Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Chinese yuan's strength and the resulting increase in foreign exchange settlement surplus in September 2025, indicating a positive sentiment towards RMB assets and a stable foreign exchange market [1][2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Its Effects - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1]. - This rate cut has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policies and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the RMB [1][2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate and Settlement Surplus - On October 30, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached 7.0955, the strongest level since November 4, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the critical 7.1 mark in October [1][6]. - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly up from $14.6 billion in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [5][6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Settlement Surplus - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the RMB leading to increased settlement demand and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has expanded the trade surplus [2][6][9]. - The total value of China's imports and exports in September was $566.68 billion, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion, supporting the settlement surplus [9]. Group 4: Corporate Behavior and Market Sentiment - There has been a notable increase in corporate willingness to settle in RMB, driven by the stable currency value and the desire to lock in profits amid a weakening dollar [6][11]. - The data indicates that banks' customer settlement in September was $258 billion, a significant increase, while customer sales were $206.2 billion, reflecting active trading behavior [9][10]. Group 5: Divergence in Foreign Payments - In September, there was a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB, contrasting with the settlement surplus, indicating different influences on these metrics [13][14]. - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion RMB in September, contributed to this divergence, as it affected the overall foreign payment balance [14].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, which has contributed to a weaker US dollar and a stronger Chinese yuan [1] - The yuan's midpoint rate has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important 7.1 level in October, leading to increased demand for yuan settlement [1][3] - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in the settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the yuan and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [1][4] - The data indicates that in September, banks' customer settlement increased to $25.8 billion, a rise of $54.8 billion month-on-month, while customer sales rose to $20.6 billion, an increase of $17.5 billion [4] - The overall settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for yuan assets among market participants, driven by the favorable valuation and growth potential of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 3 - In September, China's total import and export value reached $566.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion providing crucial support for the settlement surplus [6] - The divergence between foreign exchange receipts and payments indicates a shift, with a recorded deficit of 22 billion yuan in September, influenced by seasonal factors and increased foreign investment [7][8] - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion yuan in September, has contributed to the deficit in foreign exchange payments, despite a growing surplus in trade [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policy and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Capital Flows - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important threshold of 7.1 [1] - In September 2025, the monthly settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] - The increase in settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for RMB assets among market participants, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Settlement Data - In September 2025, banks settled 188.09 billion RMB and sold 151.83 billion RMB, with a cumulative settlement of 13.27 trillion RMB and sales of 12.83 trillion RMB from January to September [2] - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, providing significant support for the settlement surplus [5] - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to both the stability of the RMB and the acceleration of export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [3][5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets have increased, reflecting a positive outlook on RMB assets, with net inflows of $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1] - The rise in settlement surplus indicates that market participants are optimistic about the RMB's future performance, suggesting a balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [6] - The increase in domestic outward investment has led to a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB in September, indicating active cross-border capital flows [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in China's foreign exchange settlement and sales data for September, which reached a surplus of 51.1 billion USD, the highest since January 2021, indicating a growing confidence in RMB assets and a potential bullish trend in the A-share market [3][12][16]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Data - In September, the foreign exchange settlement surplus reached 51.1 billion USD, contributing to a total surplus of 63.2 billion USD from January to September [3][4]. - The increase in surplus suggests that more foreign exchange is flowing back into China, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards RMB assets [7][12]. Group 2: Reasons for Surplus - The surplus can be attributed to two main factors: foreign capital flowing into the Chinese market and domestic entities converting their foreign currency into RMB due to expectations of RMB appreciation [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September have led to expectations of a weaker USD, prompting investors to prefer holding RMB [9][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The strong performance of the A-share market has encouraged investors to seek higher returns in domestic equities rather than holding USD in fixed deposits [10][12]. - Historical trends show that when the domestic stock and real estate markets perform well, there is a tendency for increased RMB holdings, leading to improved settlement and sales data [11][12]. Group 4: Capital Inflow - In the first three quarters of the year, China's cross-border capital showed a net inflow of 119.7 billion USD, indicating strong international interest in the Chinese market [13][14]. - The current liquidity situation in the A-share market has improved, attracting both domestic and foreign capital, which is expected to lead to a prolonged bullish market trend [15][16].