格隆汇2月8日丨Investinglive分析师Adam Button表示，本周黄金未能站稳5000美元关口，这无疑令人失 望，但若对比白银的表现，就能发现黄金仍相对稳定。不过，无法忽视的是，剧烈的波动性确实带来不 安感。未来一周，对黄金最有利的情况可能是波动性下降，即使这可能意味着价格将小幅走低。但遗憾 的是，黄金的波动性可能不会迅速消退。它往往会在持续一段时间后才缓慢平复。未来几天市场将关注 伊朗和乌克兰局势的潜在催化作用，周三还将迎来最新的非农就业报告。对多头而言，美元指数回落或 许能带来一些鼓舞，可能成为上行催化剂。值得注意的是，黄金在一系列保证金上调冲击下依然保持韧 性，这确实反映出市场的内在买盘支撑。最终，若金价能在4500-5000美元区间盘整数周（或数月）， 将是积极信号。不利因素在于，黄金传统的季节性上涨阶段现已接近尾声。 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场总在讲述不同的故事 。 有些故事关乎增长，有些故事关乎恐惧。狂欢戛然而止，困惑与恐慌取而代之。这一次，故事的主角是黄金和白银。金价创下近四十年来最大的 单日跌幅，白银则一度将年内惊人的涨幅全部归还。但这真的仅仅关于黄金和白银吗？ 或许，我们更应该将它视为一堂公开课：当一种资产的价格，主要由一个激动人心却难以证伪的宏大叙事所驱动时，它的根基究竟是什么？当所 有人都拥挤在同一条船上，任何一点风向的改变，又会引发怎样的连锁反应？ 本文无意预测金银市场的下一站。我们更想借这次剧烈的波动，与你一同审视那些在狂热中容易被忽略的本质：资产的内在基因有何不同？推动 价格的力量来自哪里？以及最重要的——作为投资者，当市场的故事突然换档，我们该如何自处，才能避免成为纯粹的情绪俘虏？ 剥开具体数字的表象，我们将会走过三个阶段：看清驱动力的转换，理解不同资产的核心逻辑，最终回归到个人决策的纪律与静气。让我们开 始。 导火索背后：一次迟到的压力测试 01 这次暴跌，表面上看是因为美联储新主席的提名消息。但实际上，这是一次迟到的压力测试。 要理解这点，得回到推动之前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant "flash crash" on January 30, with intraday declines reaching 36%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1980. This sudden decline caught many new investors off guard, despite the previous reasonable price increases driven by industrial and financial demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver's price movements are influenced by both industrial and financial demand, with a notable supply-demand gap supporting recent price increases. The demand for silver in the renewable energy and technology sectors is expected to double by 2024 compared to 2021, accounting for 29% of global industrial demand [1]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts starting in 2025, along with a weakening dollar, are expected to lower the holding costs of silver, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical risks [1]. - Compared to gold, silver is viewed as a more cost-effective hedging tool, attracting significant inflows into futures markets and leading to increased trading volumes and positions in related ETFs [1]. Group 2: Price Volatility - Historical data indicates that silver prices are more volatile than gold, primarily due to its stronger commodity attributes and broader industrial demand. While silver's monetary properties have diminished, its price tends to rise during systemic risks and high inflation, only to revert to commodity-driven dynamics once the crisis subsides [2]. - The financial characteristics of silver contribute to its price elasticity, attracting short-term speculators and momentum traders, which can lead to rapid price fluctuations driven by speculative activities [2]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Mechanisms - Liquidity plays a crucial role in silver price movements. If large buy orders are placed in the futures market while physical silver is hoarded, a lack of available supply for delivery can force shorts to cover at inflated prices as contracts approach expiration [4]. - As of January 29, the ratio of futures to physical silver contracts was 8.75, significantly higher than historical levels, indicating a potential for "short squeeze" scenarios that could lead to rapid price increases [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by 0.7% in early Asian trading, reaching $5,046.58 per ounce amid concerns over tariffs [1] - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imports from South Korea, raising them from 15% to 25% on cars, pharmaceuticals, and timber due to the lack of legislative approval for a trade agreement [1] - Senior market analyst Nikos Tzabouras noted that ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions continue to attract safe-haven inflows into gold [1] Group 2 - The same analyst cautioned that gold remains susceptible to profit-taking and volatility, especially with increased speculative positions [1]

