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硅铁:板块情绪共振,宽幅震荡,锰硅,矿端情绪挺价,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) is expected to experience wide - range oscillations, with Silicon iron affected by sector sentiment resonance and ferromanganese supported by price - holding sentiment at the ore end [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5588, up 62 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 165,588 and an open interest of 162,088. Silicon iron 2605 closed at 5654, up 62, with a trading volume of 3,798 and an open interest of 10,807 [1] - Ferromanganese 2601 closed at 5820, up 60, with a trading volume of 213,766 and an open interest of 354,763. Ferromanganese 2605 closed at 5878, up 64, with a trading volume of 15,756 and an open interest of 45,381 [1] - **Spot Data** - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of ferromanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data** - The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 01 futures) was - 368 yuan/ton, down 62. The spot - futures spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, down 60 [1] - The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2601 - 2605 was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] - The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 232 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 224 yuan/ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Coal and Coke News** - On November 6th, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal, the raw material for semi - coke, was 720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The auction volume was 7.8 tons, down 2.8 tons. The average transaction price was 783.36 yuan/ton, up 78.39 yuan/ton. The lowest auction price was 773 yuan/ton, and the highest was 790 yuan/ton [1] - **Ferroalloy Price News** - On November 10th, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 (+50), in Ningxia 5200 - 5250, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 (+25), in Gansu 5150 - 5250, and in Inner Mongolia 5150 - 5250. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5700, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5650 - 5700, and in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 (-10), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Ferroalloy Tendering News** - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 16,000 tons of ferromanganese in November, 500 tons less than in October. The tender notice for 75B silicon iron was for 2716 tons, 240 tons less than in October [3] - **Ferroalloy Production News** - From January to October 2025, the total national production of ferromanganese was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia producing 438.51 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the national total. There are currently 28 operating factories in Inner Mongolia, and 13 have new production capacities, which are expected to be launched from November 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026. The current monthly production of ferromanganese in the factories to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026 is about 16.1 million tons, and the subsequent new monthly production is expected to be about 25.9 million tons. Over 90% of the new production capacity is for 6517 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of ferromanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [4]
硅铁:板块情绪与供需扰动,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:14
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2601 is 5526, up 26 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 118,520 and an open interest of 158,005; SiFe2605 has a closing price of 5604, up 38, a trading volume of 2,227, and an open interest of 8,437. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2601 has a closing price of 5794, up 22, a trading volume of 161,410, and an open interest of 350,214; MnSi2605 has a closing price of 5846, up 30, a trading volume of 11,640, and an open interest of 42,056 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day), manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - January futures spread of silicon ferroalloy is - 276 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton), that of manganese ferroalloy is - 144 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton). The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) is - 78 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and that of manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) is - 52 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton). The cross - variety spread of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 is 268 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton), and that of MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 242 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [1]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: On November 3, 2025, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), in Qinghai is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Gansu is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Ningxia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the southern quotation is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electricity Price and Market**: In October 2025, the electricity price for silicon ferroalloy production in Qinghai was settled. The off - peak electricity price is 0.375 - 0.42 yuan/kWh, and the full - load electricity price is 0.43 - 0.44 yuan/kWh, up 3 - 6 cents, resulting in an inverted cost situation. The futures market opened lower and rose slightly, and the factory market price in the morning was relatively stable [1]. - **Production Forecast**: From January to October 2025, the total production of silicon manganese was about 9.0396 million tons, with 6517 silicon manganese accounting for 88.4% of the total. The production from April to June was at a low level, and it has rebounded significantly since July. It is expected that the production of 6517 silicon manganese will continue to increase from November to December, and the monthly production may exceed 900,000 tons. The production and proportion of medium - and high - silicon silicon manganese are slowly rising, mainly due to new production capacity and the conversion from 6517 production. The demand for special medium - silicon silicon manganese from downstream stainless - steel mills has increased significantly [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
