站在今年年底回头看，人民币这一年的走势让很多人没想到——它不但没跌，反而涨了不少。 年初贸易摩擦刚开始时，人民币一度贬到7.4。当时很多人还照着2018年贸易冲突的老经验推测，以为人民币会继续贬 值，甚至可能破8。 （人民币年内走势图） 照大多数人的直观想法，国内经济有压力，外部贸易摩擦又比2018年更激烈，人民币应该像当年那样承受很大贬值压力 才对，怎么还升值了呢？ 但实际情况恰恰相反，人民币从4月份的低点7.4开始一路走高，到现在已经升值了4%，离7这个关口只差一口气。 在我看来，主要有两个原因： 第一，美元今年比较弱，贡献了大约三成的原因； 第二，政策起了支撑作用，贡献了七成。 说美元弱贡献了三成，主要是因为美元跌的时候，人民币并没有跟着大幅升值；而下半年人民币走强的节奏，更是光靠 美元走弱解释不通的。 看看下面这张图： 这是美元指数今年的走势。能明显看出，美元上半年就跌了差不多10%，下半年基本在98附近震荡。 而这期间： 上半年，日元、韩元分别升值9%和8%，人民币只升了2%； 全年来看，日元、韩元还略微贬值（-1%和-0.4%），人民币却整体升值了4%。 所以我觉得， 美元走弱确实在上半年带动了非 ...

高盛认为，随着美国中期选举临近，特朗普政府极有可能在中期选举前采取降低关税和财政刺激措施来 提振选民情绪。 追风交易台消息，12月16日，高盛首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips发表研报，预计到2026年底，美国有 效关税税率将从当前水平下降约2个百分点，但仍比2025年初高9.5个百分点。 部分贸易伙伴目前面临的IEEPA关税税率高于15%，如果政府依赖第122条作为过渡措施，相关国家的 关税将下降。 此外，Phillips指出虽然第二轮财政刺激法案面临重重障碍，但住房政策的相关措施可能出台。 研报强调生活成本仍是选民最关切的问题，有29%的选民将其列为首要关注点，比2024年总统大选前的 25%还要高。 预测市场显示，美国民主党更有可能在明年夺回众议院控制权，这可能促使共和党政府在选举前采取行 动。 关税下调概率加大 高盛认为，最高法院极有可能在2026年1月或不久后裁定特朗普政府基于IEEPA征收的关税超越了其法 定权限。 根据11月口头辩论中的提问情况，多数法官似乎不认为该法律授权征收关税，且如果授权可能构成违宪 的国会权力委托。 基于IEEPA的关税占今年有效关税税率上升11.4个百分点中的约 ...

格隆汇12月8日｜道富投资管理发布《2026年环球市场展望》，对2026年市场前景抱持"审慎乐观"立 场，关税不确定性带来的上行风险大于下行风险，并受惠于人工智能(AI)崛起及主要市场推出更多财政 刺激政策等利好因素。整体而言，道富投资管理看好股票市场，并略倾向美股，尽管美股存在估值偏高 及市场过于集中等隐忧。固定收益方面，基于包括息差偏窄、政策背景，以及更多潜在冲击可能出现等 因素，道富投资管理认为发达经济体的政府债券较企业债券更具吸引力。随着投资者采取更多元化的投 资策略，黄金及其他大宗商品、实体资产及私募市场等资产均会受惠。 ...

道富投资管理发布《2026年环球市场展望：专注前行，聚焦未来》，对2026年市场前景抱持"审慎乐 观"立场，关税不确定性带来的上行风险大于下行风险，并受惠于人工智能(AI)崛起及主要市场推出更 多财政刺激政策等利好因素。整体而言，该行看好股票市场，并略倾向美股，尽管美股存在估值偏高及 市场过于集中等隐忧。对非美国投资者而言，美元走弱或影响收益，但可选择性作出避险措施。 报告指出，美国及全球经济预计在明年持续增长，但市场将维持一定的焦虑情绪。 美联储在2026年将有空间进行最多三次降息。英国银行在宽松进程中相对落后，预期未来数季将急起直 追，报告亦指出欧洲央行短期内将暂停利率调整。同时，日本央行或延续谨慎加息的策略。 在亚洲，中国与日本都准备在未来一年中增加净财政支出以提振经济。中国正转向刺激国内消费和基建 投资的政策，并全力加强在AI领域的领导地位和创新。中国股市与其他主要市场的相关性较低，可为 投资者提供分散风险的效益。 道富投资管理首席投资总监Lori Heinel表示，该行维持审慎乐观的立场，仍然相信市场在来年将录得健 康增长。该行预期发达市场将推出更多刺激政策，货币政策则逐步正常化，利好股票市场，而与 ...