张晋藩 闫静怡 "家天下"是古代经济管理法"礼法化表达"的逻辑起点。"普天之下，莫非王土"，最高统治者合法拥有天 下资源，并通过分配土地收取田租、口赋，以及获取专卖利润等"间接占有"形式实现，治理这些事务的 古代经济管理法便由此获得了制定实施的正当性——这也是其多以诏、敕等文书颁布的原因。在"家天 下"之外，古代统治者对逐利合法性的话语建构方式还有很多。比如重大变法改制之前便常有"合法化论 述"的铺垫，为后续改革争取空间。 纵观历代经济管理法的托名情况，它们以"家天下"为合法性基础，不仅强调统治者财利获取的目的完全 出于民生、军事需要，更添一重"善政治国"的正向伦理色彩。然而古代经济管理法"自带"的"义利"冲 突，使话语与规则之间的名实张力更加明显。变法时越强调"民不加赋而国用饶足"，后期越容易陷 入"黄宗羲定律"。在统治危机到来，特别是王朝末路时，以托名方式勉强捏合的经济管理秩序往往迅速 颓坏乃至加剧危机，甚或成为改朝换代的直接导火索。 内容上的治事性：聚焦于解决特定类别、地域、时间范围内的具体经济问题 古代经济管理法内容上的治事性，是指它聚焦于解决特定类别、地域、时间范围内的具体经济问题。古 代经济管理法 ...

Core Insights - The memo by Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of rational decision-making in investment, focusing on aligning risk exposure with one's financial situation and goals [1][4][5] Group 1: Risk Attitude - The memo introduces a two-dimensional matrix distinguishing between "risk tolerance" and "risk willingness," categorizing investors into four types: "fully utilized," "defensive," "protective," and "immature" [2][15][16] - The board members of the pension fund prioritize the ability to meet pension obligations over outperforming peers, indicating a rational approach to risk management [3][29][30] - The board acknowledges that risk is not merely price volatility but the probability of permanent loss, reinforcing the need for a long-term perspective in investment [4][26][42] Group 2: Setting Goals - The pension fund board ranks "outperforming peers" as the least important goal, emphasizing the necessity of ensuring pension payments and minimizing costs to the sponsoring entity [29][30][31] - The board's focus is on constructing a portfolio that increases the probability of success across various scenarios, rather than merely achieving relative performance [32][33] Group 3: Performance Evaluation - The board considers achieving actuarial return assumptions as the most critical performance metric, with relative performance against benchmarks being secondary [55][56] - The discussion highlights the challenge of evaluating investment performance over short time frames, advocating for longer evaluation periods that encompass both bull and bear markets [69][70] - The board recognizes the importance of assessing personnel turnover rates as a potential indicator of underlying issues within the investment management process [72][75]

Core Viewpoint - The memo by Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance and willingness in investment decision-making, highlighting that the ultimate goal is to meet specific investment objectives rather than outperforming peers [4][8]. Group 1: Attitude Towards Risk - The memo introduces a two-dimensional matrix categorizing risk tolerance and willingness, which helps in understanding the financial capacity and psychological readiness to take risks [5][20]. - The four quadrants of the matrix are defined as follows: "Fully Utilized" for high capacity and willingness, "Defensive" for high capacity but low willingness, "Protective" for low capacity and willingness, and "Immature" for low capacity but high willingness [27][29]. - The board's risk willingness is moderate, but their financial capacity is above average, allowing them to avoid excessive volatility while still achieving reasonable returns [29][30]. Group 2: Setting Investment Goals - The board prioritizes investment goals, placing "outperforming peers" at the bottom, indicating a focus on fulfilling pension obligations rather than relative performance [46][48]. - The primary goal for a pension plan is to ensure the payment of pensions while minimizing costs to the sponsor, rather than competing with peers [49][50]. - The memo stresses that success is defined by the ability to meet pension commitments, regardless of the performance of peers [51][52]. Group 3: Volatility and Performance Measurement - The board ranks the Sharpe ratio last among performance metrics, emphasizing the importance of ensuring pension payment capabilities over maintaining stable contributions [61][62]. - The memo argues that investors often overemphasize volatility as a risk measure, suggesting that the focus should be on the risk of permanent loss instead [64][65]. - The discussion highlights that the perception of risk is influenced by external factors, and that volatility may not be a significant concern for long-term investors [71][72]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Tactics - The board agrees that investment portfolios should be designed to adapt to various environments rather than relying on market timing [78]. - A majority of members are open to using leverage within a range of 15% to 20%, which is deemed reasonable given the fund's financial stability [80][81]. - The board supports allocating a portion of the portfolio to illiquid assets, provided that pension payments and expected cash needs are met [83]. Group 5: Performance Evaluation - The most important performance metric identified is achieving the actuarial return assumption, followed by outperforming the policy benchmark [93][94]. - The memo discusses the challenges of evaluating investment performance, emphasizing the need for relative rather than absolute benchmarks in the short term [100][101]. - It concludes that performance evaluation should cover a complete market cycle to accurately assess investment capabilities [115][116].

