格隆汇1月6日｜摩根大通指出，法国、比利时和奥地利是2026年欧元区最易遭到信用评级下调的成员 国。分析师Aditya Chordia和Matteo Mamprin在日期为周二的一份报告中写道，这三个国家未来一年内被 穆迪、标普全球评级或晨星DBRS中至少一家下调评级的概率各自都为50%。总体而言，他们预计该地 区信用评级变动"有限"。"持续的财政挑战使法国、比利时、奥地利和芬兰面临负面评级行动的风 险，"他们表示，"另一方面，我们认为南欧国家存在评级上调或展望改善的上升空间。"这些预测凸显 了财政压力给曾被视为欧元区最安全借款国的国家所造成的影响。尤其是法国，信用评级持续恶化，投 资者也日渐审视该国在修复公共财政方面所面临的困境，2026年预算案迟迟无法出台就凸显了这一点。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time this year, with an increase of approximately $2.2 trillion compared to last year, representing a growth rate of about 7% [1] - The growth in global merchandise trade is projected to be around $1.5 trillion, while service trade is expected to grow by $750 billion, with respective growth rates of 6.3% and 8.8% compared to 2024 [1] - UNCTAD's report indicates that manufacturing, particularly in electronics, is leading the growth in global trade, while the energy and automotive sectors are experiencing relatively weak growth [2] Group 2 - The "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" from UNCTAD has surpassed 500, reaching a 20-year high, indicating significant uncertainty in trade policies due to the U.S. government's fluctuating tariff policies [2] - The World Bank reports that global trade policy uncertainty has reached a historical peak since 2000, which has led many companies to expedite shipments to avoid tariff risks, thereby depleting future demand [2] - The forecast for global goods trade growth has declined, with a predicted increase of only 0.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, following a peak growth rate of 3.6% in the second quarter [2] Group 3 - UNCTAD predicts that by 2033, the global AI market size will surge from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion, with a growth rate of 25 times over the next decade [3] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global trade and GDP growth, with trade potentially increasing by 34% to 37% and GDP growing by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [3] - The World Bank warns of the risks of imbalanced AI development, particularly affecting the economic transformation of developing countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's macroeconomic research head, Rob Subbaraman, anticipates a 2.4% growth in the US economy next year, driven by increased AI investment and a more accommodative economic environment, while core inflation remains close to 3% [1] Economic Outlook - The US is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points this year, with no cuts anticipated from January to May next year, followed by two cuts in June and September [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the lack of significant fiscal consolidation in the US, with expectations of increased government spending on defense, aging society, climate change-related disasters, and interest payments, leading to greater fiscal pressure [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The increased fiscal pressure may compel the US government to push the Federal Reserve for more rate cuts or to encourage financial institutions to purchase more government bonds, potentially resulting in higher inflation in the long term [1] Market Predictions - Nomura predicts that Asian stock markets will perform better in 2026, attracting more capital inflows, and highlights Asia as a manufacturer of AI phenomena [1] - The global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, Chen Liwei, forecasts that the US dollar will remain stable in the first quarter of next year, but the dollar index (DXY) is expected to depreciate by approximately 5% over the year, with downward pressure still present in the first quarter [1]

野村宏观经济研究主管Rob Subbaraman预期，明年美国经济将增长2.4%，因AI投资将持续，以及整体 经济环境更宽松。他认为美国通胀将保持黏性，维持于约3%水平，加上其他活动数据表现分化，预期 美联储会保持谨慎，今年12月将降息25个基点，但明年或待新主席上任后、即6月至9月才会再度降息。 他亦认为，目前美国财政未有明显整合迹象，预期未来政府用于国防、人口老化及气候转变的开支将增 加，令财政压力更大。 ...

