美国国债规模已经堆到天文数字，接近35万亿美元，这事儿谁都绕不开。尤其是中国作为最大外国持有者，手里捏着7500亿美元左右的美债，成了全球焦 点。 特朗普第二任期刚起步，就有专家跳出来喊话，说要搞个新版广场协议，还建议把短期美债换成100年长期债券，这等于变相拖欠啊。美国想通过汇率和债 务调整，重振自家经济。问题是，这种老套路放到今天，还能行得通吗？ 美国债务压顶下的新算盘 美国经济这些年表面风光，实际藏着不少隐患。美元强势让出口产品贵得卖不动，制造业回流喊了半天也没见大动静。2024年大选后，特朗普团队上台，很 快就盯上贸易逆差这块硬骨头。 白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在2024年11月抛出一份报告，叫《重构全球贸易体系使用指南》，这份东西在特朗普的海湖庄园发布，所以外头管它 叫"海湖庄园协议"。 报告里直白说，美国得调控关税，压低美元汇率，这样才能改全球贸易格局。为什么？因为美元太强，逆差年年破纪录，2024年对华贸易逆差就超3000亿美 元。 米兰建议学1985年的广场协议，那时候美国拉着日本、英国、法国、德国，在纽约广场饭店签协议，联合干预外汇市场，让美元对日元和马克贬值。 结果美元跌了，日本出 ...

海外宏观 2025 年 11 月 20 日 宏观深度报告 美联储"第三使命"：背景、经验、争议与影响 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU15@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523010001 | | | FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 深 度 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、 美联储"第三使命"的讨论背景。1977 年《联邦储备法》明确美联储的法 定使命为"有效促进充分就业、物价稳定和适度的长期利率"。但美联储官 网与 FOMC 声明长期只强调"双重使命"。2025 年 9 月 3 日，新任理事史 蒂芬·米兰在国会完整引用法定表述，引发市场关注；9 月 3-11 日，10-30 年期美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury is once again a focal point of power struggle, reminiscent of historical tensions, particularly in light of recent political actions and economic pressures [1][5]. Historical Context - The Federal Reserve was under the control of the Treasury until the "Treasury-Fed Accord" in March 1951, which restored its independence and established the foundation for modern central banking in the U.S. [1][3]. - During World War II, the Fed agreed to keep short-term Treasury bill rates at 3.8% and long-term bond rates at 2.5% to assist in war financing, leading to increased money supply and loss of control over its balance sheet [2]. Recent Developments - Former President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud, which she has contested in court, potentially impacting the Fed's independence [1][4]. - Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a new Fed governor and the ongoing investigation by the Justice Department into Cook's allegations highlight the current political pressures on the Fed [1][4]. Proposed Economic Strategies - Milan's "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" suggests radical measures to enhance U.S. export competitiveness, including forcing foreign governments to convert U.S. debt into long-term bonds and implementing aggressive financial policies [4]. - Critics argue that these strategies could disrupt the global financial system and represent a regression to political manipulation of the Fed, contrasting sharply with the independence established in 1951 [4][5]. Future Implications - The current situation presents a crossroads for the U.S., weighing the importance of institutional independence and market trust against the pressures of managing national debt [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Citi suggests that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen [1] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it may lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [1] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - The potential for high-level bilateral coordination to address market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [1] - Citi analysts believe that there will be a persistent tendency for the dollar to weaken and the yen to strengthen from a monetary policy perspective [1] Group 3: Yen Performance Context - This expectation contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen, which has been the worst-performing major currency over the past three months due to political uncertainty and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could drive a weaker dollar and a stronger yen [1][2] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it could lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [2] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - To stabilize the market, the US may pressure Japan to extend the duration of its US Treasury holdings when managing its foreign exchange reserves [2] - This high-level bilateral coordination to address potential market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [2] - From a monetary policy perspective, there is an expected ongoing trend of a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, which contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen due to political uncertainties and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]

