Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will be held in Beijing from October 27 to 30, focusing on global financial development under the themes of innovation, transformation, and restructuring [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The forum is co-hosted by multiple governmental and financial institutions, including the People's Government of Beijing, the People's Bank of China, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - Over 400 key guests from more than 30 countries and regions are expected to attend the forum [1] Group 2: Forum Structure - The event will feature a framework of "main forum + parallel forums + financial technology conference + supporting activities" [1] - The opening ceremony is scheduled for the afternoon of October 27, while the closing ceremony will take place on the afternoon of October 30 [1] - A series of important financial policies will be announced during the forum [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.65% to 3828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.6% [3] - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.17 trillion yuan, with the broker ETF fund (515010) down by 0.36% and trading over 51 million yuan [3] - In August, the average daily trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained increase in market sentiment and trading activity, with active users of securities applications reaching 1.73 billion, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 27.26%, the highest since 2025 [3] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Securities, the national policy goals of "stabilizing growth and the stock market" and "boosting the capital market" will continue to influence the future direction of sectors, with a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved capital market conditions [4] - The PB valuation of the securities sector is at 1.42x as of September 19, 2025, which is in the 23.90% percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high safety margin and suggesting that it is a suitable time for sector allocation [4] - The broker ETF fund (515010) has various connection options available for investors, including multiple classes of the Huaxia CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF [4]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a positive trend, supported by ongoing capital market reforms and favorable financial policies, which are expected to enhance investor confidence and improve the overall market environment [6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index increased by 0.27%, with notable gains from Guojin Securities (3.07%), Guosheng Financial Holdings (2.07%), and China Galaxy (1.48%) [1]. - The securities ETF managed by Jiashi has seen a trading volume of 6.635 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.31% [3]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The Jiashi Securities ETF reached a new high in size at 506 million yuan and a record number of shares at 493 million [3]. - The ETF has recorded a net inflow of 2.5549 million yuan recently, with a total of 42.853 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [3]. - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.65% and an average return of 10.65% during rising months [3]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI All Share Securities Company Index is 19.73, indicating that it is at a historical low, being below 84.13% of the time over the past year [3]. Group 4: Sector Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Securities Company Index account for 60.56% of the index, with notable companies including Dongfang Fortune, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [4][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing capital market reforms and supportive financial policies are expected to stabilize and improve the securities sector, with a focus on enhancing investor confidence and expanding long-term capital [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the current low valuations of major brokerages present a favorable investment opportunity, particularly for those with strong fundamentals and high return on equity (ROE) [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts, specifically Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on international oil prices, indicating a shift in traditional energy security logic and the global oil pricing system [1][2][3]. Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the major oil export terminal Primorsk, which has a loading capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day, and the Kirishi refinery, processing about 355,000 barrels per day, representing 6.4% of Russia's total capacity [2][3]. - The attacks signify a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach, aiming to disrupt Russia's oil supply capabilities and enhance Western policy leverage against Russia [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the drone attacks and the Fed's expected rate cuts, international oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling at $63.30 per barrel, up 0.97%, and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, up 0.67% [1]. - The market is currently experiencing upward pressure from geopolitical risk premiums, while concerns about OPEC's production increases pose downward risks [5]. Financial Policy Implications - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to stimulate economic activity and potentially increase oil demand, with historical data indicating an average WTI price increase of 4.2% in the first month of a rate cut cycle [4][5]. - The IMF estimates that a 25 basis point rate cut could boost global oil consumption by 80,000 to 120,000 barrels per day [4]. Energy Security Dynamics - The article highlights a new paradigm in energy security, where military actions translate into market influence, suggesting that Ukraine's drone tactics could lead to a transformation in energy market assessments and the emergence of "algorithmic confrontation" logic [3][4]. - The combination of hard military strikes and soft policy pressures against Russia is expected to reshape the global energy supply chain and its valuation [4][5]. Future Outlook - The ongoing dynamics suggest a "scissors effect" in the oil market, with upward pressures from geopolitical risks and downward pressures from OPEC's idle production capacity of 4.2 million barrels per day [5]. - Monitoring the recovery of the Kirishi refinery and adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy will be crucial indicators for determining the oil price trajectory in Q4 [5].

