宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.08 2025-10-09 假期期间：海外大事件与全球大类资产 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 中国国庆中秋假期期间，海外政经领域波动加剧，美国两党围绕临时拨款法案和医 保补贴争执不下，政府陷入停摆，日本自民党新总裁上任，法国新总理辞职，显示 海外政治波动加大，其本质均是财政等经济问题，巴以谈判举步维艰。国际环境进 入新一轮动荡期，假期期间黄金价格得到持续支撑，再创新高，原油价格震荡下跌。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 假期海外大事件梳理： 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 [Table_Report] | 1. | 假期期间：海外大事件梳理 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 全球大类资产：大宗商品涨跌分化，股票市场多数上涨 4 | | 3. | 美国：经济仍在边际放缓 5 | | 4. | 欧洲：经济和通胀均相对企稳，财政拖累法国等部分国家 6 | 宏观周报 1. 假期期间：海外大事件梳理 事件一：美国两党围绕临时拨款法案和医保补贴博 ...

【法国兴业：英镑多重不利或走弱，给出交易策略与风险预警】法国兴业深度分析显示，当前英镑面临 多重不利因素，预计将进一步走弱。英国财政与货币政策组合不利，11月预算预计进一步紧缩财政，随 后降息。政府控制支出困难，增税不可避免。 高通胀使英国央行降息步伐慢，利率周期仅完成 50%-60%，欧洲央行已完成80%-90%。市场对英国央行11月降息预期近50%。汇率上，欧元对美元明年 预计升至1.25，英镑被视为最脆弱欧洲货币，欧元对英镑汇率预计升至0.90。 交易策略方面，法国兴业 提出利用期权市场结构性机会。因EUR/GBP看涨偏斜维持高位，可实施低成本策略获正Theta收益。具 体策略有买入3个月看涨价差、2个月看涨期权、3个月数字看涨期权。 持仓上，前两种策略建议持有至 到期，数字看涨期权升值慢可提前平仓。若EUR/GBP快速升值，看涨价差策略需现货Delta对冲。 风险 预警指出，买入看涨价差投资者在EUR/GBP超0.90面临无限风险；敲出看涨期权触及0.9050失效；数字 看涨期权风险限于初始溢价。快速现货升值有Gamma风险，需对冲。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - The 21st Summer Annual Meeting of the Yabuli Entrepreneurs Forum will be held in Guangzhou on September 12-13, 2025, focusing on the theme "Forging Ahead Steadily - Corporate Development in the New Global Context" [1] - The current market activity is attributed to multiple factors including abundant liquidity, the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical factors creating investment opportunities, and the catalytic effect of AI technology [3] - There is a recognition of a technology innovation explosion, with rapid development across various stages from foundational computing algorithms to industry applications [3] Group 2 - Concerns about market bubbles exist, but the transition of technological advancements into corporate profitability is expected to be more solid than in previous market cycles [3] - To stimulate domestic demand, two approaches are suggested: providing financial support to low- and middle-income groups and implementing structural reforms to adjust the distribution system [3] - The growth potential for new consumption sectors, such as Pop Mart, remains significant, with high valuations driven by the ability to create new intellectual properties [4]

Group 1 - The market previously worried that with the weakening momentum of "export grabbing," China's exports might face significant downward pressure in the second half of the year, with a risk of a substantial decline in the fourth quarter. The expected annual export growth rate was only around 3%. However, it is believed that due to the resilient economic growth in emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, as well as improvements in China-Europe trade amid uncertainties in US tariffs, China's exports are likely to continue exceeding expectations in the second half of the year. The projected export growth rates for Q3 and Q4 are 5.9% and 1.0%, respectively, leading to an expected annual growth rate of 4.6%, which is about 1.6 percentage points higher than market expectations, potentially boosting GDP growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1][12][14] - The high growth of exports to emerging markets is not solely driven by "export grabbing." The new tariff framework has seen limited adjustments in major transshipment regions, including ASEAN, with most rates still lower than the tariffs imposed on China. Additionally, the actual demand from emerging markets has been a significant driver of high export growth. The manufacturing PMI of emerging markets (excluding China) has consistently been above that of developed countries, indicating stronger demand in regions like ASEAN and Africa [2][12][10] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs may continue to support improvements in China-Europe trade. The high growth of exports to the EU this year is partly due to the easing of trade relations between China and the EU amid US-EU trade frictions. Despite existing differences in various economic and trade issues, the EU is unlikely to worsen its economic ties with China, allowing for continued resilience in exports to the EU in the second half of the year [3][13] Group 2 - The US's dual approach of loose monetary and fiscal policies is expected to maintain external demand resilience next year. