广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 6月CPI同比0.1%，高于前值的-0.1%。PPI同比-3.6%，低于前值的-3.3%。按照CPI、PPI分别 60%、40%粗略模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，持平于5月，继续处于2024年2月以来低点（图1）。 第二， CPI数据符合预期，在6月底周报中我们根据高频数据测算CPI同比0.14%；PPI同比则明显低于我们 当时测算的-3.0%的预期。6月PPI有基数优势，翘尾回升0.2%；同比却较高频数据继续下探，背后可能一是 高频数据对统计数据的表征有偏差；二是有高频数据不易捕捉的中游和下游行业价格弱势。 第三， 从数据来看确实如此，6月PPI煤炭加工价格环比-5.5%、煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比-3.4%、黑色金 属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比-1.8%，均弱于高频数据的焦煤、动力煤、螺纹钢价格表现，原因可能是煤价 是最后一周反弹（图2），而统计采样前三周更为关键；同时钢铁现货价格弱于期货也导致高频数据存在一定 偏差。 第四， 同时中下游制造行业也确实有一些价格异动，PPI耐用消费品分项环比从0.1%回落至-0.1%，其中计 算机通信 ...

Group 1 - The 618 shopping festival this year set a record with the longest promotional period and received positive feedback, reflecting consumer expectations for e-commerce platforms and promotional ecosystems [1] - The complexity of past e-commerce promotions, including various discount rules and conditions, led to consumer frustration and anxiety, as they often spent significant time trying to understand the rules without achieving substantial savings [1] - This year, platforms simplified rules, offering direct discounts and easy access to large coupons, which reduced decision-making time and shopping cart abandonment rates, allowing consumers to enjoy the convenience of technology [1] Group 2 - The transformation in promotional strategies is reshaping the entire e-commerce ecosystem, as reduced reliance on complex rules changes the competitive logic within the industry [2] - A focus on sincerity and quality over complicated promotional tactics is essential for gaining consumer trust and loyalty, leading to sustainable business success [2] - The shift reflects the maturity of the digital economy, where e-commerce platforms must transition from "traffic thinking" to "retention thinking" to create lasting value for users [2]

"6·18"尾声，京东、天猫等平台，小米、海尔等品牌，纷纷亮出破纪录战绩。 如何走出促销，如何历久弥新，一直是"6·18"和"双11"被审视的要点。关乎存续的必要性，关乎企业竞 争力，也关乎消费活力。 在史上最长的这个促销节，一些新气象、新趋势比数据竞赛珍贵：规则简化、国补助力、主播转型、外 卖（即时零售）加入……在近40天时间的维度，消费者拥有理性的决策空间。 对于企业而言，"6·18"依然是场大考，既要保留竞争活力，又要超越数字内卷。 天猫取消了长期沿用的"满减凑单"，改为更直接清晰的"官方立减"；抖音电商大促的主要规则改为"立 减折扣""一件直降"；京东首次打通国家补贴、百亿补贴与平台专享价。 消费者不必再头疼复杂的优惠计算题，也不必为跨店凑单奔波，加上现货和保价的护航，规则简化反而 促成理性消费，也并未影响企业和品牌屡创佳绩。 几个月前开打的外卖大战，摈弃低质量内卷，需要"6·18"这样的集中练兵。现货取代预售，是带有历史 印记的传统电商促销的进步；即时零售"30分钟送达"，无疑代表了更强诉求的消费浪潮。在"即时满 足"与"成本控制"间寻找均衡点，消费者要优惠和体验，平台和商家获得信任增值。 大主播的 ...

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has intensified competition among e-commerce platforms, particularly for Apple products, making it an ideal time for consumers to purchase iPhones [1] - JD.com has emerged as the most cost-effective option for consumers, leveraging nationwide consumption vouchers to enhance its pricing strategy [3][8] Pricing Strategies - The iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB) originally priced at ¥9999 is available for ¥7999 on both Meituan and Tmall, with various discounts applied [1] - JD.com offers an additional discount of ¥1400 and allows the use of a 200 yuan consumption voucher, bringing the price down to ¥7799, which is lower than the competitors [3] Promotions and Discounts - JD.com has introduced a unique nationwide consumption voucher program, with values ranging from ¥100 to ¥500, which can be applied to the purchase of the iPhone 16 Pro Max, resulting in a final price of ¥7799 or even lower [3][8] - The Apple Watch Series 10 is also competitively priced, with JD.com offering a final price of ¥1996.65 after applying the national subsidy, while Tmall does not provide this subsidy for users in Beijing [6] Consumer Benefits - The combination of JD.com's exclusive vouchers and broader national subsidy policies provides significant savings for consumers, making it a preferred platform for purchasing Apple products during the 618 festival [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant discounts and promotional activities during the final 28 hours of the 2025 JD 618 shopping festival, emphasizing the largest subsidy offerings and price reductions for consumers [1][4]. Subsidy and Discounts - Consumers can receive subsidies exceeding 6180 yuan per person per day, with various categories including electronics, home appliances, and more, allowing discounts as low as 40% [4][5]. - JD is providing a total value of over 3000 yuan in super subsidy coupon packages for PLUS members, which can be combined with national subsidies and other coupons for additional savings [4][5]. Promotional Activities - The JD 618 event features multiple promotional channels, including "1 yuan flash sales" and "true 50% off" deals, with products available at discounts as steep as 20% [4][5]. - The "JD Super Takeout Day" on June 18 will continue to offer substantial discounts, with reductions up to 61.8 yuan [4]. Entertainment and Engagement - The "JD 618 Happy Night" event, co-hosted with Hunan TV and Mango TV, features numerous celebrities and interactive games, allowing consumers to win prizes and engage with the brand [6][7]. - During the event, consumers can participate in a "shake to win" game on the JD app for a chance to win up to 2025 yuan in red envelopes and various physical prizes [7].

