今日 A 股煤炭（核心股）板块呈现震荡走高的强势态势，板块内焦煤、动力煤等细分方向联动上涨， 赚钱效应持续释放。个股表现亮眼，山西焦化强势封死涨停，成为板块领涨个股；潞安环能涨幅超 8%，领跑焦煤细分赛道，展现出强劲的股价走势；晋控煤业、电投能源、陕西黑猫、昊华能源等多只 个股同步跟涨。从资金面来看，受行业供需格局优化、煤价中枢抬升预期及高股息低估值的价值属性吸 引，场内资金对煤炭板块的配置意愿显著提升，个股活跃，板块整体呈现出量价协同的良性走势。 煤炭（核心股）行业 1 月最新的利好消息 煤价底部抬升，行业均价中枢预计上移：据中信证券 1 月 12 日研报显示，2026 年煤炭（核心股）行业 将延续供需双弱格局，但政策托底下供给宽松幅度收窄，煤价底部有效抬升，预计全年国内煤炭均价涨 幅约 5～7%，上市公司业绩或随煤价同步改善。 风险提示：本文提及的行业信息与企业动态仅作梳理，不构成任何投资建议；企业经营及市场波动存在 不确定性，请注意相关风险 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：小讯 主产区煤价止跌回调，市场情绪逐步回暖：1 月 27 日煤炭（核心股）主产区市场数据显示，坑口煤价 迎来 ...

浙商证券指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上，价格有望抬 升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较大。年初至 今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度业绩显著改 善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展 (01277)涨8.18%，报1.72港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华(01088)涨3.62%，报 43.54港元；中煤能源(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1月初，部分省 份推动煤炭部分保供产能退出，据 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal mining industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The current phase is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a focus on the recovery of coal market conditions and value reassessment [3][5]. - Supply constraints are expected to re-emerge, with domestic coal production potentially declining due to regulatory checks and safety inspections [5][13]. - Demand for coal is projected to see slight growth in 2026, driven by a 5% economic growth rate and increased coal consumption in non-electric sectors [5][13]. - Short-term coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to seasonal demand increases and inventory reductions at coastal ports [5][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][32]. - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [34]. - International thermal coal prices show slight increases, with Newcastle coal at 71.8 USD/ton, up 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [4][32]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 90.3%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points week-on-week [5][13]. - Demand from coastal provinces has increased, with daily consumption rising by 29.9 thousand tons (+15.11%) [5][13]. - Chemical coal consumption has also increased, with a weekly rise of 8.36 thousand tons (+1.13%) [5][13]. 3. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of coal supply as a stabilizing factor in the market, with expected regulatory constraints leading to a tighter supply environment [5][13]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices and the potential for value reassessment in the sector are highlighted as key investment themes [5][13]. - The report suggests that the coal sector remains an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for high-quality coal companies with strong cash flows and dividend yields [5][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent increase in thermal coal spot prices is attributed to reduced supply from coal mines due to production cuts at the end of the year and increased demand driven by cold weather, which is expected to keep daily consumption high [1] - Future cold weather is anticipated to support high daily consumption levels, while high-cost coal mines may reduce production following price declines, thereby supporting an increase in thermal coal prices [1] - Coking coal supply is constrained by safety and environmental inspections, while demand has slightly increased due to higher pig iron production, leading to an increase in inventory levels [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The index is considered to have strong industry representation and focuses on the coal sector in its allocation [1]

