锰硅：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 2025 年 9 月 24 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 23 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5350- 5400，内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200（+150），宁夏 6000-6100（+100），青海 6000- 6100（+100），甘肃 6000-6050（+50），内蒙 6100-6150（+100）（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）； 硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070，75#1120-1150（+20）（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650- 5750（-50）元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800（+50）元/吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：中天钢铁常州昨日敲定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are disturbed by market information, showing wide - range intraday fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2511 closed at 5624, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 208,650 and an open interest of 222,047. Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5604, down 2, with a trading volume of 33,111 and an open interest of 96,724 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2511 closed at 5828, up 10, with a trading volume of 66,101 and an open interest of 107,056. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5842, up 10, with a trading volume of 138,956 and an open interest of 312,315 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of silicon iron: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue charcoal: small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The silicon iron spot - 11 futures spread was - 274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - 01 futures spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - The silicon iron 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The manganese silicon 2511 - silicon iron 2511 cross - variety spread was 204 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread was 238 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 28, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - Kangmilaou announced the offer of Gabon block to China in October 2025 at 4.27 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month. Some long - term agreement enterprises reported a decrease in the quantity of Gabon block. The stable overseas price is positive for the long - term cost support of manganese ore [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced the offer to China in October 2025. The offer of Australian block (Mn＞46% Fe＜6% SiO2<18%) was 4.57 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [3]. - On the 27th, Ningbo Iron and Steel set the price of silicon manganese at 6030 yuan/ton (acceptance and tax included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high. For stock index futures, it is recommended to continue holding long positions; for stock index options, it is advisable to appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term; for treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment is relatively warm [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Continue to hold long positions. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.47 points, - 1.51 points, - 38.14 points, and - 34.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.38 points, 0.31 points, - 7.57 points, and - 7.24 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.6 points, - 1.0 point, 73.0 points, and 78.0 points, with a month - on - month change of 3.2 points, - 0.4 point, 9.4 points, and 6.2 points. The total open interest changes are 7431 lots, 2077 lots, 3443 lots, and 4114 lots. The upward trend of the market has not changed. In August, the tone is still positive due to factors such as strong capital inflow, low probability of mid - report disappointment, and the weakening US dollar index. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term. The underlying market showed mixed trends and was in a volatile state. The trading volume of the options market was 6 billion and 60 million yuan, a 16.85% increase from the previous day. The sentiment indicators remained similar to the previous day, with the MO skew reaching a half - year high, indicating continued defensive sentiment in the small - cap segment. Volatility increased in small - cap and ChiNext stocks. It is recommended to continue the medium - term covered call strategy and reduce the short - term directional exposure of small - cap stocks [2][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warm. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rising by 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.05% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined. Although the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 12.25 billion yuan in the open market, the capital market remained loose. The central bank's 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation is beneficial to the bond market. However, the high market risk preference and potential factors such as the increase in long - term bond supply in the third quarter and the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies may have an impact on the bond market. Different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [3][10][11]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US factory orders in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2nd, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in July [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Export**: In the first seven months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase. The EU was the second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase. The US was the third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.42 trillion yuan, an 11.1% decrease. China's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 5.5% [13]. - **Retail and Commerce**: The Shanghai SASAC launched a campaign for the rejuvenation of local state - owned time - honored brands, aiming to promote brand development through various measures such as open cooperation, improving market - oriented operation mechanisms, and attracting professional talents [13]. - **Power**: Shandong Province issued a reform plan for the market - based on - grid electricity price of new energy, stating that the on - grid electricity of new energy projects such as wind and solar power will enter the power market, and the on - grid electricity price will be determined through market transactions [14]. - **Education**: The state - wide policy of exempting preschool education fees for all children in the senior class of kindergartens is expected to benefit about 12 million people this autumn [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the categories of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [15][19][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of VAT collection on bonds has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on the bond market, but the overall impact is controllable. In the short term, the cost - performance of existing bonds and credit bonds has increased, and the bond market has risen stage by stage. In the long term, it may be unfavorable to the bond market. The probability of the bond market breaking through the previous low has decreased, and it may still fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Attention should be paid to the primary issuance rate of new bonds after August 8 and the impact of macro factors on the risk preference of the bond market [2]. - When summarizing the views of fixed - income sellers on the resumption of VAT collection, there are bullish, neutral/ bearish views. Half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared with last week. The sentiment of fixed - income buyers is relatively cautious, and nearly 70% are neutral [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted index of the seller sentiment this week is 0.33, and the unweighted index is 0.47, both showing a decline compared with last week. The current institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 15 bullish, 14 neutral, and 1 bearish. 50% of the institutions are bullish, and 47% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of buyers this week is 0.08, and the unweighted index is 0.11, with the unweighted index decreasing by 0.08 compared with last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 6 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of the institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 11% are bearish [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include preventive redemptions of wealth management products and a decline in the scale of credit - bond ETFs. The preventive redemptions of wealth management products are due to the central bank's continuous net withdrawal and tightened capital, leading to selling pressure on credit bonds. The growth of credit - bond ETFs has slowed down, and the subsequent increase in ETFs may fall short of expectations [19]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 10 bullish and 3 neutral. 77% of the institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral [22]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of August 1, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts of treasury bonds have all increased, while the trading volume, open interest, and trading - to - open - interest ratio have all decreased [26][27]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On August 1, the turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds decreased, while the turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of August 1, the basis and net basis of the main contracts have all narrowed, and the IRR has generally increased [41][44]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread of the TL contract has widened, while the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed. Among the inter - variety spreads, except for the 2*TF - T contract, the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed [51][52].

