注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 国泰海通指出，美国流动性危机缓解，黄金短期压制因素解除。随着美国政府停摆结束，美国财政部账 户余额预期下降，市场流动性缓解后，黄金的短期压制因素解除。中期来看，美联储的降息、停止缩表 等政策路径将主导黄金走势，虽然2025年12月降息幅度及2026年降息路径仍存不确定性，但美国降息趋 势不变，金价中期存在支撑。此外，美联储主席换届进程可能影响市场对2026年政策的预期，当前候选 人偏"鸽派"或进一步支撑金价。长期来看，去美元化背景下，各国央行持续购金（2022-2024年每年净 购超1000吨），黄金作为金属货币的地位上升，叠加美国降息周期带来的弱势美元，黄金中长期价格具 备支撑。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增 ...

格隆汇11月19日｜随着投资者在关键数据公布前变得更加谨慎以寻找未来美国降息路径的线索，美元横 向盘整。美联储会议纪要将于北京时间周四凌晨3点公布。主席鲍威尔曾表示，12月再次降息并非板上 钉钉。不过，本周最受关注的仍是周四公布的9月延期非农数据。由于市场目前对于美联储是否会在12 月降息仍看法不一，这些数据的重要性更加凸显。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.156 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year. The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.80%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 882 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 11.156 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.155 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.035 billion yuan. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 4.129 billion yuan, with a net profit of 882 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 781 million yuan [2][6]. Market Conditions - The slight year-on-year decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to weaker demand in Europe and the US, with US tool consumption down 6.5% in August due to high interest rates affecting home sales and inflation suppressing consumer demand. The company expects new product launches in 2025 to support overall revenue [12]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 35%, continuing to improve due to the scale effect of overseas production capacity. The operating profit margin, excluding financial expenses, investment income, and asset impairment losses, reached 15.4%, up from 13.8% in Q2, indicating strong profitability [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that a decrease in interest rates in the US will significantly stimulate real estate and tool demand. The expected performance for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.611 billion, 3.267 billion, and 3.919 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [12].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish and recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; Aluminum is recommended to layout long positions on dips after a pullback; Nickel is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to fluctuate; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; The 01 contract of soda ash is recommended to take a short - selling approach [1][22][24][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly; Apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs are recommended to short on rallies; Eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; Soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; Oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1][39][44][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by macro - policies, and others by international trade and geopolitical factors. For example, the PVC market is affected by high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export prospects; the oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [23][47][50] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: May fluctuate in the short - term and are long - term bullish. The market trading volume decreased slightly, and different sectors showed different trends. Pay attention to important financial policies after the conference [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Are expected to fluctuate. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations is the key factor affecting market risk appetite [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: Supply is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. Jm has multi - allocation value, and the first round of coke price increase has started after the holiday [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are low - valued, and the price decline space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long near 3000 for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: After the holiday, the policy expectation has cooled down, and the supply and demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - factors cause large fluctuations, but the fundamentals are relatively stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has decreased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to layout long positions on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty to the supply. The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18][19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the delay of US economic data, government shutdown risk, and interest - rate cut expectation, they are expected to have support. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate. The range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is expected to fluctuate, and the support at 15000 is concerned [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, the agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the range of 1550 - 1650 is concerned [29] - **Methanol**: The supply increases, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand is limited, and the inventory has a pressure to accumulate. The PE and PP main contracts are expected to fluctuate, and the support at 6900 and 6600 is concerned respectively [30][31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The 01 contract is recommended to take a short - selling approach [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are both expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate [34][35] - **PTA**: The oil price is low, the supply - demand is balanced, and the inventory accumulation slows down. It is expected to have range fluctuations, and the range of 4350 - 4600 is concerned [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples decreases, and the delivery cost is expected to increase; the jujube purchase price is relatively stable. Both are expected to be slightly bullish [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, the price may fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trading strategies [39][41] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][43] - **Corn**: The new crop is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply is improving. It is expected to have range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to trade relations [44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as production, export, and supply - demand relationships, the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to go long after the correction [45][47][50]

