Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year are under pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. The government is expected to utilize fiscal policy reserves to cover the revenue gap caused by childcare and elderly service subsidies [1][5][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue and expenditure deviated slightly from the initial budget, with revenue falling short by 463 billion yuan and expenditure by 1309 billion yuan for the general public budget [2][6]. - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 6.9%. Local governments showed a revenue increase of 3.0% and expenditure increase of 3.7% [3][6]. - For the second half of the year, the expected year-on-year growth rates for the general public budget are -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure, leading to a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion yuan and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion yuan compared to the budget [5][11]. Budget Execution and Adjustments - Historically, the completion rate for the general public budget has been over 98%, and significant deviations typically necessitate budget adjustments or additional deficits. However, the flexibility of the special fund budget allows for a completion rate of 80%-90% without strict requirements [2][5]. - The government plans to cover the expected 1200 billion yuan revenue gap from subsidies without increasing the budget by utilizing reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises [11][12]. Central Financial Enterprises' Role - The profits from central financial enterprises are crucial for offsetting revenue shortfalls. In 2024, these enterprises contributed significantly to the budget, with non-tax revenue showing substantial increases in late 2024 [7][12]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 2739.22 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with plans to allocate 1000 billion yuan in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 1739.22 billion yuan [12].

Core Viewpoint - The White House expresses confidence that the tax cut legislation will not lead to increased deficits [1] Group 1 - The administration believes that the economic growth generated by the tax cuts will offset any potential revenue losses [1] - Officials assert that the tax cuts are designed to stimulate investment and job creation, which will ultimately benefit the economy [1] - The White House emphasizes that concerns about deficits are not a priority in the context of the tax legislation [1]

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that tariffs, immigration policies, and deficits are contributing to inflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are identified as a factor leading to inflation [1] - Immigration policies are also highlighted as a contributing element to inflation [1] - The issue of deficits is mentioned as a significant driver of inflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, while expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury bonds and a drop in gold prices by approximately 1.4% [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, causing the market to abandon bets on a rate cut in July [1] - The ISM services index for June in the U.S. was reported at 50.8, with a contraction in the employment index but a rebound in business activity and orders [1] Group 2 - China plans to strengthen governance over the photovoltaic industry to combat low-price and disorderly competition [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened twice in one day to buy Hong Kong dollars [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the 20% tariffs on Vietnam will not be stacked on the existing 10% tariffs, and following the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, India and Indonesia are ramping up efforts [1] Group 3 - Japan's 30-year government bond auction saw strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since February [1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by over 1% amid reports of the U.S. planning to negotiate with Iran next week [1] - A one-hour phone call between the U.S. and Russian presidents discussed the situation in the Middle East and negotiations regarding Ukraine [1]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

马斯克称支出法案"巨大且丑陋"，将使赤字增至2.5万亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of CME Group stated that he does not know any Republican who wishes to stop the deficit train [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern regarding the ongoing budget deficits and the lack of political will among Republicans to address the issue [1]

美国经纪公司盈透证券董事长：特朗普不会像许多保守派那样认真看待赤字。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House Press Secretary Leavitt criticized the fiscal projections provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as being based on flawed assumptions regarding U.S. economic growth [1] Group 1: Tax Legislation - The tax reform proposal supported by President Trump is asserted not to increase the deficit [1] - CBO's predictions are described as hollow and lacking substance in terms of economic growth assumptions [1]

美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，税改法案不会增加赤字。 ...