随着飞天茅台价格的走低，贵州茅台（600519.SH）的股价也随之调整，即将跌破1400元的关口。 6月16日，贵州茅台低开，盘中最低报1401.18元/股，上次触及该价还是今年的2月6日，当时最低价为1400.01元。截至收盘，茅台报1422.29 元/股。 值得一提的是，1个月前贵州茅台的股价超1600元，如今跌幅已超10%，蒸发的市值则超2500亿元。 茅台酒价格月内跌百元 据酒业数据平台今日酒价的报价，5月16日，25年飞天茅台（53度/500ml，下同）散瓶价报2080元/瓶，原箱报2170元/瓶。 | | 茅台飞天 | 2025年5月16日 (公众号:今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 2190 | 2170 ↓ | | 2 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 2100 | 2080 ↓ | 到了6月16日，散瓶价报1930元/瓶，原箱报1960元/瓶。据此计算，1个月内分别跌了7.21%、10.71%。 | | 茅台飞天 | 2025年6月16日 ...

Core Insights - JD.com is actively promoting its home goods section during the 618 shopping festival, offering significant discounts and a variety of products to meet consumer needs for summer home refreshment [1][8] - The campaign features collaborations with well-known brands, providing consumers with high-quality home essentials at competitive prices [1][2] Group 1: Promotions and Discounts - JD.com is offering discounts such as 50% off on home textiles and an additional 15% off on daily necessities through national subsidies [1] - Specific products highlighted include the J.Dear summer quilt priced at 185 yuan after discount, and the dual-sided cooling quilt from 富安娜 at 179 yuan [1][2] - Other promotional items include a 55-liter storage box from 禧天龙 available for 69 yuan and various home decor items at reduced prices [4][5] Group 2: Product Offerings - The summer product lineup includes high-quality cooling quilts, bedding sets, and various home decor items designed to enhance comfort during hot weather [1][2][4] - Featured products also include a multi-functional mobile storage rack from 网易严选, originally priced at 389 yuan, now available for 194 yuan [5] - Cultural and creative products are also highlighted, such as the 千里江山小夜灯, which combines practicality with cultural significance, priced at 136 yuan after discounts [6] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Consumers are encouraged to explore the home goods section via the JD.com app, emphasizing the ease of finding quality products at attractive prices [8] - The marketing strategy focuses on creating a comfortable and aesthetically pleasing home environment, appealing to consumer desires for a refreshing summer experience [1][4]

近日，全国各地高考陆续落下帷幕，高考考后消费迎来高峰，手机、电脑、平板等电子三件套销量 爆发。 (责任编辑：何欣) 天猫618期间，淘宝天猫联合苹果、华为、小米、vivo、OPPO、荣耀、联想、华硕、索尼等70多家 家头部3C数码品牌，针对准大学生和在校大学生们推出专属福利。6月9日至20日，消费者打开淘宝搜 「数码教育优惠」即可直达专区。 (责任编辑：张晓波 ) 据页面显示，该专区包含2025届高考生、在校大学生等两种教育优惠认证，覆盖MacBook、 AirPods、iPad等Apple教育优惠商品和非Apple商品。叠加立减85折、国补、大额券、以及学生专享价等 多重优惠后迎来特价，至高立减4000元。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 以ROG 枪神9游戏电脑为例，原价14999元起，店铺满减2000元，学生专享50元，限时补贴400元、 88VIP消费券500元，国家补贴2000元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, with a decline of over 10% compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai reached 2020 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 2080 yuan for boxed bottles [2]. - The retail price in some Beijing stores is around 2100-2300 yuan per bottle, with indications that prices may rise slightly after mid-July due to seasonal demand [2]. - The recovery price for loose bottles has fallen below 2000 yuan, reaching 1970 yuan, marking a historical low [6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the end of the peak consumption season around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a seasonal downturn in white liquor sales [6][7]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly during the "6·18" sales event, have further pressured prices, with some platforms offering Moutai at prices as low as 1499 yuan [7][8]. Supply Chain and Distribution - Moutai has increased the distribution of non-standard products, which has affected the demand for Feitian Moutai, contributing to the price drop [8]. - The company has implemented measures to control supply, including halting direct sales of 500ml Feitian Moutai and freezing a portion of inventory to stabilize prices [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai plans to adjust its product structure across various sales channels to enhance consumer reach and improve operational capabilities [9]. - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences by exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional gifting and dining occasions [9].

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