improve, with the market sentiment being cautious and wait - and - see. Some refineries lowered their asphalt prices, but the mainstream transaction range remained stable [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The shipping price in Jieyang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, reducing the storage cost of Jieyang's shipped asphalt in Foshan. Additionally, the simultaneous quotation and sales of Jingbo Hainan's shipping orders and warehouse stocks dampened market sentiment, causing some traders to lower their bulk sales prices and driving down the market price in South China [7] 4.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18][22]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2510 opened at 3507 yuan/ton, closed at 3506 yuan/ton, with a high of 3516 yuan/ton, a low of 3491 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%, and a trading volume of 12.03 million lots; BU2511 opened at 3452 yuan/ton, closed at 3466 yuan/ton, with a high of 3474 yuan/ton, a low of 3446 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 2.14 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets declined, while other regions remained stable. Rigid demand for asphalt was weak, which was negative for spot prices [6] - Supply and Demand: Some refineries planned to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants would increase significantly. Demand improvement was limited due to events restricting project construction. Overall, asphalt supply and demand deteriorated, and a short-selling strategy was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Terminal demand remained weak, and some traders lowered their quotes [7] - South China Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3540 - 3550 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. Maoming Petrochemical adjusted its prices, and a new contract price from Gaofu also decreased, which was negative for market sentiment [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures Included: Asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [8][13][16][19] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt production industry is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with operating load rates remaining low [1] Group 1: Supply Side - Asphalt production enterprises are operating at low load rates [1] - The cost side is influenced by fluctuating crude oil prices, which affect the central price of asphalt [1] Group 2: Demand Side - High temperatures and rainfall are impacting road construction in certain regions, leading to slow progress on terminal projects and overall weak asphalt demand [1] - Downstream players and traders are adopting a cautious strategy in response to the low demand [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - Short-term trading is recommended as the primary operational strategy in the current market environment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories are continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3,528 - 3,596 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Strengthening crude oil supports prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2509 in the 3,528 - 3,596 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract data for asphalt are presented, including price changes, inventory changes, and开工率 changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Charts show the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China over the years [20] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Mainly presents the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratio trends, as well as the cracking spread trends of crude oil [25][27][30] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The chart shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt over the years [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation [46][48][51] - **Inventory Analysis**: Involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [66][70][73] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108]