Report Information - Report Title: Caustic Soda Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290, and the spot price declined slightly. The SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.3% to 86.0%. The alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: The main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290 this week, and the spot price declined slightly. As of December 31, 2025, the SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2197 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -45 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some plants in East and North China restarted last week, driving the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase by 1.3% to 86.0%. On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. In terms of inventory, affected by the end-of-month inventory clearance in North China and the rigid demand from downstream, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons last week. In terms of profit, due to the weakening of liquid chlorine prices, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, SH2603 fluctuated and rose, and the position of the 03 contract decreased [9]. - **Spot Market**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 703, with a converted price of 2197. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Henan was 704 yuan, with a converted price of 2200. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia was 656 yuan, with a converted price of 2050. The ex-factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton. The spot was at a discount to the main futures, and the number of registered warrants remained stable this week [14][23][28][33]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: The prices of raw salt in Northwest and Shandong were basically stable. The price of 5500K thermal coal in Qinhuangdao dropped to 670 yuan/ton [39][44]. - **Supply**: In November, the caustic soda output was 356.95 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%. Last week, the operating rate rose to 86% [47]. - **Demand**: In November, the alumina output was 800.83 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.14%. Last week, the viscose staple fiber开工率 was 87.03%. The alumina price was weak, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable [53][57][60]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the caustic soda import was 0.09 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda import from January to November was 0.82 tons. In November, the caustic soda export was 27.44 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda export from January to November was 376.67 tons [66][72]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the enterprise sample inventory was 44.22 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.83% [77]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali decreased month-on-month [80]. 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 25.81%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 30.85% [83].

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供给端压力仍存，氯碱装置运行维持高位，全国样本企业开工负荷率为89.84%，周产量86.95万吨。检修损失量减少，且后续除个 别企业外无大规模检修，供应充足。需求端表现疲软，下游支撑减弱。核心下游氧化铝运行产能回落至81.37%，粘胶短纤开工率微 降。整体需求不温不火，下游及贸易商接货积极性不高，多持观望心态，刚需采购为主。库存表现不一。山东地区因以价换量库存下 降18.12%，但华东地区整体库存增加了2.83%，累库压力在部分区域显现。利润大幅缩水，受液碱价格下跌影响，氯碱企业ECU盈 利显著下滑。山东有自备电厂企业盈利环比减少25.90%，无自备电厂企业亏损扩大至146.97元/吨。当前市场利空因素主导。供应 端充裕而需求端缺乏亮点，加之市场看空情绪较浓，导致现货价格持 ...

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 液碱市场供需处于供增需弱、累库施压、利润收缩的格局，短期走势偏空。供给端虽然部分装置检修，但行业整体开工负荷率提升至90.29%，烧碱产量环 比增加0.55%至87.10万吨，供应压力未减反而微增。需求端支撑有限。尽管主力下游氧化铝产能运行率回升至76.76%，刚需尚在，但非铝下游接货积极 性不高，且粘胶短纤行业亏损加剧，市场观望情绪浓厚，整体需求表现平淡。 库存端累库明显。山东32%液碱工厂库存环比大增13.39%，华东样本企业 库存更是激增25.78%，厂家出货压力加大。利润端大幅缩减。受液碱和液氯价格双降影响，氯碱企业盈利恶化。山东无自备电厂企业ECU由盈转亏，有自 备电厂企业盈利也大幅下滑28.83%。鉴于供应充足且库存持续累积，加上下游买涨不买跌的谨慎心态，市场缺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with short - term weak trends mainly. The supply in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is continuously abundant, the export market lacks substantial boost, and the demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate. The caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend [4][5]. - The alumina market is gradually entering a stalemate in the short - term, with a supply surplus situation remaining unchanged, and prices are expected to still have a large probability of falling [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is abundant, and the export market lacks substantial boost. The demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate, with many news of potential production cuts from the end of the last month. The liquid chlorine price remains in the profit range [4]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, the caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of alumina plants has continued to rise. The alumina market is in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall [7][9][17]. - **Caustic soda market**: The caustic soda inventory has decreased, with a 6.29% week - on - week decrease in the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, with an average of 84.8% for 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 31 to November 6, 2025, a 0.5% increase from the previous week [10][13][19]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has decreased. The caustic soda futures price, 32% liquid caustic soda spot price, 50% caustic soda spot price, and flake caustic soda spot price are presented in the form of charts [9][25][27]. - **Inventory data**: The factory inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the inventory in different regions shows different trends. The inventory of flake caustic soda is also presented in the form of charts [10][13][42]. - **Production capacity and production data**: The alumina production capacity has increased, with the national alumina operating capacity reaching 96.85 million tons as of this Friday, a 100,000 - ton increase from last week. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and new caustic soda production capacity has been put into operation [17][19][52]. - **Device maintenance data**: Multiple caustic soda plants have carried out or planned maintenance, affecting the local production capacity [55]. - **Consumption data**: The consumption of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts, including total consumption, liquid caustic soda consumption, and flake caustic soda consumption [57]. - **Export data**: The export of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts. In 2025, overseas alumina new production capacity is expected to reach 4.5 million tons, and the preparation of caustic soda in Indonesia has been completed [73][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. Multiple sets of equipment in East, North, Northwest, South, and Northeast China restarted, leading to a significant increase in supply. The downstream alumina maintained a high - operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing increased slightly. However, due to the obvious increase in supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart equipment in North and Central China, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to increase. The supply of downstream alumina is loose and the low - profit situation may continue, suppressing the industry's stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream industries have rigid demand for procurement with little change. The high inventory of liquid caustic soda in factories increases the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. The continuation of high - operating, high - inventory, and weak - demand situations exerts pressure on prices. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 138,392 lots, an increase of 10,328 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 14,339 lots, an increase of 25 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 451,353 lots, an increase of 197,250 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. From October 25 - 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% week - on - week to 442,600 tons. From October 24 - 30, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the caustic soda industry daily report on October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, with a 5-yuan increase; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2380 yuan/ton, and for May was 2475 yuan/ton with a 2-yuan increase [2] - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 120124 lots, a decrease of 1434 lots; the trading volume was 252513 lots, an increase of 28850 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures traders for caustic soda was -787 lots, a decrease of 1801 lots [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 188 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan increase [2] Upstream - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 647 yuan/ton, a 3-yuan increase [2] Industry - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] Downstream - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2830 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan decrease [2] Group 3: Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% to 67.26% [2] - As of October 16th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% decrease from the previous week and a 13.83% increase year-on-year [2] - From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Views - The SH2601 contract showed a "cross" oscillation and closed at 2380 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of maintenance devices increased, and the operating rates of caustic soda in North, East, and Northwest China decreased to varying degrees, with the national average operating rate decreasing [2] - The high operating state of downstream alumina continued, and the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high [2] - Affected by the subsidy from liquid chlorine and the relatively strong market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry recovered last week. This week, there are both shutdown and restart devices for caustic soda, and the supply is expected to increase [2] - The number of loss-making alumina enterprises increased, but there are currently no large-scale production reduction plans, and the short-term caustic soda demand is not expected to shrink significantly. In the fourth quarter, there are both expectations of new alumina capacity being put into production and cost-driven production reduction of existing devices [2] - If the alumina production reduction is implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new devices. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have declined from a high level, and the pressure has eased. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to oscillate, with a daily range of around 2300 - 2420 [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The Shandong spot market pressure has been alleviated, and with alumina new capacity starting caustic soda tenders, the market may experience a short - term rebound. The cost support is strong due to the increase in Shandong grid electricity prices in October, so caustic soda should not be shorted aggressively [2] - The overall trend strength of caustic soda is neutral, with a trend strength value of 0 [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On October 15, the Shandong liquid caustic soda market was partially stable. Some areas with low inventory and good sales supported price increases. The non - aluminum pick - up in the eastern market improved, and the inventory decreased; the southern inventory was not high, and sales were okay, leading to price hikes [1] - The 01 contract futures price was 2438, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 800, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was 62 [1] [Market Condition Analysis] - In October, there were new maintenance plans in Shandong and Hebei, so the supply pressure of caustic soda was not large. On the demand side, alumina plants in Hebei made concentrated purchases, and Shandong was expected to reduce inventory next week, making the local spot market strong in the short term [2] - The alumina industry has a pattern of high production and high inventory, with continuously compressed profits. Marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 560 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to early next year, the low - profit situation may cause other alumina plants to reduce their inventory levels [2] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The caustic soda market is currently under weak real - world pressure, but cost support is strong, and the market may show wide - range fluctuations [3]. - The current caustic soda futures are affected by the spot pressure of Shandong 32% caustic soda, and there are intertwined long - and short - term expectations that cannot be falsified in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2528, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 91 [1]. 2. Spot News - On September 26, the local liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. With the approaching of the long holiday, most enterprises were eager to reduce inventory, and the short - term market was still weak [2]. 3. Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is still under pressure, but the optimistic expectation brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen due to regional arbitrage, and the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda has been greatly relieved, limiting the further short - term decline of the spot price [3]. - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit pattern may also lead to a decline in the inventory level of other alumina plants [3]. - Before the inventory - building starts, it is difficult to judge the gap caused by inventory - building, so the futures market is still trading the weak reality. The export situation has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the Shandong - South China regional arbitrage also supports the 50% caustic soda market. The cost of caustic soda is strongly supported by the increase in Shandong's grid electricity price in October [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term weak rating for caustic soda [1] Report's Core View - Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, the futures market is reflecting the decline in spot prices in Shandong, and there is still pressure on spot prices in the short term. The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. Overall, the market is short - term weak [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 01 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is 96 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda in the province is generally stable today. There is resistance to high non - aluminum prices, and some negotiated orders have declined. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [2] Market Condition Analysis - The lack of upward drivers for caustic soda mainly comes from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea lead to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, the export profit cannot expand, the export orders are not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. In terms of alumina, the high - output and high - inventory pattern compresses profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities in Guangxi at the end of this year and from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the stockpiling starts, the market is difficult to achieve resonance between futures and spot [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a weak trend [4]