1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 13,300 - 14,200 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the 03 - 04 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,580 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 480 lots; the main contract position is 41,399 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,769 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 53,523 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,723 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 139,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, a six - month high, and the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, a one - year low [2] - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. Domestic nickel - iron plants' raw material inventories are tightening; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and nickel - iron production will face production cut pressure [2] 3.7 Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the nickel - iron price has risen, and the cost - end support has shifted upward. Moreover, there are more steel mill overhauls at the end of the year, and the output increase is relatively limited [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, but the stainless steel export volume still maintains high growth, indicating strong export demand resilience. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall trading atmosphere tends to be calm, and traders mainly focus on delivering pre - holiday processing orders. The overall resource consumption speed slows down, and the national stainless steel social inventory enters seasonal accumulation [2] 3.8 Technical Aspect - The position has decreased and the price has adjusted, and both long and short sides are trading cautiously [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas market supply concerns are prominent, and the strength of energy products supports chemical prices. The Indonesian government's proposed production - cut plan has led to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners, with the production quota for major miners last month down 40% - 70% from 2025, causing coal prices to rise. European natural gas inventories are at a low level, and crude oil prices were affected by concerns over the possible cancellation of US - Iran negotiations. Overall, overseas factors have supported the chemical industry [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of geopolitical premium fluctuations with inventory pressure and oversupply. Strong expectations support pure benzene and styrene. PVC may show a pattern of rising first and then falling, with an overall oscillatory trend [3]. - The outlook for the chemical industry is to be treated with an oscillatory mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - **Market News**: On the week of January 30, US gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels. The refinery capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. US - Iran nuclear negotiations are scheduled for Friday in Oman [8]. - **Main Logic**: US crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cold wave's impact was evident. Geopolitical situations continuously disrupt oil prices. The geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to fluctuate due to factors from Russia and Iran. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The fundamentals are in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical situations may cause frequent potential disruptions to supply expectations, and the geopolitical premium may still fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The disturbance of asphalt raw material supply is expected to ease. - **Main Logic**: Trump's dialogue with Iran and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will lead to an abundant supply of asphalt raw materials in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: US assistance to Venezuela's oil production may lead to a surge in heavy - oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation affect fuel oil export expectations and may lead to an increase in fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by natural gas price fluctuations. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. Although it is affected by negative factors, its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating, and the commodity market is slightly warming up. After a significant adjustment, the PX price has stabilized. The high - supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the market has a consistent positive expectation [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars/ton [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, the price will be consolidated within a range. - **Main Logic**: The commodity atmosphere has warmed up, and PTA has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current supply - demand pattern is weak and the seasonal inventory accumulation is large, the market has strong long - term expectations [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 spread and the support level of around 5,100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Weak reality but there are still expectations of improvement, and it will be oscillatory and bullish. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene, with a low valuation, has become a choice for capital. Although the current inventory pressure is large, there are expectations of inventory reduction during the spring inspection [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and there are expectations of inventory reduction in the far - month [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is oscillatory and bullish. Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and frequent overseas disturbances [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be reduced, and it will return to the inventory - reduction trend in March, being easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: There are many near - end arrivals, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up, and the decline of ethylene glycol prices has slowed down. The fundamentals are weak, with a larger seasonal inventory accumulation than in previous years, and the supply pressure restricts the upward price elasticity [20][23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be consolidated within a range. The EG05 contract can be operated within the range of [3,700 - 4,050] yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the EG05 - 09 spread within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has warmed up, and upstream polyester raw materials have risen slightly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production cuts and shutdowns have increased, and the demand is weak [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream products, and the support for processing fees is increasing [26]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **View**: The inventory structure is optimized, and the profitability of bottle chips remains strong. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw material prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and the commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up. The supply has decreased, and the inventory structure has been optimized, resulting in strong profits for polyester factories [27][28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the movement of raw materials, and the support for processing fees is increasing. Attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA positions [28]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has returned to the de - stocking stage, and overseas situations have occasional fluctuations. Methanol will be oscillatory within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol price was oscillatory and bullish on February 4, 2026. The inland market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [29][30]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and is oscillatory and slightly bearish, but the improvement of MTO profits may provide some support [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The order receipt has improved, and the sentiment has warmed up. Urea will be oscillatory and consolidated. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, 2026, the supply of urea was sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector was for pre - Spring Festival fertilization, while industrial demand decreased. The inventory continued to decline, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [31]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a game between production enterprises and downstream buyers, and the market is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: After a small decline in maintenance, the price of plastic will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the plastic futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitical situations, the overall commodity sentiment was weak, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the demand was in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [34]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Downstream sentiment is cautious before the Spring Festival, and PP will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PP futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitics, the commodity market sentiment declined, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the downstream is in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [35]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: The spot pressure is not large, and PL will be oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PL futures price was oscillatory. PDH maintenance provided some support, the supply increase was limited, the inventory was controllable, and the downstream demand was in the off - season [36]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: The coal import disturbance makes the PVC rebound cautious. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, short - term "export rush" supports demand, and inventory has decreased. However, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and the cost has increased due to coal price expectations [37]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, factors such as "export rush", domestic supply - side policy expectations, and coal import disturbances boost PVC sentiment, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, with an overall oscillatory trend [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The demand has improved temporarily, and caustic soda should be observed for the time being. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, downstream buyers have purchased at low prices before the Spring Festival, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upstream production is still at a high level [37]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment by downstream buyers has relieved the upstream inventory pressure, but the upstream production is still high, so caustic soda should be observed for the time being [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: The report provides cross - period spreads for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including data on the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: It presents cross - variety spreads for different periods of multiple varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the original text for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, along with their latest values, change percentages, and historical price trends [284][286].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates and a mixed outlook for supply and demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation post-Spring Festival and potential price fluctuations driven by cost factors and downstream demand [1][3]. Supply and Demand - As of January 16, PTA operating load is at 76.3%, down 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The Zhuhai BP1 1.1 million ton PTA unit was shut down on November 6 and restarted on December 25, while the 2 1.25 million ton PTA unit reduced its load to 70% on the same date [1]. - The demand side shows high polyester operating rates, but a gradual decline in load is expected in late January due to negative feedback from terminal weaving [3]. Inventory and Pricing - As of January 16, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA futures warehouse receipts totaled 104,318 contracts, a decrease of 198 contracts from the previous trading day [1]. - Recent PXN fluctuations have led to a slight recovery in PTA processing margins, with overall valuation remaining neutral to slightly high [3]. - The industry anticipates seasonal inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, followed by a potential continuous inventory reduction as demand recovers [3]. Market Dynamics - Short-term PTA processing fees have returned to average levels, but inventory remains low, with more PTA units being shut down than restarted, leading to a slight reduction in supply [3]. - Downstream polyester companies are facing significant profit squeezes, which may force upstream raw material prices to adjust downward [3]. - The short-term outlook for PTA is expected to be volatile, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential risks associated with oil price fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand, with production increasing but inventory levels rising, leading to a weaker price environment for steel products [5]. Supply - Steel production has rebounded, with pig iron output increasing by 2% to 2.295 million tons. The total output of five major steel products rose by 3.4 thousand tons to 8.186 million tons, including rebar up by 2.8 thousand tons to 1.91 million tons and hot-rolled coil up by 1 thousand tons to 3.055 million tons [2]. Demand - Seasonal demand for steel has significantly weakened, with total apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing by 44 thousand tons to 7.97 million tons. Rebar demand fell by 25.5 thousand tons to 1.75 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand remained relatively stable with a decrease of 2.4 thousand tons to 3.08 million tons [3]. Inventory - Inventory levels are entering a seasonal accumulation phase, with rebar inventory increasing by 16 thousand tons to 4.38 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 thousand tons to 368 thousand tons. The total inventory of five major steel products rose by 22 thousand tons to 12.54 million tons [4]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have fluctuated, remaining weaker than coking coal and iron ore prices. Current profit margins are highest for steel billets, followed by rebar and hot-rolled coil. The market is expected to see seasonal accumulation of steel inventory leading up to the Spring Festival, with rebar prices fluctuating in the range of 3000-3200 yuan per ton and hot-rolled coil prices in the range of 3150-3350 yuan per ton [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral [5] - The investment rating for styrene is neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene supply remained stable, with no obvious changes on the supply - side. The main change was in downstream demand. Some styrene downstream plants had unexpected maintenance, reducing pure benzene demand. Caprolactam's profit improved significantly due to production cuts, and the downstream PA6开工率 dropped significantly. It is expected that the caprolactam load will not increase significantly. Currently, the pure benzene port inventory is as high as 300,000 tons, at a historical peak, but the valuation is low. Under the weak reality, the driving force for pure benzene is poor, and the valuation is difficult to recover in the short term. In the future, the fundamentals in the short - term are still not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the possibility of the early restart of pure benzene downstream after significant profit repair [5] Styrene - Last week, there was unexpected maintenance on the styrene supply - side, reducing the overall supply. In terms of demand, the consumption of three S increased, but the overall fluctuation was small. The overall inventory of downstream three S was still at a high level, and the demand is expected to change little in the short term. In terms of inventory, styrene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in the future. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread is low. Last week, the styrene market rose due to unexpected maintenance and export news. With the low valuation of styrene, the influence of marginal positive factors has increased. The main negative factor is the surplus of upstream pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the changes in plants and exports [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The pure benzene supply is rated as neutral. The operating rate changed little, and the actual supply is relatively large. There are many ongoing plant shutdowns, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc. The overall supply situation is relatively stable [6][18] Demand - The pure benzene demand is rated as bearish. The overall operating rate of downstream industries is weak. The downstream overall profit has recovered a lot but remains at a low level. The main downstream industries include styrene, caprolactam, etc., and their demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as plant maintenance and profit [6][20] Month - to - Month Spread - The pure benzene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected that the overall inventory will accumulate in the future, and the month - to - month spread is expected to weaken. The port inventory of pure benzene is expected to continue to accumulate, and although it is relatively balanced in January, there may be inventory reduction if there are other maintenance plants [6][53] External Market Support - The external market support for pure benzene is rated as bullish. The US - Asia arbitrage window is only open for large - vessel mixed aromatic hydrocarbons. In North America, demand is under pressure; in Western Europe, holiday demand is low; in Asia, downstream demand remains weak due to low profits [6][52] Styrene Supply - The styrene supply is rated as bullish. The operating rate has rebounded, but the overall supply is not large. Due to the small change in the month - on - month maintenance volume, the maintenance volume in January decreased slightly, and the output in January is expected to increase [8][56] Demand - The styrene demand is rated as neutral. The downstream demand remains stable, neither strong nor weak. The overall operating rate of downstream three S is low, and the downstream inventory is still high. The overall downstream profit has weakened significantly, and the profit distribution is concentrated in styrene [8][61] Month - to - Month Spread - The styrene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in January, and the month - to - month spread may weaken [8] External Market Support - The external market support for styrene is rated as bullish. The Asia - Europe spread is large, and attention should be paid to possible export changes. In North America, export arbitrage is closed; in Western Europe, downstream demand is low; in Asia, the poor profit of downstream three S weakens the willingness to buy [8][109] Pricing Logic Styrene Basis - The styrene basis has strengthened recently. Due to the decrease in inventory and the tightening of spot liquidity, the basis has strengthened. With the start of seasonal inventory accumulation, the subsequent basis may weaken. The near - month styrene has changed to a Back structure, while the far - month contracts are still in a contango structure. Attention should be paid to the structural changes under the seasonal inventory accumulation in Q1. For pure benzene, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened [99] Styrene Profit - The styrene profit has recovered significantly. Stimulated by unexpected maintenance and export news, styrene prices rose significantly, leading to a significant increase in styrene profit, while the profit of downstream three S is under obvious pressure [102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar, jujube, and rubber industries are all "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the short - term trend is relatively stable after the digestion of previous negative factors, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term. The domestic sugar market has limited fundamental news, with new sugar on the market and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to hold a bearish view [1] - For the jujube market, after the digestion of negative factors, the downward trend of jujube futures prices has weakened. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there is limited room for a significant rebound in the market. It is recommended to continue to be bearish and sell on rallies [3] - For the rubber market, natural rubber has support from firm raw material prices but is affected by increased overseas arrivals and high inventory in Qingdao. The demand side lacks obvious improvement, so it may oscillate in the short term. Synthetic rubber may see a slight price decline in the short term due to sufficient supply and cautious downstream buying [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: On November 24, 2025, the SR601 contract closed at 5370 yuan/ton, up 0.32% daily; the SR605 contract closed at 5319 yuan/ton, up 0.32% daily. The night - session of SR601 closed at 5377 yuan/ton, and SR605 closed at 5319 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar main - contract closed at 14.85 cents/pound, up 0.54% [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi white sugar decreased by 5 yuan/ton; some sugar quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were lowered. The sugar - cane crushing in Maharashtra, India, has accelerated. The USDA predicts that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 season will be 9.319 million short tons. The number of sugar mills in India starting operations, sugar - cane crushing volume, and sugar production have all increased compared to the same period last year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white - sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 278 [1] - **Market Logic**: The short - term external sugar market is stable, but the expected production increase in India and Thailand will put pressure on prices in