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 150 basis points to around 3% by the end of next year, with a consensus on the continuation of the easing cycle. The new Federal Reserve chair, nominated by Trump, may implement even looser policies in the second half of 2026, further stimulating total demand in the US economy [4][14] - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to have a significant positive impact on the US economy over the next 1-3 years. The act is expected to increase US economic output by 1.21% over the next 30 years compared to previous baseline expectations. The act's implementation is characterized by an initial phase of fiscal expansion followed by monetary tightening, which will positively affect the output gap in the US economy during the early years [5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The economic operation data for January indicates a stable start, with various leading indicators and macro data showing positive signs of recovery, although external challenges remain significant [1][7]. Group 1: Leading Indicators - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is reported at 50.1%, remaining above 50 for three consecutive months, signaling a comprehensive recovery in the economy [2]. - The logistics industry index stands at 51.1%, indicating continued growth, particularly in the railway and postal sectors [2]. - The excavator sales and operating rates reflect robust infrastructure construction, with high operating rates reported for various engineering machinery [2]. - High-frequency data shows industrial production resilience, with a blast furnace operating rate exceeding 70% and a significant increase in coking enterprise operating rates from 54.3% to 76.2% [2]. Group 2: Financial and Economic Data - In January, new RMB loans reached 3.98 trillion yuan, and new social financing totaled 6.17 trillion yuan, both setting monthly historical highs [4]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong monetary environment [4]. - Central enterprises reported a revenue of 3 trillion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, and a profit total of 185.3 billion yuan, reflecting robust economic performance [4]. - Actual foreign investment in January was 102.3 billion yuan, marking an 11.6% increase year-on-year, showcasing improved investment conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that fiscal policies should accelerate budget investments and increase spending in employment and livelihood sectors to support small and micro enterprises [8]. - Monetary policy should leverage the current window before potential tightening by the Federal Reserve, with suggestions for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to boost demand [8]. - A more flexible macro-control toolbox is recommended, including reforms in key sectors and strategies to enhance domestic demand [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of steady growth policies and optimistic market expectations is expected to accelerate economic recovery, with the first quarter of 2023 likely to exceed market expectations [3][6]. - The emphasis on maintaining stability while addressing external and internal pressures is crucial for achieving quality growth and overcoming challenges [9].

