中金研究 在全球股市经验的首篇 《股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性》 ，我们复盘了1980年代以来美国股市长牛的历史经验。本篇作为系列报告的第二篇，我 们回顾1990年代资产泡沫破灭后的十多年间，日本股市结构性上涨的历史启示。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 1990年后，日本经历"失落的二十年"。但我们认为，仅从整体角度看日本宏观经济基本面和股市，忽视了其中的结构性转变和投资机会，这二十年中，日 本股市出现明显的"结构性"行情。 日本结构性上涨背后反映的是日本经济的结构性转变，是企业出海、高技术主导和公司治理改善共同作用的结果。 如果把日本对国内地产和通缩暴露较 多的"老经济"行业去除，"新经济"行业指数在90年代后趋势走强。其中，工业、科技、通信，甚至大消费板块表现较好。除资产端外，稳定的资金，尤其 是长线资金和海外资金入市，对日本结构性上涨形成资金端支撑。 海外暴露： 90年代日本出口保持高增，对外直接投资增加。制造业，特别是高端制造业，是日本对外投资的主要方向，带动日本海外生产和销售占比提 升。日本海外投资具有更高的利润率，改善企业整体盈利能力。 高技术主导： 日本国内宏观层面长期低迷并 ...

Group 1: Core Views - Major brokerages are actively preparing for the 2026 strategy meetings, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment and a bullish outlook for the A-share market [3][4] - The market's driving force is anticipated to shift from valuation recovery to profit improvement, with a focus on fundamental performance [5][6] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Institutions predict that the domestic economy will maintain stability in 2026, with policies continuing to provide support [4] - Key indicators such as consumer demand, monetary liquidity, and the RMB's appreciation are expected to drive reasonable price recovery [4] - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial theme, with strategies to balance supply and demand through various measures [4] Group 3: Market Trends - The market is expected to challenge ten-year highs, driven by economic transformation and capital market reforms [6] - Different institutions have varying views on market momentum, with some predicting a slow upward trend after a period of valuation recovery [5][6] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Technology remains a consensus investment direction, but there is a diversification of views on secondary lines and specific sectors [7] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate market volatility, with a focus on both "old economy" and resource sectors [8] - Resource products are highlighted as a potential new mainline direction in the A-share market, alongside technology [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing 2026 annual strategy meetings held by various securities firms, focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, investment strategies, and the development prospects of listed companies in the context of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Strategy Meetings Overview - Multiple securities firms, including Dongwu Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities, have held or are scheduled to hold their 2026 annual strategy meetings, discussing market trends and investment strategies for the upcoming year [1][2]. - The themes of these meetings emphasize new opportunities and trends for 2026, with keywords like "new journey," "new chapter," and "seizing opportunities" reflecting a focus on economic transformation [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Dongwu Securities' chairman, Fan Li, stated that the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, indicating a historical asset allocation opportunity under the financial power strategy [7]. - Kaiyuan Securities' chief economist, He Ning, projected a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with a more proactive macro policy and expectations for equity performance to outshine bonds [8]. Group 3: Price Stability and Market Dynamics - Price stability is highlighted as a key variable influencing the macroeconomic outlook and capital market performance for 2026, with institutions viewing it as critical for economic growth [8][9]. - Guotai Junan's chief macro analyst, Liang Zhonghua, emphasized that internal demand remains a challenge for 2026, and price indicators are essential for monitoring changes in internal demand [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article notes a shift in focus towards "old economy" sectors, with analysts suggesting that these sectors may outperform technology stocks due to their current low valuations and market expectations [13][15]. - Huatai Securities' research indicates that the market may transition from a focus on sentiment and valuation to performance verification in 2026, with a balanced approach to value and growth investments recommended [14][15]. Group 5: Market Performance Expectations - Analysts predict that the A-share market may challenge the highs seen in 2015, with expectations for a "transformation bull market" driven by economic restructuring and capital market reforms [10][12]. - The potential for a "slow bull market" rather than a sharp peak is anticipated, with a focus on earnings recovery in 2026 [12][15].

