新京报贝壳财经讯 11月23日，国联民生证券发布研报称，本周港口煤价暂稳，产地煤价继续上涨。基 本面来看，即使进入旺季，强监管下产地供应大幅提升可能性较低，供给端仍受限；需求端电厂日耗持 续提升，伴随后续进一步降温以及工业生产进入年底冲刺阶段，用电用煤旺季需求将逐步兑现；本周港 口库存受封航影响有所累积，但伴随天气好转库存将逐步下降，同时在铁路运力限制下，港口可流通货 源仍偏紧，叠加发运成本支撑较强，待需求充分释放后，煤价涨价动能持续，年底瞬间高点或冲高至 1000元/吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal consumption is approaching a turning point, with a clear direction and potential for growth. The recent cold wave is expected to increase coal demand as power plants will need to procure more coal, leading to a potential rise in coal prices [6][29] - The report highlights that the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 2.7% week-on-week but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, with coal prices likely to rise steadily [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed slightly, with a decline of 0.78% compared to a 1.08% drop in the CSI 300 index, outperforming it by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 752 million tons, a 2% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 698 RMB/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week, while the import price index for thermal coal was 944 RMB/ton, up 6.19% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with the main coking coal price at 1830 RMB/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.3 million tons, a 2.1% increase week-on-week but a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory in society was 17.68 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 374,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 873,000 tons [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is set to enhance its coal mining operations in Indonesia, particularly through the TSE coal mine project, which is expected to significantly increase coal production and improve profitability in the coming years [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: TSE Coal Mine Project - The TSE coal mine is located in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, covering an area of 168 square kilometers, with a mining license valid until May 14, 2034, and can be renewed for another ten years [1]. - The project construction is anticipated to commence in the first quarter of 2026, with estimated coal reserves of 378.79 million tons and total resources of 897.14 million tons as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The coal quality at TSE ranges from 4,990 to 6,056 kcal/kg, which is superior to the existing SDE coal mine's quality of approximately 4,500 kcal/kg [1]. Group 2: SDE Coal Mine Performance - In the first half of 2025, the SDE coal mine produced 2.05 million tons of raw coal, a significant increase from 755,000 tons in the same period last year, with a daily production peak of 27,000 tons [2]. - The company plans to enhance its washing capacity by adding new equipment, which is expected to double the production capacity post the commissioning of SDE Phase II in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The company operates five major mining areas in South Kalimantan, establishing a strong foundation for resource value operations [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Pricing - The domestic coal price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to supply constraints from safety inspections and low inventory levels, which are likely to support price increases [3][4]. - The company anticipates that coal prices will rise further if demand exceeds expectations, particularly in the event of a cold winter, potentially leading to peak prices by year-end [4]. - The company projects net profits of 1.6 billion, 6.9 billion, and 11.9 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.8X, 10.7X, and 6.2X [4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter due to supply constraints and rising demand driven by early winter conditions [1] Industry Summary - The coal sector experienced a strong rally on the 5th, with companies like Antai Group and Dayou Energy hitting their daily price limits, and others like Shaanxi Black Cat and Yunmei Energy also showing notable gains [1] - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with these constraints expected to persist into the fourth quarter [1] - Demand has increased due to accelerated cooling in northern regions and early winter stockpiling, with expectations of further replenishment needs as the winter season extends [1] Price Expectations - CITIC Securities forecasts that the average price of port thermal coal in the fourth quarter may rise by over 15% quarter-on-quarter, potentially exceeding 850 yuan per ton [1] - Coking coal prices are also expected to remain high, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 200 yuan per ton [1] - If the enforcement of overproduction checks strengthens, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Investment Recommendations - In the context of improving policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations, the coal sector is anticipated to have a sustained rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - Companies that are "defensive and offensive" leaders in thermal coal should be monitored, along with undervalued firms that exhibit good earnings elasticity [1]

中信证券表示，煤炭板块三季度业绩随煤价回暖而环比提升。四季度在旺季月份及天气因素加持下，煤 价在目前水平上或将进一步上涨；若叠加供给收缩政策执行力度强化，煤价还有望超预期。在政策、煤 价、业绩预期均有改善的背景下，板块四季度反弹具备持续性。一方面建议关注"攻守兼备"的动力煤红 利龙头，另一方面也可关注低估值且业绩弹性好的企业。 三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓，四季度上述约 束供给释放的因素依然维持；需求端，10月份北方降温加快，冬储需求也提前释放，考虑今年北方冬季 持续时间长，后续或有补库需求叠加，12月份供给或再度出现缺口。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 17.60 CNY [6]. Core Views - The report indicates that coal production and sales have declined in Q3, but there is potential for growth and elasticity in the future. The company has turned profitable from its investment in the Tongxin coal mine, and the most challenging period for the industry has passed. The group asset injection contributes to growth, and the dividend payout ratio has increased for three consecutive years [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 15,342 million CNY, decreasing by 4.6% from the previous year. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 15,033 million CNY, a further decline of 2.0%. By 2025, revenue is estimated to drop significantly to 12,294 million CNY, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3,301 million CNY in 2023, down 8.3% year-on-year, and is expected to decline to 2,808 million CNY in 2024, a drop of 14.9%. By 2025, net profit is projected to fall to 1,835 million CNY, a decrease of 34.7% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.97 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.68 CNY in 2024, and further down to 1.10 CNY in 2025 [4]. Production and Sales Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, coal production reached 26.