国信证券发布研报称，在2025年全年煤炭需求表现平淡的情况下，政策发力调控供给、改善行业供需格 局。2026年动力煤供需两侧均有看点，基本面有望向好，动力煤价预计在650-850元/吨间震荡，中枢位 于750元/吨左右。另预计2026年炼焦煤价格中枢提高100元/吨左右，供应整体仍偏宽，价格窄幅震荡， 阶段性机会仍存。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2026年基本面研判 2025年回顾：供应偏宽，政策兜底 炼焦煤方面：国内资源稀缺、产量增长空间相比动力煤更加有限，但性价比更高的蒙古煤进口量仍有增 长空间，且用煤需求呈下滑趋势。因此，预计炼焦煤供应仍偏宽。但考虑一方面2025年炼焦煤价格探底 时间较久且底部较低，另一方面政策调控生产对炼焦煤影响更大，同时若2026年行业整体基本面向好， 利好炼焦煤价格中枢回升。因此预计2026年炼焦煤价格中枢提高100元/吨左右。 回顾2025年行情，是政策与基本面的博弈，在全年需求表现平淡的情况下，政策发力调控供给、改善行 业供需格局。2025年上半年国内原煤产量保持高位(原煤产量同比+5.4%)、需求疲软(商品煤消费量累计 仅同比+0.4%)、港口库存累积，秦皇岛港5500K煤价 ...

晋控煤业 20260112 摘要 晋控煤业预计 2026 年分红比例维持在 40%-50%，具体方案将在三四 月份讨论决定。公司部分地区已执行发改委新规，采用基准价加浮动价 的月度调价模式，大同塔山地区则沿用原有定价机制。 社联煤矿 800 万吨产能手续已办妥，但受地质构造影响，煤质短期内较 差，发热量低。洗煤厂升级改造预计年底完成，期间低卡煤炭将低价销 售。塔山地区生产稳定，未见显著变化。 集团资产注入因交易所业绩承诺要求过高而暂缓，评估报告和核准备案 已完成。新领导上任或影响决策，公司计划等待碳转采核准后再推进。 山西省国资委或将出台上市公司考核指标，推动资本运作。 晋控煤业尚未确定 2026 年具体产量规划。塔山长协煤供应量稳定，主 要面向电厂。社联长协煤签订量减少至 570 万吨，因去年兑现率低，实 际兑现仅 323 万吨。 发改委对电厂缺乏有效惩戒措施，电厂兑现率低的问题依然存在。山西 省能源工作目标未明确，预计 2026 年煤炭产量略增，超产现象因安全 环保检查力度加大而减少。 Q&A 2025 年第四季度晋控煤业的产销和售价情况如何？ 2025 年第四季度，晋控煤业的产销量基本与去年持平，略有增 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月12日 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 煤炭 · 煤炭 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：刘孟峦 010-88005312 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 证券分析师：胡瑞阳 0755-81982908 huruiyang@guosen.com.cn S0980523060002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 n 2025年回顾：供应偏宽，政策兜底 回顾2025年行情，是政策与基本面的博弈，在全年需求表现平淡的情况下，政策发力调控供给、改善行业供需格局。2025年上半年国内原煤产量保持高位 （原煤产量同比+5.4%）、需求疲软（商品煤消费量累计仅同比+0.4%）、港口库存累积，秦皇岛港5500K煤价从年初的763元/吨一路下跌至6月中下旬的610元 /吨，3月中已跌破长协，与长协最高倒挂60元/吨左右。7-11月进入需求旺季，日耗增加，基本面缓慢修复，7月查超产政策出台，随后供应端明显收缩，市 场信心增加，叠加极端天气影响煤炭生产，煤价超预期上涨。此后，11月召开的保供会议是供应转折点，11月月度原煤 ...

风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 大同证券研究中心 年末供应收缩叠加需求回暖，价格底部区间逐步确认 【2025.12.22-2025.12.28】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.12.30 煤炭行情走势图 动力煤供给收缩需求边际改善，煤价寻底待企稳。动力煤本周 价格延续下行但跌幅收窄，悲观情绪逐步释放；元旦后中东部 低温将推升供暖需求，叠加供给收缩、政策托底预期，煤价有 望止跌企稳。 炼焦煤供需弱平衡，价格稳中有支撑。炼焦煤本周价格保持平 稳，优质煤种涨幅突出；虽短期需求驱动弱，但库存中低位与 供给收缩形成支撑，元旦后冬储补库启动，预计价格窄幅震荡、 稳中有撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭跑输指数。A 股市场放量普涨，日均 成交额 1.95 万亿元，情绪回暖。半导体、化工等板块领涨， 受益于商业航天政策与存储器涨价预期；保险板块涨 2.98%， 险资新规有望带来超 5000 亿元增量资金。ETF ...