the medium and long term. The domestic sugar market has limited news, with new sugar on the market and weak demand. Technically, there are signs of a stop - fall, but considering the supply pressure, a bearish view is recommended [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close the short positions of the SR601 contract, continue to hold the 5600 call - selling options, and hold the bear - spread portfolio [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: On November 24, 2025, the CJ601 contract closed at 9225 yuan/ton, up 2.56% daily; the CJ605 contract closed at 9375 yuan/ton, up 2.18% daily [3] - **Important News**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 101.76%. The average prices of Hebei's special - grade and first - grade jujubes decreased last week. The special - grade price in the Hebei market increased by 0.24 yuan/kg on November 24, and the number of arrivals at Guangzhou Ruyifang increased by 3 trucks [3] - **Market Logic**: The jujube purchase in some areas of Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase in other main - producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the digestion of negative factors, the downward trend of futures prices has weakened. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there is limited room for a significant rebound. Technically, there are signs of a stop - fall, but it is recommended to be bearish [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close the short positions of the CJ601 contract, and mainly sell on rallies in the future [3] Rubber - **Market Review**: As of November 24, 2025, the RU2601 contract closed at 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.52% daily; the NR2601 contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% daily; the BR2601 contract closed at 10,395 yuan/ton, down 0.10% daily [4] - **Important News**: The price of Thai raw - material glue was 57 baht/kg. The prices of Yunnan and Hainan glue for different products were stable. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 163,000 tons from the previous period, with a growth rate of 3.60%. The capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The price of butadiene in some areas was stable, and the prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased slightly [4] - **Market Logic**: The domestic natural - rubber producing areas are entering the off - season, and the raw - material price is firm, which supports the price. However, the increase in overseas arrivals and high inventory in Qingdao, along with the lack of obvious improvement in demand, make the short - term trend oscillatory. For synthetic rubber, due to sufficient butadiene supply and cautious downstream buying, the price may decline slightly in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term sentiment of the rubber sector is weak. Pay attention to the support range of 14,850 - 15,000 for RU, around 12,000 for NR, and the 10,000 - yuan mark for BR [4]

Market Overview - Urea prices in Shandong region continue to decline, with small particle mainstream factory transaction prices ranging from 1580 to 1640 RMB/ton, and specific market prices in Linyi and Heze around 1640-1650 RMB/ton and 1630-1640 RMB/ton respectively [1] - As of September 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 8896, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day [1] - The average daily urea production in the past week is 185,600 tons, showing a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year high, with significant new production expected by 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Changjiang Futures notes that with new urea production facilities coming online in Q3, and due to increased maintenance and a decline in urea operating rates, short-term daily production is expected to be lower than the same period last year. Agricultural fertilizer demand remains scattered, and while the supply-demand balance for compound fertilizers has slightly improved, it is still in a seasonal accumulation phase [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that urea supply is tightening in the short term, with expectations of a relaxed supply. Daily production is anticipated to continue declining this week, but new facilities are expected to gradually increase production to 200,000 tons/day by mid to late September. Domestic agricultural demand remains weak, while fertilizer exports are performing relatively well [2] - The overall domestic urea fundamentals remain loose, but with the backdrop of "export quota system" and "price stabilization measures," urea prices are expected to have both upper and lower limits. Macro factors include lower domestic urea production in India, with urea tenders for 1 million tons each on the east and west coasts, priced below market expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and aquaculture industry is volatile, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand patterns of various products will change, affecting price trends. Strategies for different products are also proposed based on these analyses [1][2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Price**: On May 27, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.6 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day), in Henan 14.2 - 14.8 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable). The national pig price was stable with a slight upward trend in the morning [1]. - **Short - term**: The supply pressure is gradually released as the slaughter weight has declined. The market's price - supporting sentiment has increased, and there is still low - level secondary fattening. The demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the demand increase is limited. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the pig price has support at the low level but with intensified fluctuations [1]. - **Medium - to - long term**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of fertile sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From May to September 2024, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. The pig price is still at risk of falling under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From December 2024, the pig production capacity has been reduced, but the reduction range is limited, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has already reflected the weak expectation in advance, with support at the bottom. But the price is still under pressure due to increased and postponed supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Short positions can be opened when the price rebounds to the pressure level [1]. 2. Eggs - **Price**: On May 27, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day), and in Beijing 3.2 yuan/jin (up 0.11 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the procurement demand from channels and downstream may increase. The acceleration of culling has relieved the supply pressure, which is expected to support the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large due to the large number of newly - opened chickens in May, and the unfavorable weather in the south for egg storage and the approaching rainy season after the festival make the channel procurement cautious, so the demand is relatively limited. The egg price is under pressure despite the festival's positive impact [2]. - **Medium - term**: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The production capacity clearance may take time, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: After the poor breeding profits in the first half of the year, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - opened chickens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2]. - **Strategy**: The egg price has support during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. In the third quarter, both supply and demand increase, and interval operations are recommended. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be relieved. For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after entering June, and pay attention to the performance at the 3020 - 3060 pressure level; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view in general and wait for the price to rebound to open short positions. For the 08 contract, pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level. For the 10 contract, look for long - position opportunities at low prices [2][4]. 3. Oils - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybean oil main contract had no quotation due to a public holiday. The Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 0.05% to 3829 ringgit/ton. The national palm oil price dropped 60 - 360 yuan/ton to 8400 - 8650 yuan/ton, soybean oil price dropped 70 - 100 yuan/ton to 7900 - 8100 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 9350 - 9780 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, which was bearish. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved slightly, with a 7.34 - 11.63% month - on - month increase. The production growth continued to slow down, with only a 0.73% month - on - month increase from May 1 - 25. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected. However, the origin is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage until October, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise, putting pressure on the price. The export tax policies of the main producing countries in June are different: Indonesia raised the export tax, while Malaysia lowered it. The short - term Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range. In China, the palm oil arrivals in May - June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month, but the domestic inventory recovery is slow, still at a low level of 338,700 tons as of the week of May 23 [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The EPA denied the biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy has changed again. The excessive rainfall in Argentina and the possible delay of sowing in the US Midwest support the US soybean price. However, the 2026 biofuel blending volume announced by the EPA may be lower than expected, and the 45z Act is yet to be passed by the Senate, so the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, and the pressure of the old - crop South American soybeans limits the rise of the US soybean price. The US soybean 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1050 - 1080 range in the short term. In China, the domestic soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach an average of 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise to 697,200 tons. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to increase due to the large arrivals and rising mill operating rates [4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian rapeseed inventory for the 2024/2025 season continues to decline due to strong crushing and export demand. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, but the high - temperature and dry weather in the prairie region has raised drought concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z Act, which is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, but the arrivals of Canadian rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightening expectation remains unchanged, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term trend of oils is expected to be volatile. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to operate in the 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 ranges respectively. Short positions can be opened cautiously when the price rises. The strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils can be long - term concerned [6]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybeans were closed due to a public holiday. The soybean meal was relatively strong under the low oil - meal ratio, but the rebound space was limited by the loose spot market expectation. The M2509 contract closed at 2950 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The spot price in East China was 2860 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 90 yuan/ton [6]. - **Short - term**: The US soybean sowing progress is smooth, and the high - yield South American soybeans suppress the US soybean price. However, the low carry - over inventory of US soybeans provides strong support at the bottom. The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrivals are increasing, and the soybeans are entering the inventory accumulation cycle. The mill operating rate has increased significantly, and the spot price is expected to weaken with the loosening of supply and demand. The 09 contract was previously suppressed by the spot market but has obvious bottom support and is expected to return to its fundamental situation and rise in price. Attention should be paid to the US soybean planting weather [6]. - **Long - term**: Although the tariff on imported US soybeans has been significantly reduced, the import cost has still increased, which has reduced the arrivals of US soybeans during the supply season. China has shifted more positions to South America, driving up the forward price in South America. The US soybean is in the sowing stage, and the weather disturbances are increasing. The increase in domestic import cost and the tightening of supply and demand will drive the domestic soybean meal price to rise [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is expected to operate in the [2860, 3000] range in the short term. After mid - June, long positions can be opened when the price pulls back [6]. 5. Corn - **Price**: On May 26, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous day [7]. - **Short - term**: As the corn price rises to a high level, the willingness of traders to sell has increased, and the market supply has increased, which has slowed down the price increase. However, the farmers' grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to the trading end. The market is still bullish, and the traders are firm in their asking prices. The inventory in the north - south ports is gradually decreasing, which supports the price. The short - term price has support due to the reduction of grassroots grain sources [7]. - **Long - term**: The 2024/2025 crop year in Northeast and North China may see a reduction in production, and the imported materials have decreased significantly year - on - year. The domestic supply - demand is tightening marginally, which drives the corn price up. However, the policy release and the listing of new - season wheat and other substitutes will further supplement the supply, limiting the upward space of the price. Attention should be paid to the wheat production situation and the mainstream price trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and long positions can be opened at the lower end of the range. Attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the trading end's grain sales rhythm, policy release, and substitute situations [7][8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].