来源：环球市场播报 整体来看，今年美国企业并购活动持续升温，进一步助长了股市中的 "动物精神"（市场乐观情绪）。 尽管美国国会议员未能就政府拨款协议达成一致，政府停摆状态仍在持续，但投资者并未受此担忧影 响。此次政府停摆已导致多项关键经济数据延迟发布，其中包括原定于周五公布的 9 月非农就业报告。 爱德华兹资产管理公司首席投资官罗伯特・爱德华兹表示："目前，股市并未受政府停摆影响，而是更 关注企业盈利前景的乐观预期以及美联储可能进一步降息的前景。股市通常将政府停摆视为'华盛顿的 无意义争论'而不予理会。过去政府停摆通常持续数日，但如今可能持续数周，因此投资者或许需要保 持耐心。" 一则大型区域银行并购消息引发市场对更大规模并购浪潮即将到来的乐观预期，同时 AMD 因与 OpenAI 达成合作股价大幅飙升，受此推动，美股股指期货走高。尽管美国政府停摆已进入第二周，市 场仍继续缓慢上行。 截至发稿，道指期货涨0.20%，标普500指数期货涨0.32%，纳指期货涨0.70%。 标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在过去五周中已实现四周上涨，上周分别上涨 1.1% 和 1.3%。道 琼斯工业平均指数在过去四周中上 ...

1. 10月6日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.20%，标普500指数期货涨0.32%，纳指期货涨0.70%。 | = US 30 | 46,852.90 | 46,915.50 | 46,782.50 | +94.60 | +0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,737.40 | 6,745.00 | 6,719.40 | +21.60 | +0.32% | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 24,959.80 | 24,979.90 | 24,800.80 | +174.30 | +0.70% | OPEC+ 11月谨慎增产13.7万桶/日，油价小幅走高。当地时间10月5日，OPEC+同意11月小幅增加原油产量，增产幅度为13.7万桶/日。此 举缓解了交易员对超大规模增产的担忧，油价周一开盘走高。截止发稿，WTI原油涨1.22%，报61.62美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.24%，报 65.33美元/桶。据悉，OPEC+在10月5日的会议后决定将自11月起把原油日产量提高13.7万桶。由于市场对 ...

Group 1 - The month of September saw significant deterioration in various aspects, including the potential government shutdown and bleak employment outlook, yet it marked a historic period for commodities, stocks, and forex markets due to a strong upward betting trend [1] - Gold prices surged by 12%, marking the eighth consecutive increase in nine months, while global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, adding approximately $35 trillion in market capitalization [2] - The proportion of pure long-only actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks has dropped to 22%, potentially leading to the worst performance on record [2] Group 2 - A commodity trading advisor index tracking price trends rose nearly 6% in September, and similar trend-following funds achieved their best monthly performance since 2022 [5] - The consensus has shifted positively, with market confidence bolstered by the expectation that President Trump may retract harsher trade measures, alongside the Federal Reserve's focus shifting from inflation to a weak labor market [5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.5% in September and continued to increase by 1% the following week, while the dollar maintained a broader downtrend and gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive week [5] Group 3 - Financial system liquidity has been a significant factor supporting risk assets, with the growth rate of money supply exceeding GDP growth, leading to increased inflows into stock and credit markets [6] - In September, total deposits into U.S. ETFs reached $141 billion, marking the third-highest level on record, indicating a broad liquidity seeking to be deployed across various asset classes [6] - The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in 2025, poised for its best annual inflow since 2018, while a high-beta momentum stock basket surged by 17% last month [9]

美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收涨，其中，标普500指数收涨0.48%，创年内第27次新高，道指收涨0.29%，纳指收涨0.94%，两大指数也均创历史新 高。 01 美联储政策转向引发关注 尽管美联储实施了降息，但其传递的信息远非纯粹的鸽派。鲍威尔的讲话暗示，此次行动并非激进宽松政策的开端，而是应对经济不确定性、特别是劳动 力市场走软和通胀顽固的审慎之举。 Pepperstone Group研究策略师Michael Brown表示："前置式"降息可能是这次决定中最重要的部分。如果劳动力市场疲软持续，美联储将继续降息，货币政 策环境将很快变得宽松得多。 BNP Paribas财富管理首席投资策略师Stephan Kemper指出："美联储看跌期权重新启动。在通胀如此高企时降息是不寻常举措。市场似乎认为美联储已决 定在其双重使命中愿意牺牲哪一部分。" 策略师Mark Cranfield预计，美元的反弹将是短暂的。下周美联储官员将重新发声，可能释放比本次政策决定更加鸽派的信号。 Bolvin Wealth Management Group总裁Gina Bolvin在一份声明中表示："美联储降息25个基点是一个明确的 ...