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the foreign exchange settlement surplus in September, reaching $51.1 billion, the highest since January 2021 [3][4]. - The total surplus for the first nine months of the year is $63.2 billion, indicating that September alone contributed a substantial portion to this figure [3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Settlement Data - The September foreign exchange settlement data shows a surplus, indicating that the inflow of foreign currency into banks exceeded the outflow [7]. - The increase in surplus can be attributed to two main factors: foreign capital flowing into the Chinese market and domestic entities converting foreign currency into RMB due to expectations of RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The decline in the willingness to hold USD is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which suggest a long-term weakening of the dollar [9]. - In contrast, the RMB is expected to appreciate over the next year, prompting investors to prefer holding RMB over USD [10]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has led investors to seek higher returns in domestic equities rather than keeping funds in USD-denominated accounts [10]. Group 3: Implications for Capital Markets - Historical patterns indicate that when domestic markets perform well or when there is an expectation of RMB appreciation, there is a tendency for increased holding of RMB, leading to favorable settlement data [12]. - The September surplus of $51.1 billion signals growing confidence in RMB assets from both domestic and foreign investors [12][14]. - The overall net inflow of cross-border capital for the first three quarters of the year reached $119.7 billion, further demonstrating the attractiveness of the Chinese market to international funds [13][14]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The influx of capital into the A-share market suggests a potential long-term bullish trend for the market [15][16]. - The article implies that the current liquidity situation in the A-share market has improved, making it more appealing to both domestic and foreign investors [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

中国企业正以五年来最快速度卖出美元。 国家外汇管理局10月22日公布的数据显示，9月份银行结售汇顺差达510亿美元，创2020年12月以来最大规模。这反映出在人民币 升值预期增强背景下，市场主体外汇结汇意愿显著上升。 外汇局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示，9月份我国外汇市场供求较为平衡，银行代客结汇和售汇环比均明显增长。其中上中旬净结 汇较多，下旬结售汇差额趋向均衡。10月份以来银行代客结汇和售汇大体相当，外汇市场供求基本平衡。 分析指出，这一数据显示出市场对人民币的乐观情绪正在上升。9月份离岸人民币触及去年11月以来最强水平，出口企业加速结汇 可能为人民币提供进一步支撑。 结售汇顺差创近五年新高 国家外汇管理公布的数据显示，按美元计值，2025年9月份，银行结汇2647亿美元，售汇2136亿美元，形成510亿美元的结售汇顺 差。这是自2020年12月以来的最大单月顺差规模。 2025年1月份至9月份，银行累计结汇18533亿美元，累计售汇17901亿美元，累计顺差达632亿美元，高于上年同期水平。 数据还显示，按美元计值，2025年9月份，银行代客涉外收入6812亿美元，对外付款6843亿美元。2025年1月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is showing signs of stability and balance, with significant data indicating a surplus in both bank settlement and foreign exchange transactions for August 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bank Settlement and Foreign Exchange Data - In August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 1.51 trillion yuan, with sales reaching 1.41 trillion yuan, resulting in a surplus [1]. - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, banks settled 11.39 trillion yuan and sold 11.31 trillion yuan, indicating a consistent surplus in bank settlement [1]. - The foreign exchange transactions in August, when converted to USD, showed settlements of 211.8 billion and sales of 197.1 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.59 trillion and 1.58 trillion USD respectively for the first eight months [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Transactions - In August, the foreign exchange income from clients was 4.55 trillion yuan, while payments were 4.53 trillion yuan, also reflecting a surplus [1]. - For the first eight months, the cumulative foreign exchange income was 37.22 trillion yuan, with payments at 36.34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive balance [1]. - The non-bank sector's cross-border receipts reached 1.3 trillion USD in August, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, with both current and capital account transactions growing [2]. Group 3: Market Activity and Trends - The foreign exchange market is described as active, with a net inflow of 3.2 billion USD in August and a bank settlement surplus of 14.6 billion USD [2]. - The Shanghai region led in bank settlement with 42.6 billion USD in settlements and 50.9 billion USD in sales for August [3]. - The securities investment project recorded a settlement surplus of 4.6 billion USD in August, reversing a previous deficit, closely linked to the strong performance of the A-share market [5]. Group 4: Trade and Consumption - China's total goods trade value for the first eight months of 2025 reached 29.57 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year growth [4]. - The increase in inbound consumption is supported by policies aimed at attracting more foreign visitors, with a notable rise in the number of foreign nationals entering China [6]. - The implementation of new policies to enhance service consumption is expected to further boost inbound spending and improve the foreign exchange surplus [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weak USD index, strong domestic equity market performance, and favorable monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, particularly the indication of a potential rate cut in September, has significantly impacted the currency market, leading to a nearly 10% decline in the USD index since the beginning of the year [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is partly due to the accelerated rise in the RMB/USD central parity rate, with the central bank recently issuing 45 billion yuan in offshore RMB central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity [3][4]. Internal Factors - The recovery of China's capital market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, with significant increases in major stock indices: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% in August [4]. - Continuous expansion of the trade surplus in recent months has provided real demand-side support for the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing improvement in China's economic fundamentals, driven by structural transformation and supportive policies, is expected to provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely maintain a steady trend, with expectations of a gradual convergence of onshore, offshore, and central parity rates [5].

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stability despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1][2] Group 1: Exchange Settlement and Sales - In July, banks settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, resulting in a surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - For the first seven months of the year, cumulative bank settlements reached 1.3768 trillion USD, while cumulative sales totaled 1.3793 trillion USD, indicating a continued surplus trend [1] - The exchange rates for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates and stable sales rates, reflecting stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors remained at historically high levels, with a near balance in receipts and payments [1] - Net inflows from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level of activity [1] - Outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend distributions [1]