文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 2 、土地溢价率反弹。 截至 1 月 25 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 3.6% 。近四周平均为 1.7% 。去 年 12 月为 1.63% 。 3 、外贸：集装箱吞吐量四周同比稳中有升 。截至 1 月 26 当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -4.4% ，上周环比为 0.6% ，四周同比为 7.7% ，截至上周四周同比为 7.6% ，去年 12 月底四周 同比为 7.2% 。 4 、价格：农产品及油价上涨 。鸡蛋批价上涨 3.1% ，猪肉批价上涨 0.6% ，羊肉批价上涨 1% 。 美油收于 65.2 美元 / 桶，上涨 6.8% ，布油收于 70.7 美元 / 桶，上涨 7.3% 。 5 、二手房挂牌价 ：继续反弹， 一线上涨 0.3% ，全国上涨 0.5% 。 景气向下 1 、 商品房住宅销售仍低于去年农历同期 。 截至 1 月 31 日当周， 67 城商品房住宅成交面积同比 去年农历同期 -20% ，降幅较前一周有所收窄。 1 月商品房成交面积同比为 -17% 。去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including macroeconomic activity, real estate, consumer goods, infrastructure, trade, and commodity prices. Group 1: Economic Activity - The Huachuang Macro WEI index increased to 8.15% as of January 18, up from 5.28% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity, potentially influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [2] - The weekly container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a 0.6% increase week-on-week and a 7.6% year-on-year increase as of January 19 [22] - Movie box office revenues improved significantly, with a year-on-year decline of only 23% as of January 18, compared to a 55.3% decline in early November [8] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Goods - The sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39% in 67 cities as of January 24, worsening from a 35% decline earlier in the month [3] - Retail sales of passenger cars remained negative, with a year-on-year decline of 22% as of January 18, although this was an improvement from a 32% decline previously [3] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities was 1.59% as of January 18, showing low volatility [12] Group 3: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity remains weak, with the cement dispatch rate falling to 26.4% as of January 23, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants slightly decreased to 26.8% as of January 22, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [18] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showed a year-on-year decline of 4% as of January 16 [18] Group 4: Trade - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% as of January 19 [22] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 28.8% year-on-year as of January 23 [23] - South Korea's exports increased by 14.9% year-on-year in early January, with semiconductor exports rising significantly [21] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices have generally risen, with gold prices reaching $4936 per ounce, up 7.5%, and oil prices increasing to $61.6 per barrel, up 2.7% [41] - Agricultural product prices have also increased, with egg prices rising by 7.2% and pork prices by 2.3% [42] - The lithium carbonate price surged by 14.9%, reflecting strong demand in the market [44] Group 6: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy - As of January 23, the funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 at 1.3983% and DR007 at 1.4935% [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to increase total spending while optimizing the structure and improving efficiency, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring financial stability [45][46]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.05% as of January 4, 2026, an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous week[2] - Subway passenger volume in 26 cities increased by 6% year-on-year in the first week of January, while domestic flight operations averaged 12,400 flights per day, down 0.6% year-on-year[2] - Container throughput at Chinese ports rebounded slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, 2026, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% over the past four weeks[2] Real Estate and Construction - Residential property sales in 67 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 43% in the first ten days of January, compared to a 24% decline in December 2025[3] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities fell to 0.45% as of January 4, 2026, down from 1.64% in December 2025[3] - Cement shipment rates dropped to 29% as of January 2, 2026, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week[3] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $4,473 per ounce, an increase of 3.6%, while copper prices reached $12,990 per ton, up 3.8%[2] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI at $59.1 per barrel (up 3.1%) and Brent at $63.3 per barrel (up 4.3%)[2] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 15.6% in the latest trading session[2] Financial Markets - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference stood at 4.25, indicating a high relative value for equities compared to bonds[9] - New special bond issuance in early January totaled 874 billion yuan, significantly higher than zero in the same period last year[4] - Interest rates fell post-year-end, with DR001 at 1.2727% and DR007 at 1.4727%, reflecting decreases of 5.98 and 50.94 basis points respectively since December 31, 2025[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators, including the performance of the macroeconomic WEI index, consumer demand, production levels, trade activities, and price movements in various commodities [2][3][4][25][36]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to 6.05% as of January 4, up by 0.46 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - In the first week of January, subway passenger volume in 26 cities increased by 6% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations averaged 12,400 flights per day, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [2][15]. - Container throughput at Chinese ports rebounded slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline, with a 43% year-on-year drop in transaction area for commercial housing in 67 cities during the first ten days of January, compared to a 24% decline in December [3][16]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities fell to 0.45% as of January 4, down from 1.64% in