成文日期：20260105 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:菜粕 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) 相关目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 2026 年 1 月 5 日，郑州商品交易所菜粕期货主力合约 (RM.CZC)开盘价 2354.0 元/吨，最高价 2382.0 元/吨，最低价 2350.0 元/吨，收盘价 2361.0 元/吨,较前一交易日下跌 0.8%。当 日成交量 271120 手，持仓量 644700 手，成交额 64.1268 亿元。 图 1：菜粕主力合约分时图 20260105 2 现货市场 2026 年 1 月 5 日南通菜粕现货价格为 2440.0 元/吨,期货收盘 价 2361.0元/吨,基差为 79元/吨(现货价格-期货价格),现货升水期 3.1 产业资讯 供应面：澳大利亚菜籽通关缓慢，国内油厂开机率为零，沿海 油厂菜系库存维持低位、市场供应紧张对价格形成支撑。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:同花顺期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-01-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2530，基差165，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多翻空，资金流出，偏空 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差176，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0.02万吨，上周0.02万吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 99.29%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资金流入，偏空 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响回归震荡，加上近期国内菜粕 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期周三 | 力位 | 2448，支撑位 | 2274。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 套利方面：暂无 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 | | | 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 23 日，前期空头大量离场，带动植物油板块整体反弹。 豆油主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2320至2380区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差158，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply is tightening. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market is supported by tight supply as the import of rapeseed is restricted and oil mills are mostly shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. But the demand is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9819 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2439 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 279 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 52 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 13487 lots, up 4267 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 10080 lots, up 2966 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3965 sheets, down 3 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 647.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10110 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10196.25 yuan/ton, down 87.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7896.7 yuan/ton, up 17.9 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.02, unchanged [2] - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 1 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 758 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12500 tons, down 8300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 100 tons, down 1900 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 364500 tons, down 36000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 226600 tons, down 3000 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 11500 tons, down 3300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 230000 tons, up 7000 tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 8600 tons, down 1500 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 200 tons, down 100 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 674000 tons [2] - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.86%, down 1.7%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.84%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.98%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.65%, up 0.03% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On November 25, ICE rapeseed futures rose for the second consecutive day. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 648.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 4.10 Canadian dollars to settle at 661.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, supporting the price of US soybeans, which have been fluctuating widely at a high level recently [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the rapeseed inventory is zero with oil mills shut down, tightening the supply. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. Short - term observation is recommended, and later attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, the US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in November increased while exports declined, increasing the inventory pressure and dragging down the international oil market. Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs, the import of rapeseed is restricted, and oil mills are mostly shut down. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, supporting its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].