【1】关于马士基迈出"重要一步"，朝重返红海航行推进新加坡籍的 Maersk Sebarok 本周在驶往美国东海岸途 中,通过了由胡塞武装控制的曼德海峡。马士基成为最新一家"试水"红海航行的班轮公司,安排一艘6.500 TEU的 西行集装箱船，经由位于水道南端、由胡塞武装控制的曼德海峡通过。但该公司周五发布的公告退速强调，这并不 童 意味着其航线将大规模重返红海。自两年前也门胡塞武装开始对商船发动袭击以来，红海基本上对商业航运处于" 新 马士基表示："虽然这是向前迈出的重要一步，但这并不意味着我们已经到了考虑将更广泛的东西向航线网络调整 回经苏伊士运河通道的时候。"【2】欧洲主要港口已经开始为一个"不可避免"的情景做准备 -- 经贸望角统航的 船舶与经苏伊士航线的船舶在港口集中到港，这将对整个供应链产生连锁反应。【3】赫伯罗特因客户反对，放弃在 印度—美国东海岸航线恢复苏伊士运河通行根据行业数据,截至今年11月,赫伯罗特在印度—美国东海岸（USEC） 航线上占据主导地位,全年处理货量约30.35万TEU,约占该航线市场的23%。 【EC】 行情综述:下跌。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Middle East MR freight rates experienced a mild increase over the weekend, with the TC17 35kt Middle East/East Africa route index rising to WS230, an increase of 10 points [9] - In the UK-Europe market, MR freight rates saw a significant decline, with the TC2 37kt ARA/US Atlantic Coast route index dropping by 12.5 points to WS136, and the Baltic round trip TCE decreasing by 15% to slightly above $14,000 per day [9] - The US Gulf MR freight rates continued to decline, with the TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Europe route falling from WS179 to WS166, and the Baltic round trip TCE dropping from $24,100 to $21,600 per day [9] Group 2: Specific Vessel Types - The Capesize market showed a notable decline, with the Baltic Capesize route (5TC) dropping from $41,571 to $30,731, indicating increasing freight rate pressure [1] - The Panamax market started weakly, particularly in the Atlantic, with the Baltic Panamax route (5TC) averaging $15,194, reflecting limited activity [2] - The Supramax market faced challenges, with the Atlantic and Pacific markets both under pressure, and notable transactions included a 38,000 dwt vessel from Rio de Janeiro to the East Coast of Mexico at $21,500 [4] Group 3: Oil Tanker Market - The LR2 market in the Middle East remained stable, with the TC1 75kt Middle East/Japan route index holding at WS155, corresponding to a TCE of approximately $37,000-$39,000 per day [5][6] - The VLCC market remained stable across all Baltic routes, with the Middle East Gulf to China route (TD3C, 270,000 tons) rate increasing to WS125.78, corresponding to a TCE of $122,676 per day [12] - The Suezmax market showed overall stability, with the Nigeria to UK Continent route (TD20, 130,000 tons) maintaining a rate of WS126, corresponding to a TCE of approximately $61,400 per day [13] Group 4: LNG and LPG Markets - The LNG market softened, with major route rates adjusting after a strong two-month increase, particularly on the BLNG2 US Gulf-Europe route, which saw a significant drop of $16,800 to $115,000 per day [17] - The LPG market exhibited a divergence, with the Eastern market under pressure and the Western market showing increased activity, leading to higher rates on routes such as the Houston-Far East route, which rose by $7.83 to $129.50 [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 of $6.75 per share, compared to $6.5 per share in Q3 2024, reflecting a slight increase [9] - Adjusted net income decreased by $2.7 million to $124.1 million in Q3 2025 from $126.8 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased operating costs and decreased dividend income [10] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 1.5% to $181.6 million in Q3 2025 from $178.9 million in Q3 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vessel operating expenses increased by $2.4 million to $52.3 million in Q3 2025, attributed to a higher average number of vessels in the fleet [11] - Daily operating costs slightly increased to $6,927 per vessel per day in Q3 2025 from $6,860 in Q3 2024 [11] - The container segment experienced a $4.3 million decrease in revenues due to lower contracted charter rates [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The charter market remains robust with an all-time low idle fleet, and demand for mid-size and larger vessels continues unabated [4][5] - The company has secured new charters for vessels extending as far out as early 2028, indicating strong future demand [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is selectively extending its new building program at below-market prices and has secured multi-year employment for new orders [5] - The company plans to opportunistically invest in the dry bulk Capesize market segment, expecting outsized returns due to supply constraints [8] - A quarterly dividend increase to $0.90 per share was announced, consistent with the policy of yearly increases [8][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, impacting global trade dynamics [4] - The de-escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has allowed trade to resume, contributing to high container traffic [4] - Management expressed uncertainty about the strength of the market in 2026, indicating that the situation remains fluid [22][23] Other Important Information - The company completed a $500 million unsecured seven-year bond offering with a 6.85% coupon, enhancing its financial flexibility [6][7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported cash of $596 million and total liquidity of $971 million [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on container shipping chartering activity and demand - Management noted that despite lower trade and tariffs, demand for charters remains high due to global production capacity and market dynamism outside traditional Western areas [20][22] Question: Update on Capesize vessel investment and future plans - The company aims to grow its investment in the dry bulk market selectively, focusing on high-quality second-hand vessels rather than new builds [25] Question: Share repurchase program activity - Management confirmed that the share buyback program continues, albeit at a smaller pace, as they believe the stock is undervalued [26][27] Question: Update on investment in Star Bulk and interest in other segments - Management expressed satisfaction with the investment in Star Bulk and indicated no current plans to expand into other segments like Panamaxes or Supramaxes [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the shipping industry. 2. Core View - Mainstream shipping companies have initiated price increase announcements for the second half of November, boosting the EC futures market. The spot freight rate decline slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to changes in the settlement index rhythm caused by vessel rolling and delays in late October. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to announce price increases. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section I. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance** - On November 4, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1909.9 points, up 3.14% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index reported on November 4 was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% week - on - week, while the SCFI European line reported on October 31 was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% week - on - week [6][7]. - Shipping companies such as CMA, HPL, and MSC have announced price increases for the second half of November, with targets between $3000 - 3100/FEU [7]. - **Logic Analysis** - Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise. For example, HPL plans to raise the price to $3100 in the second half of November from around $2000 in the first half. CMA announced a price increase to $3000/FEU in the second half of November and set the online price at $3500 in December [8]. - From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in October, November, and December is 241,100 TEU, 260,400 TEU, and 289,200 TEU respectively, with a slight increase in December [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral trading: Wait and see as the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected while waiting for the implementation of price increases [9]. - Arbitrage trading: Wait and see [10]. II. Industry News - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has a fleet capacity of over 7 million TEU, accounting for 21.2% of the market share [11]. - The third - quarter corrugated carton shipments in the US fell to the lowest level since 2015, intensifying concerns about the holiday sales season [11]. - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [11]. - Diplomatic responses were made regarding the potential US tariff increase on China and the situation in the Israel - Palestine conflict [11][12]. III. Related Attachments The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US - West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and other institutions [15][17][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors. The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, but the short - term nature of the agreement may not bring long - term confidence to importers. The EC market is in a volatile state, and in the short - term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will support the market, but the market has already factored in some premiums [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1551, up 10.49% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1021, up 2.89%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have all increased significantly [3][4] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most have seen a decline in value compared to the previous period. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1379.6, down 1.69% from the previous value. In terms of positions, most contracts have increased in position size, such as EC2606 with a position increase of 110 [4][5] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 12 - 02 month - to - month spread is currently 250.4, down 10.4 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 642.9, down 25.0; and the 02 - 04 spread is 392.5, down 14.6 [5] Market Analysis - **Sino - US Trade Policy Impact**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the relaxation of some trade policies, which alleviated the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on US routes, it also improves the outlook for European routes. However, the short - term nature of the agreement may not provide long - term confidence to importers [5] - **EC Market**: The EC market is in a volatile state. Spot prices vary among different shipping companies. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. The recommendation is to go long on the main contract at low prices and closely monitor suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [6] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates are in a downward channel, and the decline is expected to slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year due to tariff suppression. The 10 - contract valuation has room to decline, and trading strategies include weak oscillations for single - sided trading and specific arbitrage operations [8][9][11]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - and - a - half - month high. Large - vessel market freight rates are expected to be supported in the short term but lack strong upward momentum. Medium - vessel market transportation demand has certain support and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The oil transportation market shows obvious differentiation. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Data** - **Futures Disk**: On September 17, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1,109.7, down 60.0 or 5.13%. Different contracts showed different price and volume changes [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1440.24 points, down 8.06% week - on - week and 62.24% year - on - year. Different routes had different freight rate changes [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategies** - **Analysis**: Spot freight rates are falling, and the impact of the closure of the Polish border on China - Europe freight trains continues. The freight rate center in the second half of September dropped to around 1400 - 1700 US dollars/FEU. The market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and tariffs [8][9]. - **Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be weakly oscillating. For the 10 - contract, short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage operations at low levels and enter 2 - 4 positive arbitrage at low levels [11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 0.05% to 2154 points. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 1.1% to 3189 points, while the Panamax vessel freight index fell 1.8% to 1968 points [18][19]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels had different freight rate changes on September 16 and as of September 12 [18][20]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazilian grain exports in September are expected to increase [21]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The rise in Capesize vessel freight rates offset the decline of smaller vessels. The large - vessel market is supported by Australian end - of - season cargo releases, but the cargo volume is expected to decrease from mid - October. The medium - vessel market has certain transportation demand support, mainly in a fluctuating trend [22]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1137, up 0.8% week - on - week and 26.76% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 609, up 0.66% week - on - week and down 4.55% year - on - year [28][29]. - **Average Earnings**: VLCC average earnings were $57,975 per day, up 58.71% week - on - week and 90.00% year - on - year; Suezmax average earnings were $45,871 per day, up 43.38% week - on - week and down 14.04% year - on - year [28]. - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [28]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. The VLCC market is improving due to tight supply and slightly higher - than - expected cargo volume [29]. - **Industry News** - OPEC+ representatives will discuss updating member production capacity estimates in Vienna from September 18 - 19, aiming to determine new production baselines and 2027 production targets [30]. - On September 