纯苯，苯乙烯周报2025/12/31 作者：汤剑林 | 从业资格证号：F03117796 | 审核:李文涛 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 | 交易咨询证号:Z0015640 | | 研究联系方式：yujie@zjtfqh.com | 研究助理：虞杰 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 从业资格证号： F03144196 | 利好因素发酵 观点小结 纯苯 定性 解析 核心观点 中性 上周纯苯供应持稳，供应端无明显变化，主要变化在于下游需求，苯乙烯下游有装置出现意外检修，纯苯需求减少。己内酰胺 由于减产，利润有较大修复，同时下游PA6开工率下降明显，预计己内酰胺负荷不会大幅提升。当前纯苯港口库存高达30万吨， 位于历史顶点位置，但当前估值偏低，弱现实下纯苯驱动较差，短期内估值难以修复。 总结和展望：上周苯乙烯带动纯苯价格上涨，纯苯当前基本面压力仍然较大，未来短期内基本面仍然不乐观，关注纯苯下游在 利润修复较多下提前重启的可能。 | 纯苯供应 | 中性 | 开工率变化不大，现实供应较多。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯需求 | 偏空 | 下游 ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/12 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华 南 丙烷CIF日本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2025/12/05 4470 4411 4500 595 552 503 4470 7150 -36 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly, while the PG main contract fluctuated upward. With no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. However, propane is still greatly affected by Sino - US tariff policies, so cautious participation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: Civil LPG prices in some regions showed small rebounds in decline. In the East China region, the price was 4285 (+11), in Shandong it was 4280 (+10), and in South China it was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4370 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The daily spread was 27 (+69), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 82 (-5). The CP official price was announced slightly higher than expected, with propane and butane at 475 (-20) and 460 (-15) respectively. The FEI price increased to 513.62 (+1.62) dollars/ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The domestic civil LPG price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable product was East China civil LPG at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). The number of warehouse receipts was 2416 lots, with 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market price increased significantly [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Month Spreads**: The basis was - 69 (-49), the 11 - 12 month spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 113 (-1) [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows and Spreads**: The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPI spread narrowed but the switching window was still open. The latest value was - 82.5 (-11.5). The PG - CP spread was 114 (-17); the PG - FEI spread was 79 (-33). The FEI - CP spread was 35 (+15) [1]. Industry Conditions - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The profit of PDH decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [1]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventories and factory warehouses decreased. Chemical demand provided support, and the expectation of combustion demand improved [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis is -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread is 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread is 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong is at 4360 (+160), and South China is at 4405 (-55). [4] - Outer - market prices have risen sharply; FEI spread is -6.25 USD (+3.75), CP spread is -8 USD (-4). PG - CP reaches 114 (-17); PG - FEI reaches 79 (-33). FEI - CP reaches 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open. [4] - PDH profit declines. Arrivals are at a low level, external supply decreases, and both port and factory inventories have decreased; chemical demand provides support, and the expectation of combustion demand is warming up. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the decline of civil gas continued. East China was at 4274 (+0), Shandong at 4270 (+10), and South China at 4400 (+0). Ether - post carbon four was at 4370 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -109 (-27), the 11 - 12 spread of 74 (+15), and the 12 - 01 spread of 87 (-17). FEI and CP increased to 512 (+11) and 466 (+4) USD/ton respectively. [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis, spreads, domestic civil gas prices, outer - market prices, spreads between different benchmarks, and the status of arbitrage windows have changed as described above. [4] - PDH operating rate is 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II has shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4] - Overall, with no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy. [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). With no pressure on inventory and an increase in downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended. [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Monday, the decline of civil gas continued. In East China, it was 4282 (+3), in Shandong 4270 (-90), and in South China 4410 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4430 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -83 (-14), the 11 - 12 spread was 80 (-10), and the 12 - 01 spread was 106 (+1). FEI and CP increased to 495 (+3) and 458 (+4) dollars/ton respectively. [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market prices rose sharply. The FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17), PG - FEI reached 79 (-33), and FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). PDH profit decreased. The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. Supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of a recovery in combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas. The warehouse receipt was 2416 lots. The overseas price soared. The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. With chemical demand support and the expectation of warming combustion demand, it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, civil gas continued to rebound slightly. East China was 4279 (+12), Shandong was 4360 (+20), and South China was 4405 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 94 (-45), and the November - December spread was 68 (-52). FEI and CP increased, reaching 492 (+6) and 455 (+1) US dollars per ton respectively [4] 3.2 Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 69 (-49), the November - December spread was 90 (-47), and the December - January spread was 113 (-1). The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas price soared; the FEI monthly spread was - 6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17); PG - FEI reached 79 (-33). FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased; supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of warming combustion demand. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume. Overall, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase [4]