Report Title - Manganese Silicon: Sector sentiment resonance, strong sideways movement [1] Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of strong sideways movement due to sector sentiment resonance [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2509 closed at 6110, up 270, with a trading volume of 726,721 and an open interest of 197,081 - Silicon iron 2510 closed at 6092, up 260, with a trading volume of 62,472 and an open interest of 40,316 - Manganese silicon 2509 closed at 6212, up 184, with a trading volume of 1,009,206 and an open interest of 347,380 - Manganese silicon 2510 closed at 6218, up 186, with a trading volume of 43,829 and an open interest of 23,948 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5550 yuan/ton, up 50 - The price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 - The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [1] Price Difference Data - The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon iron was - 560 yuan/ton, down 220 - The spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon was - 412 yuan/ton, down 84 - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2509 - 2601 was - 106 yuan/ton, up 2 - The near - far month price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 was - 74 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 102 yuan/ton, down 86 - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 70 yuan/ton, down 84 [1] Macro and Industry News Silicon Iron Price News - On July 29, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5600 (+100), in Ningxia 5600 - 5700 (+100), in Qinghai 5500 - 5600 (+100), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 (+150) - The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5800 - 5900, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850, in Gansu 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 - The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040, and 75 was 1090 - 1110 (US dollars/ton, tax - included) [2] Silicon Manganese Price News - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5850 - 5950 (+150) yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5900 - 6000 (+100) yuan/ton [2] Production and Procurement News - In July, there were 11 silicon iron enterprises in production in Inner Mongolia, with 75 ore - heating furnaces in production. The operating rate in July was 61.48%, up 1.64% from June, and the output was expected to be 14.64 tons, up 0.37 tons from June, with a capacity utilization of 60.2% - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon iron procurement price at 5970 yuan/ton in cash, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese standard at 5990 yuan/ton, CIF and accepted, and temporarily procured 1500 tons - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon manganese standard at 5880 yuan/ton, CIF and cash - included, up 140 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1500 tons - A group in Fujian set the silicon manganese standard at 6150 yuan/ton in Hubei, up 100, with a procurement volume of 3000 tons; and 6150 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, up 100, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core View - Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, resulting in significant pressure on Chinese imports and a continuous inventory build - up at ports. The short - term reality at ports is weak, but the market anticipates a substantial scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, leading to an optimistic long - term outlook. Inland coal - based methanol is undergoing short - term maintenance, reducing supply. Although the traditional downstream formaldehyde market is in a seasonal off - season, the开工 rates of MTBE and acetic acid are decent, indicating strong inland demand. As a result, the inventory build - up rate at inland methanol factories is slow, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - futures basis, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][10][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of inland coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][33] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's overall methanol production rate (including integrated plants) is provided [35][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides data on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, and other regions [39][45][48] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [55][57]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the silicon iron and manganese silicon industries are both "shockingly strong due to the boost of macro - sentiment" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are expected to show a shockingly strong trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2508 and SiFe2509 are 5446 and 5436 respectively, up 166 from the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 8,955 and 274,236, and the open interests are 21,646 and 195,900. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2508 and MnSi2509 are 5712 and 5726 respectively, up 96 and 102. Their trading volumes are 6,962 and 305,351, and the open interests are 13,908 and 382,828 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 38.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.2), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 08 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 346 yuan/ton (down 166), the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon is - 226 yuan/ton (down 102). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2508 - 2509 is 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and that of manganese silicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (up 4). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 266 yuan/ton (down 70), and that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 290 yuan/ton (down 64) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was reported, with Inner Mongolia's price range of 5100 - 5150 (down 50). The price range of 75 silicon iron was also reported. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron were 1000 - 1030 and 1080 - 1110 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), and in the south was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 50) [2] - According to the latest data from the South African Trade Statistics Bureau, South Africa's manganese ore exports in May were 2,429,691 tons, a slight increase of 0.82% month - on - month and a slight decrease of 6.14% year - on - year. From January to May 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% compared with 9.92 million tons in the same period last year, reaching a new high in the past 8 years [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]