高盛：由于关税影响减弱和通胀回落，美联储可能会提前降息。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：通胀回落至目标水平并非注定的结果。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：周初伊朗对美军基地的打击一度提振避险需求，但随后伊以达成停火协议使得市场风险偏好 回升，黄金自高位回落。美国6月消费者信心指数意外下滑，一季度GDP出现三年来首次收缩，主要源于 消费支出和出口的大幅调整：消费支出仅增长0.5%，前估1.2%，创2020年暴跌以来最弱增速；出口增幅 从初值2.4%大幅下调至0.4%，仅被进口降幅收窄部分抵消，进口激增反映企业和消费者在关税政策出台 前囤积商品的抢出口行为。初请失业金人数虽优于预期但仍处高位，疲软数据强化市场对美联储政策转 向的预期。美联储官员表态出现分化，鲍曼等FOMC票委陆续释放鸽派降息信号，但鲍威尔仍维持"观望" 立场，强调需看到更多通胀回落证据才会考虑降息。美元指数受经济数据拖累走弱，美债收益率震 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of seven interest rate cuts starting in March 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75%, which is significantly lower than the current policy rate and earlier than most institutions expect [1][3]. Economic Growth and Inflation Trends - The prediction is based on the assessment of a downward trend in economic growth and a decline in inflation. Over the past two years, the Fed has maintained interest rates above 5% to combat persistent inflation, but with a cooling labor market and weakening core price increases, the monetary environment has tightened [3]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by 2026, the U.S. economy will experience a cyclical slowdown, leading to a decrease in potential output growth and a structural slowdown in investment, necessitating a swift shift to accommodative monetary policy to prevent a hard landing [3]. Inflation Cycle and Monetary Policy - The end of the inflation cycle may arrive sooner than the market expects. Despite Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on a temporary rise in inflation during the summer, trends in rent, healthcare, and commodity prices indicate that most price structures are entering a downward trajectory [3]. - If energy prices remain stable and labor supply improves, inflation expectations may stabilize over the next two years, providing the Fed with ample room to implement easing measures [3]. Neutral Interest Rate and Policy Adjustment - Morgan Stanley's forecast of a final interest rate midpoint of 2.5%-2.75% suggests that the U.S. neutral interest rate has not been permanently elevated due to temporary factors such as the pandemic or geopolitical issues. If this assessment holds, the Fed will need to gradually "return to normal" in the coming years, aligning policy rates with inflation targets [3]. Uncertainties and Market Reactions - The proposed path is not without uncertainties, including high U.S. fiscal deficits, ongoing global supply chain restructuring, and potential geopolitical tensions. If inflation becomes sticky in services and wages, or if financial markets react excessively to premature easing, the Fed may have to delay its adjustment pace [4]. - Morgan Stanley's expectations represent a "baseline scenario" rather than a rigid policy blueprint, indicating a shift in market sentiment from "higher for longer" to "lower and faster," which will directly impact bond markets, the U.S. dollar, and growth assets, becoming a core variable in financial markets over the next two years [4].

英国央行副行长拉姆斯登:我对通胀回落可能停滞的担忧不及其他成员那样强烈。 ...

英国央行副行长拉姆斯登：将劳动力市场放松视为"通胀回落"动力。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：油价波动不会影响通胀回落 金十数据6月24日讯，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，最近因以色列和伊朗之间的冲突而导致的大宗商品 价格波动不会改变欧元区的通胀前景。金多斯周二说："如果油价上涨——但看起来油价在某种程度上 得到了控制——这是我们必须考虑的问题。但通胀下降的过程是被锚定的。从我们今天看到的情况来 看，这个过程并没有脱轨，一点也没有。"金多斯称，官员们对消费价格的走势感到满意，消费价格的 增速已从创纪录高位回落至略低于欧洲央行2%的目标。虽然未来几个月仍有可能持续实现这一目标， 但他表示，伊朗局势给本已被全球贸易紧张局势所笼罩的背景又增添了一层复杂性。金多斯表示："我 们认为，我们稳定价格的使命将得到履行，但我们始终要考虑到，不确定性的程度是残酷的。这迫使我 们格外谨慎。" ...

英国央行货币政策委员格林：经济基本面疲软，劳动力市场进一步放松，通胀回落进程仍在持续。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade policies are expected to exert downward pressure on inflation in the UK [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, highlights the potential impact of trade policies on the UK economy [1]

土耳其央行：通胀预期和定价行为持续对通胀回落进程构成风险。 ...