December [3][16]. Group 3: Production Trends - Construction activity is declining, with cement shipment rates dropping to 29% as of January 2, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - The operating rate of asphalt plants also decreased to 25.4% as of January 7, down 2 percentage points week-on-week [3][18]. Group 4: Trade Activities - Container throughput at ports showed a slight rebound, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. - The number of outbound vessels from Chinese ports increased by 42.1% year-on-year in the first ten days of January [25]. Group 5: Price Movements - Prices of gold, copper, and oil have all risen, with COMEX gold reaching $4,473 per ounce (up 3.6%), LME copper at $12,990 per ton (up 3.8%), and Brent crude oil at $63.3 per barrel (up 4.3%) [2][36]. - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 15.6% in the same period [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others reflect ongoing challenges in various sectors [2][3][20]. Group 2 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight increase to 5.17% as of December 14, up 1.05% from December 7, indicating a recovery in economic activity [2][8]. - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the second week of December, compared to -32% previously [2][13]. - The prices of three major new energy products have risen significantly, with industrial silicon up 3.1%, polysilicon up 6.4%, and lithium carbonate up 16.4% [2][36]. Group 3 - Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with only a few exceptions like Tangshan's blast furnaces showing stability [3][17]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes has dropped significantly, with first-tier cities down 0.6% and a cumulative decline of 6.2% for the year [3][38]. - The construction sector shows signs of weakness, with asphalt operating rates declining to an average of 27.8% from 34.4% earlier [9][17]. Group 4 - The port container throughput has increased year-on-year by 10.6%, although it has decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous week [2][20]. - The export container throughput from Chinese ports has shown a recovery, with a year-on-year increase in the number of outbound vessels [20][21]. - The overall import situation in the U.S. has rebounded, but imports from China remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of -27.6% [22][23]. Group 5 - The current stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference stands at 2.65, indicating a favorable allocation value for stocks compared to bonds [11]. - The interest rates for various financial instruments have shown slight fluctuations, with DR001 at 1.2706% and DR007 at 1.4413% as of December 19 [48][49]. - The government is expected to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of fiscal policies [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with rising gold prices and declining consumer and production metrics, indicating potential challenges in various sectors of the economy [2][31]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to approximately 3%, down 3.59 points from the previous week, primarily due to a holiday effect impacting real estate transactions and vehicle sales [2][10]. - Subway passenger transport growth turned negative, with a 3% year-on-year decline in 27 cities compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][14]. - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant decline, with a 27% year-on-year drop in transaction area as of October 18, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [4][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have turned negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7% as of October 12, contrasting with a 6% increase in September [16]. - The growth rate of express delivery volume has slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in the first two weeks of October, down from 12% in the previous month [4][16]. - Prices of pork and eggs have dropped significantly, with pork prices down 3.9% and egg prices down 4.4% [5][31]. Group 3: Production and Infrastructure - Infrastructure activity has noticeably declined, with the operating rate of asphalt plants at 35.8%, down 4.3% from pre-holiday levels [4][19]. - The apparent consumption of rebar has decreased by 18% year-on-year as of October 17, indicating weaker demand in construction [19][24]. - Industrial production metrics show a decline in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port, with a year-on-year increase of only 6% as of October 17, down from 19% in September [19][24]. Group 4: Trade and Exports - Port container throughput has decreased by 6.1% week-on-week as of October 12, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping to 5.3% [26][27]. - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. has significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 34.8% in mid-October [27]. - Export demand remains stable, with shipping rates for European routes showing a rebound, while North American routes also see price increases [26][27]. Group 5: Price Trends - Gold prices have surged to $4,304 per ounce, marking a 6.2% increase, while oil prices have continued to decline [31][36]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.3% as of October 6, with a cumulative decline of 3.1% this year [38][40]. - The price index for industrial silicon futures has decreased by 1%, while polysilicon futures have increased by 6.3% [31][40]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.4434%, 1.5899%, and 1.8246%, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [54][53]. - The government plans to issue new local government debt limits for 2026, with a focus on supporting major strategic projects [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward indicators in various sectors, including consumer behavior, production, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the impact of external factors such as tariffs and commodity prices [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Durable goods consumption shows a recovery