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52%, while sales were 20.86 million tons, a decrease of 5.50% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, coal production was 8.97 million tons, up 1.12% year-on-year, but down 4.17% quarter-on-quarter. Sales in Q3 were 7.56 million tons, down 0.74% year-on-year and down 5.87% quarter-on-quarter [12]. - The average revenue per ton of coal in Q3 2025 was 425 CNY, a decrease of 67 CNY year-on-year, but an increase of 6 CNY quarter-on-quarter. The report notes that the increase in revenue per ton was lower than the market coal price due to promotional discounts to meet long-term contract obligations [12]. Investment and Growth Prospects - The company has seen a turnaround in investment income from its 32% stake in the Tongxin coal mine, reporting an investment income of 45 million CNY in Q3 2025, recovering from a loss of 48 million CNY in Q2 [12]. - The report highlights that the company is in the process of acquiring assets from the Jineng Holding Group, which includes exploration rights with a resource volume of 1.844 billion tons and an estimated recoverable reserve of 1 billion tons [12]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 45% in 2024, marking three consecutive years of growth, supported by sufficient cash reserves of 13.9 billion CNY as of Q3 2025 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery phase driven by seasonal demand and supply-side policies that restrict overproduction, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices [1][6][10]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - A significant drop in temperatures across northern regions has initiated the heating season, increasing coal demand from steel mills and thermal power plants [1]. - The coal price has been rising due to high demand and supply-side policies aimed at reducing overproduction, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price increasing from 621 RMB/ton to 699 RMB/ton from June to September 2025, a rise of 12.6% [6][10]. - The coal market is expected to benefit from seasonal demand as heating needs rise, with predictions of a colder winter potentially boosting coal procurement [10][11]. Group 2: Company Performance - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy have shown signs of improvement in their financial metrics, with China Shenhua's Q3 revenue decline narrowing to 12.56% year-on-year, compared to a 16.05% decline in the first half of the year [2][5]. - China Shenhua's coal business gross margin improved from 29.4% to 30.5% due to effective cost control, while China Coal Energy's net profit rebounded by 28.3% quarter-on-quarter despite a slight year-on-year decline [2][3]. - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company reported a 4.92% increase in coal production year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating stable operational performance amidst industry challenges [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The coal sector has seen a significant influx of capital, with over 2 billion RMB net inflow into coal stocks in October, making it one of the hottest sectors in the secondary market [1]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is currently at 14.82, indicating that the sector is undervalued compared to historical standards, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - High dividend payouts from major coal companies, such as China Shenhua's interim dividend of 0.98 RMB per share, reflect strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing the sector's attractiveness [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the coal mining sector is experiencing a price increase due to supply constraints and strong demand, particularly as winter approaches [1] - The Wind Coal Mining Select Index has risen over 2% as of November 3, with companies like China Coal Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and others showing significant gains [1] - Recent reports from the coal team at China Merchants Securities indicate that production cuts and equipment maintenance in major production areas have led to a decrease in capacity utilization, tightening supply in certain regions [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand remains robust, supported by the onset of winter heating in northern regions, which is expected to sustain coal prices in the fourth quarter [1] - The coking coal market is experiencing strong upward momentum, with tight supply conditions and heightened purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, leading to some coal prices reaching new highs for the year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Insights - The analysis predicts a significant supply-demand gap for thermal coal in Q4 2025, with potential inventory reductions of 39.04 million tons or 54.11 million tons depending on different growth rate assumptions for electricity generation [2][7] - Despite an expected increase in imports due to rising coal prices, the overall supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen, indicating further potential for price increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - For Q4 2025, domestic supply is projected to decrease by 0.4% to 1.03 billion tons, assuming supply growth aligns with September's rates [7] - The report estimates that if electricity generation growth matches the past five years' average, the supply-demand gap could reach approximately 19.84 million tons [7] - Current coal inventories at major ports and power plants have decreased year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply situation [7] Price Trends - As of October 31, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is stable at 770 RMB per ton, with expectations for price fluctuations in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal demand [6][17] - The report highlights that the coal price may experience upward pressure due to ongoing supply constraints and the approaching winter season [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [7][30] - It emphasizes a mixed strategy of defensive and offensive investments in the coal sector, recommending stocks with low price-to-book ratios and high dividend yields [7][30]