Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

烧碱：偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 11合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2674 850 2656 -18 2025 年 8 月 18 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 当前烧碱市场核心驱动为需求端持续扩张，氧化铝刚需和备货需求持续上升，尤其今年年底广西地区存 在 360 万吨氧化铝产能预期投产，广西地区烧碱供应偏紧，灌槽需求的烧碱大部分只能从外部采购，而片碱 -液碱价差已处于年内高位水平，因此后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货源流转。此外，93 阅兵影响烧碱 运输，近期山东某氧化铝厂的烧碱送货量持续偏低，其采购价存在上调预期。 出口方面支撑仍较强，今年出口方向同比大幅扩张，只是囤货节奏会影响国内烧碱价格。供应端，PVC 等耗氯下游的弱势会限制行业整体利润的大幅扩张，未来也可能存在耗氯下游更差，导致烧碱被动减产的 可能。整体看，烧碱下游旺季补库容易导致现货驱动向上，后期维持偏多思路对待。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 烧碱市场周报 添加客服 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：受高库存、高仓单影响，本周烧碱期货主力跌幅显著；山东氧化铝企业采购价下调，带动山东32%液 碱价格下跌。截至2025年8月8日收盘，SH2509合约收于2446元/吨，较上周收盘下跌3.66%；山东32%液 碱折百价下跌至2500元/吨。 基本面：供应端，本周国内停车、恢复装置并存，烧碱产能利用率环比+1.2%至85.1%。需求端，上周氧化 铝开工率环比+0.13%至85.58%；本周粘胶短纤开工率维稳在84.97%，印染开工率环比+0.38%至59.28%。 库存方面，本周液碱工厂库存环比+8.84%至46.17万吨。山东液碱货源充裕，氧化铝厂采购价下调，非铝下 游刚需偏弱、高价抵触，32%液碱市场价承压下跌。本周山东液氯补贴有所好转，山东氯碱利润较上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic manufacturing PMI index declined in July, and the new round of US tariff policies put pressure on the market. The supply in the East China region remained stable this week with no planned device maintenance, resulting in sufficient supply. Non - aluminum demand did not improve significantly, and the off - season continued. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province may decline. Although caustic soda has strong downward support, market sentiment has cooled recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The near - month contracts will face certain warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong showed a weak trend, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the price of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and the price difference between different regions were presented. During the period from July 25th to July 31st, 2025, the prices of sea salt, 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, and 98% flake caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton, the price of alumina increased by 0.63% to 3215 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.79% to 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46% to 69500 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts were presented [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: From January to July 2025, the average operating rate of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 83.9%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rates in North China, South China, and East China increased, while those in the Northwest and Northeast decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 87.9%. It is expected that the operating rate will be around 83.6%, and the weekly production will be about 808,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, such as Leshan Fuhua in Sichuan from August 1st to August 16th, and Shandong Hualu from August 8th with the restart date to be determined [23][24]. - **Downstream: Alumina**: As of July 31st, 2025, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.8 million tons. The supply of alumina increased, with a significant increase in the north and tight supply in the south due to roasting furnace maintenance [27]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31st, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 424,200 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.37% compared to the previous period. The inventory trends varied in different regions, with an upward trend in North China, a decline in South China and Central China, an increase in East China and Southwest China, and a decrease in the Northwest [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of July 31st, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 30.36% to - 279 yuan/ton. As of August 1st, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to reach 78.39% this week. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 71.02% [37][38].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - This week, caustic soda futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, while spot prices rose slightly in some areas. The supply shortage situation has been alleviated to some extent due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled plants. There is no significant boost from the demand side, and the off - season of non - aluminum demand continues. Traders and downstream users are resistant to high - priced caustic soda. It is expected that caustic soda prices may fluctuate weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the changes in the liquid chlorine subsidy price in North China and the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in the future [10]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week. The closing price of the main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The trading volume was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] million lots from last week, and the open interest was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] lots from last week [2][4][8]. b) Spot Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 17, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The capacity utilization rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased due to the low price of liquid chlorine [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 38.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.56% [4]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Some viscose staple fiber plants in Shandong restarted this week, increasing the capacity utilization rate. The comprehensive operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [6]. c) Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price of liquid caustic soda strengthened slightly in some areas, with price increases in North China and East China, and remained stable in other markets [8]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week, and both trading volume and open interest decreased [8]. d) Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of raw salt and electricity remained stable, and the production cost remained basically unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Products**: The recent start - up of alumina has increased, mainly to replenish previous long - term contracts. The overall spot market is tight, and some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. There is no significant change in non - aluminum downstream demand. The subsidy for the by - product liquid chlorine decreased this week, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot supply and demand of caustic soda in Shandong were weak, the market price of liquid caustic soda declined, the sentiment in the market improved, the price of the futures main contract rose, and the basis converged. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week's close; the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, affected by the increase in maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, and the national average utilization rate decreased by 2.0% to 80.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; this week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which was at a moderately high level compared to the same period. This week, the chlor-alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level compared to the same period. In July, the purchase prices of alumina plants in Shandong and other places were lowered, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the planned maintenance capacity in July will decrease. Affected by the restart of shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, there is an expectation of an increase in caustic soda supply, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the room for improvement in the operating rate. The alumina price is weak, the profit is meager, and the growth of the operating rate is lackluster. The previous high delivery volume of caustic soda plants to alumina enterprises has led to implicit inventory pressure, which restricts future demand. The demand in the non - aluminum off - season is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand. As the future supply increases, the spot price will still face some pressure against the backdrop of limited demand. In the futures market, the replenishment expectation before the non - aluminum peak season provides some support for the price of the 09 contract, but the rebound space is limited in the absence of positive fundamentals. Technically, the SH2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 2,300 and the resistance around 2,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis converged. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased with the national average capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.5%. Demand from alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries weakened. Inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton [8]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the operating rate. Demand is weak, and the spot price will face pressure. The futures price has some support but limited rebound space [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the position volume of the 09 contract decreased [9]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Shandong: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 780 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,438 yuan/ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was - 300 yuan/ton [15][37]. - Henan: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 864 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,700 yuan/ton [27]. - Inner Mongolia: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 880 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [32]. - Basis: The spot price decreased while the futures price increased, leading to a convergence of the basis [22]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Raw salt: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [44]. - Steam coal: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 621 yuan/ton [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: In June, the caustic soda output was 3.4167 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%. This week, the operating rate dropped to 80.5% [52]. - Demand: The alumina output in May was 7.6323 million tons, and the operating rate last week was 80.67%. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 75.17%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber remained stable [57][61][64]. - Import and export: In May, the caustic soda import was 0.05 tons, and the cumulative import from January to May was 0.33 tons. In May, the caustic soda export was 33.09 tons, and the cumulative export from January to May was 1.349 million tons [70][76]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 38.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [81]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased and was at a neutral level compared to the same period [84]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was 15.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.27% [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of weakening supply - demand has started to materialize, with the spot price of caustic soda falling. The main futures contract SH2509 is oscillating at a low level near the lower - cost range. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the range estimated to be around 2220 - 2350 [7]. - In the medium - to - long term, there are many caustic soda production facilities scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high supply pressure. The delivered volume of the main contract remains high, while the off - peak demand from non - aluminum sectors is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Although the cost of self - supplied power plants has some support, the caustic soda spot price still has room to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2256 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week's close. The converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2531 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The overall caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2%, with some plants in central, northern, and northeastern China reducing their loads, and some in northwestern and eastern China restarting or increasing production [7]. - **Demand**: Alumina is still in the resumption phase. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, while the dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.64% to 60.73% [7]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 36.56 tons, at a moderately high level compared to the same period [7]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 501 yuan/ton, still showing considerable profitability [7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, a 750,000 - ton plant of Dongying Huatai will undergo maintenance, and some plants are planned to restart, which may lead to a decline in capacity utilization. There is high supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The futures contract is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main caustic soda contract oscillated at a low level this week, and the position of the 09 contract remained basically stable [8]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 810 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2531 yuan; in Henan, the market price is 928 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2900 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, the market price is 912 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 25 yuan/ton [14][24][29][34]. - **Basis**: The spot price decline has narrowed the basis [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - **Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Steam Coal**: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao remained stable at 609 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply**: In May, the caustic soda production was 3.4642 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. This week, the operating rate rose to 81.2% [49]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In May, the alumina production was 7.6323 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 80.87% [55]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.8%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber declined [59][62]. - **Import and Export**: - **Import**: In April, the caustic soda import was 900 tons; from January to April, the cumulative import was 2800 tons [68]. - **Export**: In April, the caustic soda export was 391,000 tons; from January to April, the cumulative export was 1.349 million tons [74]. - **Inventory**: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 365,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.63% [79]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased but remained quite profitable [82]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 20.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.15% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The high profit of liquid caustic soda offsets the positive impact of concentrated maintenance within the month, and the commissioning of plants from June to July brings an expectation of intensified medium - and long - term supply pressure. The profit growth of downstream alumina slows down, the supply of raw material bauxite is tight, and some enterprises are cautious about increasing production. Non - aluminum demand has weak rigid demand and resists high prices. Currently, the inventory pressure is relatively high. The cost of thermal coal for self - supplied power plants lacks support in the short term. The weak expectation of caustic soda spot is being realized, and the spot price in Shandong has declined recently. The futures price is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 2230 - 2340 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2273 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the futures holding volume is 287,509 lots, up 459 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 23,570 lots, up 1591 lots; the futures trading volume is 444,883 lots, down 27,019 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2328 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2656.25 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is 321 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. As of June 12th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11% [1]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side: Multiple sets of devices in North China were shut down or reduced in load last week, and the industry capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.5% to 80.9%. The demand side: The alumina start - up rate increased by 0.52% to 80.87% last week; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 80.56%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 61.36%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 5.52% to 382,100 tons last week. The profit of chlor - alkali was around 613 yuan/ton last week, with considerable profitability [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]