硅铁:板块情绪与供需扰动,弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 03:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents a. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy futures, SiFe2601 closed at 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 151,902 and an open interest of 163,466; SiFe2605 closed at 5566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,745 and an open interest of 7,516. For manganese ferroalloy futures, MnSi2601 closed at 5772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, with a trading volume of 218,323 and an open interest of 352,439; MnSi2605 closed at 5816 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan, with a trading volume of 13,655 and an open interest of 39,646 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference for silicon ferroalloy (spot - 01 futures) was - 250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; for manganese ferroalloy, it was - 112 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The near - far month price difference for silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) was - 66 yuan/ton, and for manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference for MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 272 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 was 250 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On October 31st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (+25), in Gansu 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (-10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1] - **Production Information**: In October, the production of manganese ferroalloy factories in Ningxia was basically unchanged, with individual factories switching from high - silicon silicon - manganese to 6517 at the end of the month, having little impact on production. The total production of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 21.07 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 19.97 million tons. In Inner Mongolia, some factories reduced production or switched production at the end of the month, while some resumed production after the National Day, with overall production still showing a slight increase. The total production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia in October was about 45.48 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 36.53 million tons. In October, there were 77 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in production nationwide, with 249 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The average monthly start - up rate of silicon ferroalloy in October was 50.83%, a slight decrease of 0.05% compared to September. The production was expected to be 48.9 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons compared to September, a growth rate of 2.13%, and a decrease of 0.55 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 459.6 million tons, an increase of 1.71 million tons compared to the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.37% [1][3] - **Inventory Information**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 377.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from the previous period; at Qinzhou Port, it was 47.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.76 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons with no inbound or outbound manganese ore this week; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. As of October 31st, the total manganese ore inventory was 425.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.81 million tons from the previous period [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]
硅铁:主产区报价松动,宽幅震荡,锰硅,锰矿港口报价下移,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:26
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The main产区 of ferrosilicon has seen a loosening in quotes, and it is in a wide - range shock. The port quotes of manganese ore for silicomanganese have moved down, and it is also in a wide - range shock [1] - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is both 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5378, down 28 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,807 and an open interest of 74,528. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5322, down 46, with a trading volume of 87,575 and an open interest of 173,437. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5726, down 8, with a trading volume of 8,789 and an open interest of 21,570. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5738, down 8, with a trading volume of 133,881 and an open interest of 382,892 [1] Spot - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [1] Price Differences - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 228 yuan/ton, down 22. The basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 88 yuan/ton, up 8. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 56 yuan/ton, up 18. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 was - 12 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 348 yuan/ton, up 20. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 was 416 yuan/ton, up 38 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 13, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 50). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (down 50), and in Inner Mongolia 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton (down 50). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1050 US dollars/ton (down 10), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1140 US dollars/ton (down 10). The northern quote of 6517 silicomanganese was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern quote was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [1] - The spot price of manganese ore at Tianjin Port: Australian block Mn46% was quoted at 41 - 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5), with a transaction price of around 41; Australian block Mn42% was quoted at 39.5 - 40 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5), with a transaction price of around 39.5; South African block was quoted at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, with a transaction price of around 34; Gabonese block was quoted at 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, with a transaction price of around 40. The manganese ore market is mainly affected by macro sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm. China's special port charges on US vessels have officially taken effect, but the proportion of vessels built or operated by the US in imported manganese ore vessels is relatively small [1][3]
硅铁:资金情绪博弈,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:46
Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The market for silicon iron and manganese silicon is characterized by capital - sentiment games and wide - range fluctuations [1]. Detailed Summaries Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the price range of 72 silicon iron was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton in Ningxia, etc.; 75 silicon iron prices increased, with a 20 - dollar/ton increase in FOB price for 75. Silicon manganese 6517 had different price changes in the north and south. The northern price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton (-50), and the southern price was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the silicon iron purchase price at 5850 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton lower than the previous round, with a quantity of 600 tons [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is also 0 [1]. Fundamental Data - For silicon iron futures contracts: the closing price of SiFe2511 was 5698 with a change of 5 compared to the previous trading day, and the volume was 244,716 with a position of 187,402; for SiFe2601, the closing price was 5666 with a change of 2, volume of 67,451, and position of 101,301 [2]. - For manganese silicon futures contracts: the closing price of MnSi2511 was 5864 with a change of 14 compared to the previous trading day, and the volume was 89,016 with a position of 93,273; for MnSi2601, the closing price was 5882 with a change of 12, volume of 246,470, and position of 335,174 [2]. - The spot - futures price differences, near - far month price differences, and cross - variety price differences for silicon iron and manganese silicon are also provided in the report [2].