Group 1 - As of March 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $32,407 billion, an increase of $134 billion from February, reflecting a growth rate of 0.42% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and the overall drop in global financial asset prices, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policies from major economies [1][2] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3 trillion, making it the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves globally, which is crucial for maintaining economic and financial stability amid rising global uncertainties [1][2] Group 2 - As of March 2025, China's gold reserves increased to 7.37 million ounces, up from 7.361 million ounces in February, marking the fifth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [2] - The gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations in 2025, with spot gold prices recently dropping below $3,000 per ounce for the first time since March 21 [2] - The central bank's strategy to steadily increase gold reserves is driven by the need to mitigate geopolitical risks and market volatility, while also responding to rising demand for safe-haven assets [2][3]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the geopolitical and economic strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the importance of technology and leverage in their future growth [1][2][3] - The US is expected to rely heavily on technology and leverage after 2025, moving away from previous population growth strategies [2][3] - Both the US and China share similar goals regarding technological advancement, but their approaches and levels of commitment differ due to various factors [5][6] Group 2 - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a shared strategic framework, which is a notable aspect of the current geopolitical landscape [4][7] - The EU's foreign policy is complicated by its relationship with NATO, leading to mixed signals and a lack of a unified stance on security matters [9][10] - Eastern European countries tend to favor US involvement over European solutions due to historical experiences, which complicates the EU's diplomatic efforts [11][12] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the differing perspectives within the EU regarding security and foreign policy, leading to hesitations and inconsistencies [17][18] - The EU's future is uncertain, as it faces challenges in population growth, technological advancement, and maintaining fiscal discipline in a competitive global environment [18][20] - The historical context of US-Soviet relations influences current US strategies, while China's unique development path presents its own set of challenges [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipation for the official announcement of the "new type of policy financial tools" is building, with local governments already conducting policy interpretation and project application meetings, indicating that the official announcement is imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools Overview - Local governments in 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to discuss the new policy financial tools, aiming to seize opportunities in the upcoming policy framework [1]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan (about 740 billion) in policy and development financial tools to support major project capital and bridge funding for special bond projects [1]. - The new tools are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2023, as indicated by market research institutions [1]. Group 2: Support and Funding Mechanisms - The new tools are designed to address funding gaps in key areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and consumer infrastructure [3]. - Historical experience suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will provide necessary support for the new tools, with a focus on using monetary policy to supplement fiscal efforts, particularly through mechanisms like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2]. - Local governments are actively planning and reserving projects to maximize the benefits of the new tools, emphasizing the importance of leveraging social capital and expanding effective investment [4]. Group 3: Project Focus and Implementation - Specific areas of focus for project applications include industrial development, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction, with local governments identifying priority projects in these sectors [3]. - The three main policy financial institutions involved in the new tools—China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and China Export-Import Bank—are actively participating in policy interpretation sessions to clarify eligibility and operational models [3]. - Local governments are urged to take advantage of the project application window to implement high-quality projects that translate policy potential into tangible development outcomes [4].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.60% [2] - A joint meeting of multiple ministries announced a new round of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at supporting the economy and the stock market, but the impact is expected to be less than last year's measures [3][4] - The recent import and export data revealed significant shocks, with exports showing a notable decline and imports experiencing an unusual surge, potentially indicating a "importing through Hong Kong" behavior [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that a right-side sell signal has been confirmed, with institutional funds continuing to flow out despite the market's rebound [4] - The overall economic impact is evident, and while policies have been implemented, their effectiveness remains uncertain, leading to a recommendation for low positions in the main board to mitigate risks [4] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the banking sector as a potential area of interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a reduction in tactical discipline while strategic discipline is being selectively applied, with a recommendation for low positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - Last week, the market saw a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.49%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.08 [2]. - The stabilization forces in the market are beginning to weaken, and while small-cap sectors showed some strength in Q1 earnings, their sustainability remains in question [2]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is facing the first wave of impact from the tariff war, with Q1 earnings reports showing a lack of significant improvement, particularly in the banking sector, which underperformed market expectations [2]. - The April official PMI data indicates a significant weakening trend, supporting the view that the Chinese economy will confront challenges from the tariff war [2]. - In the U.S., despite stable monthly employment data, leading indicators suggest a decline starting in May, and the recently disclosed Q1 GDP turned negative, indicating an impending recession [2]. Technical Analysis - Tactical discipline is beginning to weaken, as evidenced by the reversal in the banking sector's trend following the April Politburo meeting and Q1 earnings reports [3]. - The overall technical outlook remains cautious, with institutional funds continuing to flow out of small-cap sectors [3]. - The A-share Q1 earnings, while relatively stable, are viewed as a small rebound within a mid-term downward trend, necessitating defensive positioning ahead of potential economic shocks [3]. Investment Strategy - For the main board, the recommendation is to maintain low positions as the positive impacts of Q1 economic data and earnings have already materialized, while the second quarter's tariff war effects are still unfolding [3]. - For small-cap sectors, despite better Q1 earnings compared to the main board, concerns about the sustainability of the recovery remain significant, thus low positions are advised [3]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [3].