Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the July CPI year-on-year rate in the US was below expectations, the core CPI reached its highest level since February, suggesting inflationary pressures remain significant [1][2] - The July PPI year-on-year rate significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [2] - The market is largely anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by the recent economic data [1][2] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine on August 18, and the release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes on August 21 [3] - The Jackson Hole global central banking conference will take place from August 20 to August 23, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak on August 22 [3] - Economic indicators to watch include initial jobless claims data for the week ending August 16, which is expected to show a slight decrease in claims [3]

Inflation Data Summary - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but lower than the previous 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, exceeding expectations of 3% and up from 2.9% in the prior month[1] Market Reactions and Trends - The underwhelming July CPI data led to a consensus in the market favoring a rate cut in September, with positive responses in both stock and bond markets[2] - Despite some positive signs in imported goods prices, service sector inflation accelerated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a previous increase of 0.9%[3] - Food prices remained stable, showing no change month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[3] - Core services, particularly in transportation, saw notable increases, with transportation services rising by 0.8% month-on-month[4] Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, especially if employment risks materialize[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency before any rate cut decisions[5]

证券研究报告 宏观 美国 7月 CPI:关税对通胀传导较为 | H 15 | | --- | | 5 r | | 1 六 | | 美 5 1 2 1 | 2025年8月13日|中国内地 动态点评 美国 7月核心 CPI 环比上行至 0.3%,符合市场预期,缓解了市场对通胀明 显回升的担忧:核心 CPI 同比上行 0.2pp 至 3.1%,略高于预期的 3.0%; CP| 环比从 6 月的 0.29%回落至 0.2%,符合预期,同比持平于 2.7%,喀低 于预期的 2.8%。7月核心通胀环比仅温和上升,核心通胀中受关税影响较 大的核心商品通胀压力可控,进一步增强了市场对于联储 9月降息的信心: 截至北京时间 22点 20分,联储降息预期上行 4bp 至 61bp,9月降息概率 升至 96%. 2v、10v 美债收益率分别下行 2bp、上行 2bp 至 3.75%、4.31%. 美元指数下跌 0.3%至 98.3,美股高开后上涨。 从分项来看. 7月核心 CPI 环比回升主要来自核心服务的反弹,特别是波动 比较大的机票分项;而受关税影响比较大的核心商品通胀整体较为温和,受 到关税影响较大的分项环比增速甚至有所放缓 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for July increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8%[1] - The market's confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 96%[1] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a mild impact on inflation, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff costs to consumers due to weak demand perceptions[2] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise only moderately, constrained by weak corporate demand and a softening job market[2] - Core service inflation showed a rebound, particularly in volatile categories like airfare, while core goods inflation remained subdued, with some categories experiencing a slowdown in price growth[1][2] Specific Inflation Components - Core services increased by 0.36% month-on-month, driven by transportation and medical services, while core goods rose by only 0.21%[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with the energy component decreasing by -1.07% month-on-month, contributing to a decline in overall CPI growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points[4] - Food prices also saw a notable slowdown, decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to a growth rate of 0.05%[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

Inflation Data Summary - In June 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%[1] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from 2.8% previously[1] Economic Implications - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, although tariff impacts are becoming more pronounced, particularly in clothing and furniture prices[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in September, driven by the risk of economic stagnation outweighing inflation concerns[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with energy CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year[5] - Core services, particularly housing, have weakened, counteracting gains in other service categories, while automotive prices remain depressed[8] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates continue to suppress housing demand, while the automotive sector faces challenges from both weak demand and competitive pricing pressures from overseas[8] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming more evident, with over half of companies indicating a willingness to pass on 50%-75% of cost increases to consumers[26]

Group 1 - Overall inflation met expectations with a seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest single-month rise since January. This led to an unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, driven by rising food and energy prices [1] - Core inflation was below expectations, with a seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.2%, remaining below the median forecast for the fifth consecutive month. The year-on-year core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% in the previous three months, meeting expectations [1] - Key components of core inflation were suppressed due to declines in new and used car prices, as well as decreases in airfare and accommodation costs. Housing prices showed relative moderation, with a monthly increase of 0.2%. The impact of tariff increases was evident in several categories, with furniture prices rising by 1%, the largest increase since January 2022; video and audio product prices up by 1.1%, the largest since February last year; and toy prices increasing by 1.8%, the largest since April 2021 [1] - Rate cut pricing remained unchanged, as higher tariff rates are expected to take effect from August. Economists indicated that the June inflation report is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier. Futures markets still suggest a significant possibility of the Fed restarting rate cuts in September [1] Group 2 - Following the report's release, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield retraced slight gains, gold experienced volatility, and the three major U.S. stock indices opened mixed [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.7% year-on-year in June, surpassing the forecast of 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4% [1] - The month-on-month CPI growth for June was reported at 0.3%, aligning with the forecast of 0.3% and significantly higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1% [1]

提醒：北京时间20:30，将公布美国6月CPI，7月纽约联储制造业指数；加拿大6月CPI。 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，据外媒分析报道，6月CPI报告将显著影响市场对美联储下一步政策的预期。目前 市场预期，美联储在10月降息的可能性更大。如果数据高于预期，即使远高于预期，美联储也会等到10 月降息，但如果数据比预期温和，那么美联储预计在7月维持利率不变，9月降息。总之，在货币政策 上，6月CPI报告将让人看清，特朗普和鲍威尔谁才是正确的。 美国CPI前瞻：数据好于/低于预期对货币政策的影响 ...