Core Insights - The 2026 annual strategy meetings held by various securities firms focus on macroeconomic outlook, investment strategies, and high-quality development of listed companies, reflecting a collective anticipation for new opportunities in the upcoming year [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategy Meetings Overview - Multiple securities firms, including Dongwu Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities, have held or are scheduled to hold their 2026 annual strategy meetings, discussing themes such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and economic transformation [1][2][3] - The meetings emphasize keywords like "new journey," "new chapter," and "seizing opportunities," indicating a focus on emerging trends and economic transformation [3][5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Dongwu Securities' chairman highlighted the enduring positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy, suggesting a historical asset allocation opportunity driven by financial strength [6] - Open-source Securities anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with a more proactive macroeconomic policy and expectations for equity markets to outperform bonds [6][7] - Guotai Junan's chief macro analyst noted that inflation indicators are crucial for assessing economic growth and capital market performance, emphasizing the need for stable prices to support growth [6][7] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - Guotai Junan's president pointed out that the new round of capital market reforms aims to enhance inclusivity and competitiveness, potentially leading to a broad revaluation of Chinese assets [8] - Huatai Securities' analysts predict a shift in investor focus towards cyclical sectors like energy, consumption, and real estate, as the market transitions from a "dividend and technology" strategy to one more aligned with economic fundamentals [9][10] - The concept of a "transformation bull market" is highlighted, with expectations that the market may challenge historical highs, particularly the 5178.19 points reached in June 2015 [10][11] Group 4: Investment Preferences - Analysts suggest that traditional sectors may offer better investment value compared to technology stocks, given their current low valuations and market expectations [11][12] - Recommendations for investors include a balanced approach between value and growth, with a focus on gradual investment strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [12]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model, increasing the proportion of resident consumption in GDP, moving away from reliance on exports and investments [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation for the next year is that the revaluation of Chinese assets will deepen, with equity investors shifting focus from the previous two years' strategies of "left-hand dividends, right-hand technology" to sectors more closely tied to economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - There will be increased attention on cyclical sectors such as energy, consumption, and real estate, particularly on high-quality leading companies within these "old economy" sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved the "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Land Spatial Planning (2021-2035)", which serves as a national-level guideline for sustainable spatial development in the Chengdu-Chongqing area, aiming to enhance its role as a significant economic and innovation center in China [1]. Group 1: Spatial Development and Safety - By 2035, the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle will maintain a cultivated land area of no less than 74.18 million acres, with permanent basic farmland protection of at least 63.28 million acres and ecological protection redline of no less than 15,800 square kilometers [2]. - Urban development boundaries will be controlled to expand no more than 1.32 times the scale of urban construction land based on 2020 data, and total water usage will not exceed national quotas [2]. Group 2: New Development Pattern - The planning emphasizes the integration of regional development strategies to optimize productivity layout and enhance overall competitiveness, supporting the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and deepening integration into the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3]. Group 3: Land Use and Ecological Protection - The plan aims to balance agricultural, ecological, and urban functions, promoting high-quality integrated development in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle while protecting key ecological areas [4]. - It includes the establishment of a modern infrastructure network to enhance the region's role as a transportation hub, focusing on building a world-class airport cluster and a comprehensive transportation hub [4]. Group 4: Implementation and Governance - The planning document is a comprehensive framework for land protection, development, utilization, and restoration, requiring strict adherence and monitoring to prevent unauthorized modifications [5][6]. - Local governments are tasked with organizing leadership, clarifying responsibilities, and ensuring that the planning goals are integrated into local spatial planning systems [6].

Group 1 - The 2026 Investment Summit hosted by Huatai Securities focused on macroeconomic trends and market opportunities in the context of China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1][3] - The summit highlighted a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model, emphasizing the importance of improving the proportion of household consumption in GDP [3] - Huatai Securities predicts a deepening revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as energy, consumption, and real estate, particularly favoring high-quality leaders in the "old economy" [3][4] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Chief Macro Economist provided forecasts indicating that China's nominal GDP growth in USD terms could rebound to 8.6% in 2026, marking the first visible acceleration since 2021 [4] - The expected appreciation of the RMB is projected to reach an exchange rate of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026 [4] - The stock market is anticipated to shift from being driven by sentiment and valuation to a focus on earnings verification in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to return to a fundamental logic, with key factors such as nominal GDP, financing demand, and stock-bond valuation ratios becoming critical [5] - The overall market may experience a slightly weaker and more volatile pattern due to limited upward pressure on interest rates, despite supportive monetary policy [6] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, utilizing a "all-weather" approach to mitigate risks and achieve stable long-term returns [6] Group 4 - The "old economy" is viewed positively due to its low valuations, low market expectations, and strong recovery potential from cyclical lows [8] - Investment strategies should balance value and growth, with a recommendation for dollar-cost averaging and phased entry into positions, particularly during the end of the year and early next year [8] - The market is expected to gradually rebalance from growth to cyclical and value styles, with an emphasis on low-valuation, high-capitalization companies with strong profitability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Investment Summit hosted by Huatai Securities focuses on the macroeconomic landscape and market opportunities in the context of China's 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The economic growth rate for China is expected to rebound to 8.6% in 2026, marking the first visible acceleration since 2021, driven by improved corporate profitability and a stable export outlook [7]. - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [7]. - The real estate sector's deleveraging impact on credit cycles and corporate cash flows is expected to diminish [7]. Group 2: Market Trends - The focus for equity investors is shifting from technology and dividends to cyclical sectors such as energy, consumption, and real estate, particularly high-quality leaders in the "old economy" [6][11]. - The stock market is predicted to transition towards performance verification in 2026, moving away from sentiment-driven dynamics [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of balancing value and growth in investment strategies, particularly favoring the "old economy" due to its low valuations and market expectations [12]. - Investors are advised to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, particularly in the latter part of the year, as historical trends suggest a preference for value styles during this period [12]. - The recommendation includes focusing on "true value" sectors, particularly those with low valuations and strong profitability, primarily in domestic and Hong Kong financial and consumer sectors [13].

