香港《亚洲周刊》最新一期文章，原题：美联储与财政部的分分合合 二战后，美联储脱离美国财政部 的行政控制，但如今在美债压力下，两者再成权力角斗焦点。 战后，决策者一度担心经济再度陷入大萧条，但实际上更大的挑战来自通胀。1946年至1947年间，美国 消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨17.6%。1950年物价进一步上扬。到1951年初，CPI年化通胀率高达21%， 若再被迫承接政府新发债务，势必引发货币过度发行。 1951年2月，美联储正式通知财政部将不再维持原有利率政策。由于财政部需要进行债务展期与新发 债，迫切需要化解不确定性。最终，双方达成妥协，美联储短期内仍会支持五年期国债价格，但之后市 场将回归自由调节。3月4日，双方宣布已"在债务管理与货币政策上达成完全协议"，此协议开启了政府 证券市场的自由化，使利率逐步由市场决定；亦促使美联储将政策焦点转向银行准备金与货币供给的管 理，并以维持美元购买力为目标。最重要的是，该协议确立了中央银行独立于财政政策与政治压力的原 则。 今天的美国看似在走回头路，意图将美联储与总统行政权重新整合，而此举很可能是为了应对日益严峻 的地缘政治形势。事实上，米兰早前便提出一个被称为" ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi suggests that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen [1] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it may lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [1] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - The potential for high-level bilateral coordination to address market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [1] - Citi analysts believe that there will be a persistent tendency for the dollar to weaken and the yen to strengthen from a monetary policy perspective [1] Group 3: Yen Performance Context - This expectation contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen, which has been the worst-performing major currency over the past three months due to political uncertainty and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could drive a weaker dollar and a stronger yen [1][2] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it could lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [2] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - To stabilize the market, the US may pressure Japan to extend the duration of its US Treasury holdings when managing its foreign exchange reserves [2] - This high-level bilateral coordination to address potential market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [2] - From a monetary policy perspective, there is an expected ongoing trend of a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, which contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen due to political uncertainties and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]

Group 1 - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a confirmation hearing for Stephen Milan, the current Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to become a Federal Reserve Governor on September 4 at 10 AM local time [1] - The Republican-led Senate is expected to expedite Milan's confirmation process before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting in September, barring any procedural hurdles or unexpected opposition [2] - Milan's nomination is a priority for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, with hopes for approval before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Milan previously passed a Senate confirmation vote for his current position with a party-line vote of 53 in favor and 46 against, without any Republican opposition [2] - Despite lacking the votes to block his nomination, Milan is anticipated to face tough questioning from senators regarding recent actions by President Trump, including the firing of Fed Governor Cook and pressure to lower interest rates [3] - If confirmed before the Fed's September meeting, Milan's presence could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts, as he may align with other governors to advocate for more aggressive rate reductions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a significant move to reshape the Fed's leadership and align it more closely with his economic agenda, particularly in advocating for lower interest rates and financial deregulation [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Nomination Announcement - Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board [2][3]. Background of Stephen Miran - Miran is praised by Trump for his unparalleled expertise in economics and has been a close advisor since Trump's second term began [3]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a lower long-term value of the dollar and has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Views on Federal Reserve - Miran has criticized the Fed's flexible inflation targets and warned that failure to manage inflation could lead to legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act or the dismissal of board members by future presidents [6]. - He has also pointed out that the Fed's policies have created market expectations for aggressive easing in response to economic downturns [7]. Proposed Reforms - Miran has co-authored a report suggesting radical reforms for the Federal Reserve, including: - Granting voting rights to all Fed officials at every FOMC meeting [8]. - Allowing state governors to control local oversight committees for selecting regional Fed presidents [9]. - Permitting the White House to dismiss Fed officials at any time [10]. - Prohibiting board members from taking executive branch positions for four years after their term [11]. - Requiring Congress to allocate the Fed's operating budget [12]. Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [13][14]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [14]. Implications of the Nomination - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [16]. - His nomination is seen as the beginning of Trump's long-term plan to reshape the Fed, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the FOMC [17].

