糖价走势

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基本面无明显变化 短期白糖被动跟随原糖为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-27 08:12
消息面 巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB表示,2025/26榨季巴西糖产量预计为4450万吨,今年4月 份调查预计为4590万吨。2025/26榨季巴西甘蔗产量预计为6.688亿吨,今年4月份调查预计为6.634亿 吨。 据外媒报道,欧洲贸易商表示,巴基斯坦国家贸易机构TCP在上周结束的20万吨国际白糖招标中初步购 买了3万吨白糖。 8月26日,郑商所白糖期货仓单15316张,环比上个交易日减少70张。 申银万国期货: 国际方面,全球糖市随着巴西新糖供应增加、即将进入累库阶段,不过考虑到已有所计价,预计原糖短 期维持震荡走势。反观国内市场,国产糖产销率维持偏高,食糖库存偏低,对糖价有所支撑。进口端加 工糖压力集中释放,或对糖价有所拖累,短期郑糖被动跟随原糖为主,维持震荡走势。 建信期货: 今日郑糖01午后意外大跌,盘中资金打压导致价格下行,基本面上并无明显变化。后期进口糖的压力会 逐渐放大,抑制国内糖价。 机构观点 ...
白糖日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:42
行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | | | 表1:期货行情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 收盘价(元/吨 美分/磅) 涨跌 涨跌幅 持仓量(张) ...
白糖日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 14:44
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: 1、沐甜:白糖南部区域报价上调为主,成交一般。广西:南宁中间商站台报价 6000 元/ 吨,报价上调 10 元,成交一般;南宁仓库报价 5970 元/吨,报价上调 10 元,成交一般。柳州 中间商站台报价 6030 元/吨,仓库报价 5980-6000 元/吨,报价上调 20 元,成交一般。广东: 广州中间商湛江糖报价 6070 元/吨,报价不变,成交一般。湛江中间商仓库报价暂无。 2、康师傅上半年营收超 400 亿元,净利增两成。从饮品细分表现来看,"碳酸及其他" 是饮品业务中实现同比增长的品类,该品类上半年收入同比增长 6.3%至 103.56 亿元。 3、美国农业部(USDA)预计,美国 2025/26 年度(10 月开始)糖产量将达到创纪录的 942 万吨,甜菜糖和蔗糖产量预估双双被上修。美国农业部将甜菜糖产量预估从上个月的 509 万 吨 ...
白糖数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:47
投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 月需重点关注巴西压榨进度、进口到港节奏及政策调控力度,中长期全球过剩基调下,糖价上行空间有限,建议以区间震 结 荡思路应对。 国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 - 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------- 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 23/24 24/25 800 2400 -- 2022 2023 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 2月 11月 5月 10月 1月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ==== SR2109 ------ SR2009 SR2109-SR2201 -- SR2209-SR2301 ---- SR2309-SR2401 600 1200 -- SR2309 SR2409 SR2509 SR2209 ...
国内的产销数据非常好 预计糖价支撑很强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-06 06:04
Market Overview - As of August 5, the profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1839 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 642 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - The profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1792 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 582 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar producers, reported a significant decline in quarterly profits due to low sugar prices impacting its core business and increased competition in its ethanol business due to a weaker dollar [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region for the 25/26 season is expected to decrease year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in June, while sugar production in India and Thailand is projected to increase [2] - Domestic sugar sales data is strong, with sugar inventory in Guangxi estimated at around 800,000 tons [2] - There is uncertainty regarding future import levels, with expectations of 750,000 tons imported in July, followed by a gradual decrease in August, which may alleviate import pressure [2] Price Trends and Recommendations - Recent rapid adjustments in Zhengzhou sugar prices are primarily influenced by overall market corrections, but the current season is entering a consumption peak, suggesting strong cost support for domestic sugar prices [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on stabilization, with a reference support level for Zhengzhou sugar at 5500 CNY/ton [2] - International oil prices have declined, influenced by increased OPEC+ supply and concerns over weak global demand, which has led to a weak performance in Zhengzhou sugar futures [3] - The market lacks new fundamental themes, with attention on support around 5600 CNY/ton, and short-term trading is recommended [3]
加工糖接力国产糖供应,郑糖偏强震荡
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 23:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's total sugar production may be adjusted downward due to lower yields and a historically high sugar - to - cane ratio. Asian producers, especially India, have optimistic production estimates. With potential increased sucrose use by Coca - Cola and PepsiCo and procurement demand from countries like Pakistan, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely between 16 - 18 cents per pound [2][20]. - Domestic sugar market: The sales of domestic sugar are progressing ahead of schedule, imports have increased significantly, and processed sugar has been put on the market in large quantities with stable prices. The cost of some previously priced raw sugar is similar to that of domestic sugar, so the market pressure is limited. The domestic market has achieved a relay supply pattern between domestic and processed sugar. The upside of sugar prices later depends on consumption, with an expected operating range of 5700 - 6000 yuan per ton [2][20][22]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou sugar futures trended higher with high basis and a shift from net short to net long positions in the main contracts, supported by fast sales and capital inflows. International sugar prices oscillated at low levels, rebounding after falling below 16 cents per pound but then being pressured by India's abundant supply expectations and dropping again [4]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: In the second half of June, the sugar - to - cane ratio in South Brazil reached a record high of 53.15%, with a cumulative ratio of 51.02%, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year. However, due to weather, the cane crushing volume was low. Considering the relatively low cane yield and sugar content and limited room for further increase in the sugar - to - cane ratio, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production may be reduced [6]. - **India**: Ample rainfall has led to high expectations for a large sugar harvest in the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts India's sugar production will reach 35 million tons. As of mid - July 2025, India's sugar exports were 65 - 70 million tons, and the ISMA expects 80 million tons by the end of August, with 20 million tons of the quota unexported. The sugar industry requests an extension of the export license to December 31. If the harvest is good, India could export 100 - 150 million tons in the new year [9]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales progress**: In June, Guangxi sold 495.3 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 77.3 thousand tons year - on - year, with an industrial inventory of 1.3244 million tons, a decrease of 330.8 thousand tons. Yunnan sold 195.