据全球资产管理公司Nuveen称，美国国债长端收益率料将不会跟随美联储的政策利率走低。该公司在 其第四季度全球展望中表示："我们预测10年期美国国债收益率今明两年将维持在当前水平附近。"该公 司认为，财政背景是收益率曲线趋陡的主要驱动因素。该公司称，由于赤字持续高企，预计未来十年美 国债务水平将增加约GDP的20%。该公司补充称，这种不断恶化的财政环境意味着，仅财政压力一项就 给10年期国债收益率带来约75个基点的上行空间，几乎完全抵消了美联储降息带来的任何下行压力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism (KKM) is set to be phased out, marking a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies while facing short-term risks to the lira and market uncertainty [1][2][3] Group 1: KKM Mechanism Overview - The KKM was established in response to the lira's significant depreciation in 2021, which saw a 44% decline against the dollar, and allowed individuals and businesses to deposit lira in special accounts with state compensation during currency depreciation [2] - Since its inception, the KKM has incurred costs of approximately $60 billion, stabilizing short-term capital outflows but increasing long-term fiscal pressure [2][3] Group 2: Policy Transition and Market Implications - The Turkish Central Bank announced that KKM accounts will no longer accept new accounts or renewals, indicating a move away from unconventional monetary policies [1][3] - The balance of protected deposits has decreased sharply from a peak of $140 billion to about $7 billion, reflecting a growing confidence in the lira and the new monetary policy framework [2][3] Group 3: Future Challenges and Investor Sentiment - The end of the KKM is expected to lead to increased exchange rate volatility and market fluctuations, with investors needing to manage currency risks in the short term [4][5] - The Turkish government aims to enhance policy credibility and attract capital inflows through tighter monetary policies and improved transparency, despite ongoing challenges such as high inflation and external economic pressures [4][5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have proven to be more beneficial than the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, highlighting the challenges of tariff collection and the burden of national debt interest payments [1][12][29] - Tariff revenues for the fiscal year 2025 reached $195 billion, nearly tripling from the previous year, but the collection process is complicated and often ineffective due to various loopholes and corruption risks [3][5][10] - The interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2024, representing 3.93% of GDP, marking the highest level since 1998, while the recent interest rate cuts could save approximately $95 billion annually [13][15][20] Group 2 - The aging population in the U.S. poses significant economic challenges, with over 56 million people aged 65 and older by 2024, which could lead to labor shortages and increased reliance on imports [25][27] - The current economic strategy of lowering interest rates may provide short-term relief but risks leading to long-term issues similar to those faced by Japan, such as low consumer spending and economic stagnation [22][29] - The combination of tariffs and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration could exacerbate inflation and economic inefficiencies, necessitating a reevaluation of fiscal policies to address these deep-rooted issues [24][29]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently hesitant to lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and a resilient economy, despite market expectations for a rate cut in early 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Obstacles to Rate Cuts - The primary barrier to rate cuts is that inflation has not been fully tamed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly down from its peak of 9%, but recent data has repeatedly exceeded expectations, indicating a plateau in the decline [2]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, with high housing service costs and service sector inflation supported by wage growth, compelling the Fed to exercise patience [2][3]. - The strong job market and economic growth reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, as the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is steady, supporting consumer spending and contributing to inflation [2]. Group 2: Drivers for Future Rate Cuts - Despite the challenges, rate cuts are likely on the Fed's policy path, albeit delayed, as maintaining high rates carries its own risks [4]. - The lagging effects of restrictive interest rates may suppress business investment and consumer credit, potentially leading to unnecessary economic downturns or a hard landing in the job market [4]. - The Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and preventing a spike in unemployment, necessitating a gradual approach to rate cuts once inflation is under control [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of rate cuts in 2023 remains, but the timing and magnitude have been significantly adjusted [6]. - Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts have shifted from early predictions of March or June to September or later, with the focus now on whether any cuts will occur this year [6]. - The anticipated number of rate cuts has decreased from 6-7 to 1-2, with the Fed indicating that any rate reduction will be gradual and data-dependent [6]. - Political pressures in the election year of 2024 may complicate the Fed's decision-making process, despite its efforts to maintain independence [6].

Group 1 - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted concerns over trade tensions and the restructuring of the international trade system, with a focus on the potential risks posed by rapid AI development and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a 3.2% growth in the global economy by 2025, but warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent reconfiguration of trade, negatively impacting global efficiency [1][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with employment data falling below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, it could lead to significant market revaluation and adverse economic impacts [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with the U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth of 3.2% by 2025, highlighting concerns over escalating trade tensions and the potential for a permanent restructuring of global trade [1][2] - The IMF warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a reduction in global economic growth by up to 0.3 percentage points due to supply chain disruptions [1][2] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data falling below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF raises alarms about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, which could lead to significant market corrections if profit expectations are not met [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]