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of "big players closing funds" in China's investment circle reflects a complex market sentiment, highlighting the need for investors to reassess risk, evaluate opportunities, and maintain rationality in uncertain times [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On October 29, Ningquan Asset announced a suspension of new subscriptions for its products, followed by Ruiyuan Fund's similar announcement two days later, indicating a trend among prominent fund managers to exercise restraint [2]. - This trend has sparked speculation regarding its implications for market liquidity and valuation levels, as well as the managers' self-awareness regarding their strategies and cognitive boundaries [3]. Group 2: Decision-Making Framework - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own risk tolerance and willingness, categorizing investors into four types based on their financial capacity and risk appetite [5][6]. - Rational investors align their risk exposure with their circumstances, focusing on achieving their own goals rather than merely outperforming peers [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - The board members of the pension fund prioritize fulfilling pension payment commitments over short-term performance rankings, demonstrating a long-term focus on stability rather than relative performance [6][44]. - Marks argues that true success in investment is not about outperforming others but ensuring the ability to meet obligations, particularly in the context of pension funds [46][50]. Group 4: Risk Assessment - The discussion highlights that risk should not be equated with price volatility but rather with the probability of permanent loss, urging investors to differentiate between the two [8][60]. - The board's preference for normal market fluctuations over reliance on opaque strategies for excess returns indicates a mature understanding of risk management [38][41]. Group 5: Performance Evaluation - The pension fund board values achieving actuarial return assumptions as the primary performance metric, with relative performance against peers considered secondary [78][80]. - The importance of a comprehensive evaluation period that includes both favorable and unfavorable market conditions is emphasized, as it allows for a clearer assessment of investment capabilities [101][102].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has adopted a more dovish stance amid a deteriorating job market, while remaining highly sensitive to inflation fluctuations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ongoing price pressures from tariffs and immigration policies are complicating the anti-inflation trend [1] - There is a potential risk of increased volatility if inflation unexpectedly rises, given that stock and corporate credit valuations are perceived to be high [1]

Group 1: Market Microstructure and Algorithmic Trading - Algorithmic trading is closely linked to market microstructure, which serves as the core logic for trading strategies and is influenced by the proliferation of algorithmic trading[1] - Key dimensions of market microstructure include liquidity, volatility, investor structure, and regulatory frameworks[2][5] Group 2: Liquidity Metrics - Liquidity is a critical factor affecting trading costs and is assessed through metrics such as TwSpread (relative spread), QuoteSize (market depth), and AccTurnover (transaction amount)[2][12] - TwSpread measures the relative price difference, with lower values indicating better liquidity and lower trading costs[14] - QuoteSize reflects the average number of buy and sell orders in the order book, with larger sizes indicating stronger liquidity[23] Group 3: Volatility Metrics - Volatility is an important parameter in algorithmic trading strategy design, assessed through TickPeriod (the average time between price changes) and ValidVolatility (effective price fluctuation)[3][39] - A smaller TickPeriod indicates higher volatility, while ValidVolatility increases with greater trading activity and price fluctuations[43][51] Group 4: Investor Structure - The structure of investors significantly impacts market microstructure, with metrics like AucVolRatioOpen and AucVolRatioClose indicating the proportion of trading volume during opening and closing auctions[4][62] - Higher auction volume ratios suggest greater participation from institutional investors, which can amplify market impacts during significant events[64] Group 5: Regulatory Impact - Regulatory frameworks play a crucial role in shaping market microstructure and must be accurately implemented in algorithmic trading systems[5][68] - Recent regulations have aimed to reduce transaction costs, such as the reduction of trading fees by 30% to 50% in 2023, which positively affects market activity[69]