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 66 thousand tons, with an industrial inventory of 667.6 thousand tons, an increase of 68.5 thousand tons. Some sugar mills in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the overall sales are ahead. Yunnan's inventory reduction is slower but is expected to improve in July [11][12]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 420 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 390 thousand tons year - on - year, the highest in the past decade. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons year - on - year. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import was 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons. Brazil accounted for 76% of raw sugar imports in the first half of 2025, and about one million tons of imported sugar are expected later. In June, the total import of syrups and sugar - containing premixes under certain tax codes was 115.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 103.2 thousand tons year - on - year. The import of 1702 - item syrups is shrinking, but Thai - flavored syrups and premixes show signs of growth [15][18].
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 09:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International sugar market has a supply - side overhang due to favorable supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season, which keeps the raw sugar market price under pressure. In the domestic market, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign price strengths. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure has been released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry has inventory replenishment needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is rising, domestic futures price performance is stronger than the overseas market, with multiple factors at play, and the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to keep an eye on arrivals at ports and summer consumption, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 342,009 lots, an increase of 9,969 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 20,940, down 158. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,187 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,520 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,743 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. Brazil's total sugar exports are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,480 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 275 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.79%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.79%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 4.62%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.92%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center reported that the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central - southern region declined in June. On Wednesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.06%, while the domestic sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.69%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is favorable, and the expectation of oversupply has been weighing on the raw sugar market price [2].
国际糖价承压运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-23 22:34
Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in production, import volumes, and international market conditions, with a potential rebound in the second half of 2025 depending on import dynamics and global supply factors [1][35]. Domestic Market Situation - Sugar production for the 2024/2025 season reached 11.1621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% [4]. - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. - The sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The sugar import volume in May 2025 was 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 33,000 tons year-on-year [7]. - Industrial sugar inventory as of May 2025 was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 32.21% year-on-year, indicating lower sales pressure for sugar factories [12]. International Market Situation - Global sugar production is projected to increase from 180.75 million tons in 2024/2025 to 189.31 million tons in 2025/2026, a growth of 4.73% [26]. - The USDA forecasts a total global sugar demand of 177.92 million tons for 2025/2026, up 1.4% from the previous year [26]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to be affected by adverse weather conditions, with a significant decrease in sugar output anticipated [28]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with estimates ranging from 31.6 million to 35 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [31]. Summary of Market Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance in the domestic market appears loose, with projected sugar production of 11.16 million tons and imports of 5 million tons against a consumption of 15.8 million tons [35]. - The import pace in the second half of the year will be crucial for determining sugar price trends, with expectations of reaching 2.4 million tons from June to September [35].
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250723
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 09:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]
国内产销情况仍旧不错 预计糖价或偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-17 07:16
Industry Overview - As of the end of June, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 first quarter (April to June) was reported at 12.249 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [1] - The domestic sugar supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 season remains consistent, with an expected slight increase in production to 11.2 million tons [1] Market Insights - According to Minmetals Futures, the domestic market is currently experiencing the best import profit window in the last five years, with potential increased import pressure in the second half of the year [2] - The current valuation of Zheng sugar's September contract is relatively high compared to other contracts, with a likelihood of continued price decline unless there is a significant rebound in external prices [2] Production and Pricing Trends - Hualian Futures reported that due to continuous rainfall, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June was 4.424 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production down 9.8% to 2.95 million tons [3] - Domestic sugar production and sales are progressing rapidly, with industrial inventory at historically low levels, supporting relatively strong spot prices [3] - The traditional consumption peak in the third quarter may lead to tight local inventory conditions in October, suggesting a potential upward trend in sugar prices [3]