European shares were mixed in early trading while Asian shares mostly fell on Friday after a respite from Wall Street's recent feverish rally. The price of gold also pulled back from record highs following recent torrid runs.The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up less than 0.1%. ...

来源：市场资讯 9月往往是美国股市一年中最具挑战性的月份，但到目前为止，美股整体表现良好。 当地时间9月29日，市场无视美政府可能要再关门的消息，美股主要股指依旧上涨。预测市场平台 Kalshi和Polymarket的交易员认为，本周美国政府关门的可能性超过60%，但投资者正在从容应对这种 风险，选择关注更积极的信号。 金融服务公司Corpay首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔（Karl Schamotta）认为，投资者对美国政府关门的可 能性越来越不屑一顾，同时押注美国经济可以持续增长。"本周开始时，市场一直呈现坚定的乐观态 度。"沙莫塔引用数据表示，因为美国第二季度GDP年化季率终值被大幅上修为3.8%，高于此前3.3%的 修正值，为自2023年第三季度录得4.7%增长以来的最强劲表现。 沙莫塔将美国政府关门这种事描述为"通常是闹剧而不是悲剧"。 瑞银全球财富管理美洲首席投资官兼全球股票主管乌尔丽克·霍夫曼-布尔查迪（Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi）也表示，不认为美国政府关门对投资者来说是一个重大风险事件。 "我们建议投资者摆脱对政府关门的担忧，关注其他市场驱动因素，例如美联储持续降息和强劲 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：小白读财经） 当地时间周二，美联储主席鲍威尔在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会的一场活动上语出惊人地说：美股价格相 对偏高。 他说，从很多指标来看，例如股市价格，目前确实相对偏高。 他还说，美联储目前的货币政策立场是"适度限制的"，如果降息过快、幅度过大，可能会让通胀继续徘 徊在3%附近，而不是接近美联储2%的目标；反之，如果过久维持紧缩政策，则可能会不必要地压制劳 动力市场。 什么意思？ 为什么说股票是"抗通胀"资产？ 想象一下，如果你不买股票，你的钱会去哪里？一是存在银行。如果通胀率是5%，而银行存款利息只 有2%，那你实际上每年还在亏3%的购买力。二是成实物（比如黄金、房子）。这些确实是抗通胀的好 方法，但它们有缺点，比如交易不方便、门槛高。 美联储降不降息，有两个要素，一是低通胀，二是高失业率。但现在通胀和失业率发出自相矛盾的信 号：高通胀、高失业率。一个不支持降息，另一个支持。鲍威尔说目前货币政策立场是"适度限制的"， 间接地说他偏向于降息，也就是现在更侧重关注失业率。 但鲍威尔也说，通胀的近期风险偏向上行，同时也说股市价格相对偏高。 言外之意，我认为鲍威尔明白通胀率和美股是一体的 ...

Core Viewpoint - US stocks are maintaining near record levels as investors assess the sustainability of the market rally amidst potential policy and political risks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Investors are closely monitoring the performance of US stocks, which are hovering near record highs [1] - The market rally's durability is under scrutiny as investors weigh various risks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Anticipation is building around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming statements, which could impact market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lower interest rates alone do not ensure that the market rally will persist, according to analysts [1] Group 1 - Analysts emphasize that while lower interest rates can provide a boost to the market, other factors must also be considered for sustained growth [1] - The current economic environment suggests that reliance solely on interest rate cuts may not be sufficient to maintain investor confidence [1] - Market participants are advised to look beyond interest rates to assess the overall health of the economy and potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo stock market indices rebounded on September 18, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 1.15% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increasing by 0.41% due to encouragement from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed up by 513.05 points at 45303.43 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 13.04 points to 3158.87 points [1] - Early trading saw a slight increase in indices, followed by profit-taking that led to a temporary decline, before the market rebounded [1] Sector Analysis - Semiconductor-related stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Discus showed significant gains, contributing to the rise in the Nikkei index [1] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, sectors like electrical products, non-ferrous metals, and metal products saw notable increases, while sectors such as electric and gas utilities, other products, and air transportation experienced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks often do not respond positively to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating a complex relationship between monetary policy and market performance [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Historical data shows that after the Fed cuts interest rates, stock prices may decline rather than increase, which contradicts the typical expectation of a market rally [1] - The immediate aftermath of rate cuts can lead to increased volatility in stock markets, as investors reassess their positions and expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Rate cuts are generally intended to stimulate economic growth, but the mixed reactions from the stock market suggest that investors may have concerns about underlying economic conditions [1] - The effectiveness of rate cuts in boosting market confidence can vary significantly depending on the broader economic context and investor sentiment at the time [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and its economic projections to determine whether the current stock rally will continue or if it will lead to a market downturn [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision is a critical factor influencing market sentiment [1] - Economic projections from the Federal Reserve will play a significant role in shaping investor expectations [1] - The outcome of these decisions could either sustain the stock market rally or trigger a decline [1]

Core Insights - Major US indexes are reaching record highs, indicating a strong stock market performance [1] - Signs of economic deceleration are becoming apparent, suggesting potential challenges ahead for the economy [1] - There is growing optimism regarding a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could provide a boost to the US economy [1] Economic Indicators - Record highs in major US indexes reflect investor confidence and market strength [1] - Economic deceleration signals may impact future growth and investment strategies [1] - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut could lead to increased consumer spending and investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decrease in household deposits in July indicates a potential shift of funds from savings to other investment avenues, possibly driven by declining interest rates and a desire for better returns [1][4][5] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits in RMB decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - Non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Behavior - The reaction to the news suggests that many believe the stock market's rebound has motivated residents to move their funds into equities, contributing to the market's upward momentum [3] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the "moved" deposits have actually entered the stock market versus other investment forms [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The continuous decline in interest rates has led to a lack of trust in savings, prompting residents to seek ways to preserve and grow their wealth [4] - The management's intention appears to be encouraging residents to shift savings into consumption and other economically stimulating areas rather than keeping them in low-interest bank accounts [5] Group 4: Challenges and Concerns - There is a significant gap between the management's hopes for increased consumption and the residents' willingness to invest, as many face financial pressures such as housing loans and rising living costs [5][9] - The forced reduction of insurance product returns alongside lower savings rates may push residents to seek investment opportunities abroad, complicating the domestic financial landscape [5][7] Group 5: Market Stability - For the stock market to be a viable option for residents, it must be stable and not subject to extreme fluctuations that could deter investment [9] - The focus should be on ensuring that investors, particularly retail investors, can profit from the market, which would encourage a more favorable environment for the movement of household deposits [9]