在经过一段时间的美债跑赢大市后，施罗德投资发现环球债券投资组合更有优势。考虑到经济增长稳 健、政策方向偏鸽派，加上现任美联储主席鲍威尔将于2026年5月卸任、新主席人选待定，美联储公信 力或受冲击的隐忧挥之不去，因此认为持有低成本的通胀保障是审慎之举。 欧洲经济于2025年稳步改善。预期这趋势将延续至2026年，德国的财政刺激虽有正面作用，但不足以扭 转整体欧元区经济增长。然而，在英国，劳动市场放缓加上即将收紧财政的预算案，可能会使英国在 2026年初的经济增长继续落后，英国国债因此仍具投资价值。 无论是担心人工智能带动增长过度集中、被高估的股价、波动的美国政策或其他风险，随着全球通胀压 力维持温和，固定收益能分散投资的作用正日益提升。对仍重仓持有现金的投资者而言，这张"安全 网"已不如以往坚固。随着现金利率下行且无法追上通胀，债券仍属具吸引力的收益来源。 企业债券在过去一年表现理想，但估值起点将成为影响未来回报的关键因素。目前，相对于政府债券， 因承担额外信贷风险而赚取的利差已处于历史低位。在收窄的利差水平下，重仓配置企业债券在现阶段 并不明智。 施罗德投资表示，踏入2026年，固定收益投资者面对的，是主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a $110 billion fiscal stimulus plan by the Japanese government has led to a significant sell-off of long-term Japanese bonds, resulting in the highest yields since the 2008 financial crisis, which may trigger a reversal of approximately $20 trillion in yen carry trades, posing a threat to global risk assets [1][3][6]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 1.78%, the highest level since June 2008, while the 30-year yield reached a historic high of 3.35% [3]. - A proposal for a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) was made to fund the stimulus plan, indicating a willingness to issue more bonds [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction reflects a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, with the debt burden at about 250% of GDP [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [4]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which fell below 155 yen for the first time since February, has raised concerns about rising import costs [5]. - The Japanese government is facing pressure to balance fiscal expansion with the need to support the yen, as further depreciation could exacerbate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The potential unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to a tightening of global liquidity and a sell-off in risk assets, with correlations observed between carry trade unwinding and declines in the S&P 500 [6][7]. - Emerging market currencies may experience a 1% to 3% decline within 30 days due to the unwinding of these trades, while U.S. Treasury yields could rise by 15 to 40 basis points [7]. - The tightening of liquidity is expected to impact all risk assets, particularly technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, as investors begin to hedge against risks [7].

Core Points - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, contrary to economists' expectations of a 2.4% drop [1][2] - The contraction is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly on the automotive sector, which has significantly affected Japan's export industry [2] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing economic pressures from U.S. tariffs and rising prices [2] Economic Indicators - Japan's Q3 GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with exports down 1.2% and imports down 0.1% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while business investment rose by 1.0% [1] - Private residential investment fell by 9.4%, contributing to a negative impact on domestic demand [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The negative GDP data may hinder the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, despite core inflation exceeding the 2% target for three and a half years [3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its interest rate at 0.5% since January, and the latest GDP figures may lead to a pause in rate hikes during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [3] - Analysts suggest that if upcoming economic indicators show a rebound in Q4, the Bank of Japan may consider resuming rate hikes in January [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends post "anti-involution" actions, and support for the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The onshore stock market and steel-related commodity prices are performing steadily [1] - Recent stabilization in China-U.S. relations and attractive asset valuations suggest more upward space for long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - It is expected that liquidity will remain ample until the end of the year, with the average seven-day repo rate and seven-day reverse repo rate (OMO) maintaining levels similar to recent months [1] - The net supply of government bonds is manageable for November-December, and the exchange rate is stable, indicating no strong reasons for the central bank to tighten liquidity in the coming months [1] - There has been a recent increase in market leverage, which may prompt the central bank to moderately tighten liquidity if levels remain high [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Expectations for monetary easing policies, such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, or larger liquidity injections through net purchases of government bonds, are anticipated to continue [1]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [7] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI [10] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [13] Group 2 - The outlook for Asian economies (excluding Japan) is mixed, with strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [17] - The Chinese internet sector will focus on AI strategies and competition in instant retail, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [20][21] - There is a growing trend in China to build a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with increased investment in AI infrastructure and diversified supply sources [24] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and support for the real estate market, with expectations of rising long-term interest rates [28] - Policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades are identified as core drivers for the future rise of A-shares, despite high valuations [31]