Group 1 - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a confirmation hearing for Stephen Milan, the current Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to become a Federal Reserve Governor on September 4 at 10 AM local time [1] - The Republican-led Senate is expected to expedite Milan's confirmation process before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting in September, barring any procedural hurdles or unexpected opposition [2] - Milan's nomination is a priority for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, with hopes for approval before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Milan previously passed a Senate confirmation vote for his current position with a party-line vote of 53 in favor and 46 against, without any Republican opposition [2] - Despite lacking the votes to block his nomination, Milan is anticipated to face tough questioning from senators regarding recent actions by President Trump, including the firing of Fed Governor Cook and pressure to lower interest rates [3] - If confirmed before the Fed's September meeting, Milan's presence could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts, as he may align with other governors to advocate for more aggressive rate reductions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a significant move to reshape the Fed's leadership and align it more closely with his economic agenda, particularly in advocating for lower interest rates and financial deregulation [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Nomination Announcement - Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board [2][3]. Background of Stephen Miran - Miran is praised by Trump for his unparalleled expertise in economics and has been a close advisor since Trump's second term began [3]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a lower long-term value of the dollar and has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Views on Federal Reserve - Miran has criticized the Fed's flexible inflation targets and warned that failure to manage inflation could lead to legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act or the dismissal of board members by future presidents [6]. - He has also pointed out that the Fed's policies have created market expectations for aggressive easing in response to economic downturns [7]. Proposed Reforms - Miran has co-authored a report suggesting radical reforms for the Federal Reserve, including: - Granting voting rights to all Fed officials at every FOMC meeting [8]. - Allowing state governors to control local oversight committees for selecting regional Fed presidents [9]. - Permitting the White House to dismiss Fed officials at any time [10]. - Prohibiting board members from taking executive branch positions for four years after their term [11]. - Requiring Congress to allocate the Fed's operating budget [12]. Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [13][14]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [14]. Implications of the Nomination - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [16]. - His nomination is seen as the beginning of Trump's long-term plan to reshape the Fed, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the FOMC [17].

Group 1 - President Trump has officially nominated Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler on the Federal Reserve Board, following Kugler's unexpected resignation [1][2] - Miran is expected to complete Kugler's remaining term, which was originally set to end on January 31, 2026 [1] - The Senate must approve all Federal Reserve nominees, and there are indications that the confirmation process may be delayed due to the Senate's recess and Democratic efforts to slow down Trump's nominations [2] Group 2 - Stephen Miran has a strong background in economics, having previously served as a senior economic policy advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term and currently chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers [4] - Miran is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," advocating for measures such as currency devaluation and debt restructuring to address U.S. economic issues [4] - He has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and supports significant reforms within the institution [4]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran is seen as the beginning of a long-term plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the authority of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1][15]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Trump officially nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat left by Adriana Kugler's resignation, praising Miran's unparalleled expertise in economics [3]. - Miran's nomination is viewed as a significant step in Trump's efforts to reform the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term [4][15]. Group 2: Miran's Policy Views - Miran has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and advocates for radical reforms, including allowing all Federal Reserve officials to vote at every meeting and granting the White House the power to dismiss central bank officials at any time [4][7]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," which argues for measures to lower the long-term value of the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors believing it could be beneficial for the market, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [12]. - Analysts generally agree that Miran's nomination is unlikely to change expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [13][14]. Group 4: Implications for the Federal Reserve - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions, especially given the high likelihood of a rate cut in September [14]. - His appointment is interpreted as a significant symbolic move, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating a potential shift in the operational and policy discourse of the Federal Reserve [15].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board, marking the first step in reshaping the Fed [1][10]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Miran's nomination comes after Adriana Kugler's resignation, which was set to end in January 2026 [1]. - Trump praised Miran's economic expertise as "unparalleled" and noted his long-standing collaboration with him [1]. - The nomination is seen as a significant move by Trump to influence the Fed's leadership during his second term [2][10]. Group 2: Miran's Economic Views - Miran is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a reduction in the long-term value of the dollar [2][3]. - He has publicly questioned the independence of the Fed and supports substantial reforms, including allowing all Fed officials to vote at every meeting and giving the White House the power to dismiss Fed officials [2][5]. - Miran has criticized the Fed's handling of inflation and warned of potential legislative changes if the Fed fails to fulfill its responsibilities [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's response to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [7][8]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [8][9]. Group 4: Implications for the Fed - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of Kugler's term, likely having limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [9]. - His nomination is interpreted as the beginning of a systematic effort by Trump to inject his economic ideology into the Fed, potentially leading to significant changes in its operations and policy discourse [10].