15, oil prices continued to rise due to supply interruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Trump's call for NATO to stop buying Russian oil [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is under pressure. The 2510 contract is currently pricing in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [10][13] - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1,203.8 points, down 5.28%, with an increase of 2,187 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1,609.1 points, down 4.07%, with an increase of 1,417 lots in positions [1][10] Freight Rates - The 38 - week freight rate center has further declined to around $1,650/FEU. Conservatively estimated, the cumulative decline in the 39th and 40th weeks is $100/FEU, and the center may fall to around $1,550/FEU. Different alliances have different pricing and adjustment situations [11] Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity has been slightly revised down from 276,000 TEU/week to 267,000 TEU/week. The year - on - year growth rate of capacity in October is 1.1%, a significant decline compared to July - September. The suspension of sailings by shipping companies during the National Day holiday is relatively strong. In November, there are 6 pending voyages, 3 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 302,000 TEU/week [12] Contract Analysis - The 2510 contract may mainly reflect the freight rate quotes from the 40th to 42nd weeks. The current price may have priced in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [13] Strategy - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Zhonggu Logistics, focusing on its performance in the logistics industry for the first half of 2025. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit reached 1.072 billion yuan, with 1 billion yuan attributed to sustainable income, 750 million yuan from foreign trade, and 250 million yuan from domestic trade [1][5][2]. - The second quarter saw a decline in non-GAAP net profit compared to the first quarter, primarily due to lower domestic freight rates and a lack of asset disposal gains, which were 70 million yuan in the first quarter [1][3][4]. - The company's operating costs increased due to a reduction in loaded tonnage to 1.2 million tons, resulting in a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic logistics market experienced a 40% reduction in capacity compared to the previous year, leading to a contraction in domestic trade volume despite a slight recovery in freight rates [2][5]. - Conversely, foreign trade capacity increased by approximately 40% year-on-year, with leasing prices remaining high, contributing to better performance in foreign trade [2]. - The competitive landscape in the domestic market has stabilized, with expectations for freight rates to rise in the fourth quarter, driven by historical trends [9][10][11]. Cost Structure and Challenges - The mismatch between capacity and cargo volume has been a significant factor in rising costs, with a 15% increase noted in the first half of the year [7][8]. - Fixed asset depreciation has also contributed to increased costs per container, despite the company maintaining industry-leading efficiency [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in freight rates in the fourth quarter, contingent on demand stability [10][12]. - The foreign trade segment faces uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs, but the overall trend remains positive [10][12]. - The company has successfully signed long-term contracts for foreign trade vessel leases, with all contracts post-April 2025 being for two years or more [13]. Investment and Dividend Strategy - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 84% in the mid-year report, with plans to maintain a minimum of 60% for the full year [16]. - Management is focused on exploring new business directions to achieve growth beyond existing domestic and foreign container operations [17]. Additional Insights - Demand for small vessels in the foreign trade market remains strong, with ongoing negotiations for potential deployment despite cost challenges [14]. - The company aims to enhance investor returns through improved dividend strategies and innovative business developments [16][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market is in a weak oscillation. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased due to Powell's speech, and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture has led to pre - shipment rush. The short - term market still has room to decline [5]. - The current shipping market demand is continuously weak. The spot freight rate is under obvious pressure due to more overtime ships in late August. The market has turned to buyer - dominated, and there is no clear price - increase plan from shipping companies for now [6]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rate in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on NSK to cut prices. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Shipping Market Data - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1415, down 3.07% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1175, down 1.55%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 3.90% to 8.72% [4]. - For shipping derivatives, the prices of contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc. mostly declined, with the largest decline of 2.45%. The open interest of some contracts increased, and the month - spreads also changed slightly [4]. Market Influencing Factors - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium made the market expect interest rate cuts, and Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imported furniture led to pre - shipment rush [5]. - The increase in overtime ships in late August put pressure on spot freight rates. The competition for prices intensified, and shipping companies took measures such as adjusting surcharges and relaxing long - term contract booking restrictions to stimulate shipments [6]. - The planned suspension of voyages on the Trans - Pacific route before China's "Golden Week" in 2025 may increase temporarily in the coming weeks, and the current announced capacity reduction is lower than the historical benchmark [4]. - The low empty - sail rate on European routes in September and the sufficient supply of shipping capacity in the near future indicate no obvious signal of supply tightening in the short term. The congestion at European ports and the decrease in the rate of postponed sailings on the Asia - Europe route may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [6]. Shipping Company Strategies - Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) and Maersk (MSK) have announced their quotes for early September, maintaining the August level. Maersk will lower the peak - season surcharge to $50/100 in September and adjust the overweight surcharge policy [6]. - Some shipping companies are relaxing the restrictions on low - price long - term contract bookings to boost shipment volume [6].