Core Insights - The US PCE price index for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations and previous values, while the year-on-year increase was 2.8%, in line with expectations and slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month [1][3][2] - The core PCE price index also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with expectations and previous values, and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, aligning with Bloomberg's expectations but slightly below Dow Jones' forecast of 2.9% [5][6][4] - Personal income exceeded expectations, while consumer spending fell short, indicating financial strain among consumers prior to the government shutdown [11][7] Inflation Indicators - The SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, saw a slight decline to 3.25% year-on-year, attributed to stagnation in the financial services and accommodation sectors [9] - The report highlighted that the PCE price index is a key reference for the Federal Reserve in formulating inflation policy, with core PCE being viewed as a better indicator of long-term inflation trends [10] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending showed stagnation, with actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remaining flat month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in the primary growth engine of the US economy [14][16] - The report noted a significant drop in goods spending, the largest since May, driven by rising prices in non-durable goods such as gasoline and clothing [15][16] Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, US stock markets continued to rise, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [17] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all saw increases of around 0.5%, while the semiconductor index rose by 2.1% [17]

Group 1 - The recent sell-off of gold ETFs in developed markets is nearing its end, with 86% of the total sell-off from April to May already released in the past 8 trading days [1] - On October 27, the most significant sell-off occurred, with a reduction of 449,000 troy ounces, following a four-day period of the largest daily price drop, indicating that the price drop triggered ETF outflows rather than the other way around [1] - Gold prices have shown resilience, maintaining above the key support level of $3,900 per ounce despite hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate hikes in December [1] Group 2 - Short-term market volatility risks are present, with the current one-month gold volatility significantly exceeding implied volatility, creating a gap of -12.6, the largest since March 2020 [1] - Historical trends suggest that such volatility gaps typically narrow to normal levels within 2-3 months, with fundamental factors expected to support a recovery in gold prices by year-end [1] - The Shanghai gold price increased by 1.09%, closing at 937 yuan per gram [3] Group 3 - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while the Federal Reserve's internal divisions and hawkish signals add to short-term policy uncertainty [4] - Increased central bank purchases of gold and a shift in asset pricing strategies are expected to drive precious metals towards a bull market similar to the 1970s in the medium to long term [4] - Short-term international gold is expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with buying opportunities if prices drop below $3,900 [5]