此外，参议院目前正处于休会期，有分析指出参议院不太可能在9月复会前完成这一程序。不仅如此，民主党人近期一直试图放慢特朗普政府提名人选的批 准进度，而下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于9月16日至17日举行，米兰能否赶得上下一次FOMC会议仍是未知数。 特朗普补充道："米兰在我的第一任期内就表现出色，并从我第二任期开始就一直与我共事，他在经济学领域的专业知识无与伦比——他将出色地完成这项 工作。祝贺你，斯蒂芬！" 美国总统特朗普与白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰 据路透社、美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）消息，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台上宣布正式提名其重要经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran）出任美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）理事会成员，以接替提前卸任的阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）。 上周，库格勒突然宣布将辞职并提前离开理事会，且并未说明其离任的缘由。据悉，库格勒由美国前总统拜登提名，自2023年9月13日以来一直担任美联储 理事，其任期原本将于2026年1月31日结束。预计此次得到特朗普提名的斯蒂芬·米兰将接替库格勒完成其剩下的任期。 目前，美联储理事 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran is seen as the beginning of a long-term plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the authority of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1][15]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Trump officially nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat left by Adriana Kugler's resignation, praising Miran's unparalleled expertise in economics [3]. - Miran's nomination is viewed as a significant step in Trump's efforts to reform the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term [4][15]. Group 2: Miran's Policy Views - Miran has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and advocates for radical reforms, including allowing all Federal Reserve officials to vote at every meeting and granting the White House the power to dismiss central bank officials at any time [4][7]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," which argues for measures to lower the long-term value of the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors believing it could be beneficial for the market, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [12]. - Analysts generally agree that Miran's nomination is unlikely to change expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [13][14]. Group 4: Implications for the Federal Reserve - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions, especially given the high likelihood of a rate cut in September [14]. - His appointment is interpreted as a significant symbolic move, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating a potential shift in the operational and policy discourse of the Federal Reserve [15].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board, marking the first step in reshaping the Fed [1][10]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Miran's nomination comes after Adriana Kugler's resignation, which was set to end in January 2026 [1]. - Trump praised Miran's economic expertise as "unparalleled" and noted his long-standing collaboration with him [1]. - The nomination is seen as a significant move by Trump to influence the Fed's leadership during his second term [2][10]. Group 2: Miran's Economic Views - Miran is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a reduction in the long-term value of the dollar [2][3]. - He has publicly questioned the independence of the Fed and supports substantial reforms, including allowing all Fed officials to vote at every meeting and giving the White House the power to dismiss Fed officials [2][5]. - Miran has criticized the Fed's handling of inflation and warned of potential legislative changes if the Fed fails to fulfill its responsibilities [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's response to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [7][8]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [8][9]. Group 4: Implications for the Fed - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of Kugler's term, likely having limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [9]. - His nomination is interpreted as the beginning of a systematic effort by Trump to inject his economic ideology into the Fed, potentially leading to significant changes in its operations and policy discourse [10].

Core Points - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore to fill the recently vacated position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1][4] - Trump is actively seeking long-term replacements for other Federal Reserve Board positions [4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Moore is currently the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [4] - Moore previously served as a senior economic policy advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term [4] Group 2: Economic Policy Proposals - Moore has proposed multilateral coordinated interventions to manipulate the exchange rates of the dollar, yen, and euro to prevent the appreciation of the dollar, referred to as "Plaza Accord 2.0" or "Mar-a-Lago Accord" [4] - In a paper published in 2024, Moore suggested enhancing the control of the Federal Reserve Board Chair, including shortening the Chair's term [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Board Changes - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugar on August 8 has been interpreted as a move that allows Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [4] - Kugar's term was originally set to end in January 2026, but his early departure opens the door for new nominations [4]

Group 1 - President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Kugler [1] - This nomination marks Trump's first opportunity to make personnel changes in the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term, paving the way for the implementation of his policy ideas in monetary decision-making [1] - Miran, who holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard, is a key advisor to Trump on trade policy and was a principal architect of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which provided the theoretical basis for the administration's tariff policies [1] Group 2 - The nomination requires Senate confirmation, which is expected to begin after the August recess and typically takes 4 to 8 weeks, meaning the new board member is unlikely to participate in the September FOMC policy meeting [2] - Trump is also seeking candidates for a long-term position, with rumored names including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisors Kevin Hassett, and current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman [2]