终止特朗普全面关税，是谁左右了美国的贸易政策？ 当地时间10月30日，美国参议院以51票赞同、47票反对的结果通过决议，宣布 终止美国总统特朗普在全球 范围内实施的全面关税政策。 这一决定，再次将美国贸易政策的摇摆性推至舆论中心。 这并非美国贸易史上的"第一次"，也绝不会是"最后一次"。 为何美国的贸易政策总在"保护"与"开放"间摇摆？谁在幕后推动关税的涨跌？早在1787年，《联邦党人文 集》便揭示了答案：贸易政策本质是不同利益集团的冲突。正如经济学家道格拉斯·欧文在《贸易的冲突》 中所言："美国因贸易立国，为贸易而战，凭借贸易支撑全球霸权。"这部耗时十年完成的巨著，以经济学与 政治学的双重视角，解构了美国贸易政策两百年来的权力逻辑。 01 利益集团的永恒博弈——麦迪逊预言的现实映照 在《联邦党人文集》第十章里，詹姆斯•麦迪逊注意到每个社会都存在不同的经济利益集团，这些集团经常 对政府政策持有相互激烈冲突的看法："土地利益集团、制造业利益集团、商业利益集团、金融利益集团， 以及其他许多较弱小的利益集团，必然在各个文明国家中成长起来，并把社会分为不同的阶级，由不同的 情感和观点驱动。"他指出："管理这些多种多样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the three key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time since July, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in the Eurozone [1][3]. Economic Conditions - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is in a "good position" from a monetary policy perspective, primarily due to the current inflation rate around 2%, which is considered manageable [4]. - The Eurozone's economic growth is characterized by weak growth, with no signs of recession or significant recovery [4]. - The ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged is also influenced by external factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts and trade pressures from the U.S. [4][9]. Trade and Geopolitical Impact - The Eurozone economy is significantly affected by ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs of 15% on the EU and additional tariffs of 25% to 50% on various sectors [6][7]. - The Ukraine crisis continues to impact the Eurozone, with no viable solutions currently in sight [7]. - The Eurozone's response to trade and geopolitical conflicts is limited, with insufficient countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and a reliance on U.S. support for military aid to Ukraine [7]. Policy Divergence with the U.S. - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve is notable, with the Fed cutting rates to address economic uncertainties and high tariffs, while the ECB maintains its rates due to stable inflation [9][10]. - The U.S. inflation rate is higher than the ECB's target, with the U.S. CPI rising by 3% year-on-year, indicating different economic pressures faced by the two regions [10].

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, initiated by the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, followed by similar actions from several central banks in the Middle East and Canada, indicating a shift in monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, but future rate paths remain uncertain, with significant internal disagreements among officials regarding potential actions in December [2][11]. - The probability of another rate cut in December has decreased to 67.8%, down from 95.3% prior to the recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [11]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's announcement, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia also cut their benchmark rates by 25 basis points [4][5][6]. - The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [7]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for a negative growth in the third quarter [7]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition due to structural damages from trade conflicts, which have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy [7][8]. Future Outlook - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 2%, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have diminished due to political pressures [9]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts may be more nuanced than the market currently anticipates, with strong consumer spending and economic growth potentially influencing the pace of future cuts [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling that it is nearing the end of its current rate-cutting cycle unless further economic shocks arise from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Canada has revised its economic growth forecasts downward, projecting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter due to U.S. tariff impacts, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover [4] - The central bank's forecasts indicate an annualized growth of 0.5% for the third quarter and 1% for the fourth quarter [4] Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that trade conflicts have caused structural damage to the economy, limiting its supply capacity and increasing costs, which in turn restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][5] - The central bank's current policy rate is deemed appropriate to keep inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the indication that the easing cycle may be nearing its end, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1 [8] - Canadian government bond yields rose across the board, and expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% [8] Upcoming Economic Events - The timing of the Bank of Canada's rate decision coincides with the upcoming federal budget announcement by Prime Minister Carney, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth amid trade headwinds [10] - Market analysts suggest that while the central bank may hold rates steady at 2.25%, significant uncertainties remain, particularly with the anticipated acceleration of CUSMA negotiations next year [10]