债市情绪面周报(9月第2周):债市情绪仍在低位,看震荡者众-20250915
Huaan Securities· 2025-09-15 13:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].
硅铁:市场信息扰动,日内宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 04:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are disturbed by market information, showing wide - range intraday fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2511 closed at 5624, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 208,650 and an open interest of 222,047. Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5604, down 2, with a trading volume of 33,111 and an open interest of 96,724 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2511 closed at 5828, up 10, with a trading volume of 66,101 and an open interest of 107,056. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5842, up 10, with a trading volume of 138,956 and an open interest of 312,315 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of silicon iron: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue charcoal: small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The silicon iron spot - 11 futures spread was - 274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - 01 futures spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - The silicon iron 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The manganese silicon 2511 - silicon iron 2511 cross - variety spread was 204 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread was 238 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 28, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - Kangmilaou announced the offer of Gabon block to China in October 2025 at 4.27 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month. Some long - term agreement enterprises reported a decrease in the quantity of Gabon block. The stable overseas price is positive for the long - term cost support of manganese ore [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced the offer to China in October 2025. The offer of Australian block (Mn>46% Fe<6% SiO2<18%) was 4.57 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [3]. - On the 27th, Ningbo Iron and Steel set the price of silicon manganese at 6030 yuan/ton (acceptance and tax included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].
硅铁:板块情绪偏弱,宽幅震荡,锰硅:板块情绪偏弱,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:03
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯及苯乙烯港口库存同时回落-20250812
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 07:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]
股指期货:续持多单
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:06
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high. For stock index futures, it is recommended to continue holding long positions; for stock index options, it is advisable to appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term; for treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment is relatively warm [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Continue to hold long positions. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.47 points, - 1.51 points, - 38.14 points, and - 34.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.38 points, 0.31 points, - 7.57 points, and - 7.24 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.6 points, - 1.0 point, 73.0 points, and 78.0 points, with a month - on - month change of 3.2 points, - 0.4 point, 9.4 points, and 6.2 points. The total open interest changes are 7431 lots, 2077 lots, 3443 lots, and 4114 lots. The upward trend of the market has not changed. In August, the tone is still positive due to factors such as strong capital inflow, low probability of mid - report disappointment, and the weakening US dollar index. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term. The underlying market showed mixed trends and was in a volatile state. The trading volume of the options market was 6 billion and 60 million yuan, a 16.85% increase from the previous day. The sentiment indicators remained similar to the previous day, with the MO skew reaching a half - year high, indicating continued defensive sentiment in the small - cap segment. Volatility increased in small - cap and ChiNext stocks. It is recommended to continue the medium - term covered call strategy and reduce the short - term directional exposure of small - cap stocks [2][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warm. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rising by 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.05% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined. Although the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 12.25 billion yuan in the open market, the capital market remained loose. The central bank's 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation is beneficial to the bond market. However, the high market risk preference and potential factors such as the increase in long - term bond supply in the third quarter and the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies may have an impact on the bond market. Different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [3][10][11]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US factory orders in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2nd, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in July [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Export**: In the first seven months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase. The EU was the second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase. The US was the third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.42 trillion yuan, an 11.1% decrease. China's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 5.5% [13]. - **Retail and Commerce**: The Shanghai SASAC launched a campaign for the rejuvenation of local state - owned time - honored brands, aiming to promote brand development through various measures such as open cooperation, improving market - oriented operation mechanisms, and attracting professional talents [13]. - **Power**: Shandong Province issued a reform plan for the market - based on - grid electricity price of new energy, stating that the on - grid electricity of new energy projects such as wind and solar power will enter the power market, and the on - grid electricity price will be determined through market transactions [14]. - **Education**: The state - wide policy of exempting preschool education fees for all children in the senior class of kindergartens is expected to benefit about 12 million people this autumn [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the categories of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [15][19][31].