摘要 2025 年前 11 个月商品煤销量同比减少，但自产商品煤销量增加。聚烯 烃产量因装置大修同比减少，尿素和甲醇产量及销量均同比增加，主要 受益于去年同期装置大修影响。 预计 12 月份煤化工产品生产保持稳定，前期烯烃装置检修后运营正常， 冬季天气因素影响有限，全年目标有望完成。11 月尿素销量低于产量系 保障其他产品运输，属正常波动。 四季度炼焦煤生产好于三季度，主力矿井恢复正常生产。2026 年商品 煤生产计划已基本制定，预计与 2025 年持平，各主力矿井处于正常生 产周期。 新建矿井投产时间可能推迟，但对 2026 年总产量影响有限。预计 2025 年第四季度生产成本环比可能上升，因安全费、维检费等储备类 项目动用规模较大。 预计 2025 年第四季度生产成本同比下降，降本增效措施显现。煤炭价 格回升若增加利润，可适当减少储备类项目使用，单位吨成本可能上升。 Q&A 2025 年前 11 个月中煤能源的主要生产经营情况如何？ 2025 年前 11 个月，中煤能源持续强化产销协同，不断优化产品结构，合理安 排装置检修，努力稳产增销。具体数据如下：商品煤产量 1.24 亿吨，同比减 少 152 万吨； ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing - Qualification Number: F03097282; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018999 [2] - Contact: TEL 82292661 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints Coking Coal - This week, the second - round price reduction of coke started, and coking coal prices continued to be weak due to the weakening coking profit. Near the end of the year, some coal mines actively reduced production, and some mines had temporary production cuts. Although the local supply decreased this week, the recent increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the decline in demand led to an overall loose supply and downward pressure on prices. The January contract is currently at a large discount to the spot, and considering the high probability of non - standard delivery items, buyers' participation enthusiasm is not high, and short positions are relatively concentrated. It is not advisable to participate in long positions, and short positions can consider taking profits at low prices [6]. Coke - This week, the coke spot market was weak. The second - round price reduction was initiated in areas such as Hebei and Tianjin, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant. Recently, the demand in the coke market has been continuously declining. Under the pressure of blast furnace production cuts, coke enterprises may further seek profits from upstream. The current market sentiment is poor, and prices are under pressure for adjustment. The January contract is currently at a discount to the port wet - basis warehouse receipt price. Due to the continued expectation of price reduction in the market, prices may continue the pattern of volatile adjustment [43]. Summary by Directory Part One: Coking Coal Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1068 yuan/ton (- 49), and that of high - quality coking coal in Anze, Shanxi was 1273 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1255 yuan/ton (- 1). The futures price of the main coking coal contract decreased, with a week - on - week decline of 10.83%, and the JM1 - 5 spread was - 71 (+ 13) yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: In December, more coal mines reduced production, and the local supply continued to decrease. Recent snowfall in the main production areas affected the downstream delivery rhythm, and some coal types temporarily stabilized due to limited resources. The operating rate of coking coal (523 enterprises) was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 750,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3700 tons. In terms of imported seaborne coal, Australian mines continued to control supplies, while overseas terminal demand remained, and coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The forward transaction price of Australian quasi - first - line high - quality coking coal Goonyella rose to about FOB 209.9 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 3.39 US dollars, equivalent to about 1834 yuan/ton at domestic port pick - up prices, and the inversion range with domestic local prices has expanded to over 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Demand**: Terminal hot metal production continued to decline, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke remained under pressure. After two rounds of coke price cuts, there was still an expectation of further cuts, and high - price transactions at mines were still difficult. The clean coal inventory of 523 enterprises monitored by Steel Union was 2.5531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,000 tons [5]. Part Two: Coke Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1576 yuan/ton (- 21), the warehouse receipt price of port dry - quenched coke was 1815 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1850 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main coke contract decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of 6.94%, and the J1 - 5 spread was - 153 yuan/ton (- 4) [41]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The coking operation was at a high level, but in winter, coking was frequently affected by environmental protection. Currently, the production of some coke enterprises in areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan was restricted, and the supply tightened. On the other hand, a few coke enterprises had resumed production after previous maintenance, and production had recovered. Overall, coke supply continued to decline this period, with a limited decline. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 73.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 percentage points. The daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5500 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 466,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]. - **Demand**: Affected by the off - season, demand continued to be weak. Blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline this period. The supply of finished products decreased, and steel mills' enthusiasm for raw material procurement was weak. Downstream steel mills continued to passively accumulate inventory. The daily average hot metal output this period was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons [42]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills monitored by Steel Union was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 87,320 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,880 tons, an increase of 14.2%. The coke inventory at ports was 181,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to stabilize and recover in price due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints as the year-end safety inspections become stricter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In October, electricity consumption exceeded expectations with a growth of 10.4%, while non-electric demand remained weak, leading to a 9.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports [1]. - Domestic coal prices saw fluctuations in November, with a rise followed by a decline, while long-term contract prices were adjusted upwards [1]. - International coal prices, particularly for Australian thermal and coking coal, continued to rise in November [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, and coal imports fell by 12.0% in November [1]. - The global seaborne coal loading volume dropped by 3.6% year-on-year in the first ten months, but demand from emerging markets remained strong [1]. - Seasonal demand is expected to increase from December to January, supporting coal prices as supply remains relatively low due to stricter safety regulations [2]. Group 3: Key Companies - Companies with stable earnings and dividends include China Shenhua (601008.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [3]. - Companies likely to benefit from improved demand expectations and supply reductions include Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) [3]. - Companies with notable long-term growth potential include Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) and China Qinfa (00866) [3].