国际贵金属期货普遍收跌 当地时间9月17日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货主力合约跌 0.82%，报3694.6美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合约跌2.15%，报41.995美元/盎司。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 当地时间9月17日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一。道琼斯工业指数涨0.57%，标普500指数跌 0.1%，纳斯达克指数跌0.33%。 美股大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.66%。个股方面，英伟达跌超 2%，亚马逊跌超1%，谷歌、Meta小幅下跌；特斯拉涨逾1%，苹果、微软小幅上涨。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAG: | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 09-17 16:00:00 | | | | 62564.05 | 昨收 | 62979.74 | | | -415.69 -0.66% | 今开 62867.54 | | 4.01亿 | | 上涨 3 | 平盘 0 下跌 | | 4 | | 最高价 62922.78 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points in this rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to influence various asset classes positively [24][14][30]. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market is likely to see increased risk appetite, with growth and small-cap stocks expected to benefit more from the rate cut [28][17]. - There is a significant increase in demand for foreign capital to flow back into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supported by domestic policies [28][17]. - Gold prices are projected to challenge $3,800 or higher within the year or by mid-next year due to the rate cut [28][18]. - Short-term bond yields are expected to decrease, leading to price increases, while long-term bond volatility may ease due to clearer expectations [28][17]. - The U.S. dollar index is facing systemic downward pressure, entering a weakening cycle [28][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology and growth sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, are anticipated to perform well during this easing cycle [17][18]. - In the Chinese market, if the People's Bank of China continues to implement monetary easing, it could provide a boost to the A-share market, potentially leading to a second wave of upward momentum [21][28]. - The bond market may see increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds, especially government and policy bank bonds, as the Fed's rate cut alleviates the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential [21][28]. Global Context - The current rate cut is part of a broader trend of global central banks lowering rates, with the Fed's actions expected to influence other markets and asset classes worldwide [32][30].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, driven by lower-than-expected job growth in recent months [1][11]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a short-term rally, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors, while the Chinese assets strengthened, with the Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke above 7.09, reaching a high of 7.0845, the first time since November of the previous year [1][3]. Stock Market Reactions - In a preventive rate cut environment, U.S. stocks typically exhibit three characteristics: limited downward adjustments due to the "Fed put," strong performance from interest rate-sensitive indices or sectors, and a sustained trading period of about three