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies' profitability showed a modest increase in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-financial profits grew by only 1.5% [1][5][20]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector grew by 2.8%, 4.2%, and 1.5% respectively [1][5]. - Non-financial operating revenue experienced a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector were 1.6%, 5.7%, and -1.6% respectively, indicating a negative growth for non-financial profits [1][19]. Sector Analysis - The real estate and export sectors saw a slowdown in growth compared to Q1, with PPI's year-on-year decline further widening, impacting non-financial revenue growth and profit margins [1]. - The financial sector remained active in Q2, with the securities and insurance industries experiencing a profit growth of 16.6%, driven by a 49.2% increase in securities profits and a 5.9% increase in insurance profits [1][19]. - The main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw year-on-year profit changes of -2.7%, +4.1%, and +24.5% respectively in Q2 [1][19]. Economic Segmentation - The new economy's profitability improved by 6.8% year-on-year in Q2, while the old economy turned negative with a decline of 8.3% [1][19]. - Profit growth in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors was -16.3%, +3.7%, and +1.7% respectively, with upstream performance weakened by the widening PPI decline [1][19]. Industry Highlights - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream areas performed well, with specific growth characteristics including: - Energy and raw materials sector profits increased by 12.7%, 77.5%, and 40.5% for industrial metals, precious metals, and rare metals respectively [18]. - The midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and new energy, saw a profit increase of 26.8% [18]. - The consumer sector's profitability was supported by price and cost reductions, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery profits up by 20.4% [18]. Profit Distribution - The profitability of energy raw materials as a percentage of total profits decreased from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.8% in Q2 2025 [1][14]. Performance Quality - Non-financial ROE remained stable, with upstream sectors experiencing a decline while midstream sectors stabilized [24][25]. - A-share companies' cash flow statements showed improvement, with operating cash flow reaching the highest level since 2010 [31][34]. - Capital expenditure growth improved, with new economy sectors showing positive growth for the first time since Q2 2024 [39][41].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the behavior of northbound capital in the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on the food and beverage, home appliance, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, real estate, and construction materials industries. Core Insights and Arguments - In Q2 2025, northbound capital significantly reduced its holdings in the food and beverage sector, with a total reduction of 13.8 billion yuan, indicating a negative outlook on economic conditions [1][3] - The home appliance sector experienced a reduction of 17.9 billion yuan, marking it as the sector with the highest reduction in holdings [3] - Notable white horse stocks closely tied to the Chinese economy, such as Midea, were significantly sold off, reflecting a contrarian view on economic prosperity [1][3] - Conversely, northbound capital increased its investments in telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, driven by clear industry trends, interest rate cuts, and overall sector performance [1][3] - The real estate and construction materials sectors saw increased investments based on policy dynamics and supply-side clearing logic, despite weak demand indicators [1][3] - Among large-cap stocks (market capitalization over 10 billion yuan), Kweichow Moutai and Midea were the most sold, while Ningde Times and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical saw the most significant increases in holdings [1][3] - Zijin Mining also received notable net inflows, indicating a shift in investment focus [1][3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The banking sector showed a mixed response from northbound capital, with some banks being sold off while others were accumulated. Overall, the banking sector saw a net inflow of 500 million yuan, which is negligible compared to the total northbound holdings exceeding 200 billion yuan [4][5] - The investment focus in new sectors primarily centered on innovative pharmaceuticals and telecommunications, which were key areas for increased investment in Q2 [6] - A notable trend was the shift from core assets to traditional sectors and from old tracks to new tracks, exemplified by the selling of Kweichow Moutai and the buying of Zijin Mining [2][6]