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially launch its full island closure on December 18, 2025, enhancing trade and investment facilitation with global markets and improving the business environment for domestic and international enterprises [1][2] - The tax incentive policies under the Hainan Free Trade Port aim to establish a tax system compatible with high-level free trade ports, focusing on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, simplified tax systems, strong rule of law, and phased implementation" [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port is creating two bases: one for Chinese enterprises to access international markets and another for international companies to enter the Hainan market, fostering international business headquarters and attracting high-level talent [3] Group 2 - The financial policies of Hainan Free Trade Port include multi-functional free trade accounts, cross-border fund concentration operation centers, and financing leasing policies for aircraft and vessels, aimed at facilitating cross-border capital flow [2] - Various economic zones in Hainan, such as Haikou Jiangdong New District and Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City, are promoting investment opportunities in sectors like air economy, offshore trade, and deep-sea technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce is set to release new policies aimed at promoting service exports, focusing on fiscal, financial, regulatory, and international market development measures [1] Fiscal Policy - The government will leverage existing funding channels to enhance support for key areas and projects in service exports - The Service Trade Innovation Development Fund will be utilized to attract more social capital into service trade and digital trade sectors - The process for zero tax rate declaration for service exports will be optimized to improve export tax rebate efficiency [1] Financial Policy - There will be an increase in support for export credit insurance, with a focus on improving the precision of these policies - Financial services will be expanded for small and micro enterprises to enhance the convenience of insurance services [1] Regulatory Facilitation - The regulatory framework for bonded supervision will be improved - Measures will be taken to facilitate personnel exchanges and promote inbound consumption - The convenience of fund settlement for service trade will be enhanced, and there will be encouragement for intellectual property conversion and transaction - The cross-border flow of data will be promoted and standardized, with a focus on developing international data service businesses [1] International Market Development - The role of service trade intermediary organizations will be strengthened to assist enterprises in exploring international markets - Support will be provided for enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions [1]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,187.5, down 2.94%. The market sentiment declined after the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of the JM2601 contract. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,702.0, down 1.56%. The sixth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The hot metal output this period is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The hot metal is at a high level, and the coal mine - end inventory is no longer under pressure, with the inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1,187.50 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1,702.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 941,070.00 lots, up 51,646.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 51,445.00 lots, up 234.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 118,083.00 lots, down 7,855.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5,846.00 lots, up 162.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 152.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 68.00 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 996.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,510.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 18.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 112.50 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.40 million tons per day, up 0.40 million tons; clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 2.97 billion tons per week, up 89 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.37%, unchanged; raw coal output: 38.099 billion tons per month, down 4.0084 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3.561 billion tons per month, up 257 million tons; daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 4.4778 billion tons per week, down 152.7 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports: 2.6971 billion tons per week, down 38.4 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 9.7688 billion tons per week, down 110.4 million tons; all - sample coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 625.1 million tons per week, down 72.2 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 8.058 billion tons per week, down 28.6 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 6.098 billion tons per week, down 94.8 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, down 0.02 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 10.83 days per week, down 0.08 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 910.84 million tons per month, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89 million tons per month, up 38 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4.06438 billion tons per month, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 20 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton; coke output: 4.186 billion tons per month, up 15.7 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.57%, down 0.20%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7.966 billion tons per month, down 352.40 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump stated after meeting with Russian President Putin on the 15th that there is no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real estate construction will decline significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters, and even if only 10% is renovated annually, it will be 1 billion square meters [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant progress in green finance and taxation policies in China, with a total tax revenue from green taxes reaching 2.5 trillion yuan and a reduction in tax and fees amounting to 1.5 trillion yuan from 2021 to June 2023 [1] - The balance of green loans in both domestic and foreign currencies has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching 42.39 trillion yuan, marking a 14.4% increase since the beginning of the year, positioning China as the global leader in this area [1] - The dual-driven approach of fiscal and financial policies has effectively promoted green development, with the government implementing measures such as subsidies and tax incentives to encourage investments in renewable energy and clean technologies [1][2] Group 2 - Financial policies are acting as an "accelerator" to facilitate the transition of funds from high-pollution sectors to environmentally friendly and sustainable industries, with green finance being a key focus in national financial strategies [2] - China has established a comprehensive green finance policy system, leading the world in the development of green credit, bonds, and insurance, which supports the country's economic transition towards sustainability [2] - The integration of fiscal and financial policies is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of green initiatives, with proposed tax reductions and financial incentives for companies engaged in green finance [2][3] Group 3 - The effectiveness of fiscal and financial policies in promoting green initiatives relies on collaboration with industrial, regional, and environmental policies, creating a conducive environment for private capital to engage in green investments [3] - Strengthening environmental legislation and improving information disclosure systems are crucial for protecting investor rights and supporting a comprehensive policy framework for green development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, which has garnered significant attention from the market [1]. Summary by Categories Policy Types - The newly announced policies include a variety of measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, as well as targeted structural policies and a series of institutional reforms [1]. Economic Impact - The policies are designed to align with the broader context of high-quality economic development, maintaining a steady and precise approach that has characterized recent years [1]. - The introduction of these significant policies is expected to positively influence economic development and stabilize market expectations, leading to a potential upward trend in the capital market with prominent structural opportunities [1].

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]