months following the first rate cut [6]. - Growth-oriented and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit more from the rate cut, with foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks significantly increasing [15] [9]. Gold Market Insights - Historically, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the ten trading days following a rate cut since 1990, although caution is advised regarding profit-taking after the rate cut [7]. - Several institutions predict that international gold prices may challenge $3,800 or higher within the year or by mid-next year [15]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen below 4%, approaching last week's low, with short-term bond yields decreasing and prices rising [5][6]. - The Fed's rate cut is expected to alleviate the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially attracting foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds, particularly government and policy bank bonds [9]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The weakening U.S. dollar and improved global liquidity are anticipated to drive capital from the U.S. to emerging markets, especially Asian equities and sovereign debt [9]. - The RMB is expected to maintain stability, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the dollar index faces systemic downward pressure [9].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，全球金融市场将迎来本月重磅事件——美联储议息会议决议公布。在近期美国 就业数据疲软、通胀压力缓和的背景下，市场普遍预期美联储此次会议将开启新一轮降息周期，但就降 息幅度仍存意见分歧。 据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）"美联储观察"，美联储本次会议降息25个基点的概率高达95.9%，而降息 50个基点的概率仅为4.1%。市场同时预期，到10月份累计降息50个基点的概率达到73.8%，显示出市场 对持续宽松的强烈预期。 但值得注意的是，美国总统特朗普近日连续在社交平台发声，施压美联储应"大幅快速降息"，甚至明确 要求幅度应"超出预期"，这些言论为该次会议增添了更多政治不确定性。 值得注意的是，政治因素也在影响着市场预期。美国总统特朗普近日连续在社交平台发声并痛斥美联储 主席鲍威尔"毫无头绪"，要求"立刻大幅降息"。这些喊话不仅为会议增添了政治不确定性，更引发了全 球市场对美联储独立性的担忧。 同时，英国央行、日本央行和加拿大央行等全球主要央行也将在本周陆续公布利率决议，"超级央行 周"的整体决策将共同塑造未来数月全球金融市场的走向。 放眼未来，美联储的决策将对全球金融市场产生怎样的连锁反应？国 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨，全球金融市场将迎来本月重磅事件——美联储议息会议决议公布。在 近期美国就业数据疲软、通胀压力缓和的背景下，市场普遍预期美联储此次会议将开启新一轮 降息周期，但就降息幅度仍存意见分歧。 在维持关键利率稳定9个月后，市场观点普遍认为，9月美联储降息"板上钉钉"。但围绕降息幅 度的争论却始终激烈：是谨慎的25个基点，还是激进的50个基点？这一决策显然牵动着全球市 场的神经。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪倾向于降息25个基点。她表示： "近期数据尚未形成明确 的经济衰退趋势，并不足以支撑降息50个基点。" 这一观点代表了市场主流预期。白雪进一步 解释道："降息25基点既能释放宽松信号，又为后续政策预留调整空间。若本次直接降息50基 点，可能被市场解读为对经济衰退的恐慌性反应，反而加剧不确定性。" 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平将美联储降息分为"预防式降息"和"纾困式降 息"两类， 他认为当前环境下美国并未处于非常明确的经济衰退或面临严重的外部冲击，本轮 降息应属于预防式降息。 但与1995-1996年、1998年两次典型的预防式降息相比，连平指出此 记者丨 冯紫彤 编辑丨曾芳 据 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨，全球金融市场将迎来本月重磅事件——美联储议息会议决议公布。在近期美国 就业数据疲软、通胀压力缓和的背景下，市场普遍预期美联储此次会议将开启新一轮降息周期，但就降 息幅度仍存意见分歧。 据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）"美联储观察"，美联储本次会议降息25个基点的概率高达95.9%，而降息 50个基点的概率仅为4.1%。市场同时预期，到10月份累计降息50个基点的概率达到73.8%，显示出市场 对持续宽松的强烈预期。 但值得注意的是，美国总统特朗普近日连续在社交平台发声，施压美联储应"大幅快速降息"，甚至明确 要求幅度应"超出预期"，这些言论为该次会议增添了更多政治不确定性。 同时，英国央行、日本央行和加拿大央行等全球主要央行也将在本周陆续公布利率决议，"超级央行 周"的整体决策将共同塑造未来数月全球金融市场的走向。 放眼未来，美联储的决策将对全球金融市场产生怎样的连锁反应？国内股、债、汇等资产价格将如何变 动？全球资产配置格局会否发生重大调整？ 25基点还是50基点 在维持关键利率稳定9个月后，市场观点普遍认为，9月美联储降息"板上钉钉"。但围绕降息幅度的争论 却始终激烈：是谨慎的25个基 ...