in retail sales of passenger cars, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in September compared to 3% in August [2][15]. - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, indicating a continued recovery in external demand [3][24]. - The macroeconomic activity index from Huachuang Securities declined to 6.26% as of October 5, down from 6.65% the previous week [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, with a 33% year-on-year drop in residential property sales in 67 cities during the first ten days of October, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][15]. - Non-durable goods consumption growth has slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 4.5% as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous month [3][15]. - Service consumption, particularly subway ridership, has turned negative, with a 4.8% decline in the first ten days of October compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][13]. Group 3: Production and Trade - The apparent consumption of rebar remains weaker than the previous year, with a 10% year-on-year decline as of October 9 [3][17]. - The OECD leading indicator for external demand continues to rise, suggesting potential improvements in trade dynamics, although direct trade with the U.S. is showing signs of decline [3][24]. - The prices of gold and copper have increased, with gold reaching $3986.2 per ounce (up 2.7%) and copper at $10,765 per ton (up 1.9%) [4][38]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Long-term bond yields have decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8206%, down 3.99 basis points from September 30 [5][57]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations indicate an escalation in tariff tensions, with a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1 [4][26]. - New policy measures are being implemented to support various industries, particularly in the non-ferrous sector, with recommendations for price adjustments to alleviate industry losses [4][22].

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]

Travel Insights - During the National Day holiday, inter-regional passenger flow increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slower than the 7.9% growth during the May Day holiday[2] - Air travel and railway growth rates were below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel saw higher growth, with waterway passenger transport up by 8.7%[12] Retail Performance - Retail sales for key enterprises grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales[3] - Home appliances and green food consumption achieved double-digit growth, with green organic food sales up by 20.1%[18] Price Trends - Food prices remained stable, while some regions saw a decline in liquor prices; for instance, the average price of movie tickets dropped nearly 8% year-on-year[4] - Airfare prices increased by 9.2% compared to the previous year, while hotel prices varied significantly between first-tier and lower-tier cities[24] Movie Industry - Box office revenue for the National Day holiday was down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues with popular films released in the preceding months[26] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macroeconomic activity index was at 6.65% as of September 28, showing a decline of 2.12 percentage points from the previous week[28] - The manufacturing PMI remained above the growth line at 50.8%, indicating resilience in external demand[38]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index rose to 8.78% as of September 21, up 1.23 percentage points from the previous week, driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][9]. - High-frequency data for infrastructure shows a recovery, with asphalt plant operating rates at 40.1%, up 11.1% year-on-year and 5.7% week-on-week [2][20]. - The port container throughput remains high, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.4%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous week's 10.9% [2][26]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a weekly year-on-year increase of 9% in the third week of September, but the cumulative monthly growth remains low at 0.7% [3][15]. - The sales of residential properties maintained positive growth but showed a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in the first 26 days of September compared to 15% in the previous two weeks [3][15]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 2.8% in the first three weeks of September, down from 3.61% in August [3][15]. Group 3: Production and Industry - The construction sector has seen a recovery in high-frequency data, with both asphalt and cement dispatch rates improving compared to last year [2][20]. - Industrial production indicators show a year-on-year increase of 23.4% in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port as of September 28, compared to 8.2% in August [20]. - The steel industry has introduced a growth stabilization plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% over the next two years, with strict controls on new capacity [25][21]. Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The S&P manufacturing PMI for major economies (US and Europe) fell to 49.2 in September, down from 50.2 in August, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [26]. - The US announced new tariffs effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture, which may impact related industries [28]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased to $3734.2 per ounce, up 1.3%, while oil prices also saw significant gains, with WTI crude at $65.7 per barrel, up 4.9% [2][39]. - The domestic coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 701 yuan per ton, down 0.4%, while the price of cement increased by 2.5% [40][42]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.3825%, 1.6234%, and 1.8768%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [58][44]. - A total of 593 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of September 29, with 494 billion yuan designated for special bonds [44].