新京报贝壳财经讯 11月23日，国联民生证券发布研报称，本周港口煤价暂稳，产地煤价继续上涨。基 本面来看，即使进入旺季，强监管下产地供应大幅提升可能性较低，供给端仍受限；需求端电厂日耗持 续提升，伴随后续进一步降温以及工业生产进入年底冲刺阶段，用电用煤旺季需求将逐步兑现；本周港 口库存受封航影响有所累积，但伴随天气好转库存将逐步下降，同时在铁路运力限制下，港口可流通货 源仍偏紧，叠加发运成本支撑较强，待需求充分释放后，煤价涨价动能持续，年底瞬间高点或冲高至 1000元/吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal consumption is approaching a turning point, with a clear direction and potential for growth. The recent cold wave is expected to increase coal demand as power plants will need to procure more coal, leading to a potential rise in coal prices [6][29] - The report highlights that the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 2.7% week-on-week but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, with coal prices likely to rise steadily [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed slightly, with a decline of 0.78% compared to a 1.08% drop in the CSI 300 index, outperforming it by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 752 million tons, a 2% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 698 RMB/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week, while the import price index for thermal coal was 944 RMB/ton, up 6.19% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with the main coking coal price at 1830 RMB/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.3 million tons, a 2.1% increase week-on-week but a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory in society was 17.68 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 374,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 873,000 tons [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is set to enhance its coal mining operations in Indonesia, particularly through the TSE coal mine project, which is expected to significantly increase coal production and improve profitability in the coming years [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: TSE Coal Mine Project - The TSE coal mine is located in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, covering an area of 168 square kilometers, with a mining license valid until May 14, 2034, and can be renewed for another ten years [1]. - The project construction is anticipated to commence in the first quarter of 2026, with estimated coal reserves of 378.79 million tons and total resources of 897.14 million tons as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The coal quality at TSE ranges from 4,990 to 6,056 kcal/kg, which is superior to the existing SDE coal mine's quality of approximately 4,500 kcal/kg [1]. Group 2: SDE Coal Mine Performance - In the first half of 2025, the SDE coal mine produced 2.05 million tons of raw coal, a significant increase from 755,000 tons in the same period last year, with a daily production peak of 27,000 tons [2]. - The company plans to enhance its washing capacity by adding new equipment, which is expected to double the production capacity post the commissioning of SDE Phase II in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The company operates five major mining areas in South Kalimantan, establishing a strong foundation for resource value operations [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Pricing - The domestic coal price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to supply constraints from safety inspections and low inventory levels, which are likely to support price increases [3][4]. - The company anticipates that coal prices will rise further if demand exceeds expectations, particularly in the event of a cold winter, potentially leading to peak prices by year-end [4]. - The company projects net profits of 1.6 billion, 6.9 billion, and 11.9 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.8X, 10.7X, and 6.2X [4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter due to supply constraints and rising demand driven by early winter conditions [1] Industry Summary - The coal sector experienced a strong rally on the 5th, with companies like Antai Group and Dayou Energy hitting their daily price limits, and others like Shaanxi Black Cat and Yunmei Energy also showing notable gains [1] - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with these constraints expected to persist into the fourth quarter [1] - Demand has increased due to accelerated cooling in northern regions and early winter stockpiling, with expectations of further replenishment needs as the winter season extends [1] Price Expectations - CITIC Securities forecasts that the average price of port thermal coal in the fourth quarter may rise by over 15% quarter-on-quarter, potentially exceeding 850 yuan per ton [1] - Coking coal prices are also expected to remain high, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 200 yuan per ton [1] - If the enforcement of overproduction checks strengthens, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Investment Recommendations - In the context of improving policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations, the coal sector is anticipated to have a sustained rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - Companies that are "defensive and offensive" leaders in thermal coal should be monitored, along with undervalued firms that exhibit good earnings elasticity [1]

中信证券表示，煤炭板块三季度业绩随煤价回暖而环比提升。四季度在旺季月份及天气因素加持下，煤 价在目前水平上或将进一步上涨；若叠加供给收缩政策执行力度强化，煤价还有望超预期。在政策、煤 价、业绩预期均有改善的背景下，板块四季度反弹具备持续性。一方面建议关注"攻守兼备"的动力煤红 利龙头，另一方面也可关注低估值且业绩弹性好的企业。 三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓，四季度上述约 束供给释放的因素依然维持；需求端，10月份北方降温加快，冬储需求也提前释放，考虑今年北方冬季 持续时间长，后续或有补库需求叠加，12月份供给或再度出现缺口。 ...