Market Overview - On November 17, spot gold initially surged above the $4100 mark, reaching a high of $4106.57 per ounce before retreating to below $4100, with a low of $4048 per ounce, maintaining a defensive stance for the third consecutive day [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike diminished after influential FOMC members expressed skepticism about lowering borrowing costs, which provided some support for the US dollar, acting as a headwind for non-yielding gold [1] - Concerns over the longest government shutdown in US history potentially weakening economic momentum opened the door for further easing policies from the US central bank, stabilizing gold above the one-week low of approximately $4,032 [1] Technical Analysis - The weekly gold chart shows a long upper shadow small bullish candle, with the 5-week moving average turning downward, indicating a potential test of the 10-week moving average support in the short term [2] - The daily chart indicates a significant downward movement last Friday, leading to a contraction in the Bollinger Bands, with prices falling below the 5-day moving average, establishing a basis for potential further declines this week [2] - Key resistance levels to watch this week are around the 5-day moving average at $4130-$4135; if gold remains below this level, larger declines are likely [2] Short-term Outlook - The 4-hour chart indicates a slow upward movement followed by a rapid decline, confirming that the previous rise was not strong but rather a secondary peak [4] - The adjustment wave is expected to start from the high of $4245, with a potential target of breaking the low of $3887, suggesting that existing short positions should be maintained [4] - For the beginning of the week, a test of resistance around $4105-$4110 is anticipated, with aggressive traders advised to consider short positions at $4130, targeting $4080-$4030 [4]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, marking the end of the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, which has lasted 43 days [1] - House Republican leaders expect to gain enough support from Democratic members to pass the bill, which has already been approved by the Senate and will fund the government until January 30 of the following year [1][5] - The White House has expressed support for the bill, emphasizing the economic damage caused by the shutdown and attributing responsibility to Congressional Democrats [1][5] Voting Process and Schedule - The House will begin procedures at 4 PM EST, with the final vote on the funding bill expected between 7 PM and 7:30 PM [2] - A swearing-in ceremony for a newly elected Democratic representative will take place before the debate on the funding bill begins [2] Republican Plans Moving Forward - House Republican leaders aim to expedite legislative work to compensate for the six weeks lost during the shutdown, with plans to address various bills including those related to liquefied natural gas and refining capacity [3] - The upcoming legislative week will feature a five-day work schedule instead of the usual four, with late-night voting sessions planned [3] White House and Trump Statements - The White House has reiterated its support for the funding bill, stating it will end the longest government shutdown and urging Congress to pass it [5] - Economic losses during the shutdown are estimated to be in the billions, with significant impacts on consumer confidence and the tourism industry [5] Democratic Response - House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has introduced a petition to extend tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, requiring bipartisan support to force a vote [6] - Jeffries criticized Republican reluctance to negotiate on healthcare issues, emphasizing the need for bipartisan dialogue [7]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching around $4,140, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year [1][2] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials for insights into monetary policy direction [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may experience fluctuations within the range of $4,110 to $4,150, with potential support at $4,080 [3] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices have slightly retreated to around $51.10 after a five-day upward trend, influenced by a recovery in dollar demand [1][2] - The silver market faces key resistance between $50.02 and $51.07, with a potential breakout above $51.07 leading to further gains towards $54.49 [4] - Long-term bullish sentiment for silver is supported by supply-demand imbalances and industrial demand, despite short-term volatility risks due to potential profit-taking [4] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum prices attempted to break the $1,600 mark but failed to maintain upward momentum, ultimately retreating [1] - The platinum market is currently under pressure from a strong dollar and market risk aversion, with expected price fluctuations between $1,500 and $1,700 per ounce [5] - Long-term support for platinum remains due to supply shortages, although macroeconomic uncertainties and demand changes need to be monitored [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The hope that the US government shutdown will end has led to a rapid increase in risk appetite, causing significant rebounds in gold and silver prices. The optimistic expectation of the US ending the shutdown and the rise in risk appetite are driving the continued recovery of gold and silver prices under emotional influence [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China-US tariffs) have significantly improved and even shown a turning trend [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.83% to $4,123.40 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, risk appetite rebounded, and silver prices rose significantly. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.70% to $50.41 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with an increase in long positions [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and gold prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. The Shanghai gold premium remains around 0 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and silver prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. Additionally, silver being included in the US critical minerals list may reignite tariff concerns and provide support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September trade balance and current account - Time TBD: Citigroup's 20th China Summit in Shenzhen from November 11 - 12, G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Canada - 10:00 New Zealand's Q4 2 - year inflation expectation - 15:00 UK's September three - month ILO employment number and unemployment rate - 16:30 Speeches by Bank of England MPC member Greene, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic, and ECB Governing Council member and Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen - 18:00 Eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's November ZEW economic sentiment index - 21:00 Speech by ECB Governing Council member Kocher - Next day 06:15 Participation of RBA Assistant Governor Jones in a fireside chat [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 2.65, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 12, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 170,662, an increase of 5,401 (3.27%) compared to November 9; the short position volume was 68,384, an increase of 776 (1.15%); the net position was 102,278, an increase of 4,625 (4.74%) [31]. - **Silver**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 353,561, a decrease of 1,037 (- 0.29%) compared to November 7; the short position volume was 261,865, an increase of 5,886 (2.30%); the net position was 91,696, a decrease of 6,923 (- 7.02%) [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Domestic inventory increase restricts the price increase of lead [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 17,505 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of lead was 2,045 dollars/ton, up 0.42% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 31,610 lots, an increase of 4,404 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 10,307 lots, an increase of 3,259 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 58,725 lots, a decrease of 1,093 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,524 lots, a decrease of 1,470 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -8.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 23,195 tons, an increase of 1,292 tons; the LME lead inventory was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -459.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - contract was -286.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.93 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 yuan/ton [1]. News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening safeguards [1]. - The US government is expected to end the shutdown, and the S&P and Nasdaq, two major US stock indices, posted their largest gains in five months [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1].

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a plan to distribute at least $2000 to every American, excluding high-income individuals, as a response to the current economic situation and ongoing government shutdown [2][5]. Group 1: Funding Source - Trump claims the funds will come from tariffs, asserting that tariffs have made the U.S. the wealthiest and most respected nation, with low inflation and record-high stock markets [3][10]. - He emphasizes that the U.S. generates trillions in revenue annually, which will help repay the national debt of $37 trillion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Announcement - The first reason for the cash distribution is to signal to the U.S. Supreme Court, which is reviewing tariff cases, as Trump is anxious about the potential outcomes that could affect his policies [6][11]. - The second reason is to reassure the American public amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has caused significant economic distress for many citizens [12][16]. Group 3: Public Reaction - The American public's response is polarized, with supporters praising Trump's actions while critics label them as lies [13][14]. - Some Americans question the source of the funds, arguing that tariffs ultimately burden the American people rather than foreign countries [16]. Group 4: Trump's Characteristics - Trump is noted for his adept use of new media, consistently generating headlines and maintaining a strong public presence [21][23]. - His strategic approach includes making bold announcements that keep him in the spotlight, often using psychological tactics to influence public perception and political dynamics [30][31]. - Despite his age, Trump is recognized for his relentless campaigning and engagement with the media, showcasing a high level of energy and commitment [33][36].

Core Insights - Gold prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum, remaining below $4000 despite previous rebounds [1][2] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional bias [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold has experienced an 11% pullback from its historical high of $4382 reached on October 20, remaining in a consolidation mode for the eighth consecutive trading day [3] - Strong U.S. private sector employment data and earnings reports have countered the dollar's retreat due to the unprecedented government shutdown [3] - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 25,000, while the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4 [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month are approximately 62%, down from 69% prior to the data release [3] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold appears neutral to slightly bearish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midpoint [6] - Gold is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its parabolic rise since August 19 [6] - Buyers need a daily close above $4000 to target the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,079, while strong selling pressure is expected around the psychological level of $4000 [6] - Support levels are identified at $3930, with further support at the October 28 low of $3887 and a demand zone between $3865-$3850 [6]