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry has seen an overall improvement in performance this year, with certain subjective strategies showing remarkable results and a significant increase in institutional research enthusiasm [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment goal of private equity is absolute returns, emphasizing the correctness of investments and the efficiency of capital usage, requiring a higher transformation of research results [2][5]. - Research efforts should be concentrated in the most valuable investment areas to achieve the highest win rates and optimal investment returns [2][5]. - In the current environment of consumption and cyclical recovery, it is essential to analyze the triggering factors for industry activation, identify benefiting segments, and track key data closely after market movements [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The coexistence of growth and dividend styles is driven by the current economic and market environment, with growth stocks like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, and robotics performing well alongside dividend stocks like banks [6][7]. - The growth style is propelled by new technologies such as AI and changing consumption trends among younger demographics, while the dividend style is supported by low-risk preferences in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7]. Group 3: Impact of External Factors - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. is expected to raise inflation and suppress demand, negatively impacting global trade and economic growth, but the marginal impact on China is limited due to its competitive advantages [7][8]. - If the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, it could enhance global market risk appetite and provide a favorable external environment for domestic markets, particularly benefiting technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has upgraded its outlook on Minhua Holdings, citing that the negative factors affecting the company's stock price have already been reflected, and potential growth opportunities may arise from market share gains despite uncertainties from tariffs [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Minhua Holdings' stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 4.71 HKD with a transaction volume of 30.6354 million HKD [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ongoing weakness in the domestic real estate market has been fully reflected in Minhua Holdings' stock price [1] - A potential increase in demand from the U.S. is anticipated due to interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - UBS has raised its earnings per share estimates for Minhua Holdings for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 12%, 9%, and 11% respectively [1] - The current low valuation is expected to provide upward potential for both fundamentals and valuations, even if a market turnaround in China takes longer than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has upgraded its outlook on Minhua Holdings, citing that the negative factors affecting the company's stock price have already been reflected, and there is potential for growth due to expected demand increase in the U.S. as interest rates decline [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Minhua Holdings' stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 4.71 HKD with a transaction volume of 30.6354 million HKD [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - UBS's report indicates that the ongoing weakness in the domestic real estate market has been fully reflected in Minhua Holdings' stock price [1] - The firm has raised its earnings per share forecasts for Minhua Holdings for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 12%, 9%, and 11% respectively [1] - Despite uncertainties from tariffs, there may be opportunities for market share growth, leading UBS to adopt a more positive outlook on the company [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The report suggests that even if a turning point in the Chinese market takes longer to materialize, the ongoing weakness in the domestic housing market is not expected to lead to a downward revaluation of the company's stock [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. are expected to provide upward momentum for both the fundamentals and valuation of Minhua Holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the growth of downstream application demand for electric tool batteries, indicating a potential upward expansion cycle in the battery market driven by U.S. interest rate cuts and the North American real estate cycle [2]. Group 1: Market Demand and Trends - The company acknowledges an increase in demand for lithium battery products, suggesting a positive outlook for future sales [2]. - The company highlights that the proportion of 21700 battery products in sales is increasing, which is expected to enhance profitability compared to the 18650 products [2]. Group 2: Product Upgrades - Continuous upgrades of lithium battery products are being emphasized, indicating a focus on improving product performance and efficiency [2].

Group 1 - European stock markets opened higher, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.3%, indicating a lack of excessive reaction from investors to President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on patented drugs [1] - The healthcare sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, with notable drops in companies such as Novo Nordisk, which fell by 1.7%, and Zealand Pharma, which decreased by 2.2% [1] - Sophie Huet, a portfolio manager and strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, suggested that this situation could present a buying opportunity rather than a reason to short European stocks, emphasizing the importance of considering the broader context despite the sector's national characteristics [1] Group 2 - European stock markets have been fluctuating within a narrow range as investors assess the prospects of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [3] - Market attention is shifting towards the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, for insights into the economic situation [3] - STMicroelectronics saw a decline of 1.6% following reports that the Trump administration is considering plans to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign chips [3]