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has lowered the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level since July 2022 [1] - The central bank has significantly downgraded its growth forecasts, citing long-term impacts from U.S. tariffs that have structurally damaged the Canadian economy [4] - The central bank's decision comes as the Canadian government prepares to unveil a budget focused on infrastructure and major projects to support growth [4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada expects the economy to be in a state of excess supply for the foreseeable future, with growth forecasts for the second half of 2025 reduced to 0.75% [5] - Compared to January predictions, the central bank has lowered its growth expectations for 2025 from 1.8% to 1.2% and for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.1% [5] - The central bank acknowledges that the impact of tariffs has raised business costs and increased uncertainty, leading to continued weakness in business investment and consumer growth [5][6] Monetary Policy - The current overnight rate of 2.25% is at the lower end of the central bank's assessed neutral rate range, indicating a balance that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [6] - The central bank is cautious about further stimulus to avoid reigniting inflation amid global price and supply chain disruptions [5][6] - There is a possibility of further rate cuts, but the timing may be delayed until early 2026, depending on economic conditions and fiscal policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling that the current rate cut cycle is nearing its end unless there are severe economic impacts from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Economic Forecasts and Impacts - The Bank of Canada has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover, projecting a 0.5% annualized growth for Q3 and 1% for Q4 [4] - The central bank noted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with structural damage from trade conflicts reducing supply capacity and increasing costs, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Canada indicated that the current policy rate is approximately suitable for keeping inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the hint at the end of the easing cycle, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1, and government bond yields rose across the board [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% after the announcement [8] Group 3: Future Considerations and Uncertainties - The Bank of Canada acknowledged significant uncertainties in its economic forecasts and is prepared to respond if the outlook changes [7] - The upcoming federal budget, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth, may present upward risks despite the downward pressures from trade conflicts [10]

Group 1 - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. starting November 1 caused significant market volatility, with global stock markets losing over $2 trillion in a single day [2][3] - The aggressive trade conflict was short-lived, as Vice President Pence quickly signaled a willingness for rational dialogue with China the following day [4][5] - This pattern of strong pressure followed by a de-escalation has been referred to as the "TACO strategy" by Wall Street observers, indicating a tendency for Trump to retreat at critical moments [5] Group 2 - A report from Guangfa Securities indicated that implementing a 100% import tariff is nearly impossible in practice and serves more as a negotiation tactic rather than a genuine policy [7] - In response to U.S. pressure, China firmly stated that using high tariffs is not the correct way to handle bilateral trade relations and initiated rare earth export controls as a countermeasure [8][9] - Rare earth elements are crucial for high-tech industries, including chip manufacturing and defense, highlighting the U.S.'s significant dependency on China in these key sectors [10] Group 3 - The abrupt change in the Trump administration's stance reveals its entanglement in multiple domestic and foreign crises, including a government shutdown affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees [12][13] - The situation escalated with a donor contributing $130 million to the Pentagon to cover military salaries during the shutdown, while widespread protests against Trump's governance occurred across the country [16][18] - Despite the political rhetoric of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., the reality shows a continued outflow of capital and the closure of domestic factories, as exemplified by the Amrus hand truck company [19][20] Group 4 - Although 244,000 manufacturing jobs were added in 2024, these were primarily in high-tech sectors, leaving traditional labor-intensive industries struggling [21][22] - Trump's "maximum pressure" approach is essentially a political gamble, relying on the assumption that China will make concessions first [23] - The current situation necessitates Trump to address domestic turmoil while maintaining a tough external posture, which may be a strategy to divert attention from internal issues [24][26]

Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The recent US-China economic talks in Kuala Lumpur led to preliminary consensus on key issues such as maritime logistics, shipbuilding, and agricultural trade, setting the stage for the upcoming leaders' meeting [2][3] - Both sides expressed a willingness to resolve differences through respectful dialogue and cooperation, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first nine months of the year, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 53,732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with September alone seeing a profit growth of 21.6% [4][5] - The profit growth was driven by strong export demand and a slight recovery in domestic demand, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [5] Group 3: Birth Rate Statistics - In 2024, China's birth population is projected to be 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, with a birth rate of 6.77‰, up by 0.38‰ [6][7] - The data indicates that western regions have higher birth rates compared to eastern regions, with Guangdong continuing to lead in total births [6][7] Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Subsidies - A competitive subsidy "war" among car manufacturers has emerged, with companies like Chery and Xiaomi offering to cover the additional purchase tax costs for consumers due to policy changes [8][9] - This trend reflects the intensifying market competition in the new energy vehicle sector, as companies aim to boost sales before the tax reduction policy takes effect [8][9] Group 5: Meituan's Bond Issuance - Meituan plans to launch its largest bond issuance to raise approximately $3 billion, primarily for refinancing existing debts and general operational needs [10][11] - The company faces significant competition in the food delivery sector, prompting the need for financial maneuvers to alleviate cash flow pressures [10][11] Group 6: Porsche's Profit Decline - Porsche reported a staggering 99% drop in profit for the first three quarters, with a loss of 9.66 billion euros in Q3, attributed to declining sales in China and Europe [12][13] - The company is undergoing organizational restructuring and plans to cut jobs as part of its strategy to cope with the challenges posed by the shift towards electric vehicles [12][13] Group 7: SoftBank's Investment in OpenAI - SoftBank has approved an additional $22.5 billion investment in OpenAI, part of a larger commitment to invest $40 billion, aiming to capitalize on OpenAI's potential IPO [14][15] - This investment comes amid SoftBank's ongoing financial challenges and highlights the risks associated with high-stakes investments in the tech sector [14][15] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by positive sentiment from US-China trade negotiations [16][17] - Despite the overall market uptrend, there were fluctuations, indicating cautious investor sentiment as the index approached the psychological 4000-point mark [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].

Overview - China's economy showed resilience in Q3, with actual GDP growing by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2. Cumulatively, GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that the annual growth target is achievable [1]. Economic Structure - The supply-demand structure continues to deepen, with external demand showing unexpected resilience while internal demand is slowing down. In Q3, external demand growth outpaced production and internal demand, with non-US exports supporting external demand [3][6]. - Price governance has made initial progress, with the gap between nominal and actual GDP growth narrowing slightly. Actual GDP growth exceeded nominal growth by 1.1 percentage points, while nominal GDP growth fell to its lowest level in 2023 at 3.7% [6]. - Economic data for September showed a continuous slowdown in growth rates for four months, with production accelerating but investment and consumption declining more significantly [9]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in September was 3%, slightly below market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Restaurant consumption saw a more significant drop than goods consumption, with restaurant service growth falling to 0.9% [12]. - Goods consumption growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, with subsidized categories experiencing a more substantial decline than non-subsidized ones. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q3 was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [12]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% in September, with infrastructure investment down by 2.1 percentage points, manufacturing investment down by 0.9 percentage points, and real estate investment down by 13.9% [17]. - Real estate sales growth was affected by base disturbances, with both sales area and amount declining by 10.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Real estate investment growth hit a record low of -21.3% in September [17][19]. Trade - September saw a significant increase in import and export growth, with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year in USD terms, supported by low base effects and recovery in global economic conditions. Trade surplus continued to expand [25]. - Imports also saw a notable increase, driven by demand recovery from major projects, although sustainability remains uncertain [25]. Supply - Industrial production growth accelerated in September, with the industrial added value growing by 6.5%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The production and sales rate improved slightly to 96.7% [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed impact from "anti-involution" policies, with some industries facing production slowdowns [28]. Inflation - CPI inflation showed signs of improvement, with the decline narrowing to -0.3%. Core CPI inflation rose to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, supported by rising gold prices and improvements in some durable goods prices [29]. Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with pressures from insufficient effective demand and low price levels. The upcoming policies from the recent party meeting may provide additional support [31].