4、9日长治市场焦炭价格偏弱运行。主流钢厂1日招标，下调焦炭采购价格，焦炭首轮提降落地。湿熄 焦下调幅度50元/吨，干熄焦下调幅度55元/吨。第二轮降价预期较为强烈。整体看，区域内焦炭供应稳 定，厂内多保持低库存状态运行，个别焦企小幅累库。原料端炼焦煤价格震荡走弱，竞拍市场流拍率升 高。焦企采购积极性一般。下游钢厂钢价震荡，利润一般，对焦炭的刚需支撑走弱。短期来看，焦炭市 场偏弱运行为主。现准一干熄焦报1650-1700元/吨，一级湿熄焦报1550元/吨，一级干熄焦报1810-1860 元/吨，均为出厂价现金含税。 | 月立景 | WIysteel.com | | | | | (单位:元/吨) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 指标 | | | 价格 | | 价格属性 | | 唐山当地一级 | A<13.0. S<0. 75. CSR>65.0. MT<0 | | | 1900 | r | 现汇出厂含税 | | 吕梁准一级 A13 | S0.7 | CSR60 MT0 | | 1640 | | 现汇出厂含税 | | 临汾一级 | A12. ...

第三，尿素各个环节库存均处于高位，对价格有一定压制。截至2025年12月3日，中国尿素企业总库存 量129.05万吨，较上周减少7.34万吨，环比减少5.38%。本周期国内尿素企业库存继续下降，近期储备 需求不断补仓以及复合肥工业需求回升，加之部分出口需求推进，尿素企业库存仍处于去库趋势。10月 份至今，因物流发运减少，尿素企业虽有订单待发，但库存逐渐增加。10月之后，中原地区连续降雨， 秋季肥推迟，加之节前下游多适当补仓，市场交易回温缓慢，尿素企业库存整体较10月份之前大幅累 库。目前尿素企业库存总体居历史同期高位，随着国内需求逐渐趋弱，尿素企业检修装置陆续回归，企 业库存将继续累库为主，对价格支撑力度进一步减弱。 当前，尿素期现价格高位坚挺，一方面，国内尿素煤头装置开工率整体高位稳定，但气头装置开始检 修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，供应略有收紧；另一方面，需求稳步提升，中原地区复合肥开始陆续生 产，本月将进行第一轮收单，尿素原料持续采购，同时东北地区持续采购备货，大颗粒价格不断攀升， 淡储企业积极入市拿货进行储备。综合来看，尿素在供应略有收缩而需求提升的背景下，将持续高位坚 挺。 第二，复合肥开工率稳步提 ...

（来源：我的焦炭COKE） 来源：我的焦炭COKE 1、4日吕梁市场冶金焦价格弱稳运行。本周河北、山东主流钢厂下调焦炭采购价格，降幅50-55元/吨， 至此焦炭首轮降价正式落地执行，执行时间12月1日零点。市场方面，近期原料端焦煤价格陆续回调， 区域内焦企利润明显改善，整体开工高稳，焦炭供应明显宽松。然市场下行周期下，下游拿货积极性受 挫，部分焦企厂区焦炭库存少量堆积。下游方面，铁水产量降幅扩大，多数钢厂补库节奏维持谨慎按需 采购，并且钢厂检修计划持续发布，叠加焦煤成本持续走弱，钢厂打压原料意愿不减，短期内焦炭价格 偏弱运行，后期需持续关注焦煤走势、钢材价格走势与钢厂盈利状况及期货盘面走势对焦炭价格的影 响。价格方面：准一级干熄冶金焦报1630-1645元/吨，一级干熄冶金焦报1740-1750元/吨，均出厂价现 金含税。 2、4日临汾市场焦炭价格暂稳运行。1日河北等地主流钢厂对焦炭价格招标下调，降幅为50-55元/吨，1 日起执行，焦炭首轮提降落地。临汾地区焦企大多保持正常生产节奏，发运基本正常，到货情况良好， 大多焦化厂内焦炭库存保持低位运行，整体盈利一般；下游方面，钢材市场逐渐走弱，对焦炭需求一 般，大 ...